2020 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread v2

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

https://twitter.com/JamesArkin/status/1255264363654656000?s=20
Interesting that AL/GA/TX/ are not on the list.

I guess they are waiting for the primaries to happen?

I mean obviously Doug Jones is going to lose (Biden would need to win the popular by 15 points, not happening lol) but I don't expect democrats to triage an incumbent running for reelection.

They should have learnt to do this after Heitkamp, Blanche etc.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Jon Hoadley (a candidate in MI-03) has commissioned a poll for his race and comparable races in the same district.

Sample size: 400 likely voters
MoE 4.9%
Sampling period: May 2-5

Hoadley 38%
Upton 37%
Undecided 25%

At the presidential level:

Biden 47%
Trump 44%

At the senatorial level:

Peters 40%
James 39%

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Yeah thats an awful poll for Eastman for an internal poll. I highly doubt Biden's carrying NE 2 by 11 points.

The DCCC weren't especially friendly to Eastman prior to her second nomination. I don't expect their polls for her (up to this point, at least) to be much friendlier than NRSC polls for Kobach.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Here's a DCCC poll for CA-25's regular election in November, conducted from May 6-May 10:
https://www.politico.com/newsletters/playbook/2020/05/14/a-sliver-of-good-news-for-republicans-489219

Smith 48%
Garcia 46%

It's worth noting every internal seen for the special election by Politico showed Smith behind.

In IA-04, a primary poll by American Viewpoint conducted for Randy Feenstra's campaign showed the following:
https://drive.google.com/file/d/12lTkIrwJXXkZko4R0aPdnzpNcy_dttZW/view
May 7-8
350 likely voters
MoE 5.2%

King 39% (-2 from Feenstra's last internal)
Feenstra 36% (+2 from Feenstra's last internal)
Others 9% (+1 from Feenstra's last internal)
Undecided 10% (-5 from Feenstra's last internal)

I'd say Feenstra's best hope is pushing King beneath 35% and triggering a runoff where he can unite the anti-King vote, but that looks unlikely at this point.

Edit: update: 538 have confirmed the DCCC poll was of 675 likely voters.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

WPA/Club for Growth (who've endorsed Victoria Spartz) polled the GOP primary (featuring Spartz) in IN-05:

https://www.clubforgrowth.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/CfGPAC_IN_CD5_PollingMemo_200514-10-28-17-314.pdf
MoE 4.9%
409 likely voters
May 11-13

Spartz 32%
Brizzi 14%
Henderson 13%
Beckwith 8%
Mitchell 5%
Dietzen 3%
Other 10%
Undecided 21%

First Tuesday Strategies, another Republican firm, have polled some GE challenges in SC-01:
https://www.firsttuesdaystrategies.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/CD1-Poll-May2020.pdf
MoE of 4.4%
500 likely voters
Fielded May 15-18

Generic D 31%
Generic R 50%
Other party 4%
Depends on the candidate 14%
Unsure 1%

Cunningham vs Landing
Cunningham 43%
Landing 45%
Someone else 4%
Undecided 8%

Cunningham vs Mace
Cunningham 44%
Mace 45%
Someone else 2%
Undecided 9%

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

I've found some Y2 analytics polls for UT-04 which I'm pretty sure have gone unnoticed here up until now:

Mar 21-30 polls:
https://utahpolicy.com/index.php/features/today-at-utah-policy/23599-poll-suggests-republican-race-in-4th-district-looks-to-be-a-wide-open-contest

Democratic primary
98 likely voters
MoE 9.9%

McAdams 97%
Beckstrand 3%

Beckstrand was eliminated at the convention shortly afterwards.

Republican primary
112 likely voters
MoE 9.3%

McFarland 31%
Owens 22%
Anderson 17%
Coleman 17%
Biesinger 6%
Christensen 6%
Thompson 1%

May 16-18 poll:
https://utahpolicy.com/index.php/features/today-at-utah-policy/23896-burgess-owens-leads-a-tight-four-way-race-for-the-gop-nomination-in-4th-congressional-district

Republican primary
148 likely voters
MoE 8.1%

Owens 36%
McFarland 28%
Coleman 23%
Christensen 13%

IIRC the rest of the Republican candidates were eliminated at their convention prior to the sampling dates of the May poll.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

We have an NY-15 poll from Data for Progress:
http://filesforprogress.org/memos/ny-15-2020-june.pdf

Sampling dates: May 21-24
Sample size: 323 likely voters

Diaz Sr 22%
Torres 20%
Blake 6%
Rodriguez 6%
Viverito 6%
Lopez 2%
Ortiz 1%
Pabon 1%
Ramos 1%
Undecided 34%

I think Torres narrowly pulls ahead by the end of all this, in part thanks to undecided voters breaking in his favour.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

NY-01 Democrat Primary (Fleming Internal):
https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1268386592118497281?s=20

I've unearthed a previous poll for NY-01:

https://www.newsday.com/opinion/newsday-opinion-the-point-newsletter-1.41950750
This is a GBAO strategies internal for Perry Gershon from January 27-30 this year (with a MoE of 4.4% and a sample size of 500 likely voters).

Gershon: 42%
Fleming: 21%
Gorroff: 9%

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

A GOP internal from last December for NM-02 was apparently released today. It shows Herrell +2, 48-46.
https://twitter.com/kirk_bado/status/1268033655932366849?s=20

am i missing something? why do they think a poll from December is relevant now?

It might be the last in which Torres-Small wasn't leading this candidate.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Dems are going to increase their seats in the House at this point.

The final result is often quoted as a consequence of D+9% environment, but wasn't it actually a D+7% environment because of the effects of uncontested seats? That is not going to show up in GCB polls this time.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/20200608_OK.pdf

Horn leads "Republican Challenger" 42-41. For reference, Biden is winning this seat 50-44 according to this poll.

A bad sign for her to be running behind Biden by 5 points. Trump did win her district by 13 points, so I would be surprised if Biden won it comfortably. However, maybe he could given it also had a strong trend in 2016.

Small subsample size (98 likely voters), so not too much to read into this.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Other Sanders endorsements today besides Charles Booker's:

Cori Bush (MO-1) - AOC hasn't supported her this time and Lacy Clay should win, but she is at least a serious challenger and he can't take the win for granted.
Samelys Lopez (NY-15) - HP move given how far behind she is and the risk of Diaz beating Torres, who is almost as progressive and even backed Sanders.
Jamaal Bowman (NY-16) - a sign of Engel continuing to lose control of his primary, I think.
Mondaire Jones (NY-17).
Mike Siegel (TX-10) - probably the frontrunner in his primary.

Romanoff has a lot of Colorado state legislature endorsements but the big name progressives out of state don't seem to care for him.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

https://beckygrossman.com/new-poll-shows-becky-grossman-lead-race-open-seat-ma-04
Beacon Research (R)/Becky Grossman Democrat for Congress internal

May 26-30
501 likely voters
MoE: 4%

Undecided 16%
Grossman 13%
Auchincloss 7%
Mermell 7%
Sigel 4%
Khazei 4%
Cavell 2%
Zannetos 1%
Other 1%

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

I've deleted the TN Senate poll as I found the old thread, but there are some old (and some new) primary polls that haven't been posted in here or elsewhere on the forum to my knowledge:

https://yellowhammernews.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/12/AL-CD-1-GOP-Primary-Poll-Memo-Carl-Nov.pdf
AL-01
Public Opinion Strategies (R)/Carl for Alabama

August 2019:

Hightower 27%
Pringle 14%
Carl 13%
Lambert 2%
Castorani N/A

November 18-19, 2019:
300 voters
MoE 5.66%

Hightower 29%
Carl 20%
Pringle 14%
Lambert 2%
Castorani 0%


https://www.clubforgrowth.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/CfGPAC_GA_CD7_PollingMemo_200513-1.pdf
GA-07
WPA Intelligence (R)/Club for Growth
April 14-15, 2020

McCormick 33%
Unterman 18%
Homrich 8%
Other candidates 6%
Undecided 35%

May 11-12, 2020
408 likely voters
MoE: 4.9%

McCormick 41%
Unterman 23%
Homrich 7%
Other candidates 5%
Undecided 24%


https://capitolfax.com/2020/02/05/mclaughlin-poll-oberweis-at-46-percent-in-five-way-primary/?link_id=57&can_id=c5a6a0dd9889d57e6cc1ac7836fa384c&source=email-morning-digest-competitive-race-to-succeed-longtime-gop-congressman-begins-to-take-shape&email_referrer=email_718713&email_subject=morning-digest-competitive-race-to-succeed-longtime-gop-congressman-begins-to-take-shape
IL-14
McLaughlin/Oberweis internal
January 28-29, 2020
300 likely voters
MoE: 5.6%

Oberweis 46%
Rezin 16%
Lauf 6%
Martel 2%
Gradel 2%
Undecided 29%


https://www.clubforgrowth.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/07/CFG_KY_4_Hybrid_Poll_Memo_190710.pdf
KY-04
WPA Intelligence/Club for Growth
July 8-9, 2019
400 likely voters
MoE: 4.9%

Massie 64%
Moser 10%
Undecided 26%

Definitely for Massie 50%
Definitely against Massie 8%
Would consider another candidate 36%
Don't know 7%

https://www.politico.com/f/?id=00000171-2116-d911-aff1-afd7352d0000
KY-04
Public Opinion Strategies (R)/Massie Internal
February 4 - 6, 2020
300 voters
MoE: 5.66%

Massie 71%
McMurty 3%


https://www.clubforgrowth.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/CFG_KY4_PollingMemo_2004291.pdf
KY-04
WPA Intelligence/Club for Growth
April 27-28, 2020
407 likely voters
MoE: 4.9%

Massie 70%
McMurty 13%
Undecided 17%


https://www.santafenewmexican.com/news/local_news/plames-cd3-campaign-moves-forward-despite-convention-loss/article_61b6d10c-62de-11ea-a604-17ef9da1c2e2.html
NM-03
Anzalone Liszt Grove Research/Plame internal
February 11-16, 2020
500 likely voters

Plame 21%
Fernandez 11%
Serna 7%

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1197407453568290817
NY-02
WPA Intelligence (R)/Club for Growth
November 17-18, 2019
400 likely voters

Lara Trump 53%
Lazio 19%
Undecided 28%


https://www.scribd.com/document/421294082/nypoll
NY-27
Tel Opinion
July 31 - August 1, 2019
500 voters

Collins 46%
Jacobs 26%
Parlato 4%

Bellavia 33%
Jacobs 24%
Mychajliw 6%
Hawley 5%
Ortt 5%
Parlato 2%

Bellavia 41%
Jacobs 27%
Parlato 6%

Jacobs 39%
Mychajliw 6%
Parlato 6%


https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1229629088975015936
PA-10
GBAO Strategies/De Pasquale internal
Feb 5-9, 2020

DePasquale 68%
Brier 16%

https://www.politico.com/f/?id=0000016f-a0e1-d209-a1ef-a4ffbdd10000
TX-12
Remington/Congressional Leadership Fund
December 17-18, 2019
686 likely voters
MoE: 3.7%

Granger 62%
Putnam 16%
Undecided 22%

https://bigtreepac.com/big-tree-pac-polling-memo/
TX-32
Optimus/Big Tree PAC
January 28-30, 2020
971 likely voters
MoE: 3.3%

(With leaners)
Collins 14.1%
McLendon 9.6%
Tokar 2%
Sackett 1.4%
Hollis 1.1%
Undecided 72%

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

WPA Intelligence (R)/Club for Growth
November 17-18, 2019
400 likely voters

Lara Trump 53%
Lazio 19%
Undecided 28%

What?

Neither are running, but they polled it as a hypothetical. The Trump dynasty would seem to have at least one easy glide path to Congress.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

https://utahpolicy.com/index.php/features/today-at-utah-policy/23908-bob-stevenson-takes-lead-in-republican-contest-to-replace-rob-bishop-in-congress

UT-01 Republican primary poll
Y2 Analytics/UtahPolicy/KUTV News
May 16-18, 2020
127 likely primary voters
MoE: 8.7%

Stevenson 38%
Witt 26%
Gibson 20%
Moore 16%

Edit: another one!

https://www.standard.net/news/government/poll-in-u-s-house-race-shows-tight-race-among-gopers-many-still-undecided/article_1983d360-4b93-5d7f-b8ef-2bb414df99f1.html
Dan Jones & Associates/Elect Blake Moore (internal)
June 2-9, 2020
417 likely voters
Moore 16%
Stevenson 16%
Gibson 13%
Witt 7%
Undecided 48%

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

NY-24 Democratic Primary

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1272293208236740608
GBAO Strategies/Dana Balter internal poll
June 4-7, 2020

Dana Balter 60%
Francis Conole 31%

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Moving this over to the correct thread:

NY-01 Democratic Primary poll
https://drive.google.com/file/d/18mQUAfqwAohyjXPRnAuIjQXM7qgPzsR9/view

Global Strategy Group/Nancy Goroff internal
May 26-28, 2020
401 likely voters
MoE: 4.9%

Gershon 29%
Goroff 27%
Fleming 17%
Fischer 1%

"Early April" results

Gershon 33%
Fleming 16%
Goroff 11%
Fischer 1%

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

KY-04 R primary poll
https://www.clubforgrowth.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/CfGPAC_KY_CD4_BrushfireSummary_200612.pdf
WPA Intelligence/Club for Growth
June 10-11, 2020
411 likely Republican primary voters
MoE: 4.9%

Massie 77%
McMurty 11%
Undecided 12%

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

http://filesforprogress.org/datasets/2020/6/ak_house_poll/AK_House_Poll.pptx
AK-at-large
Data for Progress
May 21-27, 2020
589 likely voters
MoE: 4%

Alyse Galvin 43%
Don Young 42%
Undecided 15%

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

FiveThirtyEight's put up a congressional poll done by ALG research for a partisan client in MI-03

June 3-7, 2020
589 likely voters
MoE not given

Hillary Scholten  (D) 40%
Lynn Afendoulis  (R) 40%

Hillary Scholten (D) 40%
Peter Meijier (R) 39%

Edit: this poll was a Hillary Scholten internal. Link: https://twitter.com/kirk_bado/status/1272888027669561349

Edit 2: the MoE has been given by Politico (it's 4.4%).

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

FiveThirtyEight's put up a congressional poll done by ALG research for a partisan client in MI-03

June 3-7, 2020
589 likely voters
MoE not given

Hillary Scholten  (D) 40%
Lynn Afendoulis  (R) 40%

Hillary Scholten (D) 40%
Peter Meijier (R) 39%

Edit: this poll was a Hillary Scholten internal. Link: https://twitter.com/kirk_bado/status/1272888027669561349

Is Amash not running?

Not in the Republican primary, unless he intends to file as a write-in candidate.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

https://twitter.com/kirk_bado/status/1273352072407195654

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

https://www.anselm.edu/sites/default/files/Documents/NHIOP/Polls/June%202020%20Survey.pdf
Saint Anselm College (NH) generic ballot
June 13-16, 2020

Statewide:
1072 likely voters
MoE 3%

D 46%
R 43%
Other 2%
Undecided 8%

CD1:
567 likely voters
MoE 4.1%

D 48%
R 42%
Other 2%
Undecided 8%

CD2:
505 likely voters
MoE 4.4%

D 44%
R 44%
Other 3%
Undecided 9%

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

538's released another internal, this one for Dan Feehan for Congress from Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group:

Sampling period: June 9-13, 2020
Sample size: 601 likely voters
MoE not yet given

Dan Feehan 43%
Jim Hagedorn 42%

I suspect its weightings don't account for slightly depopulated suburbia in parts of the Twin Cities near where riots took place.

Edit: full details released here: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1V-IsvPR5K26cm_lLtH9uJKuWiwDvtBm0/view

MoE: 4.1%

Undecided 15%