2020 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread v2

[wbrocks67]

USC Dornsife
Dems 51.5 (+0.5)
Reps 43.5 (-0.

[VAR]

Generic ballot - Yahoo! News/YouGov

D 49-38 (nc)

https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/c97p828als/20200911_yahoo_coronavirus_crosstabs.pdf

[Ferguson97]

Generic ballot - Yahoo! News/YouGov

D 49-38 (nc)

https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/c97p828als/20200911_yahoo_coronavirus_crosstabs.pdf

An incumbent polling at 38% less than two months before the election is... something else

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

https://twitter.com/FloridaDude297/status/1304549147266158595

yeye

[VAR]

Generic ballot - USC/Dornsife

Democrat 51.6% (+0.1)
Republican 43.8% (+0.3)

https://election.usc.edu/

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

https://twitter.com/FloridaDude297/status/1304549147266158595

yeye

I hope you know that guy literally just makes sh*t up.

[VAR]

Generic ballot - USC Dornsife

Democratic 51% (-1)
Republican 45% (+1)

https://election.usc.edu/

[VAR]

CO generic ballot* - GSG (D)

Democrat 50% (+2)
Republican 40%

https://www.globalstrategygroup.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/CO-Mountaineer-Q3-Survey-Topline-F09.03.20.pdf

* “state legislature” generic ballot which isn’t that different than the GCB.

2018: D+10

[VAR]

Generic ballot - USC/Dornsife

Democrat 50.7% (nc)
Republican 44.9% (+0.3)

https://election.usc.edu/

[VAR]

Cook Political Report: CA-50 moves to Likely R.

[Virginiá]

Generic ballot - USC/Dornsife

Democrat 50.7% (nc)
Republican 44.9% (+0.3)

https://election.usc.edu/

Given the intense polarization and the ensuing party-line voting we've had up to now, it's hard to believe this of all elections would have that level of ticket splitting.

[Mr.Phips]

Generic ballot - USC/Dornsife

Democrat 50.7% (nc)
Republican 44.9% (+0.3)

https://election.usc.edu/

Given the intense polarization and the ensuing party-line voting we've had up to now, it's hard to believe this of all elections would have that level of ticket splitting.

The national House vote will likely end up the same margin as the Presidential popular vote.

[Annatar]

Generic ballot - USC/Dornsife

Democrat 50.7% (nc)
Republican 44.9% (+0.3)

https://election.usc.edu/

Given the intense polarization and the ensuing party-line voting we've had up to now, it's hard to believe this of all elections would have that level of ticket splitting.

The national House vote will likely end up the same margin as the Presidential popular vote.

I doubt it, in the 3 past elections there has been a 3% spread between the House and presidential vote, in 2008, the presidential vote was D+7.2, the house was D+10.6, s 3.4% difference. In 2012, the presidential vote was D+3.9, the house was D+1.2, a 2.7% difference, in 2016, the presidential vote was D+2.1, the house was R+1.1, a 3.2% difference.

I think there will be a 3% difference this time, the only question is which way it goes.

[Virginiá]

Easy to see a difference considering that there are almost always imbalances in contested/uncontested House races. Also, some races just have stronger incumbents and/or weaker challengers, which may lead to the party not maximizing their potential in the district.

I'd actually find it surprising if it were to exactly match the presidential margin, but I expect it to strongly correlate. Enough so that you can say that people mostly vote for parties now, not candidates.

[Person Man]

So there's a scenario where Biden loses they way Hillary does but Pelosi still holds the house.

[Mr.Phips]

So there's a scenario where Biden loses they way Hillary does but Pelosi still holds the house.

I think it’d be likely.  Trump would probably need to win the popular vote for Republicans to take the House.

[Pollster]

Easy to see a difference considering that there are almost always imbalances in contested/uncontested House races. Also, some races just have stronger incumbents and/or weaker challengers, which may lead to the party not maximizing their potential in the district.

I'd actually find it surprising if it were to exactly match the presidential margin, but I expect it to strongly correlate. Enough so that you can say that people mostly vote for parties now, not candidates.

Yeah, particularly in 2008, when states like Arkansas, Mississippi, North Dakota, and South Dakota barely produced any Republican House votes and Dems won the House PV in Tennessee and West Virginia, mostly due to non-serious/no challengers in states McCain won handily.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

So there's a scenario where Biden loses they way Hillary does but Pelosi still holds the house.

This scenario occurs in most of the narrow Trump wins where he's only ahead thanks to 1 or 2 states, IMO.

[Person Man]

So there's a scenario where Biden loses they way Hillary does but Pelosi still holds the house.

This scenario occurs in most of the narrow Trump wins where he's only ahead thanks to 1 or 2 states, IMO.

Basically 2016 redux. I think Republicans can win the House in a Trump popular vote victory, but that's about it. A Trump popular vote victory will be seen as an R wave.

[Arkansas Yankee]

I almost gave you a hint to something that might be hurting your candidates.  But I decided not to alert.   I need to let the assistance continue..

[VAR]

Generic ballot - USC/Dornsife

Democrat 50.2% (-0.5)
Republican 45.4% (+0.5)

https://election.usc.edu/

[VAR]

GCB - YouGov/Economist: D 48-41 (no change)

[VAR]

CA GCB - Public Policy Institute of California

Democrat 60% (+1)
Republican 33% (-1)

8 competitive districts (4, 10, 21, 22, 25, 39, 48, 50) (n=141):

Republican 54% (+10)
Democrat 42% (-10)

Trump leads 50/47

https://www.ppic.org/wp-content/uploads/ppic-statewide-survey-californians-and-their-government-september-2020.pdf

In 2018, they had D 55-37, and Republicans leading by 5 points in 4, 7, 10, 16, 21, 25, 39, 45, 48, 49, 50. Democrats ended up winning them 52-48.

[Landslide Lyndon]

8 competitive districts (4, 10, 21, 22, 25, 39, 48, 50) (n=141):

Republican 54% (+10)
Democrat 42% (-10)

LMAO!

[VAR]

Generic ballot - USC/Dornsife

Democrat 49.9% (-0.3)
Republican 45.8% (+0.4)

https://election.usc.edu/