2020 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread v2 (user search)
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Author Topic: 2020 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread v2  (Read 165653 times)
Gracile
gracile
Moderator
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,064


Political Matrix
E: -8.00, S: -7.65
« on: October 14, 2019, 11:01:27 AM »
IN-05: Christina Hale (D) raised $325K in Q3.
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Gracile
gracile
Moderator
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,064


Political Matrix
E: -8.00, S: -7.65
« Reply #1 on: October 15, 2019, 09:18:04 AM »
Some Texas fundraising numbers from Democratic challengers:
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Gracile
gracile
Moderator
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,064


Political Matrix
E: -8.00, S: -7.65
« Reply #2 on: October 15, 2019, 04:20:51 PM »
Quote from: Zaybay on October 15, 2019, 04:18:47 PM


Extremely poor numbers from an extremely vulnerable incumbent.

Really curious how much Fischbach raised.
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Gracile
gracile
Moderator
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,064


Political Matrix
E: -8.00, S: -7.65
« Reply #3 on: October 15, 2019, 05:14:34 PM »
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Gracile
gracile
Moderator
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,064


Political Matrix
E: -8.00, S: -7.65
« Reply #4 on: October 15, 2019, 06:01:16 PM »
« Edited: October 15, 2019, 06:04:53 PM by Secular Progressive »
Peterson only got $23K from individuals this quarter compared to Fischbach who got $81K in donations from individuals.
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Gracile
gracile
Moderator
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,064


Political Matrix
E: -8.00, S: -7.65
« Reply #5 on: October 16, 2019, 11:33:24 AM »
Here's a very informative thread that gives a breakdown of fundraising in all the seats targeted by the DCCC and NRCC:
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Gracile
gracile
Moderator
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,064


Political Matrix
E: -8.00, S: -7.65
« Reply #6 on: October 22, 2019, 09:43:01 AM »
Rep. Elise Stefanik’s PAC devoted to electing Republican women to the House has made its first set of endorsements-
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Gracile
gracile
Moderator
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,064


Political Matrix
E: -8.00, S: -7.65
« Reply #7 on: October 24, 2019, 11:06:00 AM »
This is an interesting development in the IL-14/FL-19 races:
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Gracile
gracile
Moderator
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,064


Political Matrix
E: -8.00, S: -7.65
« Reply #8 on: October 25, 2019, 12:31:14 PM »
Cook Political moved IL-13 to the Toss Up column from Lean R (though they didn't announce it):

https://cookpolitical.com/ratings/house-race-ratings
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Gracile
gracile
Moderator
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,064


Political Matrix
E: -8.00, S: -7.65
« Reply #9 on: October 25, 2019, 09:27:15 PM »
Quote from: Bevinevitable on October 25, 2019, 09:13:44 PM
Quote from: Xing on October 24, 2019, 10:31:56 PM
Quote from: Bevinevitable on October 24, 2019, 01:37:22 PM

Roll Eyes

This will go about as well as the #resistance's efforts against Paul Gosar in 2018.

They might even got Gaetz to only win by 30 instead of 35!!!!

Honestly, if I ran the RNC, I'd tell all the incumbents in R+15 districts and higher to try to trigger the libs as much as possible to suck away millions of gullible #resistance dollars into the abyss.

It probably wouldn't make much of a difference, as all the gullible #MAGA people would still waste their dollars on Republican challengers to AOC/Omar/Tlaib/etc.
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Gracile
gracile
Moderator
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,064


Political Matrix
E: -8.00, S: -7.65
« Reply #10 on: October 29, 2019, 02:16:29 PM »
^Looks like Sabato is moving PA-17 to Likely D:
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Gracile
gracile
Moderator
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,064


Political Matrix
E: -8.00, S: -7.65
« Reply #11 on: November 01, 2019, 08:43:37 PM »
Quote from: MT Treasurer on November 01, 2019, 07:38:17 PM
Quote from: gracile on October 25, 2019, 12:31:14 PM
Cook Political moved IL-13 to the Toss Up column from Lean R (though they didn't announce it):

https://cookpolitical.com/ratings/house-race-ratings

Cook also moved MI-SEN from Likely to Lean D.

It's wild that they had it at Likely D to start off with but then again knowing Cook it shouldn't have been that surprising.
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Gracile
gracile
Moderator
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,064


Political Matrix
E: -8.00, S: -7.65
« Reply #12 on: November 07, 2019, 10:46:34 AM »
Big news out of TX-24 - EMILY's List has decided to endorse Candace Valenzuela.
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Gracile
gracile
Moderator
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,064


Political Matrix
E: -8.00, S: -7.65
« Reply #13 on: November 11, 2019, 12:34:44 PM »
The DCCC released a poll one week ago that asked about Trump's job approval in a number of battleground districts:

https://2vmhfw1isbe32j3tgn3epw3x-wpengine.netdna-ssl.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/One-Year-Out.pdf
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Gracile
gracile
Moderator
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,064


Political Matrix
E: -8.00, S: -7.65
« Reply #14 on: November 13, 2019, 11:08:29 AM »
Former Rep. Pete Sessions (R-TX-32) is still very much in for TX-17, and has officially filed:
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Gracile
gracile
Moderator
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,064


Political Matrix
E: -8.00, S: -7.65
« Reply #15 on: November 15, 2019, 11:46:17 AM »
Cook Political has made two rating changes:

https://cookpolitical.com/ratings/house-race-ratings

NJ-02: Lean D -> Tossup

VA-07: Tossup -> Lean D
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Gracile
gracile
Moderator
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,064


Political Matrix
E: -8.00, S: -7.65
« Reply #16 on: November 16, 2019, 06:29:13 PM »
Quote from: Landslide Lyndon on November 16, 2019, 04:19:30 PM
Quote from: LCameronOR on November 16, 2019, 03:23:02 PM
She won by almost 14% in a DEM wave year. This is a Trump +14 district. She will not lose.

That doesn't change the fact that she initially tried to sell herself as a Moderate Hero and now suddenly became a bona fide MAGA troll.

Dropping the Moderate Hero act isn't going to stop Trumpists (a majority of her district's electorate based on 2016 vote share) from electing her.

----

It is a bit funny though that Stefanik's whole shtick was about making a concerted effort to bring women/diversity into the GOP caucus and overnight she's become a hero to the MAGA crowd.
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Gracile
gracile
Moderator
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,064


Political Matrix
E: -8.00, S: -7.65
« Reply #17 on: November 19, 2019, 04:30:20 PM »
Quote from: Badger on November 19, 2019, 10:22:56 AM
Quote from: gracile on November 16, 2019, 06:29:13 PM
Quote from: Landslide Lyndon on November 16, 2019, 04:19:30 PM
Quote from: LCameronOR on November 16, 2019, 03:23:02 PM
She won by almost 14% in a DEM wave year. This is a Trump +14 district. She will not lose.

That doesn't change the fact that she initially tried to sell herself as a Moderate Hero and now suddenly became a bona fide MAGA troll.

Dropping the Moderate Hero act isn't going to stop Trumpists (a majority of her district's electorate based on 2016 vote share) from electing her.

----

It is a bit funny though that Stefanik's whole shtick was about making a concerted effort to bring women/diversity into the GOP caucus and overnight she's become a hero to the MAGA crowd.

This place is historically Democratic and had a ton of Obama Trump voters. I wouldn't put odds on her losing, but it is definitely within the realm of reasonable possibility

NY-21 (or rather its equivalent region) is actually ancestrally Republican. Obama won the current district both times, but so did George W. Bush - who won the area under its 2003-2013 lines in 2000 and 2004 in its previous iteration, NY-23. Republican congressmen have also represented the North Country throughout much of the 20th century, in addition to voting for Republican presidential candidates. I think a big part of Obama's win here was due to the economy at the time. Barring another major financial crisis, I have a difficult time seeing the voters who swung decisively to Trump swinging back to Democrats at Obama levels.
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Gracile
gracile
Moderator
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,064


Political Matrix
E: -8.00, S: -7.65
« Reply #18 on: November 29, 2019, 08:19:55 PM »
Inside Elections made 13 House rating changes (12 in favor of Democrats, 1 in favor of Republicans):

https://insideelections.com/ratings/house/2020-house-ratings-november-26-2019

AZ-06 (Schweikert): Safe R -> Likely R
CA-25 (VACANT): Likely D -> Solid D
IL-06 (Casten): Lean D -> Likely D
IL-13 (Davis): Tilt R -> Tossup
IA-02 (Loebsack, OPEN): Tossup -> Tilt D
IA-04 (King): Lean R -> Tilt R
MI-08 (Slotkin): Tilt D -> Lean D
MI-11 (Stevens): Lean D -> Likely D
MN-01 (Hagedorn): Lean R -> Tilt R
MN-02 (Craig): Lean D -> Likely D
MN-07 (Peterson): Lean D -> Tilt D
NH-01 (Pappas): Lean D -> Likely D
VA-02 (Luria): Tilt D -> Lean D
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Gracile
gracile
Moderator
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,064


Political Matrix
E: -8.00, S: -7.65
« Reply #19 on: November 29, 2019, 09:56:01 PM »
Quote from: Nyvin on November 29, 2019, 08:48:17 PM
Really seems like election prognosticators hand out the "Likely D/R" rating very generously,  while going from Tilt/Lean D/R to tossup is quite restricted.

Sometimes it feels like the Likely rating is just a way to signify races that are essentially safe, but the major prognosticators can't completely close the door on them because they could feasibly be vulnerable under the right circumstances (unfavorable environment, scandal, etc.). Really though, I would say about half of the seats generally considered as part of the Likely column should be rated Safe/Solid instead.
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Gracile
gracile
Moderator
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,064


Political Matrix
E: -8.00, S: -7.65
« Reply #20 on: December 01, 2019, 11:46:24 PM »
« Edited: December 01, 2019, 11:49:36 PM by gracile »
Freitas may pose a mild threat to Spanberger in some of the more rural parts of VA-07 but seems like a poor fit for the kind of voters in Henrico and Chesterfield that have veered far from the GOP.
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Gracile
gracile
Moderator
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,064


Political Matrix
E: -8.00, S: -7.65
« Reply #21 on: December 02, 2019, 07:33:02 PM »
The new NC-08 is the only new seat on the fringes of competitiveness, but it would still likely take a reasonably good year for Democrats to actually flip.
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Gracile
gracile
Moderator
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,064


Political Matrix
E: -8.00, S: -7.65
« Reply #22 on: December 04, 2019, 02:04:02 PM »
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Gracile
gracile
Moderator
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,064


Political Matrix
E: -8.00, S: -7.65
« Reply #23 on: December 05, 2019, 10:09:14 AM »
Mark Walker update:
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Gracile
gracile
Moderator
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,064


Political Matrix
E: -8.00, S: -7.65
« Reply #24 on: December 06, 2019, 04:11:12 PM »
Inside Elections released their initial ratings of NC's new congressional districts:

https://insideelections.com/ratings/house/2020-house-ratings-december-6-2019

NC-02: Likely D
NC-06: Likely D
NC-08: Likely R
NC-09: Lean R

Every other seat is either Solid D or Solid R for the party that holds them.
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