2020 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread v2

[OneJ]

Don Bacon is not winning what is likely to be Biden +11

We've seen multiple polls showing Eastman drastically underperforming Biden. It would not be shocking to see her lose while Biden carries it.

Fair point, but assuming does win the district by 11 it’d be hard for even #strongcandidate Bacon to hold on. The same applies to NY-24 and PA-01.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Sabato also shoulda stuck to his guns on IA instead of beclowning himself with a switch at the last minute when his prior move was way too premature.

[wbrocks67]

Sabato also shoulda stuck to his guns on IA instead of beclowning himself with a switch at the last minute when his prior move was way too premature.

It'll be hilarious if Greenfield wins and they could've just stuck to their gut

[Bootes Void]

Sabato also shoulda stuck to his guns on IA instead of beclowning himself with a switch at the last minute when his prior move was way too premature.

It'll be hilarious if Greenfield wins and they could've just stuck to their gut

Well Sabato made the right choice

[ElectionsGuy]

Sabato needs to be fired. TX 21 and 22 are long gone
Don Bacon is not winning what is likely to be Biden +11
And don't get me started on MN 01

Sabato does need to be fired, but for different reasons...

[VAR]

People really ignored the warning signs of a closer than expected House result (GCB, polls showing that the voters expected Biden to win).

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

People really ignored the warning signs of a closer than expected House result (GCB, polls showing that the voters expected Biden to win).

Yeah. My problem is that I didn't believe the disparity because most polls showed that Americans thought Trump was going to win, so my think was: "Why would the GCB tighten if they elected a blue congress two years ago as a check on him?"

[Annatar]

The House models were a disaster this year, the Economist had the GOP house seat range with their 99% confidence interval between 171-208 seats, the GOP could get up to 214 seats when all is said and done, the GOP had an under 1% chance of winning 213 or 214 seats with the dem chances being over 99%.

In the 538 model, error margins were wider, this helped their model be more accurate but still the GOP winning 214 seats was on the 5th percentile of outcomes, and 213 seats was the 6th percentile.

[VAR]

Sabato needs to be fired. TX 21 and 22 are long gone
Don Bacon is not winning what is likely to be Biden +11
And don't get me started on MN 01

LOL OH-01 and MN-01 before like half a dozen TX seats more likely to flip

Yeah, that's a joke. OH-01 before seats like TX-22 is bad enough, but MN-01!? I think TX-22 would go Democratic by double digits before MN-01 flips.

TX-22 actually voted to the right of MN-01.

Tbf I was surprised too

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

The House models were a disaster this year, the Economist had the GOP house seat range with their 99% confidence interval between 171-208 seats, the GOP could get up to 214 seats when all is said and done, the GOP had an under 1% chance of winning 213 or 214 seats with the dem chances being over 99%.

In the 538 model, error margins were wider, this helped their model be more accurate but still the GOP winning 214 seats was on the 5th percentile of outcomes, and 213 seats was the 6th percentile.

The people who made the model for the Economist are ~idiots https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris

but all models will suck if there will be 5+% polling error>>>

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Sabato needs to be fired. TX 21 and 22 are long gone
Don Bacon is not winning what is likely to be Biden +11
And don't get me started on MN 01

LOL OH-01 and MN-01 before like half a dozen TX seats more likely to flip

Yeah, that's a joke. OH-01 before seats like TX-22 is bad enough, but MN-01!? I think TX-22 would go Democratic by double digits before MN-01 flips.

TX-22 actually voted to the right of MN-01.

Tbf I was surprised too

I’d argue Feehan would’ve won if not for the third party guy’s (Pot Party IIRC) freakishly good performance.  Feehan lost so I can’t quite accept accolades, but I think my belief that MN-1 was far from a lost cause has been vindicated. 

[wbrocks67]

Is anyone else actually quite surprised that MN-01 was that close? Given the environment this year with house losses, I would've wrote that race off, but it was closer than I would've thought. I thought we had written that district off even after 2018.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Is anyone else actually quite surprised that MN-01 was that close? Given the environment this year with house losses, I would've wrote that race off, but it was closer than I would've thought. I thought we had written that district off even after 2018.

I think it goes to show how much down ballot lags behind Presidential trends. Most of Democrat's disappointments were in suburban districts whereas they actually did fine in many rural districts.

[Horus]

Is anyone else actually quite surprised that MN-01 was that close? Given the environment this year with house losses, I would've wrote that race off, but it was closer than I would've thought. I thought we had written that district off even after 2018.

Isn't Rochester in this district? Biden gained almost ten points on Hillary in Olmsted county. COVID likely had quite the effect in such a well educated place full of doctors.

[Coastal Elitist]

Reading back through this thread is hilarious such awful takes lol especially from wbrocks and Trendsarereal.

With that said all pundits and "election experts" should be fired 538 didn't even get the only D house flip correct and Cook and Sabato were complete jokes as well as all the others. Also this should show that the partisan lean of a district is more important than fundraising especially when most of the money is coming from out of state.

[Roll Roons]

Reading back through this thread is hilarious such awful takes lol especially from wbrocks.

With that said all pundits and "election experts" should be fired 538 didn't even get the only D house flip correct and Cook and Sabato were complete jokes as well as all the others. Also this should show that the partisan lean of a district is more important than fundraising especially when most of the money is coming from out of state.

I think Trendsarereal had more annoying takes about Texas. Though both of them had a lot of really bad takes about Brian Fitzpatrick, who ended up winning by 13 points.

[Annatar]

One positive about all the Republican house members retiring in 2018 and 2020 is there is now a lot of fresh blood in the House GOP, a lot of older, lower quality members have left, 76 Republican house members left voluntarily, were primaried or died in either the 2018 or 2020 cycles vs 35 democrats.

A further 30 Republican incumbents were taken out in 2018 for a net loss of 106 among Republican house members since 2016, of course some of the incumbents who lost in 2018 won this year, nonetheless we still have around a 100 new members or 40% renewal of the House GOP over just a 4 year period.

It is kind of amazing how much turnover there has been in just 4 years in the House GOP, I think it is a positive as a lot of the newer members are more effective and more in touch with where the party needs to go than many of the older member were, also it helps prevent a geriatric leadership class from developing like the House Democrats have.

[Annatar]

I was looking at the 538 house model and saw they had the GOP favoured in GA 7, it is hilarious how the 1 seats the dems flipped outside redistricting, 538 had the GOP winning and all the seats the GOP flipped, 538 had the dems winning. Their house model was really bad, wonder whether Nate Silver will ever talk about it publicly.

[Pericles]

Sabato needs to be fired. TX 21 and 22 are long gone
Don Bacon is not winning what is likely to be Biden +11
And don't get me started on MN 01

LOL OH-01 and MN-01 before like half a dozen TX seats more likely to flip

Turns out MN-01 would have flipped before every TX Republican seat except TX-24 lol.

[Roll Roons]

Sabato needs to be fired. TX 21 and 22 are long gone
Don Bacon is not winning what is likely to be Biden +11
And don't get me started on MN 01

LOL OH-01 and MN-01 before like half a dozen TX seats more likely to flip

Turns out MN-01 would have flipped before every TX Republican seat except TX-24 lol.

People really got carried away when it came to Texas. TrendsareReal was one of the worst offenders. Probably a combination of wishful thinking, a fetish for #trends and being misled by all those s****y polls.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Sabato needs to be fired. TX 21 and 22 are long gone
Don Bacon is not winning what is likely to be Biden +11
And don't get me started on MN 01

LOL OH-01 and MN-01 before like half a dozen TX seats more likely to flip

Turns out MN-01 would have flipped before every TX Republican seat except TX-24 lol.

I now accept my accolades

[Yellowhammer]

Sabato needs to be fired. TX 21 and 22 are long gone
Don Bacon is not winning what is likely to be Biden +11
And don't get me started on MN 01

LOL OH-01 and MN-01 before like half a dozen TX seats more likely to flip

Turns out MN-01 would have flipped before every TX Republican seat except TX-24 lol.

People really got carried away when it came to Texas. TrendsareReal was one of the worst offenders. Probably a combination of wishful thinking, a fetish for #trends and being misled by all those s****y polls.

Wasn't just the polls, plenty of people were fooled by them including me (will not make the mistake of believing them any more).
But lots of hacks here and elsewhere were saying Texas is Lean/Likely D for both presidency and senate throughout 2019 and 2020. Turns out republican trends are just as "real" as dem ones.

[Gracile]

Sabato needs to be fired. TX 21 and 22 are long gone
Don Bacon is not winning what is likely to be Biden +11
And don't get me started on MN 01

LOL OH-01 and MN-01 before like half a dozen TX seats more likely to flip

Turns out MN-01 would have flipped before every TX Republican seat except TX-24 lol.

People really got carried away when it came to Texas. TrendsareReal was one of the worst offenders. Probably a combination of wishful thinking, a fetish for #trends and being misled by all those s****y polls.

Wasn't just the polls, plenty of people were fooled by them including me (will not make the mistake of believing them any more).
But lots of hacks here and elsewhere were saying Texas is Lean/Likely D for both presidency and senate throughout 2019 and 2020. Turns out republican trends are just as "real" as dem ones.

Idk about elsewhere, but I don't remember anyone here unironically going as far as saying that Texas was Lean/Likely D (maybe a few Tilt D given the number of close polls that Biden lead).