Canadian Election 2019

[Antonio the Sixth]

What a dismal election. At least we've avoided PM Scheer, I guess (although I'm sure he or someone even more heinous will make a triumphant comeback at the next election). Otherwise, the Singh Surge proved to be a dud and NDP lost half its seats for no good reason, BQ is back and more nakedly racist than ever, the most worthless green party in the developed world has gained a bigger platform (both developments that probably contributed to ing over the NDP), and the upcoming government is going to represent barely a third of the electorate through the combined magic of FPP and Canada's ridiculous boner for minority governments. What an utter and pathetic failure on all parts.

[Antonio the Sixth]

The (clap) Liberal (clap) Party (clap) of (clap) Canada (clap) is (clap) not (clap) "left"

[Antonio the Sixth]

The (clap) Liberal (clap) Party (clap) of (clap) Canada (clap) is (clap) not (clap) "left"

Left (clap) And (clap) Right (clap) Are (clap) Meaningless (clap) Terms (clap) Whose (clap) Applicability (clap) And (clap) Tenants (clap) Change (clap) Based (clap) On (clap) Time (clap) Period, (clap) Geography, (clap) Culture, (clap) Context, (clap) And (clap) Perspective (clap) Of (clap) The (clap) Defined (clap) Selection.

maeks u think

Nevertheless, the LPC is not left-wing in any reasonable definition of the word.

[Antonio the Sixth]

After all, name me one major party in any other industrialized nation that still even advocates for one-tier health care, let alone counts it as a cornerstone policy.

What on earth are you talking about?? Most Western countries have reached a consensus around some form of publicly funded health care system (and note that Canada has a weaker form of it, only State health insurance rather than a socialized health industry itself) that not even right-wing parties dare to touch. If not wanting to abolish Medicare makes Trudeau left-wing, I guess BoJo is a full-blown communist for wanting to increase NHS funding?

[Antonio the Sixth]

It's hard to claim that winning 34% gives the CPC a mandate to govern in the way winning 48% would, especially since the LPC is obviously the Condorcet winner. Still, the Trudeau government itself has zero democratic legitimacy left, either. There's simply no winner to this election under the current rules.

[Antonio the Sixth]

It's hard to claim that winning 34% gives the CPC a mandate to govern in the way winning 48% would, especially since the LPC is obviously the Condorcet winner. Still, the Trudeau government itself has zero democratic legitimacy left, either. There's simply no winner to this election under the current rules.

What?
On the Pure PR system most likely outcome would be Liberal minority.
To be fair NDP would have more seats and have bigger leverage but it is not enough to change who became the PM.

No party with 33% of the seats would be able to form a government alone (okay, that's not quite true, Denmark also somehow manages to have minority governments led by parties with ridiculously small pluralities, but at least they have to negotiate with other parties for outside supports beforehand, and can't just expect to be handed the government without making major concessions).

[Antonio the Sixth]

I had a look through the riding results and it seems that, on a uniform swing of just taking votes from the Liberals and adding them to the CPC (unrealistic of course but a rough guide), to become the largest party the CPC would have needed to win Peterborough-Kawartha (if they won that and all seats the Liberals beat them in by a smaller margin they'd have 137 seats to 135 for the Liberals). Peterborough-Kawartha was won by the Liberals by a margin of 4.36% (while they lost the popular vote remember), so a 5.7% popular vote win was needed by the CPC just to get a bare minority.

That's a... serious handicap, if it carries over going forward (which of course it might not, since Canada sometimes has weird provincial trends).

[Antonio the Sixth]

Great table, thanks!

Can I get a link to the official results, to get a detailed look for myself?

[Antonio the Sixth]

Ipsos conducted an exit poll which included a question about how you would vote under straight PR. Actual poll results only added up to 95%, so I pro-rated the extra 5% by vote share. Seat change is vs actual FPTP results.

Tory: 31.6%, 107 seats (-14)
Liberal: 27.4%, 93 seats (-64)
NDP: 21.0%, 71 seats (+47)
Green: 8.4%, 28 seats (+25)
Bloc: 7.4%, 25 seats (-7)
People's: 4.2%, 14 seats (+14)

Tl;dr: PPC enters parliament (or narrowly misses out if we have a 5% threshhold), Liberals would have tremendous difficulty forming government on their own, and would need the support of the NDP + Bloc and/or Greens to pass anything. We probably see a coalition or at the very least a more formal arrangement with the NDP.

Unsurprisingly this confirms that the Singh Surge was undercut by f**king tactical voting.

[Antonio the Sixth]

1917 really was one crazy election. Conscription was the ultimate wedge issue.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Are the official result being posted somewhere? I couldn't find them with a google search.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Are the official result being posted somewhere? I couldn't find them with a google search.

Use this link: http://enr.elections.ca/DownloadResults.aspx 

Thanks!