COVID-19 Megathread 6: Return of the Omicron

[Del Tachi]

https://twitter.com/cnn/status/1298582772932648960?s=21

I eagerly await for Del Tachi to find some excuse for this atrocious and horrifying move.

Or you can just read the actual CDC guidance for yourself... (hard to do, I know )

A negative test does not mean that you will not develop an infection from the close contact or contract an infection at a later time.  Testing asymptomatic individuals early after a confirmed contact may produce a false sense of security if the test returns negative.  The CDC still recommends that those exposed to a confirmed case take appropriate mitigation actions (like isolating for 14 days), even in the absence of a positive test.

[It’s so Joever]

https://twitter.com/cnn/status/1298582772932648960?s=21

I eagerly await for Del Tachi to find some excuse for this atrocious and horrifying move.

Or you can just read the actual CDC guidance for yourself... (hard to do, I know )

A negative test does not mean that you will not develop an infection from the close contact or contract an infection at a later time.  Testing asymptomatic individuals early after a confirmed contact may produce a false sense of security if the test returns negative.  The CDC still recommends that those exposed to a confirmed case take appropriate mitigation actions (like isolating for 14 days), even in the absence of a positive test.

Wow, you really do lack creative thinking skills.
The advice should be, get tested and isolate even if negative. Of course, I suppose two step instructions might be too difficult for certain people.
It is important to know where the virus is spreading, believe it or not.

[It’s so Joever]

Interesting poll results here:

https://twitter.com/ArgoJournal/status/1298639971730051072

Looks like Black women and Latinas are going hard for Trump.

Nah, anti-science stances have been too common among both racial groups for a while now.
For Black Americans, the Tuskegee experiment probably played a role in this.
They will still vote Democrat in most cases.
The people who are not wearing masks in my city tend to be either Black, or Hispanic (usually the second because of sheer numbers relative to the first) It is a shame because Covid-19 is more likely to cause severe illness in these groups.

[It’s so Joever]

Both testing numbers in total and positivity rates have dropped (the first is a bad thing, the second is good)
There are several possible explanations for this change, but it still is interesting to see.


https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/testing/individual-states

[emailking]

CDC was pressured 'from the top down' to change coronavirus testing guidance, official says

A sudden change in federal guidelines on coronavirus testing came this week as a result of pressure from the upper ranks of the Trump administration, a federal health official close to the process tells CNN.

"It's coming from the top down," the official said of the new directive from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

The new guidelines raise the bar on who should get tested, advising that some people without symptoms probably don't need it -- even if they've been in close contact with an infected person.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/08/26/politics/cdc-coronavirus-testing-guidance/index.html

[GeorgiaModerate]

COVID-19 cases among children surge in Georgia

The number of Georgians under the age of 18 diagnosed with COVID-19 has jumped 65% in the past month, with more than 21,000 testing positive since March.

[jamestroll]

This whole pandemic has brought out the worst in people.

Republicans are constantly attacking and even assaulting and sometimes murdering retail workers over mask mandates.

Some people feel entitled to permanent government checks and even many refuse to go back to work even if called back.

Privileged people are just flaunting and showing off their privilege.

Some people are screaming to everyone to "WORK FROM HOME!!" even to people who can not work from home!

Its just all becoming nonsense.

Draconian lockdowns from the left are all about power not about health. I dont see any democratic governor doing what online liberals propose on this.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

https://twitter.com/maddow/status/1298683300836454400

[Dr. Arch]

The updated numbers for COVID-19 in the U.S. are in for 8/26 per: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

I'm keeping track of these updates daily and updating at the end of the day, whenever all states finish reporting for that day.

New - Substituting the Δ Change metric as of 7/13 on dates starting from 7/5:
ΔW Change: Comparisons of Weekly Day-to-day Growth or Decline of COVID-19 Spread/Deaths.

• IE: Comparing the numbers to the same day of last week, are we flattening the curve enough?

Σ Increase: A day's contribution to overall percentage growth of COVID-19 cases/deaths.

• IE: What's the overall change in the total?

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8/16: <Sunday>

• Cases: 5,566,632 (+36,843 | ΔW Change: ↓25.90% | Σ Increase: ↑0.67%)
• Deaths: 173,128 (+522 | ΔW Change: ↓4.57% | Σ Increase: ↑0.30%)

8/17: <M>

• Cases: 5,612,027 (+45,395 | ΔW Change: ↓12.71% | Σ Increase: ↑0.82%)
• Deaths: 173,716 (+588 | ΔW Change: ↑2.26% | Σ Increase: ↑0.34%)

8/18: <T>

• Cases: 5,655,974 (+43,947 | ΔW Change: ↓19.38% | Σ Increase: ↑0.82%)
• Deaths: 175,074 (+1,358 | ΔW Change: ↓12.78% | Σ Increase: ↑0.78%)

8/19: <W>

• Cases: 5,700,931 (+44,957 | ΔW Change: ↓17.27% | Σ Increase: ↑0.79%)
• Deaths: 176,337 (+1,263 | ΔW Change: ↓8.61% | Σ Increase: ↑0.72%)

8/20: <Þ>

• Cases: 5,746,272 (+45,341 | ΔW Change: ↓18.10% | Σ Increase: ↑0.80%)
• Deaths: 177,424 (+1,087 | ΔW Change: ↓2.95% | Σ Increase: ↑0.62%)

8/21: <F>

• Cases: 5,796,727 (+50,455 | ΔW Change: ↓16.74% | Σ Increase: ↑0.88%)
• Deaths: 179,200 (+1,776 | ΔW Change: ↑58.57% | Σ Increase: ↑1.00%)

8/22: <S>

• Cases: 5,841,428 (+44,701| ΔW Change: ↓20.92% | Σ Increase: ↑0.77%)
• Deaths: 180,174 (+974 | ΔW Change: ↓9.06% | Σ Increase: ↑0.54%)

8/23: <Sunday>

• Cases: 5,874,146 (+32,718| ΔW Change: ↓11.20% | Σ Increase: ↑0.56%)
• Deaths: 180,604 (+430 | ΔW Change: ↓17.62% | Σ Increase: ↑0.24%)

8/24: <M>

• Cases: 5,915,630 (+41,484| ΔW Change: ↓8.62% | Σ Increase: ↑0.71%)
• Deaths: 181,114 (+510 | ΔW Change: ↓13.27% | Σ Increase: ↑0.28%)

8/25 (Yesterday): <T>

• Cases: 5,955,728 (+40,098| ΔW Change: ↓8.76% | Σ Increase: ↑0.68%)
• Deaths: 182,404 (+1,290 | ΔW Change: ↓5.01% | Σ Increase: ↑0.71%)

8/26 (Today): <W>

• Cases: 6,000,365 (+44,637| ΔW Change: ↓0.71% | Σ Increase: ↑0.75%)
• Deaths: 183,653 (+1,249 | ΔW Change: ↓1.11% | Σ Increase: ↑0.68%)

[Xing]

Maybe those of us saying that classes have to be remote for now (even if that’s not at all ideal) had a point? ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

[It’s so Joever]

Maybe those of us saying that classes have to be remote for now (even if that’s not at all ideal) had a point? ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Kids in my district are being forced back into high schools that have already had a confirmed student case. The lab experiment is going great!

[Sir Mohamed]

Maybe those of us saying that classes have to be remote for now (even if that’s not at all ideal) had a point? ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

I'm out of university for almost a decade and don't have kids at school, so I'm not pretending to exactly know how things are going on the ground, but the problem with remote lessons is mostly infrastructure. Not all teachers have sufficient training with technical issues, let alone kids and their parents. Particularly in low income households. A small percentage might not even have internet access. Business as usual in schools for sure is irresponsible in the situation we're in, but I'm more than skeptical remote lessons can sort of replace schooling.

[Xing]

Maybe those of us saying that classes have to be remote for now (even if that’s not at all ideal) had a point? ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

I'm out of university for almost a decade and don't have kids at school, so I'm not pretending to exactly know how things are going on the ground, but the problem with remote lessons is mostly infrastructure. Not all teachers have sufficient training with technical issues, let alone kids and their parents. Particularly in low income households. A small percentage might not even have internet access. Business as usual in schools for sure is irresponsible in the situation we're in, but I'm more than skeptical remote lessons can sort of replace schooling.

They can't fully replace schooling, which is why it's very far from ideal. It's basically the least bad solution, since a lot of schools just don't have the resources, space, or time in the day to provide in-person learning with distance. There are just so many hidden forms of contact and normal activities in school that can lead very quickly to an outbreak. It's only really possible if it's in an area that has virtually no cases and is pretty isolated. In areas which have a high positivity rate, schools often just have to close again after a day or two because outbreaks happen almost immediately. Teachers and union members in my district spent pretty much all spring and summer discussing the possibility of opening in the fall, and there were many potential risk factors that no one could come up with a solution for. Then, of course, cases went way up, and there was no question that we couldn't open schools yet.

[lfromnj]

Maybe those of us saying that classes have to be remote for now (even if that’s not at all ideal) had a point? ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

I'm out of university for almost a decade and don't have kids at school, so I'm not pretending to exactly know how things are going on the ground, but the problem with remote lessons is mostly infrastructure. Not all teachers have sufficient training with technical issues, let alone kids and their parents. Particularly in low income households. A small percentage might not even have internet access. Business as usual in schools for sure is irresponsible in the situation we're in, but I'm more than skeptical remote lessons can sort of replace schooling.

They can't fully replace schooling, which is why it's very far from ideal. It's basically the least bad solution, since a lot of schools just don't have the resources, space, or time in the day to provide in-person learning with distance. There are just so many hidden forms of contact and normal activities in school that can lead very quickly to an outbreak. It's only really possible if it's in an area that has virtually no cases and is pretty isolated. In areas which have a high positivity rate, schools often just have to close again after a day or two because outbreaks happen almost immediately. Teachers and union members in my district spent pretty much all spring and summer discussing the possibility of opening in the fall, and there were many potential risk factors that no one could come up with a solution for. Then, of course, cases went way up, and there was no question that we couldn't open schools yet.

I was unsure at first but then I agreed online schooling made more sense. However why are certain teacher unions opposing online live learning? Shouldn't the point be to make it as normal as possible?

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

The problem with "distance learning" isn't that teachers don't know how to use Zoom.
The problem is that 6-year olds absolutely should not be staring at a computer screen for 5 hours a day.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

It looks like the surge in infections has moved to the Plains and upper Midwest, while cases in FL/AZ/TX/NV continue to decline rapidly.

Kansas set a new record for daily cases yesterday, and it looks like Iowa, Minnesota, and North Dakota have already set new records for cases today.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

The problem with "distance learning" isn't that teachers don't know how to use Zoom.
The problem is that 6-year olds absolutely should not be staring at a computer screen for 5 hours a day.

The problem is that there is literally no good way to do education during a pandemic, and until we actually get the pandemic fully under control that is going to remain the case.

[It’s so Joever]

Welp, I would say I called the Midwest jump, but it was only two weeks ago so the writing kinda was on the wall.
Tbh I’m now concerned about a potential wave in the PNW this fall, especially Oregon.  They have competent leadership, but that only does so much when most of the States do not. Also my prediction of a Rocky Mountain surge (CO, MT, WY, ID, and UT) still is pending. Will be interesting to see how right/wrong my takes were in retrospect. Oh well, at least I’m not Del Tachi.

[Xing]

Maybe those of us saying that classes have to be remote for now (even if that’s not at all ideal) had a point? ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

I'm out of university for almost a decade and don't have kids at school, so I'm not pretending to exactly know how things are going on the ground, but the problem with remote lessons is mostly infrastructure. Not all teachers have sufficient training with technical issues, let alone kids and their parents. Particularly in low income households. A small percentage might not even have internet access. Business as usual in schools for sure is irresponsible in the situation we're in, but I'm more than skeptical remote lessons can sort of replace schooling.

They can't fully replace schooling, which is why it's very far from ideal. It's basically the least bad solution, since a lot of schools just don't have the resources, space, or time in the day to provide in-person learning with distance. There are just so many hidden forms of contact and normal activities in school that can lead very quickly to an outbreak. It's only really possible if it's in an area that has virtually no cases and is pretty isolated. In areas which have a high positivity rate, schools often just have to close again after a day or two because outbreaks happen almost immediately. Teachers and union members in my district spent pretty much all spring and summer discussing the possibility of opening in the fall, and there were many potential risk factors that no one could come up with a solution for. Then, of course, cases went way up, and there was no question that we couldn't open schools yet.

I was unsure at first but then I agreed online schooling made more sense. However why are certain teacher unions opposing online live learning? Shouldn't the point be to make it as normal as possible?

I can't speak for other districts, but in my district, one issue that comes up a lot is that not all students have consistent access to high speed internet, and thus wouldn't be able to attend hour-long classes via video call. Our union didn't oppose this setup per se, but they did try to pressure the district to create a plan to get laptops to all students, since the district wasn't being clear on that.

The problem with "distance learning" isn't that teachers don't know how to use Zoom.
The problem is that 6-year olds absolutely should not be staring at a computer screen for 5 hours a day.

That's why we have professional development in our meetings before school starts to get teachers who don't know how to use the technology up to date. It's also why we make a schedule that gives students (especially younger ones) regular breaks and encourages activities which get students doing something away from the computer for a while. As I said, it's not a "good" solution, but putting students' lives as well as the lives of teachers, subs, instructional assistants, para professionals, administrators, and other educational staff at risk (not to mention those in their family as well) is a far worse one.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Basically everywhere is eventually going to see a surge in cases until they reach herd immunity.
Fortunately, many scientists now believe that herd immunity may be reached at about a 20% infection rate:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/the_americas/brazil-coronavirus-manaus-herd-immunity/2020/08/23/0eccda40-d80e-11ea-930e-d88518c57dcc_story.html

[WD]

Maybe those of us saying that classes have to be remote for now (even if that’s not at all ideal) had a point? ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

I'm out of university for almost a decade and don't have kids at school, so I'm not pretending to exactly know how things are going on the ground, but the problem with remote lessons is mostly infrastructure. Not all teachers have sufficient training with technical issues, let alone kids and their parents. Particularly in low income households. A small percentage might not even have internet access. Business as usual in schools for sure is irresponsible in the situation we're in, but I'm more than skeptical remote lessons can sort of replace schooling.

They can't fully replace schooling, which is why it's very far from ideal. It's basically the least bad solution, since a lot of schools just don't have the resources, space, or time in the day to provide in-person learning with distance. There are just so many hidden forms of contact and normal activities in school that can lead very quickly to an outbreak. It's only really possible if it's in an area that has virtually no cases and is pretty isolated. In areas which have a high positivity rate, schools often just have to close again after a day or two because outbreaks happen almost immediately. Teachers and union members in my district spent pretty much all spring and summer discussing the possibility of opening in the fall, and there were many potential risk factors that no one could come up with a solution for. Then, of course, cases went way up, and there was no question that we couldn't open schools yet.

I was unsure at first but then I agreed online schooling made more sense. However why are certain teacher unions opposing online live learning? Shouldn't the point be to make it as normal as possible?

I can't speak for other districts, but in my district, one issue that comes up a lot is that not all students have consistent access to high speed internet, and thus wouldn't be able to attend hour-long classes via video call. Our union didn't oppose this setup per se, but they did try to pressure the district to create a plan to get laptops to all students, since the district wasn't being clear on that.

The problem with "distance learning" isn't that teachers don't know how to use Zoom.
The problem is that 6-year olds absolutely should not be staring at a computer screen for 5 hours a day.

That's why we have professional development in our meetings before school starts to get teachers who don't know how to use the technology up to date. It's also why we make a schedule that gives students (especially younger ones) regular breaks and encourages activities which get students doing something away from the computer for a while. As I said, it's not a "good" solution, but putting students' lives as well as the lives of teachers, subs, instructional assistants, para professionals, administrators, and other educational staff at risk (not to mention those in their family as well) is a far worse one.

As a teacher, (I assume you are, sorry if thats a dumb question), do you think its possible that in-person teacher may resume sometime in 2021?

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

I'm doing in-person teaching right now (albeit at the college level).

I can't see why this would be objectionable as long as both the students and the teachers have to option to elect distance learning if they feel that they or members of their family are especially vulnerable to the virus.

[It’s so Joever]

I'm doing in-person teaching right now (albeit at the college level).

I can't see why this would be objectionable as long as both the students and the teachers have to option to elect distance learning if they feel that they or members of their family are especially vulnerable to the virus.

If you actually offer an option that allows students to take the classes they would have taken in person (with some obvious exceptions) then yes, that would be great. In my school district, about half the classes in-person are not offered online, even when it is easily possible for many of them.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

I don't know what's going on with some of the case numbers the past couple days.  South Dakota is also reporting a new record number of cases with 623.  Their previous record was 251, and yesterday they reported 66.

[Del Tachi]

https://twitter.com/maddow/status/1298683300836454400

Sometimes people who get fired have bad things to say about their former boss.  More at 11.