Canadian Election 2019

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

What would have the results been under proportional representation?

Canada 2019 (99.6% in)

Conservative: 116 seats (-5)
Liberal: 112 seats (-45)
New Democrat: 54 seats (+30)
Bloc Quebecois: 26 seats (-6)
Green: 22 seats (+19)
People's: 6 seats (+6)
Jody Wilson-Raybould: 1 seat (+/- 0)
Christian Heritage: 1 seat (+1)

Now, I'm not 100% sure with the Christian Heritage party's seat, because we don't have the exact vote numbers in each riding, so I'm unsure if any independent surpassed the CHP's numbers.

[Flyersfan232]

Don't take my word on anything. I'm just some 'Murican idiot. But I have some thoughts, having watched the coverage from 9:00 PM.

1. Jagmeets wife is a babe.
2. Every party is a loser tonight, accept maybe the Bloc. I didn't even know that was possible.
3. Identity politics makes for boring elections, and this election was the most boring Canadian election since like, what, 2006?
4. Scheer needs to go.
5. The People's Party is over.

It was weird listening Jagmeet going on about all of the things he and the NDP are going to do complete with rousing chants and cheers from the crowd...despite losing a bunch of seats.

I'm too busy staring at his wife

You think thes Trudeau mix’s up sometimes and have Justin be cucked by a women?

[DL]

The comments about Scheer and Singh's results are classic Atlas.

Scheer: +25 seats, wins the popular vote. "He has to go"
Singh: -15 seats, worst share in 15 years. "Here's a list of reasons why he should stay"

Scheer and Singh were both unknowns in their first campaigns. Scheer’s personal popularity plummeted over the course of the campaign and he now has the highest net disapproval of any of the party leaders. His performance w as very weak in the campaign and Canadians just don’t like him. He reminds me failed Ontario PC leader Tim Hudak.

Singh in contrast saw his stock go way up during the campaign and he now has sky high net approval. He was dealt very bad cards but he played them well.

Also, there are lots of viable alternatives to Scheer as Tory leader. The NDP has no viable alternative to Singh.

[adma]

The comments about Scheer and Singh's results are classic Atlas.

Scheer: +25 seats, wins the popular vote. "He has to go"
Singh: -15 seats, worst share in 15 years. "Here's a list of reasons why he should stay"

Scheer and Singh were both unknowns in their first campaigns. Scheer’s personal popularity plummeted over the course of the campaign and he now has the highest net disapproval of any of the party leaders. His performance w as very weak in the campaign and Canadians just don’t like him. He reminds me failed Ontario PC leader Tim Hudak.

Singh in contrast saw his stock go way up during the campaign and he now has sky high net approval. He was dealt very bad cards but he played them well.

Also, there are lots of viable alternatives to Scheer as Tory leader. The NDP has no viable alternative to Singh.

Plus, the NDP literally can't *afford* a leadership contest now.  Whereas the Cons eternally can.

[EastAnglianLefty]

Yes, I think the question of whether Singh is a long-term success is ultimately probably at least as much about whether he can fix its finances as it is about how he navigates a hung parliament.

[lilTommy]

Yes, I think the question of whether Singh is a long-term success is ultimately probably at least as much about whether he can fix its finances as it is about how he navigates a hung parliament.

Yup, agreed.

Which is why there is no mass call for him to step down, or a leadership review. The Big difference between Mulcair and Singh, was that Mulcair and his troupe ran a poor campaign, performed "meh" in the debates and the policy book did not really resonate with the membership/base. The opposite of this last election.

[Oryxslayer]

Another thing that we are  all forgetting when talking about scheer is that Canada on the provincial level right now is a Blue Dominion. The Conservatives and their allies rule nearly the entire country provincially, with BC being the only stickout. This shows there are plenty of paths to a Tory govt: reaching out to the left-behind Rural Atlantic, hugging the CAQ for rural Quebec, flipping Suburban Toronto, going full populist and targeting the WWC in South/North Ontario, appealing to Conservative minorities in BC and Peel. Scheer did none of this and just ran a plains-based campaign that got it's dead-cat bounce in most of the country. If the NDP did a bit better, and divided up the Lib/NDP vote, then Scheer still probably couldn't win a majority. Ontario ended up as a firewall, the gains in BC and potentially the Atlantic wouldn't get him close to the now-reduced Liberal minority govt's overall total. He needs to go.

Canadians now just need to pray that Ford doesn't decide to abandon Ontario for national politics, because the eventual recession in the next five years will likely bring down Trudeau's govt and put in power whomever happens to lead team blue.

[DistingFlyer]

Another thing that we are  all forgetting when talking about scheer is that Canada on the provincial level right now is a Blue Dominion. The Conservatives and their allies rule nearly the entire country provincially, with BC being the only stickout. This shows there are plenty of paths to a Tory govt: reaching out to the left-behind Rural Atlantic, hugging the CAQ for rural Quebec, flipping Suburban Toronto, going full populist and targeting the WWC in South/North Ontario, appealing to Conservative minorities in BC and Peel. Scheer did none of this and just ran a plains-based campaign that got it's dead-cat bounce in most of the country. If the NDP did a bit better, and divided up the Lib/NDP vote, then Scheer still probably couldn't win a majority. Ontario ended up as a firewall, the gains in BC and potentially the Atlantic wouldn't get him close to the now-reduced Liberal minority govt's overall total. He needs to go.

Canadians now just need to pray that Ford doesn't decide to abandon Ontario for national politics, because the eventual recession in the next five years will likely bring down Trudeau's govt and put in power whomever happens to lead team blue.

I doubt Mr. Ford will get very far in national politics; his unpopularity clearly had a big effect on Monday's results.

I'd said back in 2018 that his victory could very well be the way to Justin Trudeau's getting another term if the trademark Ford seat-of-the-pants style of governing on display at City Hall continued in the Premier's office. Unfortunately it did, and the Liberals were able to use that to get a net loss of only one Ontario riding, and a swing to the Tories of only 1% (from a 10% lead to 8%). Had the Tories picked up 35 or so MPs (not an unreasonable figure), the national figures would be almost an exact reversal of what they are.

I don't know if the Ontario Tories have yet turned into a 'Ford cult' the way the federal Liberals have turned into one around Mr. Trudeau (or the Republicans around Mr. Trump), but hopefully they will not do so. The sooner those jurisdictions (and parties) are rid of those three buffoons, the better.

I do agree, however, that the impending downturn may lead to a Tory win. I've jokingly said the last week or so that this is why the two big parties' campaigns were so terrible: neither of them wanted to be in power for the next term because they saw what was coming. Given that it's a minority Parliament, I doubt the Tories will dump their leader (who knows when the next election will come?), so I just hope he turns out to be someone like Joe Clark or Bob Stanfield: not very charismatic, a bit of a slow-starter & a dullard at first glance, but surprisingly capable. (NS Tories said about Stanfield that it would be hard to elect him, but once he was in office he would never be voted out. Certainly that was true provincially, though nationally we never found out.)

[DL]

The comments about Scheer and Singh's results are classic Atlas.

Scheer: +25 seats, wins the popular vote. "He has to go"
Singh: -15 seats, worst share in 15 years. "Here's a list of reasons why he should stay"

Let's put this simply:

When you have a leader who clearly runs behind their party in popularity and is clearly a liability (i.e. Scheer) you replace that person.

When you have a leader who is more popular than their party and is clearly a net asset (i.e. Singh), you keep them. All the polls at the and of the campaign had more people thinking Singh would make the best PM than would vote NDP. End of story.

[DistingFlyer]

A total of 62 constituencies changed hands on Monday (relative to the last General Election as opposed to by-elections):

Lib to Cons (21)
West Nova (NS)
Fundy Royal (NB)
New Brunswick Southwest (NB)
Tobique – Mactaquac (NB)
Chicoutimi – Le Fjord (QC)
Aurora – Oak Ridges – Richmond Hill (ON)
Hastings – Lennox & Addington (ON)
Kenora (ON)
Northumberland – Peterborough South (ON)
Charleswood – St. James – Assiniboia – Headingley (MB)
Kildonan – St. Paul (MB)
Regina – Wascana (SK)
Calgary Centre (AB)
Calgary Skyview (AB)
Edmonton Centre (AB)
Edmonton Mill Woods (AB)
Cloverdale – Langley City (BC)
Kelowna – Lake Country (BC)
Mission – Matsqui – Fraser Canyon (BC)
Pitt Meadows – Maple Ridge (BC)
Steveston – Richmond East (BC)

Lib to NDP (3)
St. John's East (NL)
Winnipeg Centre (MB)
Nunavut (NU)

Lib to BQ (
Avignon – La Mitis – Matane – Matapédia (QC)
La Prairie (QC)
Laurentides – Labelle (QC)
Montarville (QC)
Rivière-des-Mille-Îles (QC)
Saint-Jean (QC)
Shefford (QC)
Thérèse-De Blainville (QC)

Lib to GP (1)
Fredericton (NB)

Lib to Ind (1)
Vancouver Granville (BC)


Cons to Lib (2)
Kitchener – Conestoga (ON)
Milton (ON)

Cons to BQ (3)
Beauport – Côte-de-Beaupré – Île d’Orléans – Charlevoix (QC)
Beauport – Limoilou (QC)
Lac-Saint-Jean (QC)


NDP to Lib (5)
Hochelaga (QC)
Laurier – Sainte-Marie (QC)
Outremont (QC)
Sherbrooke (QC)
Windsor – Tecumseh (ON)

NDP to Cons (6)
Essex (ON)
Desnethé – Missinippi – Churchill River (SK)
Regina – Lewvan (SK)
Saskatoon West (SK)
Kootenay – Columbia (BC)
Port Moody – Coquitlam (BC)

NDP to BQ (11)
Abitibi – Baie-James – Nunavik – Eeyou (QC)
Abitibi – Témiscamingue (QC)
Beloeil – Chambly (QC)
Berthier – Maskinongé (QC)
Drummond (QC)
Jonquière (QC)
Longueuil – Saint-Hubert (QC)
Rimouski-Neigette – Témiscouata – Les-Basques (QC)
Saint-Hyacinthe – Bagot (QC)
Salaberry – Suroît (QC)
Trois-Rivières (QC)

NDP to GP (1)
Nanaimo – Ladysmith (BC)


We can now work out overall gains & losses as follows:

Lib - 184 +7 -34 = 157
Cons - 99 +27 -5 = 121
NDP - 44 +3 -23 = 24
BQ - 10 +22 = 32
GP - 1 +2 = 3
Ind - 0 +1 = 1

[Filuwaúrdjan]

NDP share of seats 1962-present

1962 - 7.2
1963 - 6.4
1965 - 7.9
1968 - 8.3
1972 - 11.7
1974 - 6.1
1979 - 9.2
1980 - 11.3
1984 - 10.6
1988 - 14.6
1993 - 3.0
1997 - 7.0
2000 - 4.3
2004 - 6.2
2006 - 9.4
2008 - 12.0
2011 - 33.4
2015 - 13.0
2019 - 7.1

NDP vote share 1962-present

1962 - 13.6
1963 - 13.2
1965 - 17.9
1968 - 17.0
1972 - 17.8
1974 - 15.5
1979 - 17.9
1980 - 19.8
1984 - 18.8
1988 - 20.4
1993 - 6.9
1997 - 11.0
2000 - 8.5
2004 - 15.7
2006 - 17.5
2008 - 18.2
2011 - 30.6
2015 - 19.7
2019 - 15.9

[vileplume]

BC might be different, also disappointing especially not picking up Burnaby North-Seymor and losing Port-Moody-Coquitlam (But only by 300 votes or so). While the Green breakthrough did not happen and the NDP saved their seats on the Island, the Greens cost them half a dozen seats in the Lower Mainland.

Half a dozen in the lower mainland of BC??! The only seats there with Green vote greater than the margin the NDP lost were aforementioned Burnaby North-Seymour and Port Moody-Coquitlam, there are no others. Plus you can't assume that all Green voters would pick the NDP as their second choice, a large number would pick the Liberals or simply not vote at all.

[Walmart_shopper]

The comments about Scheer and Singh's results are classic Atlas.

Scheer: +25 seats, wins the popular vote. "He has to go"
Singh: -15 seats, worst share in 15 years. "Here's a list of reasons why he should stay"

The difference is that Singh was always a poor candidate. Scheer didn't appear so until election night, when he underwhemed everyone with a pitiful result.

[President Johnson]

Yes, I think the question of whether Singh is a long-term success is ultimately probably at least as much about whether he can fix its finances as it is about how he navigates a hung parliament.

Wouldn't it be best for Singh to form an official coalition government with Trudeau? I know this is not as common as in countries like Germany or Italy, but the UK also had a coalition government from 2010 to 2015. I think the Liberal Party and NDP could get some stuff done.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Yes, I think the question of whether Singh is a long-term success is ultimately probably at least as much about whether he can fix its finances as it is about how he navigates a hung parliament.

Wouldn't it be best for Singh to form an official coalition government with Trudeau? I know this is not as common as in countries like Germany or Italy, but the UK also had a coalition government from 2010 to 2015. I think the Liberal Party and NDP could get some stuff done.

Why would either party even want a coalition?

[Oryxslayer]

Yes, I think the question of whether Singh is a long-term success is ultimately probably at least as much about whether he can fix its finances as it is about how he navigates a hung parliament.

Wouldn't it be best for Singh to form an official coalition government with Trudeau? I know this is not as common as in countries like Germany or Italy, but the UK also had a coalition government from 2010 to 2015. I think the Liberal Party and NDP could get some stuff done.

Why would either party even want a coalition?

Singh getting a coalition agreement gives  him something concrete to point to when the NDP gets money and people start whispering that he has to go. Trudeau though has enough seats that his minority can last without an agreement, his total would need to be at least 10 seats lower to make it a possibility.

[DL]

Yes, I think the question of whether Singh is a long-term success is ultimately probably at least as much about whether he can fix its finances as it is about how he navigates a hung parliament.

Wouldn't it be best for Singh to form an official coalition government with Trudeau? I know this is not as common as in countries like Germany or Italy, but the UK also had a coalition government from 2010 to 2015. I think the Liberal Party and NDP could get some stuff done.

Why would either party even want a coalition?

Singh getting a coalition agreement gives  him something concrete to point to when the NDP gets money and people start whispering that he has to go. Trudeau though has enough seats that his minority can last without an agreement, his total would need to be at least 10 seats lower to make it a possibility.

1. Singh's job is 100% safe. The next NDP convention is a year form now and i would guess that he would get about a 90% confidence vote from delegates. There is literally no one in the party organizing against him. he is now very popular with the members.

2. Coalition is a non-starter - it would be a step towards a merger of the NDP and Liberals into one party with the NDP being totally swallowed up. There is no interest in that and there is no tradition of it in Canada.

[lilTommy]

Yes, I think the question of whether Singh is a long-term success is ultimately probably at least as much about whether he can fix its finances as it is about how he navigates a hung parliament.

Wouldn't it be best for Singh to form an official coalition government with Trudeau? I know this is not as common as in countries like Germany or Italy, but the UK also had a coalition government from 2010 to 2015. I think the Liberal Party and NDP could get some stuff done.

Why would either party even want a coalition?

Singh getting a coalition agreement gives  him something concrete to point to when the NDP gets money and people start whispering that he has to go. Trudeau though has enough seats that his minority can last without an agreement, his total would need to be at least 10 seats lower to make it a possibility.

1. Singh's job is 100% safe. The next NDP convention is a year form now and i would guess that he would get about a 90% confidence vote from delegates. There is literally no one in the party organizing against him. he is now very popular with the members.

2. Coalition is a non-starter - it would be a step towards a merger of the NDP and Liberals into one party with the NDP being totally swallowed up. There is no interest in that and there is no tradition of it in Canada.

The ONLY talk you might see start to bubble up is an NDP-Green merger. I was hearing a lot social media chatter about this when the Greens were about 10% and the NDP 12%.

[President Johnson]

Yes, I think the question of whether Singh is a long-term success is ultimately probably at least as much about whether he can fix its finances as it is about how he navigates a hung parliament.

Wouldn't it be best for Singh to form an official coalition government with Trudeau? I know this is not as common as in countries like Germany or Italy, but the UK also had a coalition government from 2010 to 2015. I think the Liberal Party and NDP could get some stuff done.

Why would either party even want a coalition?

Stability to govern, influence/cabinet posts for the NDP. I think minority governments in a parlamentary system are not the best option.

[MaxQue]

Yes, I think the question of whether Singh is a long-term success is ultimately probably at least as much about whether he can fix its finances as it is about how he navigates a hung parliament.

Wouldn't it be best for Singh to form an official coalition government with Trudeau? I know this is not as common as in countries like Germany or Italy, but the UK also had a coalition government from 2010 to 2015. I think the Liberal Party and NDP could get some stuff done.

Why would either party even want a coalition?

Stability to govern, influence/cabinet posts for the NDP. I think minority governments in a parlamentary system are not the best option.

The point is moot anyways, as Trudeau said he will enter no coalition.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Do people speculate about coalitions every time a Canadian election produces a minority government, or is something unique about this time around?

[DistingFlyer]

Do people speculate about coalitions every time a Canadian election produces a minority government, or is something unique about this time around?

Not usually, but given the proposed coalition back in 2008-9 (and the Tories raising the specter of it again in the 2011 campaign) it gets mentioned now more than it used to be.

[DistingFlyer]

And we have our first official count - the validated results for Sackville – Preston – Chezzetcook have been released:

Kevin Copley (Cons) - 11211 (22.6%) (+7.8%)
Anthony Edmonds (GP) - 5725 (11.6%) (+8.8%)
Sybil Hogg (PPC) - 816 (1.6%)
Darrell Samson (Lib) (inc.) - 19925 (40.2%) (-7.7%)
Matt Stickland (NDP) - 11860 (23.9%) (-10.5%)
TOTAL - 49537
Rejected Ballots - 320

Majority - 8065 (16.3%)

Doesn't exactly have the drama of a declaration on the steps of City Hall on the night itself as is done in Britain, but it'll have to do.


(On a strictly personal note, I'm rather pleased to see two veterans out of five candidates.)

[rob in cal]

  Anyway to quickly find a list of closest seat vote margins, say the closest 40?

[Oryxslayer]

 Anyway to quickly find a list of closest seat vote margins, say the closest 40?

Download the text document from elections canada and then do statistical analysis. I used a now outdated version for this map:

https://twitter.com/OryxMaps/status/1186777303642263552