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  Canadian Election 2019
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Author Topic: Canadian Election 2019  (Read 119408 times)
Old School Republican
Computer89
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« Reply #2050 on: October 28, 2019, 01:46:43 am »

What were totals from Metro Vancouver
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #2051 on: October 28, 2019, 09:38:10 am »

Since 2015 the NoVA-ization of Ottawa is very much evident.

It's interesting then that the Tories were able to hold Carleton, when they lost the other 'bedrooming communities' of Milton and Kitchener-Conestoga, with Milton being the notable target of the  three. It's also interesting with the context of the CAQ victories in the Outaouais last year.

The Liberals had a star candidate in Milton, which is why they won it.

Conestoga has been known to give us surprise results in the past. In the 2007 provincial election, it was supposed to go PC, but the Liberals picked it up. I believe the Waterloo Region as a whole is also trending heavily away from the Tories.  It is after all dominated by the Tech sector.

As for Carleton, it's mostly an exurban riding, and also still has a large rural population, so it is still voting Tory. As Riverside South, Stittsville and Findlay Creek get bigger, the riding will trend Liberal, but by that point it will probably be split up again with the rural parts probably joining a Lanark or Leed-Grenville based district.

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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #2052 on: October 28, 2019, 10:09:24 am »

Since 2015 the NoVA-ization of Ottawa is very much evident.

It's interesting then that the Tories were able to hold Carleton, when they lost the other 'bedrooming communities' of Milton and Kitchener-Conestoga, with Milton being the notable target of the  three. It's also interesting with the context of the CAQ victories in the Outaouais last year.

The Liberals had a star candidate in Milton, which is why they won it.

Conestoga has been known to give us surprise results in the past. In the 2007 provincial election, it was supposed to go PC, but the Liberals picked it up. I believe the Waterloo Region as a whole is also trending heavily away from the Tories.  It is after all dominated by the Tech sector.

As for Carleton, it's mostly an exurban riding, and also still has a large rural population, so it is still voting Tory. As Riverside South, Stittsville and Findlay Creek get bigger, the riding will trend Liberal, but by that point it will probably be split up again with the rural parts probably joining a Lanark or Leed-Grenville based district.



Pollievre is still pretty young. If he spends his whole career in Parliament it'd be funny to see how far away his riding is from Ottawa in the end, after several rounds of moving to better seats in redistribution.
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EarlAW
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« Reply #2053 on: October 28, 2019, 10:30:38 am »

Since 2015 the NoVA-ization of Ottawa is very much evident.

It's interesting then that the Tories were able to hold Carleton, when they lost the other 'bedrooming communities' of Milton and Kitchener-Conestoga, with Milton being the notable target of the  three. It's also interesting with the context of the CAQ victories in the Outaouais last year.

The Liberals had a star candidate in Milton, which is why they won it.

Conestoga has been known to give us surprise results in the past. In the 2007 provincial election, it was supposed to go PC, but the Liberals picked it up. I believe the Waterloo Region as a whole is also trending heavily away from the Tories.  It is after all dominated by the Tech sector.

As for Carleton, it's mostly an exurban riding, and also still has a large rural population, so it is still voting Tory. As Riverside South, Stittsville and Findlay Creek get bigger, the riding will trend Liberal, but by that point it will probably be split up again with the rural parts probably joining a Lanark or Leed-Grenville based district.



Pollievre is still pretty young. If he spends his whole career in Parliament it'd be funny to see how far away his riding is from Ottawa in the end, after several rounds of moving to better seats in redistribution.

He'll have to hope he doesn't get lumped into an adjacent rural riding that already has an MP.
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King of Kensington
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« Reply #2054 on: October 28, 2019, 10:36:07 am »


See post #2028
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adma
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« Reply #2055 on: October 28, 2019, 05:46:41 pm »

Since 2015 the NoVA-ization of Ottawa is very much evident.

It's interesting then that the Tories were able to hold Carleton, when they lost the other 'bedrooming communities' of Milton and Kitchener-Conestoga, with Milton being the notable target of the  three. It's also interesting with the context of the CAQ victories in the Outaouais last year.

The Liberals had a star candidate in Milton, which is why they won it.

Conestoga has been known to give us surprise results in the past. In the 2007 provincial election, it was supposed to go PC, but the Liberals picked it up. I believe the Waterloo Region as a whole is also trending heavily away from the Tories.  It is after all dominated by the Tech sector.

As for Carleton, it's mostly an exurban riding, and also still has a large rural population, so it is still voting Tory. As Riverside South, Stittsville and Findlay Creek get bigger, the riding will trend Liberal, but by that point it will probably be split up again with the rural parts probably joining a Lanark or Leed-Grenville based district.

Judging from the narrowed margin in Kanata-Carleton (despite controversy surrounding the Con candidate) it seems to be a generic "outer Ottawa" thing. 

Let's not forget a third Lib-swinging "bedrooming" close call in Ontario: Flamborough-Glanbrook.
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Krago
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« Reply #2056 on: October 28, 2019, 07:26:31 pm »

In the 32 Southern Ontario provincial ridings that the NDP won last year, the federal results were;

Lib 43% - 25 seats
NDP 25% - 4 seats
Cons 23% - 3 seats
Green 6%
PPC 1%
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President Pericles
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« Reply #2057 on: October 29, 2019, 03:09:57 pm »

I had a look through the riding results and it seems that, on a uniform swing of just taking votes from the Liberals and adding them to the CPC (unrealistic of course but a rough guide), to become the largest party the CPC would have needed to win Peterborough-Kawartha (if they won that and all seats the Liberals beat them in by a smaller margin they'd have 137 seats to 135 for the Liberals). Peterborough-Kawartha was won by the Liberals by a margin of 4.36% (while they lost the popular vote remember), so a 5.7% popular vote win was needed by the CPC just to get a bare minority.
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Antonio V
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« Reply #2058 on: October 29, 2019, 04:14:11 pm »

I had a look through the riding results and it seems that, on a uniform swing of just taking votes from the Liberals and adding them to the CPC (unrealistic of course but a rough guide), to become the largest party the CPC would have needed to win Peterborough-Kawartha (if they won that and all seats the Liberals beat them in by a smaller margin they'd have 137 seats to 135 for the Liberals). Peterborough-Kawartha was won by the Liberals by a margin of 4.36% (while they lost the popular vote remember), so a 5.7% popular vote win was needed by the CPC just to get a bare minority.

That's a... serious handicap, if it carries over going forward (which of course it might not, since Canada sometimes has weird provincial trends).
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President Pericles
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« Reply #2059 on: October 29, 2019, 04:43:21 pm »

I had a look through the riding results and it seems that, on a uniform swing of just taking votes from the Liberals and adding them to the CPC (unrealistic of course but a rough guide), to become the largest party the CPC would have needed to win Peterborough-Kawartha (if they won that and all seats the Liberals beat them in by a smaller margin they'd have 137 seats to 135 for the Liberals). Peterborough-Kawartha was won by the Liberals by a margin of 4.36% (while they lost the popular vote remember), so a 5.7% popular vote win was needed by the CPC just to get a bare minority.

That's a... serious handicap, if it carries over going forward (which of course it might not, since Canada sometimes has weird provincial trends).

Yeah tbf it might not I believe the CPC had a more efficient vote than the Liberals in 2004 and then a less efficient one in 2006.
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« Reply #2060 on: October 29, 2019, 08:32:22 pm »

Makes sense, Peterborough is a very good bellwether. Provincially, it's voted for the winning party since 1977.

How much swing would they need to get a majority?
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DistingFlyer
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« Reply #2061 on: October 29, 2019, 08:56:40 pm »

Makes sense, Peterborough is a very good bellwether. Provincially, it's voted for the winning party since 1977.

How much swing would they need to get a majority?

A very tricky question to answer, but if one looks at the forty-nine ridings that the Tories came closest to winning they break down as follows: 34 Liberal, 9 New Democratic, 3 Bloc, 2 Green & 1 Independent. The forty-ninth seat is Mississauga – Lakeshore, with a Liberal margin of 11.1%.

If one looks only at the forty-nine Liberal ridings that the Tories came closest to winning, the forty-ninth is Don Valley North, with a Liberal margin of 15.0%.

Based on those two numbers, the national swing needed to produce 170 Tory MPs is somewhere between 5.6% and 7.5%; putting it another way, the Tories need a national lead of between 12.3% and 16.2% (putting them in a worse position than the Liberals ever found themselves in despite their domination of Quebec).


Now, I don't really believe that the Tories can't actually achieve a majority without a lead of that size; should they win, it will likely be to a big swing in Ontario, a moderate one in BC & the Maritimes, and probably just a small one in Quebec.
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Tintrlvr
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« Reply #2062 on: October 29, 2019, 09:23:44 pm »

Makes sense, Peterborough is a very good bellwether. Provincially, it's voted for the winning party since 1977.

How much swing would they need to get a majority?

A very tricky question to answer, but if one looks at the forty-nine ridings that the Tories came closest to winning they break down as follows: 34 Liberal, 9 New Democratic, 3 Bloc, 2 Green & 1 Independent. The forty-ninth seat is Mississauga – Lakeshore, with a Liberal margin of 11.1%.

If one looks only at the forty-nine Liberal ridings that the Tories came closest to winning, the forty-ninth is Don Valley North, with a Liberal margin of 15.0%.

Based on those two numbers, the national swing needed to produce 170 Tory MPs is somewhere between 5.6% and 7.5%; putting it another way, the Tories need a national lead of between 12.3% and 16.2% (putting them in a worse position than the Liberals ever found themselves in despite their domination of Quebec).


Now, I don't really believe that the Tories can't actually achieve a majority without a lead of that size; should they win, it will likely be to a big swing in Ontario, a moderate one in BC & the Maritimes, and probably just a small one in Quebec.

It would actually be nearly impossible for the Conservatives to not win more seats than that on a uniform swing because they are already maxed out and can't go any higher in so many seats out west, so additional swings must by necessity come in the more competitive seats/seats they don't already hold.
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Fubart Solman
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« Reply #2063 on: October 30, 2019, 12:06:15 am »

I had a look through the riding results and it seems that, on a uniform swing of just taking votes from the Liberals and adding them to the CPC (unrealistic of course but a rough guide), to become the largest party the CPC would have needed to win Peterborough-Kawartha (if they won that and all seats the Liberals beat them in by a smaller margin they'd have 137 seats to 135 for the Liberals). Peterborough-Kawartha was won by the Liberals by a margin of 4.36% (while they lost the popular vote remember), so a 5.7% popular vote win was needed by the CPC just to get a bare minority.

That's a... serious handicap, if it carries over going forward (which of course it might not, since Canada sometimes has weird provincial trends).

Case in point, the NDP flopping in Quebec this time, after the Orange Crush of 2011. Also, the huge Green surges in NB and PE versus the Conservative surge in NL (which ironically probably helped the NDP take St John’s East).

Here’s a vote table from Matthew Isbell
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Antonio V
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« Reply #2064 on: October 30, 2019, 02:38:51 am »

Great table, thanks!

Can I get a link to the official results, to get a detailed look for myself?
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lilTommy
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« Reply #2065 on: October 30, 2019, 07:52:07 am »

Re-count coming in Port Moody-Coquitlam

https://www.tricitynews.com/news/ndp-zarrillo-granted-vote-recount-in-port-moody-coquitlam-1.23991933?fbclid=IwAR1smWbLJAoYG71-qoPjQBnyo_ndl2Vdf_V61NApmdKgJxXISc1VOF9oZ6k

This is an NDP vs CPC seat, the CPC won by 153 votes but there seem to be some irregularities here.
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MaxQue
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« Reply #2066 on: October 30, 2019, 08:21:34 am »


There is 3 recounts in fact, Bloc also asked for recounts in Québec (Liberal hold by 325 votes) and Hochelaga (Liberal gain by 328 votes).
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #2067 on: October 30, 2019, 09:14:31 am »

Ipsos conducted an exit poll which included a question about how you would vote under straight PR. Actual poll results only added up to 95%, so I pro-rated the extra 5% by vote share. Seat change is vs actual FPTP results.

Tory: 31.6%, 107 seats (-14)
Liberal: 27.4%, 93 seats (-64)
NDP: 21.0%, 71 seats (+47)
Green: 8.4%, 28 seats (+25)
Bloc: 7.4%, 25 seats (-7)
People's: 4.2%, 14 seats (+14)

Tl;dr: PPC enters parliament (or narrowly misses out if we have a 5% threshhold), Liberals would have tremendous difficulty forming government on their own, and would need the support of the NDP + Bloc and/or Greens to pass anything. We probably see a coalition or at the very least a more formal arrangement with the NDP.
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DistingFlyer
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« Reply #2068 on: October 30, 2019, 10:18:49 am »


There is 3 recounts in fact, Bloc also asked for recounts in Québec (Liberal hold by 325 votes) and Hochelaga (Liberal gain by 328 votes).

Validated results still have yet to be posted for Labrador & Nunavut; this makes five ridings outstanding for final figures.
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lilTommy
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« Reply #2069 on: October 30, 2019, 11:19:56 am »


There is 3 recounts in fact, Bloc also asked for recounts in Québec (Liberal hold by 325 votes) and Hochelaga (Liberal gain by 328 votes).

Validated results still have yet to be posted for Labrador & Nunavut; this makes five ridings outstanding for final figures.

I wonder if it is due to the size and remote character of both ridings? The current vote has both the NDP in Nunavut and LPC in Labrador at 41%, so I don't expect the results to change in terms of who was elected.

But Port Moody-Coquitlam, of the 3 re-counts, could result in a new MP.
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Antonio V
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« Reply #2070 on: October 30, 2019, 01:59:13 pm »

Ipsos conducted an exit poll which included a question about how you would vote under straight PR. Actual poll results only added up to 95%, so I pro-rated the extra 5% by vote share. Seat change is vs actual FPTP results.

Tory: 31.6%, 107 seats (-14)
Liberal: 27.4%, 93 seats (-64)
NDP: 21.0%, 71 seats (+47)
Green: 8.4%, 28 seats (+25)
Bloc: 7.4%, 25 seats (-7)
People's: 4.2%, 14 seats (+14)

Tl;dr: PPC enters parliament (or narrowly misses out if we have a 5% threshhold), Liberals would have tremendous difficulty forming government on their own, and would need the support of the NDP + Bloc and/or Greens to pass anything. We probably see a coalition or at the very least a more formal arrangement with the NDP.

Unsurprisingly this confirms that the Singh Surge was undercut by f**king tactical voting.
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DistingFlyer
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« Reply #2071 on: October 30, 2019, 02:03:56 pm »

Ipsos conducted an exit poll which included a question about how you would vote under straight PR. Actual poll results only added up to 95%, so I pro-rated the extra 5% by vote share. Seat change is vs actual FPTP results.

Tory: 31.6%, 107 seats (-14)
Liberal: 27.4%, 93 seats (-64)
NDP: 21.0%, 71 seats (+47)
Green: 8.4%, 28 seats (+25)
Bloc: 7.4%, 25 seats (-7)
People's: 4.2%, 14 seats (+14)

Tl;dr: PPC enters parliament (or narrowly misses out if we have a 5% threshhold), Liberals would have tremendous difficulty forming government on their own, and would need the support of the NDP + Bloc and/or Greens to pass anything. We probably see a coalition or at the very least a more formal arrangement with the NDP.

Unsurprisingly this confirms that the Singh Surge was undercut by f**king tactical voting.

Tory & PPC figures here add up almost exactly to their actual combined share of the vote; Liberal & NDP total figures are pretty close too; Bloc is pretty much the same; Greens about 2% different. Obviously there's a margin of error in any poll, so these figures matching so closely is a bit of a surprise.
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Krago
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« Reply #2072 on: October 30, 2019, 02:58:53 pm »


Judging from the narrowed margin in Kanata-Carleton (despite controversy surrounding the Con candidate) it seems to be a generic "outer Ottawa" thing. 

Let's not forget a third Lib-swinging "bedrooming" close call in Ontario: Flamborough-Glanbrook.


Not as close a call as it seemed on election night.

https://www.flamboroughreview.com/news-story/9665766-data-entry-error-causes-1-000-vote-discrepancy-in-flamborough-glanbrook/
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DistingFlyer
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« Reply #2073 on: October 30, 2019, 03:25:19 pm »

While we wait for the last few counts to be validated, here is the record vote share recorded in each province (party figures get more uncertain as one goes back farther, so there may be an instance in the very early years that ought to be here - nonetheless, this should do):

Newfoundland - 71.9% by the Liberals in 1949
Nova Scotia - 62.0% by the Liberals in 2015
New Brunswick - 59.3% by the Conservatives in 1925
Prince Edward Island - 61.3% by the Conservatives in 1958

Quebec - 72.7% by the Liberals in 1917

Ontario - 62.9% by the Conservatives in 1917

Manitoba - 79.7% by the Conservatives in 1917
Saskatchewan - 74.1% by the Conservatives in 1917
Alberta - 69.0% by the Conservatives in 2019
British Columbia - 71.6% by the Conservatives in 1891

One record broken last week (Alberta, last set in 1984), and one broken four years ago (Nova Scotia, set probably by the anti-Confederation Liberals in 1867).
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Antonio V
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« Reply #2074 on: October 30, 2019, 03:29:53 pm »

1917 really was one crazy election. Conscription was the ultimate wedge issue.
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