Canadian Election 2019
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 28, 2024, 05:02:25 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  International Elections (Moderators: afleitch, Hash)
  Canadian Election 2019
« previous next »
Pages: 1 ... 82 83 84 85 86 [87] 88 89 90 91
Author Topic: Canadian Election 2019  (Read 189088 times)
adma
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,718
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2150 on: March 19, 2020, 05:51:22 PM »

Where are you good folks getting your 2019 poll-by-poll results?  I can't find anything on the Elections Canada website.

http://www.election-atlas.ca/fed/ has results. He was sent them from someone (presumably a contact at Elections Canada)

I find that it's still missing a few riding results (the Barrie ridings, among other things)
Logged
Krago
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,081
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2151 on: April 06, 2020, 08:46:45 PM »

The poll-by-poll results from the 2019 federal election are now on the Elections Canada website.

Official Voting Results
Forty-third General Election


I've created an Excel spreadsheet that combines all the csv files and creates columns for each political affiliation.  If you would like a copy, please send me a PM with your email address.

Logged
King of Kensington
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,068


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2152 on: April 07, 2020, 01:03:10 PM »

I guess one can start crunching county/census division data.

In Ontario I'm guessing the Tories got over 50% in Dundas, Stormont and Glengarry, Renfrew, Lanark and Elgin and were in the 40s in most nonmetropolitan counties.  Cochrane and Timiskaming districts were probably the only CDs where the NDP won the popular vote.
Logged
adma
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,718
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2153 on: April 09, 2020, 04:38:34 AM »

One thing I found: that thanks to the election being on a Jewish holiday the e-day turnout in the more orthodox Jewish polls in ridings like Eglinton-Lawrence and York Centre and Thornhill was exceptionally low, and those who *did* turn out weren't as monolithically Conservative as one'd expect--and even the "normal" advance polls for those districts weren't enough to compensate.  And it appears that said shortfall was made up for by way of special ballot--in E-L and YC, which both went comfortably Liberal at large, the special ballot went Conservative by over 2:1; while in Thornhill, it went Conservative by nearly 80%...
Logged
King of Kensington
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,068


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2154 on: April 09, 2020, 05:21:56 PM »
« Edited: April 09, 2020, 05:44:27 PM by King of Kensington »

And now it's pretty easy to know where the biggest Orthodox Jewish concentrations are precisely.  Going up Bathurst St., it's pretty clear that they dominate the area between Briar Hill and Lawrence (Eglinton-Lawrence) and York Hill Blvd to Centre (Thornhill).  Two contiguous areas of polls with E day turnout below 25%.
Logged
King of Kensington
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,068


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2155 on: April 10, 2020, 11:41:11 PM »

Did the Conservatives a plurality of the vote among any minority group?  Might have taken the Chinese Canadian vote, though the Liberals were also competitive with them.
Logged
brucejoel99
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 19,447
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -3.30

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2156 on: April 11, 2020, 12:13:59 AM »

Did the Conservatives a plurality of the vote among any minority group?  Might have taken the Chinese Canadian vote, though the Liberals were also competitive with them.

Idk about the full results, but Canada's only 2 majority-Chinese ridings (Markham-Unionville, at 64%, & Richmond Centre, at 59%) both voted Conservative (49-38 & 49-29, respectively), so that might speak a little bit to their overall showing.
Logged
adma
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,718
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2157 on: April 11, 2020, 06:29:55 AM »

And now it's pretty easy to know where the biggest Orthodox Jewish concentrations are precisely.  Going up Bathurst St., it's pretty clear that they dominate the area between Briar Hill and Lawrence (Eglinton-Lawrence) and York Hill Blvd to Centre (Thornhill).  Two contiguous areas of polls with E day turnout below 25%.

Plus the Clanton Park area in York Centre.

And when it comes to what depleted e-day turnout can do to the shares, the "central three" ultra-Orthodox Clanton Park polls in 2015 went 341 CPC (68.06)%), 134 Liberal (26.76%), 23 NDP (4.59%), 3 (.60%) Green for a total of 501 votes.  In 2019 they went 150 Liberal (55.97%), 97 CPC (36.19%), 16 NDP (5.97%), 5 Green (1.87%) for a total of 268 votes.

While there might have been *some* more organic post-Harper swing to the Liberals (after all, their raw e-day vote *total* went up), I highly doubt it would have been a 30-point swing at large, particularly in light of the special-ballot totals.

And in Eglinton-Lawrence, in the the most critical south-of-Lawrence-around-Bathurst polls with the biggest shortfalls, I added up for 2015

CPC 1737 (68.76%) Liberal 656 (25.97%) NDP 95 (3.76%), Green 27 (1.07%), other 11 (.44%), for a total of 2526.

For 2019

Liberal 697 (48.91%) CPC 539 (37.82%) NDP 118 (8.28%) GP 49 (3.44%), PPC 22 (1.54%) for a total of 1425.

Again, there was an actual mild increase in e-day Liberal (+ NDP & Green, for that matter) vote *numbers*--but it doesn't explain the Conservative vote total being reduced to less than a third of 2015.

It's certainly not a Wisconsin-style voter-suppression case (after all, a good deal of that missing electorate evidently compensated through special ballot; and there were other extenuating reasons behind the Conservative defeat in said ridings); but it does lead one to contemplate the *logic* behind such suppression.
Logged
jaymichaud
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,356
United Kingdom


Political Matrix
E: 3.10, S: -7.83

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2158 on: April 11, 2020, 10:41:32 AM »

NDP are taking a tumble.
Logged
King of Kensington
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,068


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2159 on: April 11, 2020, 02:02:33 PM »


Just under half of their seats in BC. 
Logged
jaymichaud
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,356
United Kingdom


Political Matrix
E: 3.10, S: -7.83

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2160 on: April 11, 2020, 02:07:55 PM »

Did the Conservatives a plurality of the vote among any minority group?  Might have taken the Chinese Canadian vote, though the Liberals were also competitive with them.

Jews, I'm sure.
Logged
King of Kensington
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,068


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2161 on: April 11, 2020, 02:13:11 PM »
« Edited: April 11, 2020, 08:34:47 PM by King of Kensington »

Orthodox Jews for sure, pretty sure Canadian Jews as a whole went Liberal.
Logged
xelas81
Rookie
**
Posts: 212
Falkland Islands (Islas Malvinas)


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2162 on: April 11, 2020, 02:28:02 PM »

Did the Conservatives a plurality of the vote among any minority group?  Might have taken the Chinese Canadian vote, though the Liberals were also competitive with them.
Is the Korean Canadian vote more or less Tory than Chinese Canadian vote?
Logged
adma
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,718
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2163 on: April 11, 2020, 05:25:01 PM »


Other than the natural post-Mulcair Quebec attrition and other places where they no longer had incumbent advantage (like downtown Toronto), they treaded water more than they took a tumble.  All in all, 2015 was the more critical "tumble" than 2019.

And the Eglinton-Lawrence and York Centre stats I posted were seats where they didn't have a chance in blazes, so don't use that as a barometer.  (Heck, they went up in votes as well as share in the Eglinton-Lawrence sector I highlighted)
Logged
King of Kensington
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,068


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2164 on: April 11, 2020, 06:15:55 PM »

Other than the natural post-Mulcair Quebec attrition and other places where they no longer had incumbent advantage (like downtown Toronto), they treaded water more than they took a tumble.  All in all, 2015 was the more critical "tumble" than 2019.

Yes, it was a a two-stage tumble for the NDP.
Logged
King of Kensington
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,068


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2165 on: April 11, 2020, 06:17:02 PM »

Is the Korean Canadian vote more or less Tory than Chinese Canadian vote?

Very difficult to isolate the Korean Canadian vote - they are small in numbers and pretty dispersed.
Logged
President Punxsutawney Phil
TimTurner
Atlas Politician
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 41,119
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2166 on: April 11, 2020, 06:20:26 PM »

Other than the natural post-Mulcair Quebec attrition and other places where they no longer had incumbent advantage (like downtown Toronto), they treaded water more than they took a tumble.  All in all, 2015 was the more critical "tumble" than 2019.

Yes, it was a a two-stage tumble for the NDP.
Kind of like 2006, 2008, and 2011 was a three-stage tumble for the Grits?
Logged
Pericles
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 17,066


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2167 on: April 12, 2020, 01:18:39 AM »

Other than the natural post-Mulcair Quebec attrition and other places where they no longer had incumbent advantage (like downtown Toronto), they treaded water more than they took a tumble.  All in all, 2015 was the more critical "tumble" than 2019.

Yes, it was a a two-stage tumble for the NDP.

The NDP pretty much stayed even in English Canada in terms of seats, but their 15 seat loss in Quebec meant they needed to make big gains outside of Quebec just to tread water, and they couldn't do that.
Logged
President Punxsutawney Phil
TimTurner
Atlas Politician
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 41,119
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2168 on: April 12, 2020, 01:29:51 AM »

Something interesting to consider: in 2008 the NDP did somewhat good, then in 2011 they rocketed to the top in Quebec (Le Bon Jack, et al.), hitting 105 seats. Then they lost a ton in both Anglo Canada and Quebec in 2015, and then had a Quebec-specific decline in 2019, and thus they were back to where they used to be.
Logged
adma
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,718
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2169 on: April 12, 2020, 05:15:00 AM »

Other than the natural post-Mulcair Quebec attrition and other places where they no longer had incumbent advantage (like downtown Toronto), they treaded water more than they took a tumble.  All in all, 2015 was the more critical "tumble" than 2019.

Yes, it was a a two-stage tumble for the NDP.

The NDP pretty much stayed even in English Canada in terms of seats, but their 15 seat loss in Quebec meant they needed to make big gains outside of Quebec just to tread water, and they couldn't do that.

We already knew that before the poll-by-polls.  I'm looking in more granular poll-by-poll terms--and in Ontario in particular, aside from the post-incumbency swoon in the 416 and a few other saggy spots like Windsor, there were actually signs of at least a "1997 Alexa"-type up periscope.  (Probably piggybacking at least a bit off their being in Official Opposition provincially.)

Though yes, that's probably fairly Ontario-specific.  But Quebec was more of a silently-anticipated "managed decline" circumstance (and there, whatever urban-Montreal strength they showed actually shows promise for the future), the West was compressed by the Scheer/Wexit juggernaut, and the Maritimes saw their biggest grapple with the Greens for the "Red Tory" vote.  (And even in the Maritimes, whatever NDP strength there *has* been in recent years has coasted on Alexa's own 1997 "Orange Crush" effect.)
Logged
King of Kensington
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,068


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2170 on: April 12, 2020, 03:49:58 PM »

Evidence of the swing away from the Tories in very Jewish neighborhoods. 

Hampstead E day and advance polls (Mount Royal)

Liberal  1,925  53.4%
Conservative  1,002  27.8%
NDP  265  7.4%
Green  194  5.4%

Cedarvale E day (St. Paul's) 

Liberal  555  45%
Conservative  437  35.4%
NDP  145  11.8%
Green  77  6.2%


The town of Hampstead is the most Jewish municipality in Canada.  Cedarvale is home to Toronto's most prestigious Conservative and Reform synagogues.
Logged
adma
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,718
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2171 on: April 12, 2020, 04:16:21 PM »

Evidence of the swing away from the Tories in very Jewish neighborhoods.  

Hampstead E day and advance polls (Mount Royal)

Liberal  1,925  53.4%
Conservative  1,002  27.8%
NDP  265  7.4%
Green  194  5.4%

Cedarvale E day (St. Paul's)  

Liberal  555  45%
Conservative  437  35.4%
NDP  145  11.8%
Green  77  6.2%


The town of Hampstead is the most Jewish municipality in Canada.  Cedarvale is home to Toronto's most prestigious Conservative and Reform synagogues.

And if one wants to know where that shortfall went (and why it's more complicated than a swing away when a Jewish holiday's involved): in Mount Royal, the special ballot vote went 2,713 Conservative to 1,906 Liberal (the riding at large went 56.3% Lib to 24.9% Con).

OTOH in Toronto-St Paul's, the special ballot Conservative share was actually *below* the riding par, probably in part because while predominantly Jewish, Cedarvale isn't an Orthodox bastion--and the NDP share was *above* the riding par, perhaps reflecting the affluent-urban-cultural-class lean of those voting by special ballot in a riding like St. Paul's.
Logged
King of Kensington
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,068


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2172 on: April 12, 2020, 04:53:27 PM »

Yes, the swing away from the Tories was among non-Orthodox.  Hampstead has more Orthodox Jews than Cedarvale does.  But it's so monolithically Jewish that I'm pretty sure that a majority of E day voters there were Jewish. 
Logged
King of Kensington
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,068


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2173 on: April 12, 2020, 05:11:29 PM »

And many of those "affluent urban cultural class" voters in St. Paul's (and University-Rosedale) are Jewish as well (but obviously not voting by special ballot for religious reasons).
Logged
King of Kensington
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,068


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2174 on: April 14, 2020, 11:17:32 AM »

In terms of the big three visible minority groups, it's pretty clear South Asian and Black Canadians vote massively Liberal.  Chinese are probably even split or have a slight Conservative lean.
Logged
Pages: 1 ... 82 83 84 85 86 [87] 88 89 90 91  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.049 seconds with 12 queries.