2020 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread v2

[Landslide Lyndon]

McLaughlin & Associates GCB (10/17-22)

GOP - 44%
DEM - 46% (+2)

https://mclaughlinonline.com/pols/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/National-Monthly-Omnibus-October-PUBLIC-1.pdf

McLOLghlin.

[Landslide Lyndon]

^Looks like Sabato is moving PA-17 to Likely D:

https://twitter.com/kkondik/status/1189259146987737088

PAAAAAAAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA *breathes* HAHAHAHAHAHAAAAAA

Trump won the district by a few points and Parnell is a credible challenger. There’s no justification for rating a Trump 2016 district that is being contested Safe D, no matter how much you want you have relations with Connor Lamb

Lamb beat the incumbent Republican here by 12 points in 2018, and the best the GOP could do was to carpet bag their “top-tier candidate” all the way from Alaska.

That's a different Sean Parnell.

[Landslide Lyndon]

How awful has NRCC become?

https://twitter.com/MEPFuller/status/1189985309162921985

[Landslide Lyndon]

Damn! Utahns really, really, really dislike Trump.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Is there something we don't know about VA-07?

[Landslide Lyndon]

She won by almost 14% in a DEM wave year. This is a Trump +14 district. She will not lose.

That doesn't change the fact that she initially tried to sell herself as a Moderate Hero and now suddenly became a bona fide MAGA troll.

[Landslide Lyndon]

The guy is considered Trump's brain. And boy, does he live up to his reputation.

[Landslide Lyndon]

OK. Sure. Kellyanne is probably the closest thing then to a Karl Rove the GOP has right now. I mean, maybe she is at the caliber but she lacks the entire supervillian  vibe that Rove or Cheney had. She's just kind of a shill and a jackass.

I can't fathom what her domestic life is like. I mean her husband has now started dunking her publicly at twitter.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Brad Parscale tweeted out an internal poll that showed support for impeachment in OK-05 at 45%. Not sure what he was thinking, but if support is that high in the 5th, not only is the district clearly shifting Democrat but it’s good news for the Democratic majority lol.

Pollsters from both sides of the aisle are roasting him for it.

https://twitter.com/parscale/status/1202704225224003584

Parscale is SUPER salty there's a Dem rep in Oklahoma

it also shows a Democrat down by 7...

Why poll a generic Democrat when there is already an incumbent running?

[Landslide Lyndon]

OK. Sure. Kellyanne is probably the closest thing then to a Karl Rove the GOP has right now. I mean, maybe she is at the caliber but she lacks the entire supervillian  vibe that Rove or Cheney had. She's just kind of a shill and a jackass.

I can't fathom what her domestic life is like. I mean her husband has now started dunking her publicly at twitter.

Imagine being gullible enough to believe that. George Conaway is anti-Trump, but the idea that he and his wife are actually feuding is kinda bs tbh.

I don't believe anything but I can assure you that I'd be very embarrassed if my significant other constantly bashed me and my boss at social media.

[Landslide Lyndon]

RRH Elections updated their House ratings:

https://rrhelections.com/index.php/2019/12/07/rrh-elections-december-2019-house-ratings/

Moved in favor of Republicans
CA-21: Tossup from Lean D
CA-25: Tossup from Likely D
IN-1: Likely D from Safe D

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!

[Landslide Lyndon]

I'm not sure which is messier... that MI-03 was tossup to begin with or that Cartwright is suddenly Tossup after winning last time by 9.

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1208034648749740032

Wasserman is always eager to adopt woke narratives even when the evidence to support them is flimsy to non-existent.

[Landslide Lyndon]

OK-05
Agree with Horn's vote to impeach Trump? 47% approve / 49% disapprove
Horn job approval: 45/42 (+3)
Vote to re-elect Horn: 40% yes, 45% R challenger

These are actually very good #s for OK-05, so if it's playing like this in a Trump +double digit district then this is nowhere near the calamity for Dems that pundits and the media are making it out to be.

https://oklahoman.com/article/5650629/poll-shows-even-split-over-horns-votes-to-impeach-trump

I don't know this district too well, but based on these numbers it looks fairly similar to Kansas, in which a majority of voters default to Republicans but a larger than average number of those voters can be persuaded to vote for Democrats under the right circumstances. Horn can probably narrowly win here.

This district also voted for Edmondson by double digits.

[Landslide Lyndon]

I think a Dem net pickup would require something more dramatic than just those seats.  Cartwright, Peterson, Brindisi, the open IA-02, etc. are going to flip unless the presidential election is a Dem blowout.

What? This is Iowa's most Democratic district.

[Landslide Lyndon]

A few other fundraising figures:

https://twitter.com/kirk_bado/status/1214203474474344450

So many marks, so little time.

[Landslide Lyndon]

https://twitter.com/PolarBarrett/status/1214577843616833538?s=20

The republican Amy McGrath.

[Landslide Lyndon]

https://twitter.com/PolarBarrett/status/1214577843616833538?s=20

The republican Amy McGrath.

A few major differences:
1. John James has run a virtually flawless campaign while McGrath has had a serious of fatal missteps.
2. James faces no primary challenge, while McGrath faces a few.
3. Michigan is no Kentucky.
4. McConnell has a far better campaign apparatus than Peters.
5. Trump is going to do far better in Michigan than the Democratic nominee in Kentucky.

All of this is true, but the other side of the scale is a potential D+8 environment which wipes away any significance.

Kentucky 2016: R+30

Michigan 2016: R+1

That's what wipes out all any other comparisons between the two

And Indiana was D+1 in 2008.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Ok, and unlike Indiana 08 Trump still has plenty of room to grow in districts like MI-01 where he didn't even break 60 in 2016

And plenty of room to fall in the Detroit suburbs and Grand Rapids area.

[Landslide Lyndon]

He voted for Hillary Clinton in 2016 which could help him in this district.

Congressmen Richard Ojeda and Gene Taylor can attest to that.

[Landslide Lyndon]

It’s hard to believe that 2020 will be as lopsided a house vote as 2018. Even going off of the GCB at this point in the 2018 cycle Dems generally had double digit leads. Still, top 20 seems reasonable even with the big recruiting question mark for Dems there.

With the economy imploding and Trump completely bumbling through a pandemic, seems very possible that Republicans will have a bad year.

Oh it is extremely likely Republicans will have a bad year. There’s a lot of room between bad and 2018-esque wipeout though

2018 was hardly an unprecedented calamity for Republicans. They gained seats in the senate and lost only seven governorships.

[Landslide Lyndon]

CA-50 poll, a DEM internal, shows Darrell Issa up by 3:

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1244076183853162496?s=20

LOL

Safe R

Yeah, this was only close in 2018 because of Hunter. Ditto NY-27 and IA-04 if King loses the primary.

Issa will win but let's not pretend like he is some beloved politician. I reckon this is a district with a lot of high-information voters and they are probably familiar with him, his asshole-ish personality, and his carpetbagging.

[Landslide Lyndon]

McLaughlin GCB poll shows Democrats up by 3:

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1245205231308345344?s=20

I stopped reading at “McLaughlin”

Didn't they have Democrats losing in their last poll last time?

They had them losing a few days before the 2018 election.

[Landslide Lyndon]

https://twitter.com/NYGovCuomo/status/1247929924498923524

[Landslide Lyndon]

Interesting piece on AR-02, which was just added to the red-to-blue list.

It was on the list in 2018, and they triaged it and dismissed it in like the fall and the Democrats had like 45% in there in 2018.

52-46 to be exact.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Jaime Harrison raked in $7M+ and Amy McGrath raked in $12M+

Am I the only one not mad about this? First of all, I'm not saying they have a "lean" chance of winning, but hey, that's a LOT of cash, so you never know what could happen. Meanwhile, it would help the Democrats down ballot in both states, so it's worth it for that alone.

Yeah, it's stupid to waste all these money in unwinnable races. But then again Republicans also donate a boatload of money to the sacrificial lamb candidates that run against AOC, Pelosi, and Omar.