2020 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread v2

[wbrocks67]

Can we please get polls that AREN'T internals?

I don't think public pollsters are really gonna do any congressional polls this cycle. Or at least not until we get closer

[Seattle]

WA-03

Herrera Beutler (R, inc.) 44%
Long (D) 40%

Trump approval: 45/51
Herrera Beutler favorability: 44/32
Long favorability: 34/29

https://www.termlimits.com/wacd3-poll/

Well, Long did just get 40% in primary... interesting that Trump's approval is down in this district. Biden is probably going to crush it in Clark county.

[wbrocks67]

Also re MT-AL poll - no prez OR senate #s in there...

[VAR]

Final FL-19 poll (St. Pete’s Polls):

Donalds 23.4%
Askar 21.6%
Figlesthaler 16.4%
Eagle 15.5%
Henderson 10.7%

Other 12.3%

https://floridapolitics.com/archives/359381-final-poll-shows-byron-donalds-leading-casey-askar-surging

Also:

https://twitter.com/ByronDonalds/status/1295718050302500866?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoog...

[Storr]

Final FL-19 poll (St. Pete’s Polls):

Donalds 23.4%
Askar 21.6%
Figlesthaler 16.4%
Eagle 15.5%
Henderson 10.7%

Other 12.3%

https://floridapolitics.com/archives/359381-final-poll-shows-byron-donalds-leading-casey-askar-surging

Also:

https://twitter.com/ByronDonalds/status/1295718050302500866?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoog...

Random, but I was browsing through Donalds' twitter and found a cool tribute to Herman Cain:
https://twitter.com/ByronDonalds/status/1288861884742012928?s=20

[Roll Roons]

Funny thing is that no matter who wins, FL-19 will be on its fourth rep in a decade.

[wbrocks67]

New YouGov poll steady at Dem +11 in GCB

https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/c6n58wb53l/econTabReport.pdf

[wbrocks67]

Wow... though unsurprising given the numerous internal polls we've seen

https://twitter.com/JeremySWallace/status/1296111291296292864

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Wow... though unsurprising given the numerous internal polls we've seen

https://twitter.com/JeremySWallace/status/1296111291296292864

Big if true

[VAR]

IN-05 - Tulchin Research (D)

Hale 50%
Spartz 44%

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/512749-democrat-holds-5-point-lead-in-key-indiana-house-race-dccc-poll

Spartz overperforms Trump by 7 points.

[S019]

IN-05 - Tulchin Research (D)

Hale 50%
Spartz 45%

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/512749-democrat-holds-5-point-lead-in-key-indiana-house-race-dccc-poll

Tossup, but I still think Spartz wins narrowly

[VAR]

MA-04 Democratic Primary (Data for Progress)

Auchincloss 14%
Grossman 13%
Mermell 13%
Leckey 9%
Linos 9%
Khazei 7%
Sigel 3%
Zannetos 1%
https://filesforprogress.org/datasets/2020/8/primary_polling/dfp_ma-4.pdf#page=2

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Wow... though unsurprising given the numerous internal polls we've seen

https://twitter.com/JeremySWallace/status/1296111291296292864

[WD]

Wow... though unsurprising given the numerous internal polls we've seen

https://twitter.com/JeremySWallace/status/1296111291296292864

B L U E  T E X A S
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U                       X
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                         T
T E X A S  B L U E
E.                     E
X.                     U
A.                     L
S A X E T  E U L B

[Pericles]

IN-05 - Tulchin Research (D)

Hale 50%
Spartz 44%

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/512749-democrat-holds-5-point-lead-in-key-indiana-house-race-dccc-poll

Spartz overperforms Trump by 7 points.

Ugh, that overperformance is worrying. Though Spartz is just 2% ahead of Trump, Hale is 5% under Biden. I'm not sure if the presidential numbers are real or an overestimate, likely the latter but wild swings aren't impossible.

[Horus]

MA-04 Democratic Primary (Data for Progress)

Auchincloss 14%
Grossman 13%
Mermell 13%
Leckey 9%
Linos 9%
Khazei 7%
Sigel 3%
Zannetos 1%
https://filesforprogress.org/datasets/2020/8/primary_polling/dfp_ma-4.pdf#page=2

Isn't Auchincloss basically a Republican?

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

MA-04 Democratic Primary (Data for Progress)

Auchincloss 14%
Grossman 13%
Mermell 13%
Leckey 9%
Linos 9%
Khazei 7%
Sigel 3%
Zannetos 1%
https://filesforprogress.org/datasets/2020/8/primary_polling/dfp_ma-4.pdf#page=2

Isn't Auchincloss basically a Republican?

Either that (albeit a moderate Republican attempting to pull a Ted Wheeler) or a subject of a Damascene conversion. I'm getting some Steve Watkins vibes about this primary, minus the voter fraud.

[Roll Roons]

MA-04 Democratic Primary (Data for Progress)

Auchincloss 14%
Grossman 13%
Mermell 13%
Leckey 9%
Linos 9%
Khazei 7%
Sigel 3%
Zannetos 1%
https://filesforprogress.org/datasets/2020/8/primary_polling/dfp_ma-4.pdf#page=2

Isn't Auchincloss basically a Republican?

How is he "basically Republican"? He seems like a clone of Seth Moulton to me - Harvard-educated Marine who's certainly more moderate than the likes of Warren or Pressley, but hardly a Manchin or Lipinski type.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

MA-04 Democratic Primary (Data for Progress)

Auchincloss 14%
Grossman 13%
Mermell 13%
Leckey 9%
Linos 9%
Khazei 7%
Sigel 3%
Zannetos 1%
https://filesforprogress.org/datasets/2020/8/primary_polling/dfp_ma-4.pdf#page=2

Isn't Auchincloss basically a Republican?

How is he "basically Republican"? He seems like a clone of Seth Moulton to me - Harvard-educated Marine who's certainly more moderate than the likes of Warren or Pressley, but hardly a Manchin or Lipinski type.

Writing kulturkampf social media posts at 22 is one thing, but being a paid operative (years later) of the MA Republican Party and a consultant at a firm campaigning for Republican candidates (including Scott Brown in NH) is another.

It's quite possible he's had an earnest evolution and his platform seems generic D for the most part (with a pro-Baker tint), but most of these party switches (in either direction) aren't very principled at all. If he wins and the Democrats get a trifecta, it'll be interesting to see how committed he really is to the reforms he says he wants.

[Yellowhammer]

Texas seems to have completed its transition into a safe blue state.

[wbrocks67]

IN-05 - Tulchin Research (D)

Hale 50%
Spartz 44%

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/512749-democrat-holds-5-point-lead-in-key-indiana-house-race-dccc-poll

Spartz overperforms Trump by 7 points.

Ugh, that overperformance is worrying. Though Spartz is just 2% ahead of Trump, Hale is 5% under Biden. I'm not sure if the presidential numbers are real or an overestimate, likely the latter but wild swings aren't impossible.

Two polls with a Hale lead of 5 and the CW is "Hale must be losing"?

[Gracile]

The DCCC is making a $9.9 million ad buy for 12 congressional districts, among them Alaska and Montana:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/elections/2020/08/19/democratic-national-convention-live-updates/#link-K3OKIWNJ5VEPZLMFFPSJELWUYA

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee is seeking to expand the House playing field in November by competing in races in Alaska and Montana as part of a new $9.9 million ad buy.

(...)

The DCCC buy also includes ads in Arizona, California, Iowa, Nebraska, New York, Ohio, South Carolina and Texas.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

The DCCC is making a $9.9 million ad buy for 12 congressional districts, among them Alaska and Montana:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/elections/2020/08/19/democratic-national-convention-live-updates/#link-K3OKIWNJ5VEPZLMFFPSJELWUYA

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee is seeking to expand the House playing field in November by competing in races in Alaska and Montana as part of a new $9.9 million ad buy.

(...)

The DCCC buy also includes ads in Arizona, California, Iowa, Nebraska, New York, Ohio, South Carolina and Texas.

I can't get past the paywall. Does it say what specific districts they're targeting?

[Gracile]

The DCCC is making a $9.9 million ad buy for 12 congressional districts, among them Alaska and Montana:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/elections/2020/08/19/democratic-national-convention-live-updates/#link-K3OKIWNJ5VEPZLMFFPSJELWUYA

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee is seeking to expand the House playing field in November by competing in races in Alaska and Montana as part of a new $9.9 million ad buy.

(...)

The DCCC buy also includes ads in Arizona, California, Iowa, Nebraska, New York, Ohio, South Carolina and Texas.

I can't get past the paywall. Does it say what specific districts they're targeting?

No, just the states listed above.

[Lisa's voting Biden]

The DCCC is making a $9.9 million ad buy for 12 congressional districts, among them Alaska and Montana:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/elections/2020/08/19/democratic-national-convention-live-updates/#link-K3OKIWNJ5VEPZLMFFPSJELWUYA

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee is seeking to expand the House playing field in November by competing in races in Alaska and Montana as part of a new $9.9 million ad buy.

(...)

The DCCC buy also includes ads in Arizona, California, Iowa, Nebraska, New York, Ohio, South Carolina and Texas.

I can't get past the paywall. Does it say what specific districts they're targeting?

I'm gonna guess AK-AL, MT-AL, AZ-06, CA-25, IA-01, IA-02, IA-03, NE-02, NY-02, OH-01, SC-01, and TX-24