2020 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread v2

[Roll Roons]

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/08/31/house-democrats-super-pac-ads-405557

House Majority PAC (D) adding $11M in new reservations:
— Atlanta: $1.3 million (GA-06, GA-07)
— Bakersfield, Calif.: $75,000 (CA-21)
— Binghamton, N.Y.: $65,000 (NY-22)
— Cedar Rapids, Iowa: $300,000 (IA-01)
— Cincinnati: $1 million (OH-01)
— Fresno, Calif.: $100,000 (CA-21)
— Indianapolis: $1 million (IN-05)
— La Crosse, Wis.: $175,000 (WI-03)
— Los Angeles: $3.2 milion (CA-25, CA-39, CA-48)
— Mankato, Minn.: $200,000 (MN-01)
— New York City: $120,000 (NJ-07, NY-02, NY-11)
— Philadelphia: $1.3 million (NJ-02, NJ-03, PA-01)
— Rochester, Minn.: $300,000 (MN-01)
— Salt Lake City: $340,000 (UT-04)
— Savannah, Ga.: $315,000 (SC-01)
— St. Louis: $1.3 million (IL-13, MO-02)
— Utica, N.Y.: $135,000 (NY-22)

[AncestralDemocrat.]

https://twitter.com/Elections_Daily/status/1300457406388994050?s=19

[politicallefty]

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/08/31/house-democrats-super-pac-ads-405557

House Majority PAC (D) adding $11M in new reservations:
— Atlanta: $1.3 million (GA-06, GA-07)
— Bakersfield, Calif.: $75,000 (CA-21)
— Binghamton, N.Y.: $65,000 (NY-22)
— Cedar Rapids, Iowa: $300,000 (IA-01)
— Cincinnati: $1 million (OH-01)
— Fresno, Calif.: $100,000 (CA-21)
— Indianapolis: $1 million (IN-05)
— La Crosse, Wis.: $175,000 (WI-03)
— Los Angeles: $3.2 milion (CA-25, CA-39, CA-48)
— Mankato, Minn.: $200,000 (MN-01)
— New York City: $120,000 (NJ-07, NY-02, NY-11)
— Philadelphia: $1.3 million (NJ-02, NJ-03, PA-01)
— Rochester, Minn.: $300,000 (MN-01)
— Salt Lake City: $340,000 (UT-04)
— Savannah, Ga.: $315,000 (SC-01)
— St. Louis: $1.3 million (IL-13, MO-02)
— Utica, N.Y.: $135,000 (NY-22)

I'd have to imagine most of the Los Angeles money is going to reclaim CA-25. I can't imagine much is going to CA-39 as Gil Cisneros is very rich and can self-fund.

Nothing really surprising here. It all makes sense, but this is Pelosi's super-PAC and she's not stupid. There's a decent amount of defense, but a lot of offense as well. That's exactly what House Democrats should be doing, keeping the incumbents propped up and trying to expand the majority. But what exactly does $120k get you in the NYC media market, lol?

[VAR]

Generic ballot: PA - Global Strategy Group (D)

Democratic 51%
Republican 44%

https://www.climatepower2020.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/23/2020/08/CP2020-Pennsylvania-Memo-08.26.20.pdf

[politicallefty]

I'll repost what I said in the other topic:

That's not a great result on the generic ballot. Democrats won by 10% in 2018, although Republicans didn't run a candidate in Mike Doyle's Pittsburgh district. I suppose that could've narrowed it to 8-9% if they fielded a candidate. Democrats almost certainly need to be doing better than +7% in PA on the generic ballot if there's any chance to win PA-01 or PA-10.

[wbrocks67]

I'll repost what I said in the other topic:

That's not a great result on the generic ballot. Democrats won by 10% in 2018, although Republicans didn't run a candidate in Mike Doyle's Pittsburgh district. I suppose that could've narrowed it to 8-9% if they fielded a candidate. Democrats almost certainly need to be doing better than +7% in PA on the generic ballot if there's any chance to win PA-01 or PA-10.

Depends. Trump could be hurting the ballot a bit in PA-07 or PA-08 while helping it in PA-01. There's also some more rural districts that may more R this year, which could also be offset with suburbs getting even bluer than 2018. It's pretty fluid, so kind of hard to really point one way or the other.

[kph14]

I'll repost what I said in the other topic:

That's not a great result on the generic ballot. Democrats won by 10% in 2018, although Republicans didn't run a candidate in Mike Doyle's Pittsburgh district. I suppose that could've narrowed it to 8-9% if they fielded a candidate. Democrats almost certainly need to be doing better than +7% in PA on the generic ballot if there's any chance to win PA-01 or PA-10.

Also Dems really overperformed in PA-16 in 2018. Don't expect that to happen again

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

WA-10

http://stricklandforwashington.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/GQRSurveyMemoGeneral1.pdf

GQR Research/Strickland for Washington (Strickland internal)
August 24-28, 2020
400 likely voters
MoE: 4.9%

Strickland 43%
Doglio 22%
Undecided 35%

[Roll Roons]

Chamber of Commerce is endorsing a bunch of House Democrats, including several vulnerable freshmen:

https://twitter.com/politicoalex/status/1300798594660945920

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

MT-01

https://nmcdn.io/e186d21f8c7946a19faed23c3da2f0da/7c9798eaafd54081881797bf9a163295/files/research/MT-AL-poll-083120.pdf

Expedition Strategies/House Majority PAC (D)
August 22-27, 2020
400 likely voters
MoE: 4.9%

With leaners:
Williams 51%
Rosendale 48%
Don't know 1%

[Landslide Lyndon]

Chamber of Commerce is endorsing a bunch of House Democrats, including several vulnerable freshmen:

https://twitter.com/politicoalex/status/1300798594660945920

What's more impressive is that few of them can be called centrists.

[Gracile]

MT-01

https://nmcdn.io/e186d21f8c7946a19faed23c3da2f0da/7c9798eaafd54081881797bf9a163295/files/research/MT-AL-poll-083120.pdf

Expedition Strategies/House Majority PAC (D)
August 22-27, 2020
400 likely voters
MoE: 4.9%

With leaners:
Williams 51%
Rosendale 48%
Don't know 1%

The presidential topline makes me think this poll might be a touch D-friendly, though it's good for Williams that she's overperforming Biden in this sample.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

https://rickkennedyforcongress.com/2020/09/01/kennedy-within-margin-of-error-in-race-against-sessions-biden-trump-are-in-a-dead-heat-in-race-for-president-among-cd-17-voters/

Conducted "last week" (August 24-30?)
1160 likely voters

Pete Sessions 45%
Rick Kennedy 42%
Undecided 13%

The margin of error is at least 3 % as Kennedy is said to be within it, according to the release.

This isn't happening, but it would be hilarious if Sessions lost after carpetbagging.

Edit: a fuller release:
https://static.texastribune.org/media/files/51fbdda7b3608e331d0d28fdda73f8cb/tx17poll.pdf

August 22-23, 2020
MoE: 4.38%

[Young Conservative]

https://rickkennedyforcongress.com/2020/09/01/kennedy-within-margin-of-error-in-race-against-sessions-biden-trump-are-in-a-dead-heat-in-race-for-president-among-cd-17-voters/

Conducted "last week" (August 24-30?)
1160 likely voters

Pete Sessions 45%
Rick Kennedy 42%
Undecided 13%

The margin of error is at least 3 % as Kennedy is said to be within it, according to the release.

This isn't happening, but it would be hilarious if Sessions lost after carpetbagging.

Edit: a fuller release:
https://static.texastribune.org/media/files/51fbdda7b3608e331d0d28fdda73f8cb/tx17poll.pdf

August 22-23, 2020
MoE: 4.38%

I was just in this district. Number of Biden signs I saw: 0. Number of Kennedy signs I saw: 0.

This is not the type of district I would expect to see a massive swing.

[wbrocks67]

https://rickkennedyforcongress.com/2020/09/01/kennedy-within-margin-of-error-in-race-against-sessions-biden-trump-are-in-a-dead-heat-in-race-for-president-among-cd-17-voters/

Conducted "last week" (August 24-30?)
1160 likely voters

Pete Sessions 45%
Rick Kennedy 42%
Undecided 13%

The margin of error is at least 3 % as Kennedy is said to be within it, according to the release.

This isn't happening, but it would be hilarious if Sessions lost after carpetbagging.

Edit: a fuller release:
https://static.texastribune.org/media/files/51fbdda7b3608e331d0d28fdda73f8cb/tx17poll.pdf

August 22-23, 2020
MoE: 4.38%

I was just in this district. Number of Biden signs I saw: 0. Number of Kennedy signs I saw: 0.

This is not the type of district I would expect to see a massive swing.

I'm gonna get specific here but I don't think lawn signs are really a good barometer right now. I haven't even gotten my sticker from the campaign yet so i doubt many people who ordered lawn signs have gotten them either...

[Pollster]

https://rickkennedyforcongress.com/2020/09/01/kennedy-within-margin-of-error-in-race-against-sessions-biden-trump-are-in-a-dead-heat-in-race-for-president-among-cd-17-voters/

Conducted "last week" (August 24-30?)
1160 likely voters

Pete Sessions 45%
Rick Kennedy 42%
Undecided 13%

The margin of error is at least 3 % as Kennedy is said to be within it, according to the release.

This isn't happening, but it would be hilarious if Sessions lost after carpetbagging.

Edit: a fuller release:
https://static.texastribune.org/media/files/51fbdda7b3608e331d0d28fdda73f8cb/tx17poll.pdf

August 22-23, 2020
MoE: 4.38%

I was just in this district. Number of Biden signs I saw: 0. Number of Kennedy signs I saw: 0.

This is not the type of district I would expect to see a massive swing.

I'm gonna get specific here but I don't think lawn signs are really a good barometer right now. I haven't even gotten my sticker from the campaign yet so i doubt many people who ordered lawn signs have gotten them either...

I've seen more Trump signs in DC proper of all places than I have Biden signs.

[Oryxslayer]

https://rickkennedyforcongress.com/2020/09/01/kennedy-within-margin-of-error-in-race-against-sessions-biden-trump-are-in-a-dead-heat-in-race-for-president-among-cd-17-voters/

Conducted "last week" (August 24-30?)
1160 likely voters

Pete Sessions 45%
Rick Kennedy 42%
Undecided 13%

The margin of error is at least 3 % as Kennedy is said to be within it, according to the release.

This isn't happening, but it would be hilarious if Sessions lost after carpetbagging.

Edit: a fuller release:
https://static.texastribune.org/media/files/51fbdda7b3608e331d0d28fdda73f8cb/tx17poll.pdf

August 22-23, 2020
MoE: 4.38%

I was just in this district. Number of Biden signs I saw: 0. Number of Kennedy signs I saw: 0.

This is not the type of district I would expect to see a massive swing.

I mean Beto lost it by 10 points. I wouldn't be surprised if it's a bit less than that in November. When we apply normal internal weights, it actually isn't that far off from this expectation.

[Landslide Lyndon]

https://twitter.com/JamesArkin/status/1300941685518741507

[wbrocks67]

Ds are raising boatloads of cash. I just hope they spend it correctly.

[ajc0918]

https://twitter.com/JamesArkin/status/1300941685518741507

Could Harrison's fundraising help Joe Cunningham win?

[Brittain33]

I wonder if Pete Sessions is weighed down by #MAGA hating Jeff Sessions and not knowing the difference.

[Virginiá]

Could Harrison's fundraising help Joe Cunningham win?

Plausibly if that money was being poured into a massive GOTV effort that overlapped heavily with SC-01. If it's just being pumped into ads promoting Harrison, then no.

[morgieb]

I wonder if Pete Sessions is weighed down by #MAGA hating Jeff Sessions and not knowing the difference.

I must admit, it would be hilarious if true.

But the bottom line was that Trump was only ahead by 1 in that poll, so unless something really weird is going on in Texas it's safe to say it's junk.

[VAR]

Generic ballot:

Suffolk University:

Democratic 47.5% (-3.0)
Republican 42.2% (+4.9)

https://www.suffolk.edu/-/media/suffolk/documents/academics/research-at-suffolk/suprc/polls/national/2020/9_2_2020_marginals_pdftxt.pdf

Grinnell/Selzer:

Democratic 48% (-2)
Republican 41% (nc)

https://www.grinnell.edu/sites/default/files/docs/2020-09/Selzer%20Co%20GCNP%202219%20Methodology.pdf

[VAR]

PA Generic Ballot (Monmouth)

RV
Democratic 48% (-1)
Republican 45% (nc)

High turnout
Democratic 48%
Republican 46%

Low turnout
Democratic 48%
Republican 47%

Competitive seats (PA-1/7/8/10/16/17)
Republican 50% (+7)
Democratic 40% (-8)

https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/documents/monmouthpoll_pa_090220.pdf/