COVID-19 Megathread 6: Return of the Omicron

[Del Tachi]

People are done listening to the "Lockdown! Lockdown! Lockdown!" types.

We wouldn’t have as big of a problem if people listened to them in the first place.

Based on what?  Countries that locked down faster and harder than the U.S. (Japan, Spain, Australia, etc.) are themselves now in the midst of resurgent second waves because lockdowns don't work (at least they don't if your metric is limiting future case growth, which many here seem to imply).

Infectious disease is gonna infect, y'all

[Del Tachi]

Wow, who would’ve guessed that countries that have re-opened irresponsibly are surging in cases compared to countries that took this seriously and locked down from the start and stayed in lockdown until the virus was under control.

Preventative measures are gonna prevent, y’all.

So Spain and Australia have irresponsibly reopened?  They're surging now too

Mainstream takes like this have aged very poorly.

[Del Tachi]

The anti-vaccers comprise more than a third of our total population, and most of them are Republicans:

Poll: 35% of Americans, most Republicans would reject COVID-19 vaccine

More than one-third of U.S. adults and a majority of Republicans would not receive a free, government-approved COVID-19 vaccine if one was presently available, a Gallup survey showed Friday.

According to the poll, 35% of U.S. adults said they would not get the vaccine, compared to 65% who said they would. The share was the exact same 65/35 split among both men and women.

The age group that expressed the most skepticism about a vaccine were those between 50 and 64 years old (59%) -- and the group that was most accepting of a vaccine were between 18 and 29 (76%).

By race, the survey found that two-thirds of White Americans (67%) and 59% of non-Whites would take the vaccine, despite the virus more heavily affecting the Black and Latino communities.

At least younger adults are far more pro vax, I really had been scared we were regressing on this issue. Most of the anti vaxxers I know of are under 40.

Interesting that non-Whites are more anti-vax than Whites.  Seems to fly in the face of the "homeschooler" stereotype of anti-vaxxers that get so much airtime...

Anti-vaccination is really cross-ideological.  It encompasses some fundamental, social conservative types, some liberal crunchy granola "eco" types and then anti-NWO lunatics.

[Del Tachi]

https://twitter.com/ChrisJoseWSB/status/1292564766100279296

What on earth is the point of shutting down for *two* days?  Like, regardless of my personal views, I can at least comprehend arguments for not shutting down at all or shutting down for a few weeks, but what could possibly be accomplished by a two day shutdown?

From very letter you copied :

On Monday and Tuesday, the school will be thoroughly cleaned and disinfected, and the district will consult with the Department of Public Health to assess the environment and determine if there are any additional close contacts for confirmed cases who have not already been identified.

[Del Tachi]

https://twitter.com/ChrisJoseWSB/status/1292564766100279296

I see opening schools as normal has gone well.

Paging Bandit and DelTachi...

Cuomo also seems to agree that schools should reopen, so why is your criticism only reserved for red state governors like Kemp?  Opening schools is good public policy.

Since Feb. 1, 45 kids in the U.S. have died of COVID-19.  13,088 have died of all other causes.  Why does it make sense to keep schools closed?  Which of the kids at NPHS have been hospitalized, or had anything beyond mild symptoms?   

If you want to compare outcomes in the Sunbelt to New York and other hard lockdown states, go ahead.  That is more than enough evidence that the way to handle this is not panic, not to irreparably disrupt society and children's lives, but to treat COVID-19 as what it is - a manageable medical problem. 

[Del Tachi]

https://twitter.com/ChrisJoseWSB/status/1292564766100279296

What on earth is the point of shutting down for *two* days?  Like, regardless of my personal views, I can at least comprehend arguments for not shutting down at all or shutting down for a few weeks, but what could possibly be accomplished by a two day shutdown?

From very letter you copied (learn to red):

On Monday and Tuesday, the school will be thoroughly cleaned and disinfected, and the district will consult with the Department of Public Health to assess the environment and determine if there are any additional close contacts for confirmed cases who have not already been identified.

My big worry is that anti-vaxxism is going to prohibit people from getting this vaccine even if they want it.

What do you two think about that high school in Georgia which has had an outbreak in coronavirus cases? Will we see similar outbreaks at other schools? And does it provide justification to those who do not think we are ready to resume in-person instruction this fall?

It's impossible to give a blanket green light to every school reopening plan, because each district is charged with making decisions in the best interest of its students, faculty and community.  Anyone holding their hand out waiting for Trump, Fauci, or whoever to deliver them a perfect reopening plan on a silver platter will be seriously wanting (and that's how it should be).  Reopening schools for in-person instruction remains a top public health priority, as the CDC and several other professionals have now insisted for months. 

The situation at the high school in North Georgia is not surprising.  Georgia recently experienced a surge in cases, and it's very obvious from media reports that the school district did not do enough to make sure social distancing and other preventative measures we're being enforced at the school.  Nonetheless, consider that none of the 9 positive cases seem to have originated within the school and none of the cases appear to be serious (young people appear incredibly resilient to this virus).  The district now seems to be taking time to reassess how to best operate NPHS more safely, and all of the district's other schools remain open.  Hundreds of other districts in states around the country have also sent their students back into the classroom, the only thing that makes this Georgia case so extraordinary is a photo that went viral.   

[Del Tachi]

At this rate, we'll be close to a quarter million deaths by election day. It's so difficult to even wrap your head around that number of casualties.

Let me help you then:  over 2.8 million Americans died in 2019, and the median age of a COVID decadent is 78 years (same as U.S. life expectancy at birth)

[Del Tachi]

At this rate, we'll be close to a quarter million deaths by election day. It's so difficult to even wrap your head around that number of casualties.

Let me help you then:  over 2.8 million Americans died in 2019, and the median age of a COVID decadent is 78 years (same as U.S. life expectancy at birth)

The pro life party folks. The Republican party is pro fetus, but you are on your own after birth.

I’m pro choice lol

[Del Tachi]

https://mobile.twitter.com/6abc/status/1293891405736271873

Who knew that ending the $600 unemployment subsidy would mean folks would go out and apply for work?

[Del Tachi]

At this rate, we'll be close to a quarter million deaths by election day. It's so difficult to even wrap your head around that number of casualties.

Let me help you then:  over 2.8 million Americans died in 2019, and the median age of a COVID decadent is 78 years (same as U.S. life expectancy at birth)

Yes. Your "Party of Life" is a death-cult. We get it. You don't have to keep disgracing yourself to remind us.

Your "Party of Science" forces indefinite lockdowns, school closures and cheers for economic ruin all in response to a virus that kills maybe (on the high end) 1% of everyone who gets it (mostly the oldest and most infirm among us, no less).  I don't get it.  Do y'all think no one has ever died before?

[Del Tachi]

https://mobile.twitter.com/6abc/status/1293891405736271873

Who knew that ending the $600 unemployment subsidy would mean folks would go out and apply for work?

Huh?  Lower unemployment claims mean that fewer people got laid off, not that more are looking for work.

It's the number first-time unemployment claims (not "layoffs" per se), and continuing claims were also down by 600,000.  The total number of Americans claiming unemployment fell by more than 3 million to 28.26 million for the week ending July 25.  The data suggests enhanced benefits provide an incentive for people to stay away from returning to work. 

[Del Tachi]

https://mobile.twitter.com/6abc/status/1293891405736271873

Who knew that ending the $600 unemployment subsidy would mean folks would go out and apply for work?

Huh?  Lower unemployment claims mean that fewer people got laid off, not that more are looking for work.

It's the number first-time unemployment claims (not "layoffs" per se), and continuing claims were also down by 600,000.  The total number of Americans claiming unemployment fell by more than 3 million to 28.26 million for the week ending July 25.  The data suggests enhanced benefits provide an incentive for people to stay away from returning to work. 

Jobs would have to be opened, first. Which anecdotally, I know isn't happening. Which is fine because I already have a job but it would be great to have something lined up for tomorrow.

Also anecdotally, I know of several small retail businesses/restaurants who have been advertising positions and not receiving any applications.  I've even seen national reporting suggesting such.

[Del Tachi]

https://mobile.twitter.com/6abc/status/1293891405736271873

Who knew that ending the $600 unemployment subsidy would mean folks would go out and apply for work?

Huh?  Lower unemployment claims mean that fewer people got laid off, not that more are looking for work.

It's the number first-time unemployment claims (not "layoffs" per se), and continuing claims were also down by 600,000.  The total number of Americans claiming unemployment fell by more than 3 million to 28.26 million for the week ending July 25.  The data suggests enhanced benefits provide an incentive for people to stay away from returning to work. 

Um, the $600 benefit was still being paid through that time period.

Maybe it's just that the economy is continuing to climb out of a big hole?  I think you're trying too hard to tie these statistics to the end of the extra unemployment benefit.

Um, it has been widely reported for months that  the enhanced benefits were set to end July 31 so I can believe an uptick in job-seeking behavior during the month of July.

I agree we are climbing out of a big hole, but enhanced benefits make it a slower climb. 

[Del Tachi]

Stanford study shows teens who vape are 5x-7x more likely to develop COVID-19 symptoms, even controlling for confounding factors

[Del Tachi]

A good article about the CDC and the tracking of "excess deaths"

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-excess-deaths-tally-in-the-us-is-204691-in-7-months-so-covid-19-deaths-might-be-undercounted-2020-08-13?siteid=yhoof2

Only 16,000 of the excess deaths are not included in the official COVID counts.  There’s plenty of reason to think that lockdowns are also drivers of excess mortality, especially since so many “non-essential” medical visits/procedures were being cancelled/delayed earlier this year. 

[Del Tachi]

https://twitter.com/cnn/status/1298582772932648960?s=21

I eagerly await for Del Tachi to find some excuse for this atrocious and horrifying move.

Or you can just read the actual CDC guidance for yourself... (hard to do, I know )

A negative test does not mean that you will not develop an infection from the close contact or contract an infection at a later time.  Testing asymptomatic individuals early after a confirmed contact may produce a false sense of security if the test returns negative.  The CDC still recommends that those exposed to a confirmed case take appropriate mitigation actions (like isolating for 14 days), even in the absence of a positive test.

[Del Tachi]

https://twitter.com/maddow/status/1298683300836454400

Sometimes people who get fired have bad things to say about their former boss.  More at 11. 

[Del Tachi]

https://twitter.com/DecoherenceWave/status/1300939069610885121

This is not good.

The SA article opens with a quote from noted COVID-19 expert Alyssa Milano, lol

33% of the study cohort had severe enough cases to have recovered in the hospital, and the study group had significantly higher rates of obesity, hypertension, diabetes and COPD than a risk-matched control group (doesn't really seem like it's that risk-matched to me, hmm....)

The risks to the healthy remain relatively minor.

[Del Tachi]

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/fauci-predicts-safe-effective-coronavirus-vaccine-end-year-n1239055

Music to my freaking ears.

Moderna or Pfizer announcing a vaccine (to much fanfare) is going to be 2020's
"October Surprise"

[Del Tachi]

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/fauci-predicts-safe-effective-coronavirus-vaccine-end-year-n1239055

Music to my freaking ears.

Moderna or Pfizer announcing a vaccine (to much fanfare) is going to be 2020's
"October Surprise"

What exactly does it mean to "announce a vaccine"?

You mean general FDA approval?  I think that's pretty unlikely by October.
They may be able to release some preliminary Phase III trial results by then, but these will be pretty inscrutable to the general public.

If big pharma wants Trump to win, they'll find a way to really juice the PR machine re: vaccine progress around the end of October

[Del Tachi]

https://twitter.com/ZekeJMiller/status/1309529806145490945

Florida reported 2,851 new cases yesterday.

Good. The more overwhelmed hospitals, the better for Biden.

See folks, it really is true...liberals don't want America to get better unless there's a Democrat in the White House.  The reaction to the pandemic is (and always has been) overtly political. 

[Del Tachi]

https://twitter.com/ZekeJMiller/status/1309529806145490945

Florida reported 2,851 new cases yesterday.

Good. The more overwhelmed hospitals, the better for Biden.

See folks, it really is true...liberals don't want America to get better unless there's a Democrat in the White House.  The reaction to the pandemic is (and always has been) overtly political. 

Dr. Lurker is the only one taking that position.

Just like Obama was the only one who believed rural Americans "clinged to guns and religion?"  or Hillary Clinton the only one who believed Trump's supporters were "a basket of deplorables?"

No, Forumlurker is only giving voice to how the liberal establishment and their supporters have turned COVID into a political weapon and how they justify unequally applied restrictions and lockdowns. 

[Del Tachi]

It didn't need to be political to save hundreds of thousands, maybe even millions, of lives. This is the latest example of the Republican Party-not Trump in particular but the whole party-being a dangerous ideologically extremist outlier, incapable of good governance. Hopefully they receive a landslide defeat, and this election can begin to repair the damage and shift the Republican Party into becoming a sane centre-right party.

What does this even mean?  Lockdowns were always a political choice, and it will be a political decision to end them.  The only way they can be justified is by a subjective weighting of the associated costs and benefits, and such an assessment is inherently debatable

[Del Tachi]

https://twitter.com/AlexBerenson/status/1313879186126319617

[Del Tachi]

https://twitter.com/AlexBerenson/status/1313879186126319617

Oh yes, I love Covid-19.
Clearly I enjoy the fact that our president killed 200,000 people, I just love worrying for my own life, I just get such a high off of watching the World suffer. Seriously just shut the f**k up. You have been so consistently wrong on the trajectory of Covid-19 and the efficacy of masks, you have no reason to post anything here anymore.

It’s telling that you care more about what some hippie old fart thinks than about the thousands of people who have lost their lives and the serious repercussions of this pandemic. We can argue and disagree on the best way to fight the pandemic, but your constant denial of the seriousness of the situation is getting older than your “I am totally still a moderate Republican” act.

Given what passes for "news" in this thread and all across USGD, what Jane Fonda says re: COVID-19 certainly makes the cut for post-worthiness.  I don't care what she says, but very few people here care about "who" says something as long as conforms to their pre-existing worldview. 

The fact that you believe our president is personally responsible for the deaths of 200k people just proves that you are not a serious poster, and you never have been on this issue.  Extended lockdowns, school closures and other such restrictions are highly damaging, unsustainable and worse than the disease itself.  Continued insistence on these measures and "social distance" has probably permanently hampered the resiliency of our country and communities.  At every step of the way, you have refused to treat COVID as what it is - a manageable public health problem, and instead defaulted to the politics of fear and death obsession.