Canadian Election 2019

[DC Al Fine]

Have to quibble with Miles characterization of Atlantic Canada.
Red Toryism in Atlantic Canada is not same as Red Toryism on the pages of the Globe & Mail. We love our EI benefits, which is why Harperism flopped, but a more free spending, semi-populist (i.e. not as far as Fordism) conservatism could make some solid inroads here.

There has been a ~12% swing which is likely concentrated among rural Anglos. Just eyeballing it I would project the Tories picking up half a dozen rural Anglo seats quite easily and quite possibly more if the Liberals falter a little bit.

[DC Al Fine]

Have to quibble with Miles characterization of Atlantic Canada.
Red Toryism in Atlantic Canada is not same as Red Toryism on the pages of the Globe & Mail. We love our EI benefits, which is why Harperism flopped, but a more free spending, semi-populist (i.e. not as far as Fordism) conservatism could make some solid inroads here.

There has been a ~12% swing which is likely concentrated among rural Anglos. Just eyeballing it I would project the Tories picking up half a dozen rural Anglo seats quite easily and quite possibly more if the Liberals falter a little bit.

Pretty naive of you to try and say something actually relevant, tbh

Thanks I try my best

[DC Al Fine]

Ugh those NS names are horrible. No one uses ______ Nova in real life.

[DC Al Fine]

I think it would be a mistake for Tories to rely heavily on personal attacks on Lil Justin. I understand there's something about his personality that drives the cadre nuts, but it's clear your median swing voters don't share this antipathy, finding him on balance a nice enough person. For some reason, the conservative party of Canada really likes its negative campaigning, but I don't see it working unless combined with some national recession (which of course can't be ruled out).

Agreed, but what would you propose as an alternative strategy?

Weird question: can Liberals penetrate more of Calgary, given their liberal Mayor and vast expanding population?

Long term sure, but in the short term, low oil prices and lack of pipeline progress have pushed unemployment well over the national average. That negative Tory campaign during a recession strategy that you mentioned would be more applicable here than the rest of the country. The Liberals are already down 7-8% since the last election in Alberta and its not like they had much room to fall outside the big cities.

Plus, as Miles mentioned, both of the Liberal Calgary MP's have been MeToo'd which doesn't help.

[DC Al Fine]

Depends how totally the NDP collapses. A lot of the Liberals' vote efficiency is because there are a number of seats where they would have enormous margins in a straight LPC-CPC fight but the LPC numbers are brought down by sizeable NDP votes. If the NDP does really poorly (<10 seats) at the next election, which doesn't seem implausible, the Liberals probably don't have a vote concentration advantage because they'll be approaching 70%+ in a lot of urban ridings.

Let's remember that the Libs were disadvantaged in 1979 because *they* had the overly-plumped-vote circumstance--Quebec was for them then what Alberta/Prairies is for CPC presently.

A lot, too, might depend on whether Bernier's PPC has any discernable ballot-box traction, whether as winner or as spoiler...

Ironically it is Alberta not Quebec where Bernier is most popular so if he does gain any traction, probably will be mostly in Conservative strongholds thus reducing their margins but not costing them the seats so more vote efficient.  That being said unless he somehow gets into the debates, I suspect his party will go nowhere.

If Bernier's party gets back their deposit anywhere besides Beauce, Yellowhead and Calgary Heritage wouldn't be the worst places to do it.

[DC Al Fine]

Will Bernier win his own seat to begin with? Also, how much do you need to get back a deposit in Canada?

To get deposit back is 10% and outside his own riding and rural Alberta I suspect there will be few of those.  He will probably lose his own riding the question is to whom.  Will it go Tory as it is a fairly conservative area or will the splits be strong enough to allow the Liberals to come up the middle, hard to say.

Jeppe just posted about that Mainstreet poll. Bernier and the Tories are tied at about 35% in Beauce. Everyone else is around 10%

[DC Al Fine]

Will Bernier win his own seat to begin with? Also, how much do you need to get back a deposit in Canada?

To get deposit back is 10% and outside his own riding and rural Alberta I suspect there will be few of those.  He will probably lose his own riding the question is to whom.  Will it go Tory as it is a fairly conservative area or will the splits be strong enough to allow the Liberals to come up the middle, hard to say.

Jeppe just posted about that Mainstreet poll. Bernier and the Tories are tied at about 35% in Beauce. Everyone else is around 10%

If the PLC took 22 % of the vote in Beauce in the last election, maybe Beauce could be winnable for Trudeau.

I'm pretty skeptical on that.

The Liberals are more or less matching their 2015 Quebec result. If we re ran the 2015 election and split the 2015 Tory vote equally in two, the Liberal candidate would still be down by 7%. The Tories are actually up in Quebec as well. The only way the Liberals win this seat is the Tory/People's vote spluts perfectly and there's a substanstial trend towards Trudeau in rural Quebec. That riding poll indicates that if there's a trend, it's in the wrong direction for the Grits.

[DC Al Fine]

Since a few natives got arrested last night for protesting, I’m curious to see how they vote. Is it split between NDP and the Liberals? Will the recent pipeline controversy lead to a changing voting pattern?

To add to what Miles said, there's a weird southernesque racial voting pattern in northern Mantoba and Sasketchewan.

If you look at poll maps for thos ridings on

http://www.election-atlas.ca

In those areas the white areas will vote 80%+ or the Tories, and the reservations will vote NDP/Liberal by similar margins.

[DC Al Fine]

Scott Brison is not running for re-election.  Since this was a Tory stronghold before he crossed the floor, this would normally make this a target for the Tories, but with how badly they were damaged in 2015, I suspect the Liberals should be able to hold this even if not quite the same blowout as in 2015.

Preface: I still think the Liberals win Kings-Hants rather comfortably.

The Tories have recovered quite a bit in Atlantic Canada, and rural Anglo ridings are the sort of place where I would expect the recovery to disproportionately occur. Also, local politics matter a lot more out east, so Brison's departure will hurt the Liberals more than a typical popular cabinet retirement. The Tories could scrape out a victory if everything goes right.

My actual prediction for a surprise Tory win is Cumberland-Colchester.

[DC Al Fine]

Candidate update:

The Tories are running several former MP's in Atlantic Canada: Scott Armstrong (Cumberland-Colchester),  Rob Moore (Fundy-Royal), and John Williamson (New Brunswick Southwest). All three have a decent chance at reclaiming their seats.

They have also have a possible star candidate; Chris d'Entremont in West Nova. d'Entremont is the Tory MLA for Argyle-Barrington and is a former cabinet minister. West Nova should still go Liberal but d'Entremont could make it interesting.

[DC Al Fine]

Anyone know where the new Bloc leader is going to run?

[DC Al Fine]

Interesting, Tories would have two point lead if PPC votes all went to them, but with such a small percentage I think will only matter if super close.

This might strike some as counterintuitive; but drawing from the Reform experience a quarter century ago, might PPC be stealing populist votes from the NDP as well?

Certainly possible.  In Europe, many of the right wing populists are gaining from traditional social democratic votes, in Toronto many of the strongest areas that voted for Rob Ford in 2010 and Doug Ford in 2014 are NDP/Liberal areas in the suburbs.   Likewise Trump won many traditional Democrat blue collar areas.  However with only 4% its such a small number that it is tough to really tell, it would need to be higher to get a clearer picture.

If (and that's a big if) they're polling over 1%, it probably depends on region. The People's Party is doing best in Alberta amd Quebec. Quebec, I can see, but I have a hard time imagining Bernier taking many votes from 2015 Alberta NDP supporters. His demographic there would be cranky Tories.

[DC Al Fine]

Leger Quebec poll: 39/21/21/8/6. Grit gains, Dipper shutout and Bernier threatening to split the Quebec City vote.

NDP at 8%?! Geez Louise.

[DC Al Fine]

If everything goes perfectly for the Liberals they can win Beauce. I'd put the odds at something like 45-45-10

[DC Al Fine]

Long time Liberal MP Mark Eyking (Sydney-Victoria) will not reoffer in October. Should still be a safe Liberal seat. Other Nova Scotia Liberals not running again are Bill Casey (Cumberland-Colchester), Scott Brison (Kings-Hants) and Colin Fraser (West Nova), all of which will be more interesting races than Sydney to one degree or another.

[DC Al Fine]

Long time Liberal MP Mark Eyking (Sydney-Victoria) will not reoffer in October. Should still be a safe Liberal seat. Other Nova Scotia Liberals not running again are Bill Casey (Cumberland-Colchester), Scott Brison (Kings-Hants) and Colin Fraser (West Nova), all of which will be more interesting races than Sydney to one degree or another.

Sydney-Victoria is quite safe so don't think the Liberals will have any trouble holding it.  Ironically provincially it went quite heavily PC, but the PCs provincially are Red Tories so lots of crossover votes.  West Nova and Kings-Hants I think will stay Liberal too although probably tighter than 2015, but I think it will take a few elections for the Tories to recover from the 2015 disaster.  Cumberland-Colchester I could see flipping, in fact of the Nova Scotia ridings it is the only one I think the Tories have a reasonably decent shot at.  Although wouldn't be surprised if it stays Liberal as I doubt the Tories will get over 50% there and with NDP being so weak, 40% might not be enough.

Yeah, the Tory situation in Cape Breton is really weird right now. Cape Bretoners tend to really dislike the Tories, even the provincial red ones. It was the base of the provincial Liberals for a very long time. Cape Breton is having a healthcare crisis right now due to an aging population, being unattractive to physicians etc, and they have way more hospitals per capita than the rest of the province, which are going to be consolidated. The provincial Liberals have done a poor job managing the issue, and the last Tory leader (who wasn't especially effective otherwise) did a very good job of exploiting it.

West Nova I can see as sleeper as the Tories have a star Francophone candidate.

[DC Al Fine]

With the recent cabinet resignation and bombshell on the SNC-Lavalin meeting it will be interesting to see if this has any impact on the polls.  My guess is it will have a minor impact short-term, but whether it damages the Liberals or not depends on what comes out and how long the issue drags on.  People tend to have short term memories so usually you need a whole series of such scandals to bring down a government.  Nonetheless any negative press close to the election will be what is top of mind.  I also think it depends on who the ballot question is about.  Considering how cynical Canadians are, if on Trudeau its probably bad news for the Liberals since while not hated by any means, he hasn't lived up to the high expectations people had.  But if on Scheer probably good news for Liberals as nothing inspiring about him and plenty of areas you can attack him, mind you he was safer choice than Bernier who would have been a disaster for the Conservatives.

 The Tories will try to frame it as does Trudeau deserve a second term, Liberals is Scheer too extreme and risky to vote for, and NDP neither of the two main parties are working time to try something different.  NDP's main problem is the Liberals have pushed enough leftwards so not a lot of breathing room for them. Tories by contrast do have the potential to appeal to Blue Liberals/Red Tories who are probably not keen on Trudeau's big spending, but the risk is become too centrist and risk the PPC gaining thus splitting the vote so caught in a tight spot.  Go too far right and thus fail to win the key swing voters they need, go too much towards the centre and risk a split on the right.

It will help Liberals in Quebec, as it's seen as taking risks to protect a Quebec company and its well-paying jobs (and so agrees the Bloc, wierdly).

Maybe but adscam really hurt them there.  I tend to think this will cause a short term dip in the polls much like India trip, but unless it drags through the summer the impact in the next general election will be minimal.  Liberal strength in Quebec is more due to NDP collapse, BQ struggling to stay alive, and CPC never except in a few occasions like Mulroney in the 80s being quite weak outside the Quebec City region.

The PM’s office might have interfered in judicial proceedings and people in Quebec might say that that is great???

The Quebecois are quite protective of their institutions. SNC-Lavalin (the corporation at the centre of all this), is a major employer and one of a handful of major global companies based in Quebec. The expectation is that Quebecois voters will look the other way on the scandal. Punditry seems to confirm this, with Francophone newspapers apparently taking a much more sympathetic approach to the affair than the Anglo media.

[DC Al Fine]

First post scandal poll is out from Campaign Research

Conservative: 37%
Liberal: 32%
NDP: 14%
Green: 7%
Bloc: 5%
People's: 3%

Large change from pre-scandal polling but not a major shift from the last Campaign Research poll, which had the Liberals and Tories statistically tied.

[DC Al Fine]

Ah sh-t.

There's an argument to be made that this is all the NDP's fault for bucking Tom Mulcair. He'd be ravaging the government on the daily in Question Period and come off like a reasonable, responsible, progressive leader. Instead there's bumbling Singh who has a snowflake's chance in Hell of presenting the NDP as a reasonable alternative to the Liberals.

But I digress.

NDP voters made a serious miscalculation. I know they wanted someone to outcharisma Trudeau but it's the Liberals. Something like this was bound to happen eventually.

[DC Al Fine]

Ah sh-t.

There's an argument to be made that this is all the NDP's fault for bucking Tom Mulcair. He'd be ravaging the government on the daily in Question Period and come off like a reasonable, responsible, progressive leader. Instead there's bumbling Singh who has a snowflake's chance in Hell of presenting the NDP as a reasonable alternative to the Liberals.

But I digress.

NDP voters made a serious miscalculation. I know they wanted someone to outcharisma Trudeau but it's the Liberals. Something like this was bound to happen eventually.

The Conservatives are even more corrupt, they're just more brazen about it and they have most of the media on their side.

For instance, CBC did a series of stories about a decade ago on how the Conservatives helped the pipeline industry cover up oil spills, but outside of the CBC, it was never reported on.

For someone who goes to such efforts to chronicle GOP misbehaviour south of the border, that your first response to a Canadian Liberal scandal on Atlas was #BothSidesTenYearsAgo is rather telling.

Hacks gonna hack I guess.

[DC Al Fine]

He's really going to do it. He's really going to lose. Unbelievable.

I think it's more likely that Prime Minister Justin Trudeau resigns.  I certainly hope he is considering doing that.

You must be kidding.

Agreed. It would take a big smoking gun for the PM to resign, and even then, we're so close to an election its more likely the Liberals just go down in defeat with Trudeau rather than change leaders so late in the game.

[DC Al Fine]

Ah sh-t.

There's an argument to be made that this is all the NDP's fault for bucking Tom Mulcair. He'd be ravaging the government on the daily in Question Period and come off like a reasonable, responsible, progressive leader. Instead there's bumbling Singh who has a snowflake's chance in Hell of presenting the NDP as a reasonable alternative to the Liberals.

But I digress.

NDP voters made a serious miscalculation. I know they wanted someone to outcharisma Trudeau but it's the Liberals. Something like this was bound to happen eventually.

The Conservatives are even more corrupt, they're just more brazen about it and they have most of the media on their side.

For instance, CBC did a series of stories about a decade ago on how the Conservatives helped the pipeline industry cover up oil spills, but outside of the CBC, it was never reported on.

For someone who goes to such efforts to chronicle GOP misbehaviour south of the border, that your first response to a Canadian Liberal scandal on Atlas was #BothSidesTenYearsAgo is rather telling.

Hacks gonna hack I guess.

Your argument was 'but it's the Liberals' which implies that the Liberals are inherently corrupt or are worse than the other political parties.  What response other than what I gave would you expect?

If you want to see a Conservative Party hack, take a look in the mirror.

You're missing my point entirely. My experience with you has been that you are very quick to discuss conservative scandals at home and abroad. If you want to argue about which parties are corrupt fine... But LavScam broke over a week ago. It's potentially a huge scandal in our own backyard. And you didn't say anything about it on Atlas for a week, and when you finally did comment, the first thing you posted was "Tories are bad too".

Looking through this thread, we see a Liberal scandal, and what do you post? A one liner about the PM and paragraphs and paragraphs about how the Tories are bad. Sounds like something a hack would do...If it looks like an anti-Tory hack and talks like a hack... well it's probably a hack.

But dont listen to me, I'm just a hack for a party I don't vote for half the time. After all I did complain about the Liberals being corrupt during a Liberal corruption scandal

[DC Al Fine]

Ipsos has a new poll

36-34-17
No detailed splits that I could fine. Similar to the Campaign Research poll, it shows a modest bump for the Tories

This thread's being, er, distracted by politics.  In the end, it's not about which side is *right* (or clean, or corrupt, or whatever), as much as it's about how the virtues and pitfalls communicate themselves to the voter. 

And at this point, it's still far from clear that it's all a fatal blow to Liberal chances--the election's still a ways off, and the presently-hobbled Libs can ultimately still generate a fair bit of not-the-Cons momentum.  (If this all happened midcampaign, as in the 2006 election, things would be a lot different.)

Agreed. A knockout blow would require big news after summer break. For now the Tories and NDP are just going to have to hope for a drip drip of bad news stories adds up to something bigger.

[DC Al Fine]

Ipsos has a new poll

36-34-17
No detailed splits that I could fine. Similar to the Campaign Research poll, it shows a modest bump for the Tories

This thread's being, er, distracted by politics.  In the end, it's not about which side is *right* (or clean, or corrupt, or whatever), as much as it's about how the virtues and pitfalls communicate themselves to the voter. 

And at this point, it's still far from clear that it's all a fatal blow to Liberal chances--the election's still a ways off, and the presently-hobbled Libs can ultimately still generate a fair bit of not-the-Cons momentum.  (If this all happened midcampaign, as in the 2006 election, things would be a lot different.)

Agreed. A knockout blow would require big news after summer break. For now the Tories and NDP are just going to have to hope for a drip drip of bad news stories adds up to something bigger.

And whatever the scandal, either side is going to be handicapped for being "who they are" to a certain type of voter of an opposite inclination.  That's why holding-one's-nose strategic voting has *always* existed--indeed, it might be argued that the current Lib circumstance might ironically push *more* panicky voters (presumably of the ex-NDP/Green sort) into the Lib camp so as to desperately try to deny the Cons a majority...

Ah, shades of 2004-2006

[DC Al Fine]

Jody Wilson-Raybould appeared before committee yesterday and testified that she faced 'veiled threats' about SNC-Lavalin and, that the group pressuring her included the Prime Minister.

Trudeau's camp has moved from denial to talking about saving jobs in Quebec. Scheer called for the PM to resign, and Singh is calling for an independent inquiry. I think Singh's coming off the best here. Scheer's call for resignation was over the top, and not the best for the opposition electorally either. Trudeau is coming off as cynical talking jobs after the denial, and direct testimony from JWR. I think it's safe to say sunny ways are over.

Will be interested the see the polls in the next week or so.