Canadian Election 2019 (user search)
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Author Topic: Canadian Election 2019  (Read 189247 times)
Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« on: November 02, 2018, 10:44:12 AM »

Hmm, I thought we shouldn't be judged for what we did as kids? Just ask your newest Supreme Court Justice. Oh wait, we're talking about a Muslim here, I forgot. Roll Eyes

This thread is an absolute dumpster fire. Hopefully it gets deleted and we can start anew a bit closer to the election.

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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #1 on: November 02, 2018, 05:52:43 PM »

Hmm, I thought we shouldn't be judged for what we did as kids? Just ask your newest Supreme Court Justice. Oh wait, we're talking about a Muslim here, I forgot. Roll Eyes

This thread is an absolute dumpster fire. Hopefully it gets deleted and we can start anew a bit closer to the election.



He murdered an American soldier and is a terrorist



The fact that you libs have been defending the fact that he was released is another reason why you guys deserve to be landslided in 2019

"you guys"? You're the first person here to ever accuse me of being a Liberal. Tongue
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #2 on: July 25, 2019, 09:58:32 AM »

Fordnation support is like Trump's, there is an absolute floor, and nothing he does or says will drop that support below that number. There is a reason why he's not the least popular premier in the country (only second least!).
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #3 on: July 25, 2019, 12:32:13 PM »

Fordnation support is like Trump's, there is an absolute floor, and nothing he does or says will drop that support below that number. There is a reason why he's not the least popular premier in the country (only second least!).

Yes, there is a floor, but it is lower than you think with some polls showing his approval rating as low as 20%

Well, he's not his brother, whose approvals were in the 30s when he was mayor.
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #4 on: July 29, 2019, 08:41:14 AM »

Svend Robinson won't win his seat, so it's a moot point. If the NDP does indeed have a bad election, the leader in waiting will be Charlie Angus, assuming he wins his seat. The NDP won't have very many (if any) seats left in Quebec, so there'll be less importance on having a leader who is completely fluent in French. Of course, if anyone does survive in Quebec (Boulerice? Brousseau?), there'll will be immediate front runners as well.
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #5 on: August 02, 2019, 09:44:04 AM »

Surprised to see the NDP doing (comparatively) well in Jonquiere, but absolutely tanking in REB's riding.
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #6 on: August 12, 2019, 09:21:41 AM »

MQO reserach is doing polls for each province in Atlantic Canada.  In Newfoundland, Liberals are ahead, but the shift since 2015 is pretty massive, mind you Liberal numbers there were so high reversion to the mean was probably expected.

Liberal 46%
Conservative 38%
NDP 11%
Green 2%
PPC 2%

Regardless of what any poll says - the NDP is almost certain to pick up St. John's East where they are running Jack Harris. He will win on the strength of his personal brand

Absolutely true. Atlantic Canada is where you predict based on local candidates and then adjust for polls, not the other way around.

Jack Harris winning is by no means a slam dunk. He didn't win in 2015, after all. I think it will be close.
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #7 on: August 13, 2019, 01:35:23 PM »

Kinda dumb they've decided to exclude Bernier from the debates when that Mainstreet poll literally just came out showing a tie in Beauce (i.e. the party has a chance at winning seats... or by "seats", they mean they have to have a chance at winning more than one?)
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #8 on: August 14, 2019, 02:35:08 PM »

If the federal Tories have a really disappointing performance in Ontario and its interpreted as being largely due to a backlash against Doug Ford - it will not in and of itself cause a revolt against his leadership. First of all there really is no mechanism for the Ontario PCs to ditch him while he is premier. The only way would be if the entire cabinet resigned and threatened to vote non-confidence in him and force a snap election...very unlikely.

Now if the Tories not only do badly in the federal election but they also continue to poll very badly and maybe get crushed in some byelections - it will cause more and more discontent - and if Doug Ford was a more conventional politician with some loyalty to his party - he might take a walk in the snow and resign so his party has a better chance of winning in 2022 under a new leader. But Ford is none of those things. he is like Trump in that he doesnt give a damn about his party - its all about him. If he can't be leader than he really doesnt care about whether the next Premier is some PC hack or Andrea Horwath!

I predict that no matter how much unrest there is - Ford would act like Greg Selinger and dig in his heels and absolutely refuse to go and would insist on leading the Tories in 2022 - damn the torpedoes.

At least Selinger had the good grace (or was forced to?) hold a leadership election, even if he was a candidate in it.

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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #9 on: August 14, 2019, 02:37:57 PM »

It seems in the possibility of winning seats, the plural is important. I don't know if the criteria is two or it's more.

Quote
The commission has consulted available opinion polls, riding projection sites and independent pollsters. None of these sources project, at this time, that the People's Party of Canada has a legitimate chance to elect more than one candidate," Johnston said.

Johnston said the decision to exclude Bernier could be reversed if the party submits a list of three to five ridings where the party believes it is most likely to elect a candidate — and then, Johnston said, the debate commission would conduct independent polling of its own in those ridings to verify that Bernier's chosen candidate has a reasonable chance of winning that seat.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/leaders-debate-commission-maxime-bernier-out-1.5244287

This is absolutely ridiculous to me. Most of these sites rely on past election results to do their projections. How can they be of any use in the case for a new party? I suppose they can pull numbers out of their a**es to boost candidate numbers for people like Renata Ford or Steven Fletcher, or they might try to some regression analysis based on demographics, but I doubt any of them are doing that.
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #10 on: August 15, 2019, 10:10:30 AM »

Jagmeet Singh has a better chance of being the next PM than Bernier does of losing Beauce.

I like those odds!
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #11 on: August 15, 2019, 01:16:38 PM »

Jagmeet Singh has a better chance of being the next PM than Bernier does of losing Beauce.

I like those odds!

Did you support him in the leadership election?

I did. I had been quite impressed with him up until that point. I remain hopeful that he will run a strong campaign, but I must admit that I have been disillusioned with his leadership so far.
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #12 on: August 15, 2019, 02:40:33 PM »

Surprised the Greens aren't way out ahead. On paper, should be an easy pickup. I mean, they have the Greens losing support! I guess this is due to Liberal voters coming home due to not voting for their resigned candidate in 2015.
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #13 on: August 16, 2019, 08:49:38 AM »
« Edited: August 16, 2019, 08:56:48 AM by Hatman 🍁 »

Surprised the Greens aren't way out ahead. On paper, should be an easy pickup. I mean, they have the Greens losing support! I guess this is due to Liberal voters coming home due to not voting for their resigned candidate in 2015.

The Green Party mayor of Victoria Lisa Helps isn't all that popular (only reelected with all 43.1% of the vote despite not having a high profile challenger.)  So, maybe she doesn't helps.

How many people know that she's affiliated with the Greens though? It's not on her Wikipedia page.

ETA: After reading this article, it is clear that the last mayor election was an NDP-Green proxy battle.  But still, how many people are going to associate the federal party with the administration of an officially non-partisan mayor?
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #14 on: August 19, 2019, 10:03:32 AM »


Melinda Munro was a good candidate anyway, but Liberals will be rather pleased.

Windsor West was in my view the safest NDP seat in the country (other than potentially Vancouver East). We'll have to see what happens. Difficult balancing act for the NDP given that both their other local seats are vulnerable. They won't want a repeat of 2015 in St John's, where Harris got no attention and lost but they had placed all their resources into the South seat where Cleary lost to O'Regan by double digits.

Is that what happened? Our polling had Harris in trouble for much of the campaign. Someone should've told them!
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #15 on: August 21, 2019, 01:24:44 PM »



I'm sure Godin is welcome to run if he wants. It would've also been nice if he had entered provincial politics.
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #16 on: August 22, 2019, 08:33:26 AM »

Technically Jagmeet isn't even nominated yet.

The NDP has a rather rigorous vetting process. If they had a the same process as the PPC, they'd have a full slate by now.

Suprisingly, there are some ridings where there is a lot of candidates running for the nomination, some of them are not targets. There's 5 or 6 in Oshawa and 5 in NDG, 3 in Griesbach, and even 2 in Papineau, Renfrew and Egmont(!)
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #17 on: August 23, 2019, 03:21:49 PM »


Mine Wink
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #18 on: August 30, 2019, 09:11:05 AM »


I think it's more like you're taking the "bad news" too much at face value without considering that the Poll Tracker's really at the mercy of whatever polls cross its windscreen at whatever particular moment.  And at this point, the 4-seat swing is too picayune to be an indicator of anything deeper or more lasting...

But if the Liberals were making gains since last few updates of CBC's forecast, and now they had stopped doing that - then you can call it "bad news". Also please note that I am relatively new to Canadian politics.


So post them here Smiley I am interested in federal predictions, if you're creating them.

Unfortunately as I am a pollster with paying clients, I can't divulge this until election day. :/
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #19 on: September 03, 2019, 09:02:23 AM »

The NDP saved face in 1993 by having a popular government in Saskatchewan. None of the seats they won in that election are "safe NDP" seats nowadays, and most of them weren't even won by the party in 2011. The NDP didn't even win Vancouver East in 1993.

While the provincial NDP is popular in BC, they could get outflanked by the Greens there. Things could be very bad indeed.
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #20 on: September 16, 2019, 04:39:31 PM »

Bernier will be in the official debates.

Wonder what seat(s) besides Beauce they thought the PPC had a reasonable chance of winning.

No idea, but even Beauce I doubt they will win.

As per impact, could hurt the Tories but most on right hate Trudeau with a passion and will vote for whomever is most likely to defeat him so impact at most minor.  Also it will make Scheer look moderate when compared to Bernier although I suspect by that point in the campaign opinions will be pretty baked in.  French debate probably more likely to have impact as Quebec is known for large late swings whereas other provinces much less so.

I wrote the report to the Debate commission on behalf of EKOS, providing our two cents based on the polling we did for them. All the data is on their site, but the top two ridings were Nipissing-Timiskaming and Etobicoke North.

Amusing that Andrew Scheer is blasting us as a "Liberal" polling firm, but I certainly am no Liberal!
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #21 on: September 16, 2019, 06:03:05 PM »

I was surprised too, but Bernier had it on his list. Their candidate is a North Bay city councillor who was originally the Conservative candidate but was delisted.
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #22 on: September 17, 2019, 08:25:00 AM »

Maxime Bernier appears to have finally left Beauce, and will be touring around Anglo New Brunswick the next few days. Trying to go after the People's Alliance vote presumably.

Outside of the four ridings they're targeting, New Brunswick is the best region for polling, probably due to the association/confusion with the PA. 
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #23 on: September 17, 2019, 03:23:39 PM »

Maxime Bernier appears to have finally left Beauce, and will be touring around Anglo New Brunswick the next few days. Trying to go after the People's Alliance vote presumably.

Outside of thefour ridings they're targeting, New Brunswick is the best region for polling, probably due to the association/confusion with the PA. 

Beauce, Etobicoke North, Nipissing... what's the fourth one?

Oops, I still have the four ridings on my brain. It is five including Beauce of course, plus Charleswood and Pickering-Uxbridge.
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #24 on: September 18, 2019, 09:24:18 PM »

I'm really proud of Jagmeet's response.  It definitely has the ability to turn around the campaign. It's unfortunate that this has to be reason for it.
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