2020 South Korean legislative election (April 15th)

[jaichind]

So the left now has a majority?

For sure, that was never in doubt. 

[ON Progressive]

m.news.naver.com/election/nation2020/index.nhn
Results page in Korean (delete the spaces) . Navigable through Google translate.


m.news.naver.com/election/nation2020/result/index.nhn?p=whole
FPTP seat map

Thanks!

[jaichind]

PR vote count so far is

FKP        35.6%   19
TCP        32.6%   17
Justice     8.7%     5
PP           6.3%     3
OCP        4.9%      3
PPL         2.9% (below threshold)
CLP         1.9%

Relative to 2016 it is

Saenuri Party  -> FKP                    +2.1%
Democratic Party -> TCP+OCP      +12.0%
Justice Party -> Justice Party         +1.5%
PP -> PP                                      -20.4%
CLP -> CLP                                   -0.7%

So this election at the PR level is mostly about Ahn Cheol-soo's PP losing ground to TCP+OCP with the Center-Right forces recovering from the Park disaster.

[jaichind]

FPTP is now DPK 162 UFP 85 Justice 1 Independents 5 (4 Center-Right, 1 Center-Left)

PR it is

FKP        34.9%   19
TCP        32.9%   17
Justice     9.2%     5
PP           6.5%     3
OCP        5.1%      3
PPL         2.7% (below threshold)
CLP         1.8%

Justice Party and TCP gaining.

[H. Ross Peron]

May post more detailed analysis later, but this election is in many ways a reversion to the mean (albeit in a Minjoo favoured way) and shows the enduring strength of regionalism in Korean politics. With 95% of the votes in, we see the same east-west divide that was seen in the 1967, 1971, and 1997 Presidential elections.

The key to Minjoo's decisive victory was in the national capital region which consists of the cities of Seoul and Incheon as well as Gyeonggi province. It is by far the most populous region of the country, with about half of the nation's population and National Assembly seats. Minjoo won the vast majority of the seats here, with the conservatives only being victorious in the wealthy areas of Seoul (such as Gangnam) and Seongnam, as well as some outlying, more rural areas.

Minjoo had a similar strong showing in the other swing region of Chungcheong Province. They made a clean sweep in the urban areas of Daejeon and Sejong while having a narrow lead in the more rural Land constituencies as well. Jeolla returned to its Minjoo roots after having embraced the People's Party 4 years ago, with the Democrats winning all but one of the seats in Gwangju as well as North and South Jeolla.

The Busan/South Gyeongsang region has attracted strong interest in recent years due to the belief that President Moon and former President Rohs' origins there would turn this formerly conservative stronghold to a swing region. This was reinforced by the emergence of the "Naktong River Belt" where the Minjoo Party showed strength in many of the industrial towns and cities along that river in S. Gyeongsang due to many of its residents being migrants from other provinces. In that context, today's results are rather disappointing. In Busan, Minjoo appears to have actually lost seats compared to 2016 while in S. Gyeongsang they failed to make any gains. The only gain for Minjoo came in the city of Ulsan, where it won one seat.

The North Gyeongsang and Daegu areas have been the heart of South Korean conservatism, being the home region of former President Park Chung Hee and his daughter Park Geun Hye. The United Future Party won all but one seat in the region (and that seat is because former conservative Presidential candidate Hong Jun-Pyo is running as an independent), with Minjoo losing the single Daegu seat it won in the last election.

Minjoo won every seat on the island province of Jeju which has been something of a swing region.

Lastly, the conservatives won in Gangwon province but Minjoo won the urban seats there.

Overall I'm satisfied with Minjoo's decisive win over the conservatives. However, I am disappointed by the revival of regionalism after its seeming weakening in the 2016 legislative, 2017 presidential, and 2018 regional elections. Moon won Busan and narrowly lost S. Gyeongsang in his presidential victory, suggesting that this region might become more open to electing members of the opposition. However, the current results belie those hopes. Furthermore, the social democratic Justice Party only won one geographical constituency where the party standard bearer Sim Sang-Jung was running. The suicide of Noh Hwae-Chan, amogn other problems, has severely weakened the party.

[PSOL]

Can someone tell me of the non-Minjoo Left? What, other then the suicide of Mr. Roe, is the reason for the problems in the Justice party from being overpassed by the Open Democrats? Why haven’t the Labor party or Minjung managed to gain much relevance, and what were they doing before about it?

[H. Ross Peron]

Can someone tell me of the non-Minjoo Left? What, other then the suicide of Mr. Roe, is the reason for the problems in the Justice party from being overpassed by the Open Democrats? Why haven’t the Labor party or Minjung managed to gain much relevance, and what were they doing before about it?

The Open Democrats are basically a satellite party of Minjoo. The Minjung Party is basically a crypto pro-North Korean, left-wing nationalist party making its agenda unpalatable to most voters. About a decade ago, the soft left and social democratic types currently in the Justice Party were allied with the left-wing nationalist current in the United Progressive Party...but the party ended up splitting and then banned because one legislator was found to have advocated sabotage in the case of a US-North Korean war.

[jaichind]

Overall I'm satisfied with Minjoo's decisive win over the conservatives. However, I am disappointed by the revival of regionalism after its seeming weakening in the 2016 legislative, 2017 presidential, and 2018 regional elections. Moon won Busan and narrowly lost S. Gyeongsang in his presidential victory, suggesting that this region might become more open to electing members of the opposition. However, the current results belie those hopes. Furthermore, the social democratic Justice Party only won one geographical constituency where the party standard bearer Sim Sang-Jung was running. The suicide of Noh Hwae-Chan, amogn other problems, has severely weakened the party.

Why is it that reducing regionalism always have to involve old Conservative bastions voting for the Democrats?  Why not also ask for places like Gwangju and Jeolla to vote Conservative candidates as a way to even out regional inbalances in the voting pattern ?

[PSOL]

Can someone tell me of the non-Minjoo Left? What, other then the suicide of Mr. Roe, is the reason for the problems in the Justice party from being overpassed by the Open Democrats? Why haven’t the Labor party or Minjung managed to gain much relevance, and what were they doing before about it?

The Open Democrats are basically a satellite party of Minjoo. The Minjung Party is basically a crypto pro-North Korean, left-wing nationalist party making its agenda unpalatable to most voters. About a decade ago, the soft left and social democratic types currently in the Justice Party were allied with the left-wing nationalist current in the United Progressive Party...but the party ended up splitting and then banned because one legislator was found to have advocated sabotage in the case of a US-North Korean war.

You mentioned problems facing the Justice party, can you tell us more about it?

[Nyvin]

Does reaching a 3/5th majority (180 seats) in S Korea have any significance for governing?

[urutzizu]

Does reaching a 3/5th majority (180 seats) in S Korea have any significance for governing?

Yes. Most new pieces of Legislation require a 3/5 supermajority (180 Seats) under the National Assembly Act. This rule was introduced in 2012 if I recall correctly, because the conservatives feared losing their majority (which surprisingly did not transpire that year), and to stop the practice of contentious legislation causing physical violence in the Chamber, as was commonplace before (which it only partially succeeded in doing). Works similar the filibuster in the US senate essentially.

It is one of the main reasons for the legislative gridlock since 2012, and its why the Conservatives were so desperately trying for 180 Seats in 2016. The Democratic Party and its satallite Civil Together Party getting 180 Seats means they can repeal the Supermajority provisions and rule without needing the Justice Party or Ahn for anything really. It also probably means more fistfights.

[QAnonKelly]

I wonder if the high turnout here will get them above an 8.0 on the Economist’s democracy index to be a full democracy. I think it will be the first one in East Asia.