2020 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread v2

[wbrocks67]

8 competitive districts (4, 10, 21, 22, 25, 39, 48, 50) (n=141):

Republican 54% (+10)
Democrat 42% (-10)

LMAO!

yeah this is the same thing as the Monmouth poll of PA that had like n=100 for the swing districts. it's not even worth it to post it in the poll, i dont get why they do

[ElectionsGuy]

Generic ballot - USC/Dornsife

Democrat 49.9% (-0.3)
Republican 45.8% (+0.4)

https://election.usc.edu/

This thread has gotten awfully quiet.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Generic ballot - USC/Dornsife

Democrat 49.9% (-0.3)
Republican 45.8% (+0.4)

https://election.usc.edu/

This thread has gotten awfully quiet.

Now that polls have been moved into their own thread, there's not a lot happening in these categories except for the occasional generic ballot update.  Recruitment is a closed book, and fundraising reports and rating changes are infrequent events.

[Gracile]

There will be three Cook House rating changes tomorrow, including one that would have "shocked" Wasserman a month ago:

https://twitter.com/redistrict/status/1306695570220875777

Any guesses on what the three districts will be? I think TX-03 to Tossup is pretty likely for the shock change.

[GeorgiaModerate]

There will be three Cook House rating changes tomorrow, including one that would have "shocked" Wasserman a month ago:

https://twitter.com/redistrict/status/1306695570220875777
Any guesses on what the three districts will be? I think TX-03 to Tossup is pretty likely for the shock change.

That's a good guess.  Maybe CO-03?

[VAR]

MI-03 to Tossup is very likely IMO.

[lfromnj]

Rating TX03 tossup based on one internal still showing the incumbent up is a bit bold

[LimoLiberal]

There will be three Cook House rating changes tomorrow, including one that would have "shocked" Wasserman a month ago:

https://twitter.com/redistrict/status/1306695570220875777

Any guesses on what the three districts will be? I think TX-03 to Tossup is pretty likely for the shock change.

You guys are reading this wrong. Wasserman loves to troll his heavily Democratic following, and what's changed drastically in the last month? Have things gotten significantly better for Democrats?  No, although they're still clearly in the driver's seat. I bet the "shock" will be a seat that Democrats expected to win shifting right. Considering Wasserman's fixation on Biden's weakness with Democrats in the Rio Grande Valley, I would put $10 on the "shock" being TX-23 moving from Lean D to Tossup. This is backed up by both parties putting millions of dollars down in ad reservations in the El Paso and San Antonio markets.

[Gracile]

There will be three Cook House rating changes tomorrow, including one that would have "shocked" Wasserman a month ago:

https://twitter.com/redistrict/status/1306695570220875777

Any guesses on what the three districts will be? I think TX-03 to Tossup is pretty likely for the shock change.

You guys are reading this wrong. Wasserman loves to troll his heavily Democratic following, and what's changed drastically in the last month? Have things gotten significantly better for Democrats?  No, although they're still clearly in the driver's seat. I bet the "shock" will be a seat that Democrats expected to win shifting right. Considering Wasserman's fixation on Biden's weakness with Democrats in the Rio Grande Valley, I would put $10 on the "shock" being TX-23 moving from Lean D to Tossup. This is backed up by both parties putting millions of dollars down in ad reservations in the El Paso and San Antonio markets.

That wouldn't surprise me that Wasserman would make a (misguided) rating change in TX-23 to Tossup - possibly while also moving TX-03 to Tossup. I only mentioned TX-03 since Wasserman was harping on today about its potential as a sleeper pickup due to it has a demographic profile not unlike districts that have trended heavily D in our current alignment (it's the GOP district with the highest percentage of college graduates).

[Gracile]

It's not TX-03, actually:

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1306741169708306432

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Sadly, I don't think the 3 race changes will include a Texas district. And if so, probably one of the 'obvious' ones like 7/23/24/32.

I'll go with CO-3 or some midwest district being the "shocker". I don't think it'll match the suspense

[VAR]

LOL VA-05 moves to Tossup

ME-02 to Lean D
CO-03 to Lean R

[wbrocks67]

LOL VA-05 moves to Tossup

ME-02 to Lean D
CO-03 to Lean R

Good is raising no $$ and not consolidating Rs there. I don't think I'd have it at Tossup personally but it's clear Good is flailing and it's a very attainable race for Webb

[VAR]

LOL VA-05 moves to Tossup

ME-02 to Lean D
CO-03 to Lean R

Good is raising no $$ and not consolidating Rs there. I don't think I'd have it at Tossup personally but it's clear Good is flailing and it's a very attainable race for Webb

I agree. Webb is running a great campaign, but still VA-05 is a tough district for Democrats.

[Annatar]

Democrats lead in the 538 generic ballot is down to 6.2%, if Republicans can run say 3% ahead of their 2018 house vote number they will flip a moderate number of seats. The only way Republicans wouldn’t gain seats if they did a few points better then 2018 in the house vote is if they just gain in safe Republican and Democratic seats and not in the 50/50 seats which is unlikely.

[MaxQue]

Democrats lead in the 538 generic ballot is down to 6.2%, if Republicans can run say 3% ahead of their 2018 house vote number they will flip a moderate number of seats. The only way Republicans wouldn’t gain seats if they did a few points better then 2018 in the house vote is if they just gain in safe Republican and Democratic seats and not in the 50/50 seats which is unlikely.

That's discounting double incumbency (loss of the Republican incumbent vote + gain of a incumbent vote for Democrats),

[Annatar]

Democrats lead in the 538 generic ballot is down to 6.2%, if Republicans can run say 3% ahead of their 2018 house vote number they will flip a moderate number of seats. The only way Republicans wouldn’t gain seats if they did a few points better then 2018 in the house vote is if they just gain in safe Republican and Democratic seats and not in the 50/50 seats which is unlikely.

That's discounting double incumbency (loss of the Republican incumbent vote + gain of a incumbent vote for Democrats),

Incumbency didn’t seem to let Republicans outperform the generic ballot in 2018 though, the Republicans held more seats but they didn’t outperform the generic ballot due to an incumbency advantage.

[Gracile]

Inside Elections made six rating changes today:

https://insideelections.com/ratings/house/2020-house-ratings-september-18-2020

Toward Democrats
AR-02 (R, Hill): Likely R to Lean R
KS-03 (D, Davids): Lean D to Likely D
ME-02 (D, Golden): Tilt D to Lean D
TX-32 (D, Allred): Lean D to Likely D

Toward Republicans
CA-25 (R, Garcia): Tilt D to Tossup
FL-26 (D, Mucarsel-Powell): Tilt D to Tossup

[wbrocks67]

NBC/WSJ has GCB at D+7, 49-42

https://assets.documentcloud.org/documents/7213809/200625-NBCWSJ-September-Poll.pdf

[Landslide Lyndon]

https://twitter.com/Meg_Cunn/status/1307539029932597251

[wbrocks67]

Civiqs tracker is stable thru 9/19, with Ds up 8, 51-43

https://civiqs.com/results/vote_house_generic_2020?uncertainty=true&annotations=true&zoomIn=true

[GeorgiaModerate]

Crystal Ball ratings changes:

https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/21000/

ME-02 EV: Lean R to Tossup

ME-Sen: Tossup to Lean D

SC-Sen: Likely R to Lean R

[Gass3268]

Looks like the Dems feel good about Golden and Cartwright.

https://twitter.com/MediumBuying/status/1308092060751331329?s=20

https://twitter.com/MediumBuying/status/1308113155260899328?s=20

[Benjamin Frank]

When do the next fundraising totals come out?  I know they're quarterly up to June, but I would have thought with the election this close, the requirement might have changed to monthly.

Waiting until approximately October 15 for the next fundraising figures update seems a bit late to me.

[wbrocks67]

When do the next fundraising totals come out?  I know they're quarterly up to June, but I would have thought with the election this close, the requirement might have changed to monthly.

Waiting until approximately October 15 for the next fundraising figures update seems a bit late to me.

a bunch of the senate candidates have been releasing monthly totals, so hopefully we get monthly for September along with the quarter