Canadian Election 2019

[Krago]

Anyone know where the new Bloc leader is going to run?

He has said in the Montérégie region but not the specific riding.
There is one Bloc MP in the region and he's running again so Bloc leader Yves-François Blanchet will not run in that one. PQ MNA Catherine Fournier was elected in the provincial riding of Marie-Victorin (part of Longueuil) and he could benefit from her help. Problem is that part of Longueuil is in the federal ridign Longueuil-Charles Lemoyne which includes not Bloc friendly part like Greenfield Park. Maybe it's more difficult to beat an incumbent Liberal MP so Blanchet is looking at the NDP held ridings (also targeted by Liberals).

It could be Longueuil-Saint-Hubert. Might wait to see if NDP MP is running and maybe who could be the Liberal candidate. Bloc finished third there but I think it's better to be parachuted in a more urban riding than rural (less territory to cover in campaign and usually less important to have a local figure). If Blanchet wants to avoid to face a Liberal MP, other possibilities are Salaberry-Suroit, Saint-Hyacinthe and Beloeil-Chambly. The first two have a regional city with many rural small towns so not ideal for someone from outside to land there in my opinion. 

He's from Drummondville, and Drummond is currently represented by an NDP MP (Francois Choquette).  He represented Drummond in the National Assembly from 2008-2012, and then Johnson from 2012-2014.  My bet is that he will run there.

[Krago]

Wilson-Raybould threw it all away just to make Justin look ridiculous.

And a man in his position can't afford to be made to look ridiculous.

[Krago]

  Both Hudak in 2014 and Harper in 2006 started with similar numbers, while Hudak just re-enforced the negative image thus his poor showing while Harper improved it dramatically thus won.

I don't know if Harper improved it dramatically so much as the Paul Martin Liberals' negatives exploded mid-campaign through sponsorship scandal revelations.  (Except, maybe, as regards the CPC's breakthrough in Quebec that year)

Soldiers with guns. In our cities. In Canada.

https://youtu.be/uMsqEph7a8I

[Krago]

Here are the Ontario regional breakdowns from the 2015 Federal Election.

Area Codes	LIB	CONS	NDP	GRN	OTH
416/647/437	53%	26%	18%	2%	1%
519/226/548	37%	38%	20%	4%	1%
613/343	49%	34%	12%	3%	1%
705/249/807	41%	32%	22%	4%	0%
905/289/365	45%	39%	13%	2%	1%
Ontario	45%	35%	17%	3%	1%

Postal Code	LIB	CONS	NDP	GRN	OTH
K	48%	35%	13%	3%	1%
L	44%	40%	13%	3%	1%
M	53%	26%	18%	2%	1%
N	37%	38%	21%	3%	1%
P	43%	24%	28%	4%	0%
Ontario	45%	35%	17%	3%	1%

For those who don't speak fluent Ontarian:

Eastern - 613 - K
GTA+Horseshoe - 905 - L
City of Toronto - 416 - M
Southwestern - 519 - N
Northern - 705/807 - P


Exceptions:

Barrie/Orillia/Simcoe County - 705 - L
Peterborough/Lindsay - 705 - K
Cobourg - 905 - K
Dunnville - 905 - N
Orangeville - 519 - L

[Krago]

I've noticed that all the Liberals I follow on Twitter are unusually quiet today.  Waiting for their talking points?

A friend of mine posted an Ed The Sock tweet on his Facebook page this morning.  Indeed.

[Krago]

I think the main outcome of this whole incident is to make Justin Trudeau look ridiculous.

And a man in his position can’t afford to be made to look ridiculous.

[Krago]

Every afternoon, Nanos publishes their three-day tracking poll of 'Preferred Prime Minster'.

In the past five days, Justin Trudeau's numbers have dropped from:

34.5%  -->  33.1%  -->  32.4%  -->  29.6%  -->  28.3%

[Krago]

Further post-Greta attrition for Greens thru Nanos (11.1 to 10.2; shifted to NDP 14.3 to 15.2); Libs jump 2 points back into the lead--and Justin 4 points back into the leadership-preference lead...

The Liberals don't have to make their "Sorry, Not sorry" ad just yet.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ybRSFZjs0R8

[Krago]

The CTV News election site has ‘Ridings to Watch’, which shows the outline of six federal ridings and the party colours of the incumbent MP.

https://election.ctvnews.ca/

How many can you name?

[Krago]

The English debate will be at 7 pm on Monday, the exact same time that the Leafs will be playing. I am so annoyed. I will probably watch the Leafs game live, and watch the debate tomorrow on YouTube.

It's being live-streamed at the Cineplex theatre just down the road from my house.  The only other live-streamed event I've ever seen there was WrestleMania a few years ago.

I will compare and contrast the two audiences.

[Krago]

EKOS: Here are the strangest regional breakdowns you've ever seen!
Tight National Race with Evidence of Further Volatility

Forum: Hold my beer.
Liberals Dip Following the Debate

[Krago]

Gotta love Forum polls!

Only 40% of PPC supporters approve of Maxime Bernier being allowed into the Leaders debates, the LOWEST of all the parties.

[Krago]

I have actually been involved in an election decided by one vote.  A friend ran for school trustee in the City of York in 1988 and lost to the incumbent by one vote.  Four electors had been given the wrong ballot, so a judge tossed out the result and ordered a new election.  My friend won by ten votes.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1988_Toronto_municipal_election#Board_of_Trustees

Also, there have been two ties in recent Quebec provincial (er.. national) elections: Saint-Jean in 1994 and Champlain in 2003.  Champlain had been won by a 15-vote margin in the 2000 federal election.

[Krago]

Singh looks great. Such a shame that the NDP never polls well enough pre-election for NDP supporters to feel like actually voting NDP at the ballot box isn't a waste of a vote in many of the ridings.

Yeah tactical voting looks like it'll squeeze the NDP again. It's tragic how they lost in 2015, I wish Mulcair had won that election and the NDP was the major party of the left.

My riding is strictly red or blue most of the time, but in that 2015 election it was really looking like the NDP had a shot. I will sadly be tactical voting myself this time, against Scheer's Conservatives. In my riding the best way to.do so is to vote Liberal. The stakes are too high with the climate crisis for me to spend my vote virtue signalling that I support the NDP in a riding where they will not win (this time).

If the polls start massively shifting away from Trudeau and towards Singh, I will vote NDP. It looks like that won't be happening though.

You do realize, your vote isn't going to be the deciding vote in this election, right?

Tactical voting on the level of the individual makes no logical sense.

(1) You have no idea which riding I am in or just how close the polls or results will be between Scheer and Trudeau in my riding. You DON'T KNOW one vote won't count. Ignorant post.

(2) If you haven't figured out, there are likely hundreds or maybe even a thousand plus people in my riding with politics like mine making these same calculations. If we all vote strategically or if none of us vote strategically, it can have a big impact in my riding. Your "one vote doesn't count" argument is a flawed way of thinking. If all of us took your advice and just voted for our preferred party regardless of the situation, we alone as a group could cause a Conservative MP for this riding. Which could be the one MP needed to put Scheer over 50%, or the one MP the Liberal-NDP coalition needed to exceed 50% but now they need to negotiate with the Greens as well to form a government.

(1) Doesn't matter what riding you live in. The chance that your vote will be the deciding vote is negligible. You'd have a better chance getting in a car accident on you way to vote. I've studied elections for a long time. I can count on one hand how many elections have been decided by one vote at all levels of government.

(2) An individual vote is an individual vote. A group of people does not equal a monolithic vote group.

If people like you did vote for who they really wanted instead of stopping who they didn't want, the Liberals would tack left to try and get your votes. If you just vote for them anyway, they don't have to make that shift electorally. If no one votes NDP or Green, then there's no incentive for the Liberals to tack left at all.

And I get it, if everyone like you voted their conscience, maybe the Tories would win. Perhaps that would make for a good punishment for Trudeau for abandoning his electoral reform promise. If he went ahead with his promise, we wouldn't be having this argument.

If you can feel comfortable voting for the Liberals, then that's your prerogative. But do not delude yourself in believing you will have the deciding vote. I can guarantee that will not be the case.

The relationship many progressives have with the Liberals borders on a protection racket. They have single handedly eliminated the one policy that would allow for a progressive alternative to the Liberals and Tories, and then have the chutzpah to play up fear of a Tory government if progressives don't forgive their myriad of sins against progressive politics.

Thus, we see progressives voting for Justin the Blackface Pipeline Mogul to defend against Tory racism or climate inaction or something. It's surreal. I genuinely pity the NDP/Greens and their supporters for having to put up with this nonsense.

I tend to agree with a lot of your points here. The problem is that I see this as a high-stakes election where a Scheer government outcome is unacceptable. At this particular point in time, I feel preventing the worst-case scenario is more important than advocating for my beliefs. Normally in most elections, I would (and do) vote NDP.

If I was an American, I would be voting for Biden over Trump if it came down to it, even if Bernie was hypoethetically  running third party but also in this scenario had no path to actually winning the presidency. Sometimes the stakes are just too high to not be tactical and practical IMO.

https://www.thebeaverton.com/2014/06/staunch-new-democrat-to-vote-liberal-again/

[Krago]

An EKOS poll that shows lower levels of Green support than any other pollster?  Is that allowed?

[Krago]

One thing I don't understand is why the Liberals didn't use their majority to push through ranked ballot legislation when they had the chance.  It would have set them up for almost perpetual majority governments.

And I REALLY don't understand why the Ontario Liberals didn't do it too.

[Krago]

One thing I don't understand is why the Liberals didn't use their majority to push through ranked ballot legislation when they had the chance.  It would have set them up for almost perpetual majority governments.

And I REALLY don't understand why the Ontario Liberals didn't do it too.

The consensus coming out of consultations was that Canadians preferred some sort of PR system. Changing the vote system to favour your party, against what the people wanted, would be an extremely risky proposition, like calling a snap election early in one's mandate.

That especially goes for Ontario. "Premier 12% Approval Rating changes electoral system to favour her party" ain't a great headline.

True, but the worst part of the headline is "Premier 12% Approval Rating".

Voters don't care a lot for the 'inside baseball' stuff, as much as we pundits might like to think.  Despite the Fair Vote folks claiming that huge majorities of Canadians favour Proportional Representation, those numbers seem to evaporate whenever a plebiscite is held.

Ranked ballots would have kept the 'electoral reform' promise without bringing in the transformative effects of PR.  Voters would still keep their local MP/MPP, and no one would get elected without majority(-ish) support of the voters.  The NDP and Greens might howl, but the Liberals would get the benefit of strategic voting without having to force people to vote against their first choice.  

And it could have the added effect of splitting the Tories into further factions.  A new SoCon party could run unabashedly against abortion and gay rights, with the assumption that their supporters would give the Conservatives their second ranking.  How well would the PPC be doing now under ranked ballots, if their voters knew they could oppose immigration without helping to re-elect Trudeau?

Frankly, I see far more upside to the Liberals if they had just plunged right through the line.

[Krago]

Ipsos has CPC ahead LPC 33 to 31 while Abacus Data has LPC ahead of CPC 34 to 32.  I think the online pollsters are better for LPC while phone based pollsters are better for CPC.  I assume this means that higher turnout should be better for LPC as more marginal voters turn out.

Can anyone figure out the Ipsos regional breakdown?  I opened the 'Detailed Tables' and they didn't have any useful information.

[Krago]

In the 32 Southern Ontario provincial ridings that the NDP won last year, the federal results were;

Lib 43% - 25 seats
NDP 25% - 4 seats
Cons 23% - 3 seats
Green 6%
PPC 1%

[Krago]

Judging from the narrowed margin in Kanata-Carleton (despite controversy surrounding the Con candidate) it seems to be a generic "outer Ottawa" thing. 

Let's not forget a third Lib-swinging "bedrooming" close call in Ontario: Flamborough-Glanbrook.

Not as close a call as it seemed on election night.

https://www.flamboroughreview.com/news-story/9665766-data-entry-error-causes-1-000-vote-discrepancy-in-flamborough-glanbrook/

[Krago]

Thanks for the link.  Now I'm ready for some numbers!

One quibble: Prior to 2015, Elections Canada represented apartment/condo polls with a point instead of a polygon.  I was able to use buffering to create circles to represent each building.  For the past two elections, Elections Canada has represented these polls with a tiny polygon on the street in front of the building.  It was a pain to create all those (red) circles, but I like the result much better than those tiny (blue) boxes.

[Krago]

Where are you good folks getting your 2019 poll-by-poll results?  I can't find anything on the Elections Canada website.

[Krago]

Tabling of the Report on the 43rd General Election on Tuesday, February 18, 2020

[Krago]

Dear Mr. Speaker:

I am pleased to provide my report following the 43rd general election, held on October 21, 2019. I have prepared the report in accordance with subsection 534(1) of the Canada Elections Act, S.C. 2000, c. 9. Under section 536 of the Act, the Speaker shall submit this report to the House of Commons without delay.

The official voting results will be published in the coming months, in accordance with section 533 of the Act.

Yours truly,

Stéphane Perrault
Chief Electoral Officer

Stop teasing!

[Krago]

The poll-by-poll results from the 2019 federal election are now on the Elections Canada website.

Official Voting Results
Forty-third General Election

I've created an Excel spreadsheet that combines all the csv files and creates columns for each political affiliation.  If you would like a copy, please send me a PM with your email address.