Canadian Election 2019

[MaxQue]

Hopefully the Tories win and win in a landslide,


Trudeau has been one of the worst pm's ever

Muh Omar Khadr?

That was a disgrace in every way.

Why exactly should the Charter of Rights and Freedoms not have applied in this case?

He committed Treason(Since Article V was invoked)  so he should have been thrown in prison for life without the possibility of parole for that crime.

He is also a Terrorist and killed an America Solider so he should have been tried for that murder not released and given 10 million dollars

Why should the Charter of Rights and Freedoms not have applied in this case?

The fact of it is, just like in America, the Charter applies to everyone, no matter their moral standing.

He never was acquitted of Treason , so he should have been charged with that

So are you suggesting that Justin Trudeau should have in some manner forced the judge towards a certain ruling?

he should have deported him to the US

It is illegal in Canada to send people to face trails in countries where they could face the death penalty.

Fine next time the US shouldnt send Canadian terrorists who killed US soliders back to Canada for trial.

Even putting aside this technicality, I don't see why you think Canada's human rights code should have been ignored.

He should have been charged with Treason

Wrong Premier to blame to blame, in any case. When Trudeau arrived in power, he was already free on parole and suing the government for 20 millions for breach of Charter rights and illegal deportation (case which would have been lost according to case law).

[MaxQue]

Hmm, I thought we shouldn't be judged for what we did as kids? Just ask your newest Supreme Court Justice. Oh wait, we're talking about a Muslim here, I forgot.

This thread is an absolute dumpster fire. Hopefully it gets deleted and we can start anew a bit closer to the election.

He murdered an American soldier and is a terrorist



The fact that you libs have been defending the fact that he was released is another reason why you guys deserve to be landslided in 2019

Stephen Harper was the Prime Minister when he was released, in any case.

[MaxQue]

Hmm, I thought we shouldn't be judged for what we did as kids? Just ask your newest Supreme Court Justice. Oh wait, we're talking about a Muslim here, I forgot.

This thread is an absolute dumpster fire. Hopefully it gets deleted and we can start anew a bit closer to the election.

He murdered an American soldier and is a terrorist



The fact that you libs have been defending the fact that he was released is another reason why you guys deserve to be landslided in 2019

Stephen Harper was the Prime Minister when he was released, in any case.

He didnt give him 10 million dollars


The fact that Trudeau did that is unforgivable


He should have deported him to America and yes while America has the death penalty , America is Canada's top allies and since he killed one of America's soldiers he should have been deported to America to face trial.

I hope the rest of Khadar life is miserable

1. The options on the table were pretty much setting now and give him money or spend millions in lawyer fees and give him 20 millions (+ his lawyers' fees) in a few years when he wins his lawsuit. I would rather blame Guantanamo Bay's methods, which are what gave source to the payment. I'm rather annoyed to have to give money to him because of abuse by the US Government.

2. There is extensive case law banning Canada from deporting people if they would possibly face death penalty. Options there would be either USA abolishing death penalty or Canada amending its Bill of Rights, neither of which will happen.

[MaxQue]

Two bills renaming ridings passed the House and are now in front of the Senate.

C-377 renames Châteauguay-Lacolle in Châteauguay--Les-Jardins-de-Napierville. Makes sense, as Lacolle isn't in the riding (the boundary commission even admitted their mistake) while Les-Jardins-de-Napierville is a county covering most of the riding.

C-402 renames 16 ridings.

Cape Breton-Canso in Cape Breton-North Nova.
South Shore-St. Margaret's in South Nova
Syndey-Victoria in Cape Breton by the Sea.

A bunch of horrible Tourism Board like names.

Bellechasse-Les Etchemins-Lévis in Lévis-Bellechasse-Etchemins. A fine choice, going by population order rather than alphabetical.
Jonquière in Jonquière--Haut-Saguenay. Makes sense, it makes clear the riding is now covering a large rural component (unlike the old Jonquière-Alma).
Manicouagan in Côte-Nord. Common sense.
Saint-Hyacinthe--Bagot in Saint-Hyacinthe--Acton. Bagot isn't a county since the 1979 reforms, being replaced by Acton MRC.

Mississauga-Streetsville in Streetsville-Meadowvale-Lisgar. More confusing
Nickel Belt in Greater Sudbury-Nickel Belt

Charleswood-St. James-Annisiboia-Headingley in Winnipeg West-Headingley
Regina-Lewvan in Regina West
Calgary-Signal Hill in Calgary West. Great ideas
Fort McMurray-Cold Lake in Fort McMurray-Lac La Biche-Cold Lake

Burnaby-South in Burnaby-Douglas
Langley-Aldergrove in Langley-West Abbotsford
Mission-Matsqui-Fraser Canyon in Abbotsford-Mission-Fraser Canyon

[MaxQue]

Will Bernier win his own seat to begin with? Also, how much do you need to get back a deposit in Canada?

Deposits were abolished by a judge in 2017.

[MaxQue]

Also, for Conservatives, they have Robert Coutu, mayor of Montréal-Est in La-Pointe-de-l'Île running against former Bloc leader Mario Beaulieu.

[MaxQue]

Anyone know where the new Bloc leader is going to run?

He has said in the Montérégie region but not the specific riding.
There is one Bloc MP in the region and he's running again so Bloc leader Yves-François Blanchet will not run in that one. PQ MNA Catherine Fournier was elected in the provincial riding of Marie-Victorin (part of Longueuil) and he could benefit from her help. Problem is that part of Longueuil is in the federal ridign Longueuil-Charles Lemoyne which includes not Bloc friendly part like Greenfield Park. Maybe it's more difficult to beat an incumbent Liberal MP so Blanchet is looking at the NDP held ridings (also targeted by Liberals).

It could be Longueuil-Saint-Hubert. Might wait to see if NDP MP is running and maybe who could be the Liberal candidate. Bloc finished third there but I think it's better to be parachuted in a more urban riding than rural (less territory to cover in campaign and usually less important to have a local figure). If Blanchet wants to avoid to face a Liberal MP, other possibilities are Salaberry-Suroit, Saint-Hyacinthe and Beloeil-Chambly. The first two have a regional city with many rural small towns so not ideal for someone from outside to land there in my opinion. 

He's from Drummondville, and Drummond is currently represented by an NDP MP (Francois Choquette).  He represented Drummond in the National Assembly from 2008-2012, and then Johnson from 2012-2014.  My bet is that he will run there.

https://www.journalexpress.ca/2019/01/28/leffet-yves-francois-blanchet-se-fait-sentir-dans-drummond/

Won't run in Drummond.

[MaxQue]

With the recent cabinet resignation and bombshell on the SNC-Lavalin meeting it will be interesting to see if this has any impact on the polls.  My guess is it will have a minor impact short-term, but whether it damages the Liberals or not depends on what comes out and how long the issue drags on.  People tend to have short term memories so usually you need a whole series of such scandals to bring down a government.  Nonetheless any negative press close to the election will be what is top of mind.  I also think it depends on who the ballot question is about.  Considering how cynical Canadians are, if on Trudeau its probably bad news for the Liberals since while not hated by any means, he hasn't lived up to the high expectations people had.  But if on Scheer probably good news for Liberals as nothing inspiring about him and plenty of areas you can attack him, mind you he was safer choice than Bernier who would have been a disaster for the Conservatives.

 The Tories will try to frame it as does Trudeau deserve a second term, Liberals is Scheer too extreme and risky to vote for, and NDP neither of the two main parties are working time to try something different.  NDP's main problem is the Liberals have pushed enough leftwards so not a lot of breathing room for them. Tories by contrast do have the potential to appeal to Blue Liberals/Red Tories who are probably not keen on Trudeau's big spending, but the risk is become too centrist and risk the PPC gaining thus splitting the vote so caught in a tight spot.  Go too far right and thus fail to win the key swing voters they need, go too much towards the centre and risk a split on the right.

It will help Liberals in Quebec, as it's seen as taking risks to protect a Quebec company and its well-paying jobs (and so agrees the Bloc, wierdly).

[MaxQue]

With the recent cabinet resignation and bombshell on the SNC-Lavalin meeting it will be interesting to see if this has any impact on the polls.  My guess is it will have a minor impact short-term, but whether it damages the Liberals or not depends on what comes out and how long the issue drags on.  People tend to have short term memories so usually you need a whole series of such scandals to bring down a government.  Nonetheless any negative press close to the election will be what is top of mind.  I also think it depends on who the ballot question is about.  Considering how cynical Canadians are, if on Trudeau its probably bad news for the Liberals since while not hated by any means, he hasn't lived up to the high expectations people had.  But if on Scheer probably good news for Liberals as nothing inspiring about him and plenty of areas you can attack him, mind you he was safer choice than Bernier who would have been a disaster for the Conservatives.

 The Tories will try to frame it as does Trudeau deserve a second term, Liberals is Scheer too extreme and risky to vote for, and NDP neither of the two main parties are working time to try something different.  NDP's main problem is the Liberals have pushed enough leftwards so not a lot of breathing room for them. Tories by contrast do have the potential to appeal to Blue Liberals/Red Tories who are probably not keen on Trudeau's big spending, but the risk is become too centrist and risk the PPC gaining thus splitting the vote so caught in a tight spot.  Go too far right and thus fail to win the key swing voters they need, go too much towards the centre and risk a split on the right.

It will help Liberals in Quebec, as it's seen as taking risks to protect a Quebec company and its well-paying jobs (and so agrees the Bloc, wierdly).

Maybe but adscam really hurt them there.  I tend to think this will cause a short term dip in the polls much like India trip, but unless it drags through the summer the impact in the next general election will be minimal.  Liberal strength in Quebec is more due to NDP collapse, BQ struggling to stay alive, and CPC never except in a few occasions like Mulroney in the 80s being quite weak outside the Quebec City region.

The PM’s office might have interfered in judicial proceedings and people in Quebec might say that that is great???

Yes, the view here is than some Ontarians/Anglophone high-ranking public servants in Justice Ministry and Ontarian newspapers are teaming up to destroy a Quebec company.

[MaxQue]

Also, the Quebec NDP is not panicking and they keep announcing decently known candidates. The wife of Amir Khadir in Laurier--Saint-Marie. I know then here, in Abitibi, to replace Saganash, there is actually 2 candidates, one of them being a mayoress.

[MaxQue]

Now to quibble with your account: it doesn't follow that the NDP would have to vote for a Tory throne speech just because they voted down a Liberal one. Indeed something similar happened in 2007, where the NDP voted down a Liberal amendment to a Tory throne speech, and the Tory throne speech itself, forcing a game of chicken with the Liberals. The Liberals wound up abstaining. That seems like a plausible outcome as well.

Well I suppose that if we had a scenario where the Tories actually had more seats than the Liberals, the NDP could abstain on a Tory Throne speech and it would pass. But I suspect that the Liberals would do absolutely anything possible to avoid relinquishing power in the first place. They would either dare the NDP to defeat them and bring Scheer to power or they would agree to a slew of NDP demands - or some combination of the two.

There are things Trudeau and Singh could discuss and negotiate. There is literally nothing for Singh to talk about with Scheer

You mean that Trudeau and Singh would form a coalition government?

No, Canada doesn't do coalitions.

[MaxQue]

Quebec Proud is sending automated text messages about Quebec producing their own gas instead of "importing it from Trump's USA".

[MaxQue]

https://twitter.com/CochraneCBC/status/1163602982828728320

Seems it make to make place for "known" country singer George Canyon.

[MaxQue]

Hmmm, sounds rather familiar somehow......

Nothing to do with Corbyn scandals. Bnai Brith is a Jewish supremacist organisation that consider any critisism of Israel as anti-semitism.

[MaxQue]

I honestly think a poll not naming local candidates is useless and shows the Liberal partisan lean of Quito Maggi.

[MaxQue]

Maxime Bernier appears to have finally left Beauce, and will be touring around Anglo New Brunswick the next few days. Trying to go after the People's Alliance vote presumably.

Outside of thefour ridings they're targeting, New Brunswick is the best region for polling, probably due to the association/confusion with the PA. 

Beauce, Etobicoke North, Nipissing... what's the fourth one?

Their correspondance to the Debates Commissions mentions Charleswood-St.-James-Assiniboia-Headingley (Steven Fletcher) and Pickering-Uxbridge (former MP Corneliu Chisu).

[MaxQue]

From what I gather in rural Quebec, people see Justin as a victim of mudslinging by opportunistic politicians.

[MaxQue]

Look what a difference it makes when a riding poll gives names of local candidates and not just party names. Ruth Ellen Brosseau of the NDP has a solid lead in her riding

https://www.lenouvelliste.ca/elections-2019/sondage-mainstreetle-nouvelliste-ruth-ellen-brosseau-en-avance-4607807cf318e4b2f98464ccb10f20fa

THIS!
When you don't provide local context, this how polling is used to sku, to mis-inform and to actually try and sway an election. Voters always vote, effectively, twice; the candidate on the ballot and the party.

Anyway, I always thought REB was "mostly safe"
I'd like to see how the other dozen or so NPD held ridings would be polled now, My hunch is the NPD could hold 4-6 mostly on the local candidate. (Caron, Boulerice, REB, PLD) I think demographically Laurier--Sainte-Marie and Hochelaga are likely to be NPD holds even without incumbents.  
Abitibi—Baie-James—Nunavik—Eeyou I think the NPDs candidate has a strong chance, more then in Abitibi—Témiscamingue, but QS was elected out this way so the advantage might be the NPD there.
The rest, probably lost to the LPC or BQ, unless the NPD is lucky.  

Not necessarily, beware local polls with named candidates particularly because the kind of people likely to respond to such surveys tend to have much greater political knowledge than the electorate at large. At the end of the day most 'normal' people have a much stronger opinion on the national party leaders than they do on local candidates (often they don't even know or even care who's standing for their local district) and thus primarily vote based on which leader/party they want to be in charge of the country. In the UK in 2015 for example local constituency polls had the Lib Dems holding lots of constituencies particularly in the West Country based on the personal popularity of the incumbent. In the end virtually all of their MPs (even in seats considered safe like Yeovil) went down in flames as they were dragged down by the huge anti-Lib Dem movement of the country as a whole.

Whilst I don't claim to be an expert on Quebec, it is very unlikely that Ruth Ellen-Brosseau's riding will completely buck the movement of the province as a whole. Thus if the NDP does as appallingly in Quebec as the polls are suggesting, it's very likely she'll be dragged down by the tide regardless of any personal popularity (which is usually grossly exaggerated anyway) that she may have.

She actually has some decent popularity and was one of two NDP candidates in Quebec who got more votes and share in 2015 than in 2011.

[MaxQue]

Yeah, if there's one NDP candidate who will punch above their weight, it's REB. This is fantastic news!

It really does put into doubt some of the riding polling that we've seen. Candidate names change things a lot. Case in point: Our polling for the debate commission vs. our internal numbers.

I'm sure lots of people in her riding don't really think of themselves as "voting NDP" and don't select that option when answering a survey without candidate names.

Also ND signs in Quebec have a tiny NDP logo (and an even tinier "Jagmeet Singh" mention). In some ridings, NDP signs are not orange either.

[MaxQue]

FYI, it’s the local candidates whose names appear on the ballot. Usually a strong local candidate can mean a 5% premium at most but then there are cases of certain MPs who keep bucking the trend. Ralph Goodale should have lost Wascana as a Liberal in each of the last five elections and Kevin Lamoureux winning Winnipeg North for the Liberals when they were getting steamrollered is another. Why did Jean Charest survive in 1993 when every other Tory in Quebec was blown out of the water? I also wonder whether local incumbents may do better than usual in this election because the whole campaign has been so dull and listless and no one seems to have any momentum. In that context more people vote locally

And don't forget Andre Bachand in 2000.  The PCs got 5% in Quebec that time around and in most ridings failed to get their deposit back including adjacent ones, yet he still won, so it does happen.  I think this is especially true if a party with zero chance at winning, people if they dislike the two main party leaders may then be willing to look at local candidate.  With Liberals and Tories probably only 5-10% variance at most since most Canadians have a strong opinion on those parties and a lot want to ensure either Trudeau or Scheer don't win thus won't vote for that party regardless of candidate.

Or Sherbrooke with Jean Charest. He got 60% in 1997 and the party got 6% in by-election to replace him in 1998.

[MaxQue]

Yeah, if there's one NDP candidate who will punch above their weight, it's REB. This is fantastic news!

It really does put into doubt some of the riding polling that we've seen. Candidate names change things a lot. Case in point: Our polling for the debate commission vs. our internal numbers.

I'm sure lots of people in her riding don't really think of themselves as "voting NDP" and don't select that option when answering a survey without candidate names.

Also ND signs in Quebec have a tiny NDP logo (and an even tinier "Jagmeet Singh" mention). In some ridings, NDP signs are not orange either.

What colour are they?

Light blue landscape, like in this video. (https://www.tvanouvelles.ca/2019/09/12/beaucoup-moins-de-pancartes-electorales-dans-trois-rivieres)

[MaxQue]

Candidate count (by myself, may contain mistakes):
Liberal 338
Conservative 338
NDP 338
Green 338
PPC 315
Independents 125
Bloc Québécois 78
Christian Heritage 51
Marxist Leninist 50
Rhinoceros 39
Communist 30
Veterans Coalition 25
Libertarian 24
Animal Protection 17
Parti pour l’indépendance du Québec 13
Fourth Front 7
Marijuana 4
United 4
National Citizens Alliance 4
Progressive 3
Nationalist Party 3
Stop Climate Change 2

Ridings with the most candidates (11):
Papineau
Ottawa Centre

Ridings with the least candidates (4):
Avalon
Bonavista-Burin-Trinity
Coast of Bays-Central-Notre Dame
Labrador
St John's East
Egmont
Malpeque
Halifax West
Acadie-Bathurst
Madawaska-Restigouche
York Centre
Nunavut

[MaxQue]

Conservatives = 337 candidates

Unless the law changed, she is still on the ballot as a Conservative, no?

[MaxQue]

Candidate count (by myself, may contain mistakes):
...
Rhinoceros 39
...
Parti pour l’indépendance du Québec 13


Ridings with the least candidates (4):
...
York Centre

I've cut the list just to keep a few things.
Rhino party doesn't run many candidates. Many people are not crazy about the choices so perhaps they could get votes.
I've read about the PIQ. It seems to be the Martine Ouellet followers. people who want a party to only promote independance.

Surprised to see York Centre on the list of least candidates. Urban ridings ususally have many.

York Centre has 4 candidates for 5th time in a row. Last time they got a non Lib/Con/NDP/Grn candidate was 2004 (an independent).

[MaxQue]

Probably a relief to Scheer as while may not help him, a strike almost certainly would have hurt him and with his horrible showing in the French debate, Quebec is lost for the Tories, so they can ill afford to perform poorly in Ontario as well.

How much would a strike really have hurt him?

By bringing attention on Doug Ford, which the Conservatives want people to forget, given his low popularity.