Canadian Election 2019

[DistingFlyer]

The NDP wave seems to have dropped back a little; additionally, every incumbent government from 1997 to 2011 has done noticeably better than the last polls have indicated (the Tories also did so in 2015, but since the Liberals did too it was pretty much a wash).

I expect figures round about this:

145 Grits
125 Tories
  34 Bloquistes
  30 New Democrats
    2 Greens
    2 Others

Given how fortunate the Liberals have been over the last ninety years in missing the big recessions, I wonder if that luck will elude them in the next couple years given what's forecast to happen. (The only other time they were in office for a big downturn was Pierre Trudeau in the early 1980s - they missed all the rest since the Depression.)

Indeed, if one were to be ultra-cynical one might even suppose that the Liberal & Tory campaigns were both so pathetic this time because neither wants to be in government when the big slump hits. Obviously that's not the reason, but it still gives one cause to think.

[DistingFlyer]

The NDP wave seems to have dropped back a little; additionally, every incumbent government from 1997 to 2011 has done noticeably better than the last polls have indicated (the Tories also did so in 2015, but since the Liberals did too it was pretty much a wash).

I expect figures round about this:

145 Grits
125 Tories
  34 Bloquistes
  30 New Democrats
    2 Greens
    2 Others

Given how fortunate the Liberals have been over the last ninety years in missing the big recessions, I wonder if that luck will elude them in the next couple years given what's forecast to happen. (The only other time they were in office for a big downturn was Pierre Trudeau in the early 1980s - they missed all the rest since the Depression.)

Indeed, if one were to be ultra-cynical one might even suppose that the Liberal & Tory campaigns were both so pathetic this time because neither wants to be in government when the big slump hits. Obviously that's not the reason, but it still gives one cause to think.

Do you have links for 1997 and 2000 polls? Can't seem to find any good poll lists for those elections.

Not at hand, but in 1997 a Liberal minority was generally expected (they just kept their majority) & in 2000 a loss of their majority was thought possible (instead they increased it).

From 1997 to 2011 the pattern was always for the incumbent government to start from a certain position, then slide during the campaign, and finally end up doing a little better than forecast: 1997 & 2000 saw the Liberals start polling in the high 40s, drop significantly, then tick up a little at the last. 2004 saw the Liberals expected to keep their majority & end up with a decent minority (instead of a close result or defeat). 2006 initially saw a repeat of 2004 expected, then a big Tory lead, then finished up with a modest Tory win. 2008 saw the Tories at near-majority territory, then they slipped a bit (making a close result expected), but ended up with an improved result over 2006 anyway. 2011 saw a big majority forecast, then their numbers dipped back to minority before ticking up just into a majority at the end again. (I've got graphs for 2006 to 2015; unfortunately the one I made during the '04 campaign I no longer have.)

[DistingFlyer]

Does not Conservative weakness in Quebec go back to the execution of Louis Riel in 1885? Since then only occasional elections produced a Conservative majority in federal elections in Quebec.

I would point the election of Laurier as Liberal leader as when Conservatie weakness began in Quebec. Conservative results were still decent between 1885 and that.

The 1887 election was the first to take place after Riel's execution (1885) & Laurier's leadership of the Liberals (1887), and it saw Quebec go from a strong Tory province to a fairly even one. Laurier would go on to win heavily in Quebec in the 1890s & 1900s, but the province was still a competitive one - 1911 saw a fairly close result there.

What killed the Tories in Quebec was the First World War; the Liberals took 62 of 65 ridings in 1917 (their best-yet result there), and all 65 in 1921 (still their best result there). They had a good showing in 1958, when the campaign essentially amounted to 'We're going to win, so you might as well hop on,' but until 1984 (Trudeau's retirement & Mulroney's leadership of the Tories) it was almost always a Tory wasteland, which is why they served in government so little during that time. Indeed, if you look at results in the rest of Canada, they usually went Tory - had it not been for big leads in Quebec, the Liberals would never have been in government in the 1920s, the 1970s, the 1980s or most of the 1960s (1968 excepted).

(I often like to say that Quebec hasn't yet forgiven the Tories for the First World War, while the Maritimes haven't forgiven them for Confederation!)

[DistingFlyer]

If the Tories win Avalon, is that a sign of a very good night for them? I had been working on the assumption that it was.

I think so; that's an area where they've often done well, but with the poor results in Newfoundland over the last decade (and Atlantic Canada generally four years ago), a Tory win there tonight is unlikely unless they do very well overall.

Speaking to Atlantic Canada generally, I'd say that fewer than eight Tories elected there indicates a definite national Liberal lead, while more than ten indicates a Tory lead overall. (Before lots of people jump on me, please note that I'm only saying those figures apply to tonight - obviously they've won or lost government with more or fewer Atlantic MPs than the numbers I'm saying!)

[DistingFlyer]

For anyone interested, here's a link to constituency-level figures for every general election from 1949 (the first with all ten provinces) to 2015. Will add 2019's results once they're finalized.

(The folder also contains similar data for six provinces' electoral histories; will add more eventually.)

https://drive.google.com/open?id=1Pa-73KSfj_nmezJ0WKTKrjlDW6RFUJJR

[DistingFlyer]

At approximately what time (Eastern Standard Time), will the results be more clear?

Polls close in Quebec & Ontario at 2030 Eastern, so give it maybe 45-60 minutes after that and we should have a pretty good idea what's happening.

[DistingFlyer]

Looks like the value of individual candidates' popularity may not have been extinguished in NS after all - the two Cape Breton ridings have the Tories competitive at the moment (both seats are being contested by longtime provincial MLAs). Not saying that they'll necessarily win, as they'd have to overcome long-held Liberal traditions (at the federal level, anyway) in those ridings, but they're not getting blasted out of the ballot box either.

Nothing yet from West Nova, but given that that seat is also being contested by a long-serving provincial Tory, I think that one may flip. We shall see soon enough . . .

[DistingFlyer]

Greens appear to have swiped a potential seat from the Cons in Beauséjour. Libs lucked out there.

That's been a Liberal riding since 2000.  That is a big ass upset if it continues.

It's a mistake - check the Elections Canada figures. Dominic LeBlanc (Liberal) is winning there, like usual. CBC's computer must have had a problem, as it declared that seat pretty early for him and now has changed.

[DistingFlyer]

Greens appear to have swiped a potential seat from the Cons in Beauséjour. Libs lucked out there.

That's been a Liberal riding since 2000.  That is a big ass upset if it continues.

It's a mistake - check the Elections Canada figures. Dominic LeBlanc (Liberal) is winning there, like usual. CBC's computer must have had a problem, as it declared that seat pretty early for him and now has changed.

Thanks.

CApoli newbie question but which of NDP or Greens more likely to cooperate with the Libs?

Since the Greens have only had MPs elected since 2011 that's a little difficult to say, but given that they're only going to elect a few members while the NDP will elect many more, I'd say that it only really makes sense for the Liberals to cooperate with the NDP: that will probably get them over 170, while the Liberals & Greens almost certainly won't.

[DistingFlyer]

To be honest, I don't think the Liberals are going to do as good as the others in this thread think. Atlantic Canada, which is typically titanium L, is showing to be a mural of not only red, but also blue, and a little green and orange. If this is how they're doing in THEIR territory, may God help them as this night goes on.

Although to be honest, the night is still very young, and anything can truly happen.

Most of the seats that flipped are basically Safe Tory, it's not a massive concern for the Grits. West Nova an exception though - anyone know what's happening there?

Strong Tory candidate (he's an MLA in the region).

Same goes for Sydney - Victoria (where the Tory MLA who's running is leading by a little), Cape Breton - Canso (a Tory MLA who's losing, but not massively), and Cumberland - Colchester (an NDP-turned-Liberal is winning narrowly).

All of those ridings except the last one are pretty strong Liberal, while the last usually goes Tory. Individual candidates still count for quite a bit in NS, especially outside the Halifax area.

[DistingFlyer]

Although regional swings can vary quite a bit, one can still draw a couple tentative conclusions so far: the Liberals & Tories are both getting a higher share of the vote than forecast, but with the Liberal lead remaining about where it was expected to be.

In terms of MPs elected, so far it looks like the Liberals are winning enough close races against the Tories, and stopping a lot of NDP challengers quite decisively (just look at my own riding of Halifax), so that their MP count is a little better than forecast, while the Tories & NDP are doing a little less well than expected.

Since incumbent governments often do a little better than polls expect them to do, all this isn't too surprising so far, but we shall have to see exactly how things pan out in Ontario: the Liberals took a number of suburban ridings off the Tories by thin margins there, so individual results will still count for a lot. So far I'd say it looks like a better-than-expected Liberal haul, but not enough to hold their majority. I'm sticking by my earlier prediction for the time being.

[DistingFlyer]

24-6 isn't great for libs, no?

Tories wanted closer to 9ish if they were looking at govt, but it's likely not enough for a Lib majority. So, nothing that we were  not expecting.

Agreed - if the Tories had gotten 10 or more, I'd have said they were looking like surpassing the Liberals overall. Fewer than eight and the Liberals will almost certainly be leading, with 8-10 Tories being uncertain. With only 5-7 Tories coming in, and the NDP only getting one MP here instead of 2-4, I'd say the Liberals will definitely remain in the lead. As for a majority or not, it's definitely not enough to say (Quebec, urban/suburban Ontario & BC will probably be the deciders of that, just as they were last time).

(I'd said to friends over the last couple of days that this reminded me a little of 2004, and so far it's looking like it with a stronger-than-expected Liberal result in Atlantic Canada. Fifteen years ago it was 22-7-3, so not too much different this time.)

[DistingFlyer]

Polls have closed now in Central Canada & the Prairies - get ready for the avalanche 'cause it's coming down!

[DistingFlyer]

Ldp just gained 12 seats in a matter of minutes... Is this to be expected?

Polls have just closed in 260 constituencies, so yes.

[DistingFlyer]

Liberals look to be bleeding in northern Ontario, and the Bloc is doing well so far in Quebec. NDP way down, and Tories down there too.

As I write this, Tories have pulled ahead of Bernier in Beauce. Can't say I'm disappointed; we don't need a repeat of the 1990s, so the faster his party disappears from the scene the better as far as I'm concerned.

[DistingFlyer]

Liberals doing surprisingly well in Quebec so far, and the Tories a little worse than expected - though obviously things are still very early. Difficult to tell at this point just how well the Bloc will do; though I've got no love for the Grits right now, anything they manage to prevent the Dixiecrats of the north from taking will be fine by me.

Apart from the north, not much movement in Ontario.

Looking more and more like 2004, with the Liberals pulling things out by the short hairs but probably not by enough to keep an outright majority.

[DistingFlyer]

Looking very much like 2004 - Liberals doing better than expected.

NDP not doing that well yet, the Bloc underperforming vis-a-vis the last couple weeks' polls, and the Tories also underperforming a little. BC can be quite unpredictable, so we'll see how that goes.

[DistingFlyer]

Very surprised to see the Milton figures; maybe they're unrepresentative but I would never have pegged the Liberals to pick up this one.

The solid Liberal shield in the GTA remains fairly strong; looks like the Ford fallout was strong there. Hopefully things turn around in Milton - that will be very disappointing if things continue as is there.

[DistingFlyer]

Wascana looks bad for Ralph Goodale; definitely not good for the Grits out West if he goes, though being right next door to the Tory leader probably didn't help him any either.

His behavior in the lead-up to the campaign was rather vicious for him, and I think a sign of just how far the Liberals have turned into a Trudeau cult, much like the Trump cult down South: deny, downplay or excuse anything your leader does, and always turn it into a nasty (and usually dishonest) attack on the opposition. The sooner both nations are rid of their two loathsome leaders, the better, though obviously it won't start happening tonight.

Also, the Tories have finally surpassed the Liberals in vote share (they've been gaining slowly for a while). If the Tories get more votes but lose the election, it will be the first time that's happened since the 1920s.

[DistingFlyer]

Wascana looks bad for Ralph Goodale; definitely not good for the Grits out West if he goes, though being right next door to the Tory leader probably didn't help him any either.

His behavior in the lead-up to the campaign was rather vicious for him, and I think a sign of just how far the Liberals have turned into a Trudeau cult, much like the Trump cult down South: deny, downplay or excuse anything your leader does, and always turn it into a nasty (and usually dishonest) attack on the opposition. The sooner both nations are rid of their two loathsome leaders, the better, though obviously it won't start happening tonight.

Also, the Tories have finally surpassed the Liberals in vote share (they've been gaining slowly for a while). If the Tories get more votes but lose the election, it will be the first time that's happened since the 1920s.

Cons did it in 1979. Very ironic if it happens considering what happened in the US.

Yes, the Tories did it a couple times under Diefenbaker & Clark due to the big Liberal leads in Quebec; for the reverse to happen you have to go back to the King-Meighen days.

Looking at Ontario, the Liberals are holding quite strongly - in spite of their provincewide lead being cut by about half (it's around 5% as of writing this), they've taken just a couple of net losses there. If Doug Ford hadn't become Premier of Ontario, would we be looking at a different result tonight? Had the Tories picked up 30-35 ridings there instead of just 3-5, they'd be ahead with 150 or so MPs. Instead it looks like the Liberals will be around 155-160.

[DistingFlyer]

As for the turfed cabinet ministers, Jane Philpott is running third in her riding with the Liberals leading. Jody Wilson-Raybould is in a three-way battle right now; at first it was the Liberal leading, now the Tory. She hasn't been projected ahead yet, but we'll see.

Liberals still ahead in Milton; they'll almost certainly pick it up now. Deeply disappointing.

[DistingFlyer]

Greens leading the NDP by over 3000 votes in Winnipeg Centre (Manitoba). This could be their fourth seat.

Looks like another CBC computer error - NDP leading the Liberals now.

[DistingFlyer]

Disappointing night for every party haha darn seems Canada doesn't have much faith in any of their parties Glad to see the left party still
right now its
54% Left (Lib+NDP+Green)
44.6% Right (Con+BQ+PPC)
So the right wing bloc over preformed the polls by quite a bit but not nearly enough to come close to the left

Why are you including BQ on the right.

Agreed; the Bloc is generally leftist. Racism exists on both the left & right, after all.

As for the Liberals, they somewhat straddle the left-right line; most Liberals I know are much more moderate-to-blue than the party leadership is, so lumping the Grit vote with the NDP & Greens isn't as perfect a lineup as one might think (in spite of the honeyed left-wing words & slogans of the Prime Minister).

[DistingFlyer]

Jody Wilson-Raybould now leading in Vancouver Granville, but it's still a close three-way affair.

[DistingFlyer]

One curiosity - the drop in the Liberal vote (about 6.6%) is a very close match to the Liberal drop in 1972 (7%). Just about the only parallel between this election & that one, despite many predictions.