Canadian Election 2019

[MaxQue]

With all the talk of votes vs seat pluralities, it's interesting how when it comes to Student Vote Canada, the third place party in votes got the most seats, and the party with the most votes was third place in seats.  (And nobody got more than 25.1% of the vote.)
 https://studentvote.ca/canada/results/

Interesting to see it broken down by province; the low Bloc total in Quebec (both votes and ridings) is encouraging.

We have known for a while that separatism is a dead issue among the younger generations, with the exception being the 'radical-on-everything' types that are lockstep with the QS. Those born recently only have memory of the Bloc as a separatist party, so even their movement away on that issue might not help with the youth. There are different battles to be fought, so why bother picking up the banner left by your parents when the Bloc doesn't own your issues the best. Additionally rural Quebec has that rural problem where the youth are heading for the Liberal/NDP cities and not staying in communities more tied to the Bloc.

Totally wrong, there is huge overlap between QS voters and NDP voters. QS voters don't vote Bloc.

[Oryxslayer]

With all the talk of votes vs seat pluralities, it's interesting how when it comes to Student Vote Canada, the third place party in votes got the most seats, and the party with the most votes was third place in seats.  (And nobody got more than 25.1% of the vote.)
 https://studentvote.ca/canada/results/

Interesting to see it broken down by province; the low Bloc total in Quebec (both votes and ridings) is encouraging.

We have known for a while that separatism is a dead issue among the younger generations, with the exception being the 'radical-on-everything' types that are lockstep with the QS. Those born recently only have memory of the Bloc as a separatist party, so even their movement away on that issue might not help with the youth. There are different battles to be fought, so why bother picking up the banner left by your parents when the Bloc doesn't own your issues the best. Additionally rural Quebec has that rural problem where the youth are heading for the Liberal/NDP cities and not staying in communities more tied to the Bloc.

Totally wrong, there is huge overlap between QS voters and NDP voters. QS voters don't vote Bloc.

Yes, and? I wasn't implying QS voters picked the Bloc, only their political views on that issue align with said position on the separatist-federalist scale. The QS/NDP alignment does get a little weird at times like when the NDP had a separatist nominated this cycle form the QS, despite the official party mantra. I'm the guy who mapped quebec 2018 by poll, I know where the QS is strong and how their strength in Sherbrooke/Plateau/etc correlates with the NDP and visa versa.

[adma]

As I said at the beginning, one can't even come close to saying that there's a long-term shift going on there, but the results are anomalous enough to make me very interested to see what happens in that region next time.

And perhaps a leapfrog hint of that is in how Renfrew-Nipissing-Pembroke--probably the most "Northern/Rural-Prairie-esque" of the Southern Ontario ridings, demographically and economically--went from being a Liberal holdout in 1984 to a Cheryl Gallant Conservative stronghold in this century.  (Though the NDP's never really been a factor there, though there were hints of that provincially as recently as the 1970s)

[DistingFlyer]

As I said at the beginning, one can't even come close to saying that there's a long-term shift going on there, but the results are anomalous enough to make me very interested to see what happens in that region next time.

And perhaps a leapfrog hint of that is in how Renfrew-Nipissing-Pembroke--probably the most "Northern/Rural-Prairie-esque" of the Southern Ontario ridings, demographically and economically--went from being a Liberal holdout in 1984 to a Cheryl Gallant Conservative stronghold in this century.  (Though the NDP's never really been a factor there, though there were hints of that provincially as recently as the 1970s)

Yes, and John Yakabuski was able to do the same thing at the provincial level: he made it the only riding to switch from Liberal to Tory in 2003, and turned it into the safest Conservative seat in the province in 2011 (as well as the safest seat for any party in 2011 & 2018). Personal popularity has a lot to do with both members' successes, I'm sure, but it could also be a hint of something more. Certainly the more populist tone of the post-reunion Tories (and their Alliance predecessors) seemed to do reasonably well in these areas, though curiously the Prairie-based populism of Diefenbaker did not work its charms here six decades ago.

[MaxQue]

With all the talk of votes vs seat pluralities, it's interesting how when it comes to Student Vote Canada, the third place party in votes got the most seats, and the party with the most votes was third place in seats.  (And nobody got more than 25.1% of the vote.)
 https://studentvote.ca/canada/results/

Interesting to see it broken down by province; the low Bloc total in Quebec (both votes and ridings) is encouraging.

We have known for a while that separatism is a dead issue among the younger generations, with the exception being the 'radical-on-everything' types that are lockstep with the QS. Those born recently only have memory of the Bloc as a separatist party, so even their movement away on that issue might not help with the youth. There are different battles to be fought, so why bother picking up the banner left by your parents when the Bloc doesn't own your issues the best. Additionally rural Quebec has that rural problem where the youth are heading for the Liberal/NDP cities and not staying in communities more tied to the Bloc.

Totally wrong, there is huge overlap between QS voters and NDP voters. QS voters don't vote Bloc.

Yes, and? I wasn't implying QS voters picked the Bloc, only their political views on that issue align with said position on the separatist-federalist scale. The QS/NDP alignment does get a little weird at times like when the NDP had a separatist nominated this cycle form the QS, despite the official party mantra. I'm the guy who mapped quebec 2018 by poll, I know where the QS is strong and how their strength in Sherbrooke/Plateau/etc correlates with the NDP and visa versa.

QS is left-wing first, independentist second.

The NDP recognizes Quebec is able to leave after a 50%+1 referendum. If you are a pro-independence left-winger, it makes sense to say that you want Quebec to be a country, but that will be decided in Quebec City, not Ottawa and that Canada should be improved in the mean time.

[adma]

With all the talk of votes vs seat pluralities, it's interesting how when it comes to Student Vote Canada, the third place party in votes got the most seats, and the party with the most votes was third place in seats.  (And nobody got more than 25.1% of the vote.)
 https://studentvote.ca/canada/results/

Interesting to see it broken down by province; the low Bloc total in Quebec (both votes and ridings) is encouraging.

We have known for a while that separatism is a dead issue among the younger generations, with the exception being the 'radical-on-everything' types that are lockstep with the QS. Those born recently only have memory of the Bloc as a separatist party, so even their movement away on that issue might not help with the youth. There are different battles to be fought, so why bother picking up the banner left by your parents when the Bloc doesn't own your issues the best. Additionally rural Quebec has that rural problem where the youth are heading for the Liberal/NDP cities and not staying in communities more tied to the Bloc.

Totally wrong, there is huge overlap between QS voters and NDP voters. QS voters don't vote Bloc.

Yes, and? I wasn't implying QS voters picked the Bloc, only their political views on that issue align with said position on the separatist-federalist scale. The QS/NDP alignment does get a little weird at times like when the NDP had a separatist nominated this cycle form the QS, despite the official party mantra. I'm the guy who mapped quebec 2018 by poll, I know where the QS is strong and how their strength in Sherbrooke/Plateau/etc correlates with the NDP and visa versa.

Though keep in mind that voting choices don't necessarily align with views; and also, if hardcore separatism is dead issue with younger voters, so is hardcore federalism.  Remember: younger voters have lived under a PQ government for some portion of their lives, the universe didn't fall down, they operated and were accepted as a natural party of government.  The federalism-vs-separatism battles are old hat, it's all a bunch of aging hippies and stuffed suits to them.  And QS is "post" all of those battles--as is CAQ (or even the present-day Bloc, adjusting to CAQ-centric reality), in its way.

If anything, it's a sort of international urban cosmopolitanism that's defined young voting preferences--QS's youth appeal is founded upon its being fashionably left, not upon its separatist leanings (and even when said leanings are accounted for, they're subsumed within more generic smash-the-state sentiment).  And even the "soft QS" vote can be said to overlap with a certain "Steven Guilbeault Liberal" element--and remember that a large part of Justin's Papineau is represented by QS provincially (which played out in the *NDP* being a strong if distant second, ahead of the Bloc--their strongest showing in a Quebec riding they did not win in 2011)

[adma]

Yes, and John Yakabuski was able to do the same thing at the provincial level: he made it the only riding to switch from Liberal to Tory in 2003, and turned it into the safest Conservative seat in the province in 2011 (as well as the safest seat for any party in 2011 & 2018). Personal popularity has a lot to do with both members' successes, I'm sure, but it could also be a hint of something more. Certainly the more populist tone of the post-reunion Tories (and their Alliance predecessors) seemed to do reasonably well in these areas, though curiously the Prairie-based populism of Diefenbaker did not work its charms here six decades ago.

When it comes to six decades ago, I wonder whether Lester Pearson's regional representation played a factor.  (Also helping the RNP Libs of yore was a heavy Catholic undercurrent, not just Franco- but also Irish and Polish--a demographic that's tended to swing rightward in recent times.)

[King of Kensington]

Ottawa

Liberals  261,475  47.5%
Conservatives  155,132  28.2%
NDP  90,587  16.4%

Winnipeg

Liberals  123,168  35.9%
Conservatives  116,051  33.8%
NDP  80,734  23.5%

Edmonton and environs

Conservatives  347,157  57.9%
Liberals  115,463  19.3% 
NDP  109,515  18.3%

Calgary

Conservatives  404,262  65.9%
Liberals  110,769  18%
NDP  60,630  9.9%

[King of Kensington]

Fairly similar levels of Conservative support in GTA, Metro Van, Ottawa, Winnipeg.

[Hatman 🍁]

As I said at the beginning, one can't even come close to saying that there's a long-term shift going on there, but the results are anomalous enough to make me very interested to see what happens in that region next time.

And perhaps a leapfrog hint of that is in how Renfrew-Nipissing-Pembroke--probably the most "Northern/Rural-Prairie-esque" of the Southern Ontario ridings, demographically and economically--went from being a Liberal holdout in 1984 to a Cheryl Gallant Conservative stronghold in this century.  (Though the NDP's never really been a factor there, though there were hints of that provincially as recently as the 1970s)

Yes, and John Yakabuski was able to do the same thing at the provincial level: he made it the only riding to switch from Liberal to Tory in 2003, and turned it into the safest Conservative seat in the province in 2011 (as well as the safest seat for any party in 2011 & 2018). Personal popularity has a lot to do with both members' successes, I'm sure, but it could also be a hint of something more. Certainly the more populist tone of the post-reunion Tories (and their Alliance predecessors) seemed to do reasonably well in these areas, though curiously the Prairie-based populism of Diefenbaker did not work its charms here six decades ago.

On the contrary. Cheryl Gallant is not popular at all in her riding- or at least not as popular as her vote share would indicate.

[Hatman 🍁]

Ottawa

Liberals  261,475  47.5%
Conservatives  155,132  28.2%
NDP  90,587  16.4%

16.4% is usually good enough for the NDP to win Ottawa Centre (our polling had the NDP even higher in Ottawa, which is why I went out on a limb and said they'd win the riding), but this time they didn't come close. However, the NDP increased their vote share in every other riding in Ottawa, mirroring their good showing in the provincial election. I'm not sure why this is. I know in my riding (Ottawa South) we had a very good candidate, in fact it was the first time ever the NDP beat their national vote share in this riding.

[King of Kensington]

Since 2015 the NoVA-ization of Ottawa is very much evident.

[Oryxslayer]

Since 2015 the NoVA-ization of Ottawa is very much evident.

It's interesting then that the Tories were able to hold Carleton, when they lost the other 'bedrooming communities' of Milton and Kitchener-Conestoga, with Milton being the notable target of the  three. It's also interesting with the context of the CAQ victories in the Outaouais last year.

[King of Kensington]

Since 2015, the Conservative vote share has been lower in Ottawa than in the GTA.

[OSR stands with Israel]

What were totals from Metro Vancouver

[Hatman 🍁]

Since 2015 the NoVA-ization of Ottawa is very much evident.

It's interesting then that the Tories were able to hold Carleton, when they lost the other 'bedrooming communities' of Milton and Kitchener-Conestoga, with Milton being the notable target of the  three. It's also interesting with the context of the CAQ victories in the Outaouais last year.

The Liberals had a star candidate in Milton, which is why they won it.

Conestoga has been known to give us surprise results in the past. In the 2007 provincial election, it was supposed to go PC, but the Liberals picked it up. I believe the Waterloo Region as a whole is also trending heavily away from the Tories.  It is after all dominated by the Tech sector.

As for Carleton, it's mostly an exurban riding, and also still has a large rural population, so it is still voting Tory. As Riverside South, Stittsville and Findlay Creek get bigger, the riding will trend Liberal, but by that point it will probably be split up again with the rural parts probably joining a Lanark or Leed-Grenville based district.

[DC Al Fine]

Since 2015 the NoVA-ization of Ottawa is very much evident.

It's interesting then that the Tories were able to hold Carleton, when they lost the other 'bedrooming communities' of Milton and Kitchener-Conestoga, with Milton being the notable target of the  three. It's also interesting with the context of the CAQ victories in the Outaouais last year.

The Liberals had a star candidate in Milton, which is why they won it.

Conestoga has been known to give us surprise results in the past. In the 2007 provincial election, it was supposed to go PC, but the Liberals picked it up. I believe the Waterloo Region as a whole is also trending heavily away from the Tories.  It is after all dominated by the Tech sector.

As for Carleton, it's mostly an exurban riding, and also still has a large rural population, so it is still voting Tory. As Riverside South, Stittsville and Findlay Creek get bigger, the riding will trend Liberal, but by that point it will probably be split up again with the rural parts probably joining a Lanark or Leed-Grenville based district.

Pollievre is still pretty young. If he spends his whole career in Parliament it'd be funny to see how far away his riding is from Ottawa in the end, after several rounds of moving to better seats in redistribution.

[Hatman 🍁]

Since 2015 the NoVA-ization of Ottawa is very much evident.

It's interesting then that the Tories were able to hold Carleton, when they lost the other 'bedrooming communities' of Milton and Kitchener-Conestoga, with Milton being the notable target of the  three. It's also interesting with the context of the CAQ victories in the Outaouais last year.

The Liberals had a star candidate in Milton, which is why they won it.

Conestoga has been known to give us surprise results in the past. In the 2007 provincial election, it was supposed to go PC, but the Liberals picked it up. I believe the Waterloo Region as a whole is also trending heavily away from the Tories.  It is after all dominated by the Tech sector.

As for Carleton, it's mostly an exurban riding, and also still has a large rural population, so it is still voting Tory. As Riverside South, Stittsville and Findlay Creek get bigger, the riding will trend Liberal, but by that point it will probably be split up again with the rural parts probably joining a Lanark or Leed-Grenville based district.

Pollievre is still pretty young. If he spends his whole career in Parliament it'd be funny to see how far away his riding is from Ottawa in the end, after several rounds of moving to better seats in redistribution.

He'll have to hope he doesn't get lumped into an adjacent rural riding that already has an MP.

[King of Kensington]

What were totals from Metro Vancouver

See post #2028

[adma]

Since 2015 the NoVA-ization of Ottawa is very much evident.

It's interesting then that the Tories were able to hold Carleton, when they lost the other 'bedrooming communities' of Milton and Kitchener-Conestoga, with Milton being the notable target of the  three. It's also interesting with the context of the CAQ victories in the Outaouais last year.

The Liberals had a star candidate in Milton, which is why they won it.

Conestoga has been known to give us surprise results in the past. In the 2007 provincial election, it was supposed to go PC, but the Liberals picked it up. I believe the Waterloo Region as a whole is also trending heavily away from the Tories.  It is after all dominated by the Tech sector.

As for Carleton, it's mostly an exurban riding, and also still has a large rural population, so it is still voting Tory. As Riverside South, Stittsville and Findlay Creek get bigger, the riding will trend Liberal, but by that point it will probably be split up again with the rural parts probably joining a Lanark or Leed-Grenville based district.

Judging from the narrowed margin in Kanata-Carleton (despite controversy surrounding the Con candidate) it seems to be a generic "outer Ottawa" thing. 

Let's not forget a third Lib-swinging "bedrooming" close call in Ontario: Flamborough-Glanbrook.

[Krago]

In the 32 Southern Ontario provincial ridings that the NDP won last year, the federal results were;

Lib 43% - 25 seats
NDP 25% - 4 seats
Cons 23% - 3 seats
Green 6%
PPC 1%

[Pericles]

I had a look through the riding results and it seems that, on a uniform swing of just taking votes from the Liberals and adding them to the CPC (unrealistic of course but a rough guide), to become the largest party the CPC would have needed to win Peterborough-Kawartha (if they won that and all seats the Liberals beat them in by a smaller margin they'd have 137 seats to 135 for the Liberals). Peterborough-Kawartha was won by the Liberals by a margin of 4.36% (while they lost the popular vote remember), so a 5.7% popular vote win was needed by the CPC just to get a bare minority.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I had a look through the riding results and it seems that, on a uniform swing of just taking votes from the Liberals and adding them to the CPC (unrealistic of course but a rough guide), to become the largest party the CPC would have needed to win Peterborough-Kawartha (if they won that and all seats the Liberals beat them in by a smaller margin they'd have 137 seats to 135 for the Liberals). Peterborough-Kawartha was won by the Liberals by a margin of 4.36% (while they lost the popular vote remember), so a 5.7% popular vote win was needed by the CPC just to get a bare minority.

That's a... serious handicap, if it carries over going forward (which of course it might not, since Canada sometimes has weird provincial trends).

[Pericles]

I had a look through the riding results and it seems that, on a uniform swing of just taking votes from the Liberals and adding them to the CPC (unrealistic of course but a rough guide), to become the largest party the CPC would have needed to win Peterborough-Kawartha (if they won that and all seats the Liberals beat them in by a smaller margin they'd have 137 seats to 135 for the Liberals). Peterborough-Kawartha was won by the Liberals by a margin of 4.36% (while they lost the popular vote remember), so a 5.7% popular vote win was needed by the CPC just to get a bare minority.

That's a... serious handicap, if it carries over going forward (which of course it might not, since Canada sometimes has weird provincial trends).

Yeah tbf it might not I believe the CPC had a more efficient vote than the Liberals in 2004 and then a less efficient one in 2006.

[Hatman 🍁]

Makes sense, Peterborough is a very good bellwether. Provincially, it's voted for the winning party since 1977.

How much swing would they need to get a majority?