Canadian Election 2019

[Krago]

Northwestern Ontario

[King of Kensington]

Looking at these poll by polls in inner Toronto it seems that the closet thing to an NDP "base" is in less affluent but gentrifying areas - Dufferin Grove, parts of Parkdale, Kensington Market area, Greenwood-Coxwell.  The Liberals and, in relative terms, the Greens do better among the "post-partisan" professionals.

Davenport has the most of that and no big upper middle class concentrations in it so it makes sense it's the strongest riding for the NDP.  There's a dropoff in the NDP vote when you hit St. Clair when "hip" Toronto gives way to a heavily Portuguese working class area but it's only a small pocket of the riding.

Parkdale-High Park, in contrast, has an affluent western side which is harder for the NDP to win, particularly without Peggy Nash's incumbency.

[Hatman 🍁]

It's interesting that the right hasn't advanced as much in these areas as demographic trends in other Western democracies (US, France, UK) would suggest. Sure, you had Kenora and a few swings towards the Tories in various places, but the rural and blue-collar center-left seems oddly resistant in Ontario. Unionization perhaps? Higher indigenous populations in Northern ridings? I've wondered about this for a few years.

Should also note these regions with a tradition of class-based support for the ''labor party'' went NDP in the last provincial election and resisitedn even though Doug Ford had a strong blue collar/populist appeal.

Right--Ford made much stronger inroads into diverse working and middle-class suburban ridings. Even in 1995, Mike Harris, a populist, didn't do well at all in Northern Ontario.

But look at the SW. Big swings to PCs in Essex, Sarnia, Welland, etc. Basically Ontario's "midwest".

Looking at these poll by polls in inner Toronto it seems that the closet thing to an NDP "base" is in less affluent but gentrifying areas - Dufferin Grove, parts of Parkdale, Kensington Market area, Greenwood-Coxwell.  The Liberals and, in relative terms, the Greens do better among the "post-partisan" professionals.

Davenport has the most of that and no big upper middle class concentrations in it so it makes sense it's the strongest riding for the NDP.  There's a dropoff in the NDP vote when you hit St. Clair when "hip" Toronto gives way to a heavily Portuguese working class area but it's only a small pocket of the riding.

Parkdale-High Park, in contrast, has an affluent western side which is harder for the NDP to win, particularly without Peggy Nash's incumbency.

Interestingly Parkdale and southern Davenport were the two wards Olivia Chow won in her mayoral race. It looks like those neighbourhoods can now definitively claim to be the most progressive in the city. A lot different than things were 20-30 years ago. The NDP didn't even win Parkdale in the 1990 provincial election.

[adma]

But look at the SW. Big swings to PCs in Essex, Sarnia, Welland, etc. Basically Ontario's "midwest".

As a federal 3-way for several elections running (save the 2011 Liberal implosion), Niagara Centre's an eternally interesting case--and it's worth noting that S St Catharines, which contains some of the city's most well-heeled neighbourhoods as well as being within the campus-creative-class orbit of Brock U, is the part of the riding which swung most t/w the Libs and away from the Cons.  Whereas the further south you go, the more things tilted t/w the Conservatives relative to 2015--in Port Colborne, where incumbent Vance Badawey was once Mayor, two out of three "advance poll blocks" went Conservative, and the one that remained solidly Liberal likewise contains Port Colborne's most well-heeled neighbourhoods.

And re the "what Jagmeetmania?" question; well, while former NDP MP Malcolm Allen still finished third, it was a ten-points-higher finish than midelection polling indicated, and from the poll-by-polls it seems like he was still gaining momentum by e-day--indeed, he even repatriated some polling stations previously lost to the Libs in places like downtown Welland and Thorold and the Western Hill neighbourhood of St. Catharines.  I mean, a third-place loss is still a third-place-loss; but all things considered, that's not bad electoral Hail Mary-ing.

Interestingly Parkdale and southern Davenport were the two wards Olivia Chow won in her mayoral race. It looks like those neighbourhoods can now definitively claim to be the most progressive in the city. A lot different than things were 20-30 years ago. The NDP didn't even win Parkdale in the 1990 provincial election.

Not winning Parkdale in 1990 had a lot to do with the curious multicultural-Liberal-populist machine of Tony Ruprecht back when blue-collar ethnic blocs (Italian, Portuguese, Polish etc) defined the riding's character to a greater degree.  Though what makes things even more interesting is that the 1990 provincial version of Parkdale *also* contained the southern part of present-day Davenport riding--that is, transposed to the present, it's even *more* of an encapsulation of modern-day NDP/Chow/Keesmaat support.

[King of Kensington]

The progressive center of gravity in Toronto has shifted westward.  Parkdale-High Park and Davenport were not in play for the federal NDP in the Broadbent era.

[King of Kensington]

Average income

University-Rosedale  $98,820
St. Paul's  $92,952
Spadina-Fort York  $66,906
Parkdale-High Park  $57,459
Beaches-East York  $56,130
Danforth  $54,560
Toronto Centre  $49,909
Davenport  $40,586

Top Decile

University-Rosedale  24.9%
St. Paul's  24.9%
Spadina-Fort York  19.2%
Parkdale-High Park  18.8%
Danforth  17.9%
Beaches-East York  16.7%
Toronto Centre  12.2%
Davenport  7.8%

Rent

Toronto Centre  70.9%
St. Paul's  60.5%
University-Rosedale  57.8%
Parkdale-High Park  57.5%
Spadina-Fort York  56.8%
Davenport  48.7%
Danforth  44.7%
Beaches-East York  44.4%

University Degree

University-Rosedale  67.2%
Spadina-Fort York  66.3%
St. Paul's  60.5%
Toronto Centre  56.4%
Parkdale-High Park  54.6%
Danforth  49.5%
Beaches-East York  46.8%
Davenport  38.1%

From these figures, PHP and Danforth are rather socioeconomically similar, though PHP has more renters.  Davenport seems to be the right mix of cultural workers/young people/few affluent people for the NDP.  Toronto Centre perhaps shows the most NDP "potential" as evidenced by the big swing in the provincial election - though it has a rather bifurcated character (Spadina-Fort York with lower incomes and more social housing).

[DC Al Fine]

Average income

University-Rosedale  $98,820
St. Paul's  $92,952
Spadina-Fort York  $66,906
Parkdale-High Park  $57,459
Beaches-East York  $56,130
Danforth  $54,560
Toronto Centre  $49,909
Davenport  $40,586

Top Decile

University-Rosedale  24.9%
St. Paul's  24.9%
Spadina-Fort York  19.2%
Parkdale-High Park  18.8%
Danforth  17.9%
Beaches-East York  16.7%
Toronto Centre  12.2%
Davenport  7.8%

Rent

Toronto Centre  70.9%
St. Paul's  60.5%
University-Rosedale  57.8%
Spadina-Fort York  56.8%
Davenport  48.7%
Danforth  44.7%
Beaches-East York  44.4%

University Degree

University-Rosedale  67.2%
Spadina-Fort York  66.3%
St. Paul's  60.5%
Toronto Centre  56.4%
Parkdale-High Park  54.6%
Danforth  49.5%
Beaches-East York  46.8%
Davenport  38.1%

From these figures, PHP and Danforth are rather socioeconomically similar, though PHP has more renters.  Davenport seems to be the right mix of cultural workers/young people/few affluent people for the NDP.  Toronto Centre perhaps shows the most NDP "potential" as evidenced by the big swing in the provincial election - though it has a rather bifurcated character (Spadina-Fort York with lower incomes and more social housing).

Link to those stats? I want to compare ridings in other metros.

[mileslunn]

Looks like in Essex County, Tories pretty much cleaned up all the rural polls even ones in 2011 they failed to win, while it was the towns in Essex riding NDP won and Windsor NDP/Liberal so classic rural/urban split.

[King of Kensington]

Link to those stats? I want to compare ridings in other metros.

https://www12.statcan.gc.ca/census-recensement/2016/dp-pd/prof/index.cfm?Lang=E

[King of Kensington]

Looks like in Essex County, Tories pretty much cleaned up all the rural polls even ones in 2011 they failed to win, while it was the towns in Essex riding NDP won and Windsor NDP/Liberal so classic rural/urban split.

SW Ontario has a fair number of "rurban" ridings with a sizable manufacturing presence.  Essex, Sarnia, Chatham, Oxford etc.

[adma]

Looks like in Essex County, Tories pretty much cleaned up all the rural polls even ones in 2011 they failed to win, while it was the towns in Essex riding NDP won and Windsor NDP/Liberal so classic rural/urban split.

SW Ontario has a fair number of "rurban" ridings with a sizable manufacturing presence.  Essex, Sarnia, Chatham, Oxford etc.

But also, in a repeat of a pattern elsewhere (Western Canada, especially), electoral patterns are "sorting" much more dramatically on the Conservatives' behalf in rural/agricultural areas.  Whereas until quite recently, rural Essex retained a certain ancestral Windsor-zone "agrarian elasticity".

[King of Kensington]

Looks like in Essex County, Tories pretty much cleaned up all the rural polls even ones in 2011 they failed to win, while it was the towns in Essex riding NDP won and Windsor NDP/Liberal so classic rural/urban split.

SW Ontario has a fair number of "rurban" ridings with a sizable manufacturing presence.  Essex, Sarnia, Chatham, Oxford etc.

But also, in a repeat of a pattern elsewhere (Western Canada, especially), electoral patterns are "sorting" much more dramatically on the Conservatives' behalf in rural/agricultural areas.  Whereas until quite recently, rural Essex retained a certain ancestral Windsor-zone "agrarian elasticity".

Yes, a lot of people work in manufacturing in SW Ontario likely live in a rural-ish setting, and they're more conservative than working class urban centers like Windsor. 

[King of Kensington]

You get an even better sense of ''urban left''-friendly demographics if you look at the old ward demographics which were close to federal/provincial ridings split in half.

Average income

Former Ward 32, Beaches-East York (Beaches)  $68,457
Former Ward 13, Parkdale-High Park (Swansea, Bloor West Village)  $66,833
Former Ward 30, Toronto-Danforth (Riverdale, Leslieville)  $55,953
Former Ward 29, Toronto-Danforth (Broadview, Greektown)  $55,081
Former Ward 14, Parkdale-High Park (Parkdale, Roncesvalles)  $47,164
Former Ward 18, Davenport (Dufferin Grove, Little Portugal)  $40,926
Former Ward 17, Davenport (Corso Italia, Pelham Park)  $39,246

Age 20-39

Former Ward 18, Davenport (Dufferin Grove, Little Portugal)  44%
Former Ward 14, Parkdale-High Park (Parkdale, Roncesvalles)  38%
Former Ward 17, Davenport (Corso Italia, Pelham Park)  33%
Former Ward 30, Toronto-Danforth (Riverdale, Leslieville)  31%
Former Ward 13, Parkdale-High Park (Swansea, Bloor West Village)  30%
Former Ward 29, Toronto-Danforth (Broadview, Greektown)  28%
Former Ward 32, Beaches-East York (Beaches)  26%

Rent

Former Ward 14, Parkdale-High Park (Parkdale, Roncesvalles)  70%
Former Ward 18, Davenport (Dufferin Grove, Little Portugal)  56%
Former Ward 29, Toronto-Danforth (Broadview, Greektown)  48%
Former Ward 13, Parkdale-High Park (Swansea, Bloor West Village)  45%
Former Ward 30, Toronto-Danforth (Riverdale, Leslieville)  42%
Former Ward 32, Beaches-East York (Beaches)  41%
Former Ward 17, Davenport (Corso Italia, Pelham Park)  40%

Occupations in Art and Culture

Former Ward 14, Parkdale-High Park (Parkdale, Roncesvalles)  13%
Former Ward 18, Davenport (Dufferin Grove, Little Portugal)  13%
Former Ward 30, Toronto-Danforth (Riverdale, Leslieville)  12%
Former Ward 32, Beaches-East York (Beaches)  11%
Former Ward 13, Parkdale-High Park (Swansea, Bloor West Village)  10%
Former Ward 29, Toronto-Danforth (Broadview, Greektown)  9%
Former Ward 17, Davenport (Corso Italia, Pelham Park)  6%

[mileslunn]

Looks like in Essex County, Tories pretty much cleaned up all the rural polls even ones in 2011 they failed to win, while it was the towns in Essex riding NDP won and Windsor NDP/Liberal so classic rural/urban split.

SW Ontario has a fair number of "rurban" ridings with a sizable manufacturing presence.  Essex, Sarnia, Chatham, Oxford etc.

But also, in a repeat of a pattern elsewhere (Western Canada, especially), electoral patterns are "sorting" much more dramatically on the Conservatives' behalf in rural/agricultural areas.  Whereas until quite recently, rural Essex retained a certain ancestral Windsor-zone "agrarian elasticity".

Yes, a lot of people work in manufacturing in SW Ontario likely live in a rural-ish setting, and they're more conservative than working class urban centers like Windsor. 

Haven't crunched the numbers yet, but just eyeballing map, looks like Tories might have won Tecumseh which I don't believe they even won in 2011 although maybe the more dense parties they lost or could be on vote splits as was a two way race in 2011 whereas this time more of a three way race so probably lower vote percentage than 2011.

[King of Kensington]

But look at the SW. Big swings to PCs in Essex, Sarnia, Welland, etc. Basically Ontario's "midwest".

And Vaughan is Ontario's "Staten Island."