COVID-19 Megathread 6: Return of the Omicron

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Maybe it's a bit too early to say this with certainty, but the last week really seems consistent with the idea that we are - once again - plateauing at a disastrously high number of daily cases.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Maybe it's a bit too early to say this with certainty, but the last week really seems consistent with the idea that we are - once again - plateauing at a disastrously high number of daily cases.

Cases this week didn’t decline nearly as much as last week because there were a lot of testing and reporting problems last week that suppressed case numbers.  

Besides the weather related problems in FL, there were apparently administrative screw ups in CA that prevented the processing of ~300k tests dating back several weeks.  This testing backlog was being gradually processed this week, which is why case counts in CA shot up so suddenly.

I really hope that explains it. If we're still seeing 50-55K cases next week, we're in even worse trouble than I thought we would be.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

A less disastrous week than last week, reasonable to think reporting lags were a significant part of what had looked like the start of a plateau then.

That being said, 45-50K new cases most days this week is still a disaster. That's still more than twice what we were seeing in late spring, and the daily death toll is not relenting yet.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

https://twitter.com/tarahaelle/status/1295524456585207811

When everything is definitely going according to plan.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Responding to an outcry from medical experts, Food and Drug Administration Commissioner Stephen Hahn on Tuesday apologized for overstating the life-saving benefits of treating COVID-19 patients with convalescent plasma.

Scientists and medical experts have been pushing back against the claims about the treatment since President Donald Trump’s announcement on Sunday that the FDA had decided to issue emergency authorization for convalescent plasma, taken from patients who have recovered from the coronavirus and rich in antibodies.

Trump hailed the decision as a historic breakthrough even though the treatment’s value has not been established. The announcement on the eve of Trump’s Republican National Convention raised suspicions that it was politically motivated to offset critics of the president’s handling of the pandemic.

https://apnews.com/a7f0e8aac34a860ad502912564681b7c

Yes it "raises suspicions" in the same way that toilet paper stuck to someone's shoe raises suspicions that they were recently in a bathroom.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

The problem with "distance learning" isn't that teachers don't know how to use Zoom.
The problem is that 6-year olds absolutely should not be staring at a computer screen for 5 hours a day.

The problem is that there is literally no good way to do education during a pandemic, and until we actually get the pandemic fully under control that is going to remain the case.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

The updated numbers for COVID-19 in the U.S. are in for 8/27 per: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

I'm keeping track of these updates daily and updating at the end of the day, whenever all states finish reporting for that day.

New - Substituting the Δ Change metric as of 7/13 on dates starting from 7/5:
ΔW Change: Comparisons of Weekly Day-to-day Growth or Decline of COVID-19 Spread/Deaths.

• IE: Comparing the numbers to the same day of last week, are we flattening the curve enough?

Σ Increase: A day's contribution to overall percentage growth of COVID-19 cases/deaths.

• IE: What's the overall change in the total?

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8/16: <Sunday>

• Cases: 5,566,632 (+36,843 | ΔW Change: ↓25.90% | Σ Increase: ↑0.67%)
• Deaths: 173,128 (+522 | ΔW Change: ↓4.57% | Σ Increase: ↑0.30%)

8/17: <M>

• Cases: 5,612,027 (+45,395 | ΔW Change: ↓12.71% | Σ Increase: ↑0.82%)
• Deaths: 173,716 (+588 | ΔW Change: ↑2.26% | Σ Increase: ↑0.34%)

8/18: <T>

• Cases: 5,655,974 (+43,947 | ΔW Change: ↓19.38% | Σ Increase: ↑0.82%)
• Deaths: 175,074 (+1,358 | ΔW Change: ↓12.78% | Σ Increase: ↑0.78%)

8/19: <W>

• Cases: 5,700,931 (+44,957 | ΔW Change: ↓17.27% | Σ Increase: ↑0.79%)
• Deaths: 176,337 (+1,263 | ΔW Change: ↓8.61% | Σ Increase: ↑0.72%)

8/20: <Þ>

• Cases: 5,746,272 (+45,341 | ΔW Change: ↓18.10% | Σ Increase: ↑0.80%)
• Deaths: 177,424 (+1,087 | ΔW Change: ↓2.95% | Σ Increase: ↑0.62%)

8/21: <F>

• Cases: 5,796,727 (+50,455 | ΔW Change: ↓16.74% | Σ Increase: ↑0.88%)
• Deaths: 179,200 (+1,776 | ΔW Change: ↑58.57% | Σ Increase: ↑1.00%)

8/22: <S>

• Cases: 5,841,428 (+44,701| ΔW Change: ↓20.92% | Σ Increase: ↑0.77%)
• Deaths: 180,174 (+974 | ΔW Change: ↓9.06% | Σ Increase: ↑0.54%)

8/23: <Sunday>

• Cases: 5,874,146 (+32,718| ΔW Change: ↓11.20% | Σ Increase: ↑0.56%)
• Deaths: 180,604 (+430 | ΔW Change: ↓17.62% | Σ Increase: ↑0.24%)

8/24: <M>

• Cases: 5,915,630 (+41,484| ΔW Change: ↓8.62% | Σ Increase: ↑0.71%)
• Deaths: 181,114 (+510 | ΔW Change: ↓13.27% | Σ Increase: ↑0.28%)

8/25: <T>

• Cases: 5,955,728 (+40,098| ΔW Change: ↓8.76% | Σ Increase: ↑0.68%)
• Deaths: 182,404 (+1,290 | ΔW Change: ↓5.01% | Σ Increase: ↑0.71%)

8/26 (Yesterday): <W>

• Cases: 6,000,365 (+44,637| ΔW Change: ↓0.71% | Σ Increase: ↑0.75%)
• Deaths: 183,653 (+1,249 | ΔW Change: ↓1.11% | Σ Increase: ↑0.68%)

8/27 (Today): <Þ>

• Cases: 6,046,634 (+46,269| ΔW Change: ↑2.05% | Σ Increase: ↑0.77%)
• Deaths: 184,796 (+1,143 | ΔW Change: ↑5.15% | Σ Increase: ↑0.62%)

Those last four days are really starting to look like a plateau again. Disastrous.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

I've seen those posts on social media all day how, supposedly, only 9,000 people have died from the virus in the US.

I have too. It's only counting cases with Covid-19 as the sole cause of death; in most cases there were co-morbidities.

Which to me is horse****. All that's saying is, here's a reason why the virus killed them. But even in the other 9000 there's some reason why they died and not so many others, even if it's a not medical comorbidity.

Like yeah we know non-very healthy people have a higher risk of dying. A lot of people have comorbidities!

This precisely. What these statistics mostly indicate is that the United States was not exactly a healthy country even before COVID.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

The extent to which this country has collectively just completely given up on actually suppressing the virus is infuriating. Plateauing at 40-45K new cases per day most days is disastrous and inexcusable.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

https://twitter.com/DecoherenceWave/status/1300939069610885121

This is not good.

The "herd immunity" nonsense is looking even more insane now.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

If herd immunity isn't real, how do we explain the decline in cases in places that were already hit the hardest?

It isn't a strategy. It's just something that's already happened. We can't reverse it now that it's happened already.

I'm not saying it isn't real, I'm saying don't pretend there aren't *massive* negative consequences when it happens.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

9/13: <Sunday>

• Cases: 6,708,458 (+31,857 | ΔW Change: ↑9.48% | Σ Increase: ↑0.48%)
• Deaths: 198,520 (+392 | ΔW Change: ↓9.26% | Σ Increase: ↑0.20%)

9/14 (Yesterday): <M>

• Cases: 6,749,289 (+40,831 | ΔW Change: ↑61.23% | Σ Increase: ↑0.61%)
• Deaths: 199,000 (+480 | ΔW Change: ↑69.01% | Σ Increase: ↑0.24%)

9/15 (Today): <T>

• Cases: 6,787,737 (+38,448 | ΔW Change: ↑34.17% | Σ Increase: ↑0.57%)
• Deaths: 200,178 (+1,178 | ΔW Change: ↑136.55% | Σ Increase: ↑0.59%)

Well, we just broke the 200,000 COVID-19 American deaths mark, and on top of that, that's not even the worst news. It's the fact that we're on another upswing again, it seems, big time.

Last week was labor day and that kind of screws up the numbers. Should wait until the end of the week and see what it looks like.

Agree with this, the data last week looked like there was probably some substantial reporting lags. Though I think there is little reason to believe that things are at anything better than a near 40K plateau in new daily cases, which is still terrible.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

9/13: <Sunday>

• Cases: 6,708,458 (+31,857 | ΔW Change: ↑9.48% | Σ Increase: ↑0.48%)
• Deaths: 198,520 (+392 | ΔW Change: ↓9.26% | Σ Increase: ↑0.20%)

9/14 (Yesterday): <M>

• Cases: 6,749,289 (+40,831 | ΔW Change: ↑61.23% | Σ Increase: ↑0.61%)
• Deaths: 199,000 (+480 | ΔW Change: ↑69.01% | Σ Increase: ↑0.24%)

9/15 (Today): <T>

• Cases: 6,787,737 (+38,448 | ΔW Change: ↑34.17% | Σ Increase: ↑0.57%)
• Deaths: 200,178 (+1,178 | ΔW Change: ↑136.55% | Σ Increase: ↑0.59%)

Well, we just broke the 200,000 COVID-19 American deaths mark, and on top of that, that's not even the worst news. It's the fact that we're on another upswing again, it seems, big time.

Last week was labor day and that kind of screws up the numbers. Should wait until the end of the week and see what it looks like.

Agree with this, the data last week looked like there was probably some substantial reporting lags. Though I think there is little reason to believe that things are at anything better than a near 40K plateau in new daily cases, which is still terrible.

Yes, but there is a lot more red popping up since before the weekend hit. We'll see what happens by the end of the week. We'll have a better idea of how it's looking like by then.

Agreed.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

https://twitter.com/nowthisnews/status/1306408278755164160

Pretty sure regardless of whether you put it in binary, hexadecimal, Roman numerals, or Egyptian hieroglyphs the end result would be the same: horrifying failure.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

The updated numbers for COVID-19 in the U.S. are in for 9/17 per: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

I'm keeping track of these updates daily and updating at the end of the day, whenever all states finish reporting for that day.

ΔW Change: Comparisons of Weekly Day-to-day Growth or Decline of COVID-19 Spread/Deaths.

• IE: Comparing the numbers to the same day of last week, are we flattening the curve enough?

Σ Increase: A day's contribution to overall percentage growth of COVID-19 cases/deaths.

• IE: What's the overall change in the total?

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9/6: <Sunday>

• Cases: 6,460,250 (+29,098 | ΔW Change: ↓14.81% | Σ Increase: ↑0.45%)
• Deaths: 193,250 (+432 | ΔW Change: ↑17.07% | Σ Increase: ↑0.22%)

9/7: <M>

• Cases: 6,485,575 (+25,325 | ΔW Change: ↓34.13% | Σ Increase: ↑0.39%)
• Deaths: 193,534 (+284 | ΔW Change: ↓44.53% | Σ Increase: ↑0.15%)

9/8: <T>

• Cases: 6,514,231 (+28,656 | ΔW Change: ↓37.55% | Σ Increase: ↑0.44%)
• Deaths: 194,032 (+498 | ΔW Change: ↓57.22% | Σ Increase: ↑0.26%)

9/9: <W>

• Cases: 6,549,475 (+35,244 | ΔW Change: ↑6.27% | Σ Increase: ↑0.54%)
• Deaths: 195,239 (+1,207 | ΔW Change: ↑13.44% | Σ Increase: ↑0.62%)

9/10: <Þ>

• Cases: 6,588,163 (+38,688 | ΔW Change: ↓20.81% | Σ Increase: ↑0.59%)
• Deaths: 196,328 (+1,089 | ΔW Change: ↓0.46% | Σ Increase: ↑0.56%)

9/11: <F>

• Cases: 6,636,247 (+48,084 | ΔW Change: ↓10.65% | Σ Increase: ↑0.73%)
• Deaths: 197,421 (+1,093 | ΔW Change: ↑3.80% | Σ Increase: ↑0.56%)

9/12: <S>

• Cases: 6,676,601 (+40,354 | ΔW Change: ↓4.14% | Σ Increase: ↑0.61%)
• Deaths: 198,128 (+707 | ΔW Change: ↑0.00% | Σ Increase: ↑0.36%)

9/13: <Sunday>

• Cases: 6,708,458 (+31,857 | ΔW Change: ↑9.48% | Σ Increase: ↑0.48%)
• Deaths: 198,520 (+392 | ΔW Change: ↓9.26% | Σ Increase: ↑0.20%)

9/14: <M>

• Cases: 6,749,289 (+40,831 | ΔW Change: ↑61.23% | Σ Increase: ↑0.61%)
• Deaths: 199,000 (+480 | ΔW Change: ↑69.01% | Σ Increase: ↑0.24%)

9/15: <T>

• Cases: 6,787,737 (+38,448 | ΔW Change: ↑34.17% | Σ Increase: ↑0.57%)
• Deaths: 200,178 (+1,178 | ΔW Change: ↑136.55% | Σ Increase: ↑0.59%)

9/16 (Yesterday): <W>

• Cases: 6,828,301 (+40,564 | ΔW Change: ↑15.09% | Σ Increase: ↑0.60%)
• Deaths: 201,348 (+1,170 | ΔW Change: ↓3.07% | Σ Increase: ↑0.58%)

9/17 (Today): <Þ>

• Cases: 6,874,553 (+46,252 | ΔW Change: ↑19.55% | Σ Increase: ↑0.68%)
• Deaths: 202,213 (+865 | ΔW Change: ↓20.57% | Σ Increase: ↑0.43%)

I'm a bit hesitant to compare anything to last week, given how suddenly we saw a lot of new case totals drop around the Labor Day holiday, but it seems notable that most days this week are either similar to or worse than they were *two* weeks ago.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

https://twitter.com/jbendery/status/1308075595130167301

Seems bad

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Oh great we're heading right back up to 60K new cases per day, if the current trends hold.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

It's fairly clear that the virus is going completely out of control. Something has to be done soon.

But what? Everything we've done thus far has failed.

Well, honestly, I don't know at this point. It's above my pay grade, but an unchecked pandemic will lead to massive deaths.

At least shut down indoor dining and bars. Every bit of evidence I have seen suggests that is the most dangerous public activity going on.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1317822838519128068

Still on this bull****

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

The updated numbers for COVID-19 in the U.S. are in for 10/19 per: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

I'm keeping track of these updates daily and updating at the end of the day, whenever all states finish reporting for that day.

ΔW Change: Comparisons of Weekly Day-to-day Growth or Decline of COVID-19 Spread/Deaths.

• IE: Comparing the numbers to the same day of last week, are we flattening the curve enough?

Σ Increase: A day's contribution to overall percentage growth of COVID-19 cases/deaths.

• IE: What's the overall change in the total?

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10/11: <Sunday>

• Cases: 7,991,069 (+45,564 | ΔW Change: ↑26.34% | Σ Increase: ↑0.57%)
• Deaths: 219,695 (+413 | ΔW Change: ↑23.65% | Σ Increase: ↑0.19%)

10/12: <M>

• Cases: 8,037,789 (+46,720 | ΔW Change: ↑9.33% | Σ Increase: ↑0.58%)
• Deaths: 220,011 (+316 | ΔW Change: ↓24.94% | Σ Increase: ↑0.14%)

10/13: <T>

• Cases: 8,090,080 (+52,291 | ΔW Change: ↓2.22% | Σ Increase: ↑0.65%)
• Deaths: 220,841 (+830 | ΔW Change: ↓13.72% | Σ Increase: ↑0.38%)

10/14: <W>

• Cases: 8,150,043 (+59,963 | ΔW Change: ↑12.13% | Σ Increase: ↑0.74%)
• Deaths: 221,843 (+1,002 | ΔW Change: ↑4.16% | Σ Increase: ↑0.45%)

10/15: <Þ>

• Cases: 8,216,315 (+66,272 | ΔW Change: ↑15.51% | Σ Increase: ↑0.81%)
• Deaths: 222,717 (+874 | ΔW Change: ↓8.39% | Σ Increase: ↑0.39%)

10/16: <F>

• Cases: 8,286,824 (+70,509 | ΔW Change: ↑15.82% | Σ Increase: ↑0.86%)
• Deaths: 223,625 (+908 | ΔW Change: ↓0.22% | Σ Increase: ↑0.41%)

10/17: <S>

• Cases: 8,342,665 (+55,841 | ΔW Change: ↑9.43% | Σ Increase: ↑0.67%)
• Deaths: 224,282 (+657 | ΔW Change: ↑3.63% | Σ Increase: ↑0.29%)

10/18 (Yesterday): <Sunday>

• Cases: 8,387,790 (+45,125 | ΔW Change: ↓0.96% | Σ Increase: ↑0.54%)
• Deaths: 224,730 (+448 | ΔW Change: ↑8.47% | Σ Increase: ↑0.20%)

10/19 (Today): <M>

• Cases: 8,456,653 (+68,863 | ΔW Change: ↑47.40% | Σ Increase: ↑0.82%)
• Deaths: 225,222 (+492 | ΔW Change: ↑55.70% | Σ Increase: ↑0.22%)

I'm pretty sure Pennsylvania reported two days worth of totals today. Do we know of any other states that had something like that happen? Otherwise a 50% week-over-week change is horrifyingly bad.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

I'm pretty sure Pennsylvania reported two days worth of totals today. Do we know of any other states that had something like that happen? Otherwise a 50% week-over-week change is horrifyingly bad.

Wisconsin reported 3 days. I think Connecticut and Rhode Island did too.

Okay, Wisconsin would explain a lot, given that they're having a pretty substantial spike there.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1321051933654863872

I think it was like 50 days ago when he first said we were rounding the turn.

There is some *amazing* projection in Republicans claiming that COVID is just media hype and that the press will stop talking about it after this election, when these exact same Republicans talked about Ebola constantly in 2014 before the election and then immediately forgot about it after that election.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

The updated numbers for COVID-19 in the U.S. are in for 10/28 per: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

I'm keeping track of these updates daily and updating at the end of the day, whenever all states finish reporting for that day.

ΔW Change: Comparisons of Weekly Day-to-day Growth or Decline of COVID-19 Spread/Deaths.

• IE: Comparing the numbers to the same day of last week, are we flattening the curve enough?

Σ Increase: A day's contribution to overall percentage growth of COVID-19 cases/deaths.

• IE: What's the overall change in the total?

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10/18: <Sunday>

• Cases: 8,387,790 (+45,125 | ΔW Change: ↓0.96% | Σ Increase: ↑0.54%)
• Deaths: 224,730 (+448 | ΔW Change: ↑8.47% | Σ Increase: ↑0.20%)

10/19: <M>

• Cases: 8,456,653 (+68,863 | ΔW Change: ↑47.40% | Σ Increase: ↑0.82%)
• Deaths: 225,222 (+492 | ΔW Change: ↑55.70% | Σ Increase: ↑0.22%)

10/20: <T>

• Cases: 8,519,665 (+63,012 | ΔW Change: ↑17.01% | Σ Increase: ↑0.75%)
• Deaths: 226,138 (+916 | ΔW Change: ↑10.36% | Σ Increase: ↑0.41%)

10/21: <W>

• Cases: 8,584,819 (+65,154 | ΔW Change: ↑8.66% | Σ Increase: ↑0.76%)
• Deaths: 227,409 (+1,271 | ΔW Change: ↑26.85% | Σ Increase: ↑0.56%)

10/22: <Þ>

• Cases: 8,661,651 (+76,832 | ΔW Change: ↑15.93% | Σ Increase: ↑0.89%)
• Deaths: 228,381 (+972 | ΔW Change: ↑11.21% | Σ Increase: ↑0.43%)

10/23: <F>

• Cases: 8,746,953 (+85,302 | ΔW Change: ↑20.98% | Σ Increase: ↑0.98%)
• Deaths: 229,284 (+903 | ΔW Change: ↓0.55% | Σ Increase: ↑0.40%)

10/24: <S>

• Cases: 8,827,932 (+80,979 | ΔW Change: ↑45.02% | Σ Increase: ↑0.93%)
• Deaths: 230,068 (+784 | ΔW Change: ↑19.33% | Σ Increase: ↑0.34%)

10/25: <Sunday>

• Cases: 8,889,179 (+61,247 | ΔW Change: ↑35.73% | Σ Increase: ↑0.69%)
• Deaths: 230,510 (+442 | ΔW Change: ↓1.34% | Σ Increase: ↑0.19%)

10/26: <M>

• Cases: 8,962,783 (+73,604 | ΔW Change: ↑6.88% | Σ Increase: ↑0.83%)
• Deaths: 231,045 (+535 | ΔW Change: ↑8.74% | Σ Increase: ↑0.23%)

10/27 (Yesterday): <T>

• Cases: 9,037,951 (+75,168 | ΔW Change: ↑19.29% | Σ Increase: ↑0.84%)
• Deaths: 232,085 (+1,040 | ΔW Change: ↑13.54% | Σ Increase: ↑0.45%)

10/28 (Today): <W>

• Cases: 9,121,800 (+83,849 | ΔW Change: ↑28.69% | Σ Increase: ↑0.93%)
• Deaths: 233,137 (+1,052 | ΔW Change: ↓17.23% | Σ Increase: ↑0.45%)

We're easily going to hit a daily total of 90K before the end of the week, and if the week-over-week numbers continue the way they have so far this week we're actually on pace for over 100K on Friday.

What an absolute catastrophe.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

We sure are rounding that ****ing turn.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

10 million here we come