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  Canadian Election 2019
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Author Topic: Canadian Election 2019  (Read 119678 times)
RogueBeaver
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« Reply #2075 on: October 30, 2019, 03:30:42 pm »

So far anti-Scheer rebellious noises have been mostly coming from Quebec - couple of senators (Jean-Guy Dagenais and Josee Verner), publicly wobbly (Joel Godin, Jacques Gourde) or anonymously sniping MPs and to a lesser extent, Ontario. Now MacKay took a public swipe at Scheer.
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« Reply #2076 on: October 30, 2019, 03:45:38 pm »

Ipsos conducted an exit poll which included a question about how you would vote under straight PR. Actual poll results only added up to 95%, so I pro-rated the extra 5% by vote share. Seat change is vs actual FPTP results.

Tory: 31.6%, 107 seats (-14)
Liberal: 27.4%, 93 seats (-64)
NDP: 21.0%, 71 seats (+47)
Green: 8.4%, 28 seats (+25)
Bloc: 7.4%, 25 seats (-7)
People's: 4.2%, 14 seats (+14)

Tl;dr: PPC enters parliament (or narrowly misses out if we have a 5% threshhold), Liberals would have tremendous difficulty forming government on their own, and would need the support of the NDP + Bloc and/or Greens to pass anything. We probably see a coalition or at the very least a more formal arrangement with the NDP.

One wonders what seats would flip if people voted their true intentions under FPTP. Obviously there are many people who "vote strategically" despite not living in a riding where it's necessary.

Of course, even under PR people would vote strategically, as a lot of people think most seats=winner. (This explains why otherwise smart people vote strategically in ridings that the Tories have no chance in).
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DistingFlyer
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« Reply #2077 on: October 30, 2019, 03:52:24 pm »

1917 really was one crazy election. Conscription was the ultimate wedge issue.


Yes indeed, though - to my surprise, looking over the figures - the Tories' biggest margin in that election was 79.2% in Brandon; had expected this figure to exceed comfortably Damien Kurek's 80.4% margin of last week, but apparently it didn't. (The 89.6% of the vote won in Brandon exceeded the 85.5% in Battle River Crowfoot, of course.)

The biggest Liberal win was in Bellechasse, where they got 97.7% of the vote to 1.6% for the Tories - a 96.1% margin of victory, that hasn't been exceeded by anybody since.

In the early days, one sometimes saw a high-profile member opposed by an independent or maybe a token Liberal/Tory, and the margins could be very lopsided. I can't be certain that those two shares of the vote weren't exceeded in one of the first few General Elections, though if they were it wouldn't have been by very much . . .
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King of Kensington
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« Reply #2078 on: October 30, 2019, 03:54:33 pm »

The 1917 election was rigged so immigrants from "enemy countries" couldn't vote.  

One group that couldn't be barred from voting was the German Canadian electorate in the Waterloo region.  

https://www.tvo.org/article/a-look-at-one-of-the-ugliest-federal-election-campaigns-in-canadian-history
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DistingFlyer
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« Reply #2079 on: October 30, 2019, 04:00:11 pm »

One region of the country that wasn't affected much by the huge swings nationwide was the Maritime provinces:

In Nova Scotia, the Tories went from a 2% deficit in 1911 to a 2% lead in 1917;
in New Brunswick, they went from a 2% deficit in 1911 to a 13% lead in 1917; and
in PEI, they went from a 1% lead in 1911 to a 1% deficit in 1917 (apart from Quebec, the only province to record a swing against them).

Overall, the region went from a 2% Liberal lead in 1911 to a 6% Tory one in 1917. Compare that to Ontario, where the Tories' lead swelled from 13% to 30%, and out West, where it jumped from a 4% deficit to a 44% lead. Quebec, on the other hand, saw a 2% lead plunge to a 47% deficit.
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vileplume
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« Reply #2080 on: October 30, 2019, 06:29:24 pm »

1917 really was one crazy election. Conscription was the ultimate wedge issue.


Yes indeed, though - to my surprise, looking over the figures - the Tories' biggest margin in that election was 79.2% in Brandon; had expected this figure to exceed comfortably Damien Kurek's 80.4% margin of last week, but apparently it didn't. (The 89.6% of the vote won in Brandon exceeded the 85.5% in Battle River Crowfoot, of course.)

The biggest Liberal win was in Bellechasse, where they got 97.7% of the vote to 1.6% for the Tories - a 96.1% margin of victory, that hasn't been exceeded by anybody since.

In the early days, one sometimes saw a high-profile member opposed by an independent or maybe a token Liberal/Tory, and the margins could be very lopsided. I can't be certain that those two shares of the vote weren't exceeded in one of the first few General Elections, though if they were it wouldn't have been by very much . . .

Which interestingly is now the safest Tory seat in Quebec!
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DistingFlyer
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« Reply #2081 on: October 30, 2019, 07:08:13 pm »
« Edited: October 30, 2019, 07:17:15 pm by DistingFlyer »

1917 really was one crazy election. Conscription was the ultimate wedge issue.


Yes indeed, though - to my surprise, looking over the figures - the Tories' biggest margin in that election was 79.2% in Brandon; had expected this figure to exceed comfortably Damien Kurek's 80.4% margin of last week, but apparently it didn't. (The 89.6% of the vote won in Brandon exceeded the 85.5% in Battle River Crowfoot, of course.)

The biggest Liberal win was in Bellechasse, where they got 97.7% of the vote to 1.6% for the Tories - a 96.1% margin of victory, that hasn't been exceeded by anybody since.

In the early days, one sometimes saw a high-profile member opposed by an independent or maybe a token Liberal/Tory, and the margins could be very lopsided. I can't be certain that those two shares of the vote weren't exceeded in one of the first few General Elections, though if they were it wouldn't have been by very much . . .

Which interestingly is now the safest Tory seat in Quebec!


The 1917 Liberal lead was much greater in rural Quebec than in Montreal; a reflection, I suppose, of the significant anglophone population at the time (province-wide, the ratio of French to English was 2 to 1, as opposed to the 10 to 1 that it is now).

The three Tory ridings that survived the Liberal sweep were all in Montreal: St. Anne, St. Antoine & St. Lawrence St. George. The Montreal vote was 59% Liberal to 38% Conservative, while the rest of the province went 80% Liberal to 18% Conservative (and that's with a dozen or so Liberals winning unopposed). The 1921 election saw Montreal get closer into line with the rest of the province, as it voted Liberal 71% to 18% while the remainder went Liberal 70% to 18%.

Six years previously, Montreal had gone Conservative 49% to 37%, while the rest of the province remained Liberal 51% to 49%.

If you told a political observer a century ago that the Tories would not only become a presence in Quebec again, but that they'd do so in the rural areas, I doubt he'd have believed you.

How Quebec voted in subsequent good years for the Tories is as follows:

1930
Montreal - 54% Liberal, 43% Conservative
Remainder - 53% Liberal, 45% Conservative

1958
Montreal - 47% Conservative, 46% Liberal
Remainder - 51% Conservative, 45% Liberal

1984
Montreal - 42% Conservative, 39% Liberal
Remainder - 54% Conservative, 34% Liberal

1988
Montreal - 44% Conservative, 39% Liberal
Remainder - 57% Conservative, 26% Liberal


To run down some of the 1917 equivalents to presently-held Tory ridings, we see the following:

Beauce - Liberal unopposed
Bellechasse - Liberal wins by 96%
Chicoutimi Saguenay - Liberal wins by 84%
Drummond Arthabaska - Liberal unopposed
Kamouraska - Liberal wins by 90%
Levis - Liberal wins by 68%
L'Islet - Liberal unopposed
Lotbiniere - Liberal wins by 92%
Megantic - Liberal unopposed
Montmagny - Liberal wins by 28% (Tories third, 62% behind the Liberals)
Portneuf - Liberal unopposed
Quebec County - Liberal wins by 80%
Quebec West - Liberal wins by 87%
Richmond Wolfe - Liberal wins by 60%

So not only do we see a clean Liberal sweep, but by greater margins in every riding than in the province as a whole (where they won by 47%).
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #2082 on: October 30, 2019, 08:02:48 pm »

Ipsos conducted an exit poll which included a question about how you would vote under straight PR. Actual poll results only added up to 95%, so I pro-rated the extra 5% by vote share. Seat change is vs actual FPTP results.

Tory: 31.6%, 107 seats (-14)
Liberal: 27.4%, 93 seats (-64)
NDP: 21.0%, 71 seats (+47)
Green: 8.4%, 28 seats (+25)
Bloc: 7.4%, 25 seats (-7)
People's: 4.2%, 14 seats (+14)

Tl;dr: PPC enters parliament (or narrowly misses out if we have a 5% threshhold), Liberals would have tremendous difficulty forming government on their own, and would need the support of the NDP + Bloc and/or Greens to pass anything. We probably see a coalition or at the very least a more formal arrangement with the NDP.

One wonders what seats would flip if people voted their true intentions under FPTP. Obviously there are many people who "vote strategically" despite not living in a riding where it's necessary.

Of course, even under PR people would vote strategically, as a lot of people think most seats=winner. (This explains why otherwise smart people vote strategically in ridings that the Tories have no chance in).

Interesting question. I'm annoyed Ipsos didn't provide crosstabs on that question. n was nearly 10,000 so we could've had some solid regional numbers to play with. Just eyeballing it, the Tories probably pick up most of York region and a few more Atlantic seats. NDP probably wins a few in central Toronto and that Windsor seat they lost. Come to think of it, the NDP probably lost a couple seats to the Libs because of tactical voting Tongue Greens probably win a seat or two off the NDP in Vancouver Island.

What does tactical voting look like in Quebec?
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #2083 on: October 31, 2019, 07:25:41 am »

So far anti-Scheer rebellious noises have been mostly coming from Quebec - couple of senators (Jean-Guy Dagenais and Josee Verner), publicly wobbly (Joel Godin, Jacques Gourde) or anonymously sniping MPs and to a lesser extent, Ontario. Now MacKay took a public swipe at Scheer.

To paraphrase Chris Warkentin: "Strong words for a guy who wasn't on the ice"
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #2084 on: October 31, 2019, 07:55:06 am »
« Edited: October 31, 2019, 12:55:03 pm by RogueBeaver »



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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #2085 on: October 31, 2019, 05:10:00 pm »

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President Pericles
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« Reply #2086 on: October 31, 2019, 08:59:24 pm »

How come the NDP seems to routine be overrated by the polls? This election, Alberta 2019, Ontario 2018, and arguably the 2015 election all come to mind as examples of the NDP underperforming their poll numbers. It can't all be late swings surely?
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ON Progressive
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« Reply #2087 on: October 31, 2019, 09:02:31 pm »

How come the NDP seems to routine be overrated by the polls? This election, Alberta 2019, Ontario 2018, and arguably the 2015 election all come to mind as examples of the NDP underperforming their poll numbers. It can't all be late swings surely?

Part of it is that the NDP are more reliant on younger voters than other parties, and another part of it is the NDP GOTV infrastructure is a lot weaker than the Liberals or Conservatives. I'm sure there's other reasons too though.
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lilTommy
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« Reply #2088 on: November 01, 2019, 06:54:38 am »

How come the NDP seems to routine be overrated by the polls? This election, Alberta 2019, Ontario 2018, and arguably the 2015 election all come to mind as examples of the NDP underperforming their poll numbers. It can't all be late swings surely?

Part of it is that the NDP are more reliant on younger voters than other parties, and another part of it is the NDP GOTV infrastructure is a lot weaker than the Liberals or Conservatives. I'm sure there's other reasons too though.

I think in Ontario 2018, the NDP peaked earlier and then failed to capitalize on it, but they were polling about 30-35% in that last few days and got about 33%. I think the party made a few mistakes that last week and many anti-OLP voters who were polling ONDP moved to the OPC. Again strategic voting always hurts the NDP, even when the NDP/ONDP were polling ahead of the OLP, the OLP was pushing strategic voting against the ONDP.
That was a different case then we saw here in Fed2019. Here we did see the NDP peak at a good point, a few days earlier would have been nicer but, the last weekend we saw a massive push to vote strategically, and many Progressive voters who lean NDP voted LPC... you can see that in the cities, particularly in Toronto.
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #2089 on: November 01, 2019, 07:47:41 am »

How come the NDP seems to routine be overrated by the polls? This election, Alberta 2019, Ontario 2018, and arguably the 2015 election all come to mind as examples of the NDP underperforming their poll numbers. It can't all be late swings surely?

Part of it is that the NDP are more reliant on younger voters than other parties, and another part of it is the NDP GOTV infrastructure is a lot weaker than the Liberals or Conservatives. I'm sure there's other reasons too though.

I think in Ontario 2018, the NDP peaked earlier and then failed to capitalize on it, but they were polling about 30-35% in that last few days and got about 33%. I think the party made a few mistakes that last week and many anti-OLP voters who were polling ONDP moved to the OPC. Again strategic voting always hurts the NDP, even when the NDP/ONDP were polling ahead of the OLP, the OLP was pushing strategic voting against the ONDP.
That was a different case then we saw here in Fed2019. Here we did see the NDP peak at a good point, a few days earlier would have been nicer but, the last weekend we saw a massive push to vote strategically, and many Progressive voters who lean NDP voted LPC...you can see that in the cities, particularly in Toronto.

Which was lolworthy given the poor NDP results in Toronto seats the Tories had no chance of winning. I'd love to know how many people voted tactically when it didn't matter or voted tactically in the wrong direction Tongue
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #2090 on: November 01, 2019, 07:55:58 am »

More fun with FPTP. Here are the biggest "Aw come on!" (I.e. highest share of the vote where they still lost) results for each party:

Conservative
King-Vaughan: 43.2%
Richmond Hill: 43.0%

Liberal
Aurora-Oak Ridges-Richmond Hill: 42.4%

NDP
Davenport: 41.0%

Bloc
Gaspesie-Les Iles de la Madeleine: 40.8%

Green
Victoria: 29.9%
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lilTommy
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« Reply #2091 on: November 01, 2019, 12:19:30 pm »

How come the NDP seems to routine be overrated by the polls? This election, Alberta 2019, Ontario 2018, and arguably the 2015 election all come to mind as examples of the NDP underperforming their poll numbers. It can't all be late swings surely?

Part of it is that the NDP are more reliant on younger voters than other parties, and another part of it is the NDP GOTV infrastructure is a lot weaker than the Liberals or Conservatives. I'm sure there's other reasons too though.

I think in Ontario 2018, the NDP peaked earlier and then failed to capitalize on it, but they were polling about 30-35% in that last few days and got about 33%. I think the party made a few mistakes that last week and many anti-OLP voters who were polling ONDP moved to the OPC. Again strategic voting always hurts the NDP, even when the NDP/ONDP were polling ahead of the OLP, the OLP was pushing strategic voting against the ONDP.
That was a different case then we saw here in Fed2019. Here we did see the NDP peak at a good point, a few days earlier would have been nicer but, the last weekend we saw a massive push to vote strategically, and many Progressive voters who lean NDP voted LPC...you can see that in the cities, particularly in Toronto.

Which was lolworthy given the poor NDP results in Toronto seats the Tories had no chance of winning. I'd love to know how many people voted tactically when it didn't matter or voted tactically in the wrong direction Tongue

You would be surprised! It was infuriating, particularly in the NDP targets that people legit thought they have to vote LPC to stop the CPC... the issue is they did not understand the local vs national polling and voting.
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politicallefty
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« Reply #2092 on: November 02, 2019, 03:30:49 am »

Maybe I'm missing something here, but I'm still surprised by Edmonton's reversion to the Tories (Calgary wasn't surprising, but I figured there was a chance in the more urban core ridings). At the provincial level (and yes, I'm well-aware of the differences between federal and provincial politics), Edmonton was still very much a fortress for the NDP. Vote splitting can certainly not be blamed for the Liberals losing Edmonton Centre considering the NDP vote share dropped by almost 4% from 2015. What explains the divergence between federal and provincial politics in Edmonton? I suppose more specifically, what does a federal Conservative/provincial NDP voter look like (particularly in Edmonton)? And we're talking about elections only 6 months apart, so not exactly far apart.
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #2093 on: November 02, 2019, 06:32:20 am »

Maybe I'm missing something here, but I'm still surprised by Edmonton's reversion to the Tories (Calgary wasn't surprising, but I figured there was a chance in the more urban core ridings). At the provincial level (and yes, I'm well-aware of the differences between federal and provincial politics), Edmonton was still very much a fortress for the NDP. Vote splitting can certainly not be blamed for the Liberals losing Edmonton Centre considering the NDP vote share dropped by almost 4% from 2015. What explains the divergence between federal and provincial politics in Edmonton? I suppose more specifically, what does a federal Conservative/provincial NDP voter look like (particularly in Edmonton)? And we're talking about elections only 6 months apart, so not exactly far apart.

The Alberta NDP is pro-oil and pro-pipeline, while the national party is not. Moreover, the West and particularly Alberta are irritated right now. Edmonton and Calgary have some of the highest unemployment rates of any metro in the country. The Tories are perceived as the defenders of the West, while the national progressive parties are perceived as indifferent or openly hostile to their interests. The Alberta NDP doesn't suffer from that problem.

There's not a huge amount polling about who exactly those switching voters are, but just eyeballing it from polls and the final result, they seem to disproportionately be college educated women living in the suburbs.
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« Reply #2094 on: November 02, 2019, 12:50:13 pm »

How come the NDP seems to routine be overrated by the polls? This election, Alberta 2019, Ontario 2018, and arguably the 2015 election all come to mind as examples of the NDP underperforming their poll numbers. It can't all be late swings surely?

Part of it is that the NDP are more reliant on younger voters than other parties, and another part of it is the NDP GOTV infrastructure is a lot weaker than the Liberals or Conservatives. I'm sure there's other reasons too though.

I think in Ontario 2018, the NDP peaked earlier and then failed to capitalize on it, but they were polling about 30-35% in that last few days and got about 33%. I think the party made a few mistakes that last week and many anti-OLP voters who were polling ONDP moved to the OPC. Again strategic voting always hurts the NDP, even when the NDP/ONDP were polling ahead of the OLP, the OLP was pushing strategic voting against the ONDP.
That was a different case then we saw here in Fed2019. Here we did see the NDP peak at a good point, a few days earlier would have been nicer but, the last weekend we saw a massive push to vote strategically, and many Progressive voters who lean NDP voted LPC...you can see that in the cities, particularly in Toronto.

Which was lolworthy given the poor NDP results in Toronto seats the Tories had no chance of winning. I'd love to know how many people voted tactically when it didn't matter or voted tactically in the wrong direction Tongue

You would be surprised! It was infuriating, particularly in the NDP targets that people legit thought they have to vote LPC to stop the CPC... the issue is they did not understand the local vs national polling and voting.

Time for the NDP to make some misleading "Lib Dem" style bar charts and send them to voters in Downtown Toronto ridings!
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King of Kensington
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« Reply #2095 on: November 02, 2019, 03:30:57 pm »

In Davenport Cash was likely done in by strategic voting, I'm not buying it for PHP and Danforth though.
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King of Kensington
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« Reply #2096 on: November 02, 2019, 03:39:28 pm »

Maybe I'm missing something here, but I'm still surprised by Edmonton's reversion to the Tories (Calgary wasn't surprising, but I figured there was a chance in the more urban core ridings). At the provincial level (and yes, I'm well-aware of the differences between federal and provincial politics), Edmonton was still very much a fortress for the NDP. Vote splitting can certainly not be blamed for the Liberals losing Edmonton Centre considering the NDP vote share dropped by almost 4% from 2015. What explains the divergence between federal and provincial politics in Edmonton? I suppose more specifically, what does a federal Conservative/provincial NDP voter look like (particularly in Edmonton)? And we're talking about elections only 6 months apart, so not exactly far apart.

The Conservatives are the "party of Alberta." Also provincial conservative austerity hurts Alberta more than federal Conservative austerity would.  The right-wing polls about 10 points behind the federal Conservatives.
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DistingFlyer
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« Reply #2097 on: November 02, 2019, 08:14:47 pm »

Maybe I'm missing something here, but I'm still surprised by Edmonton's reversion to the Tories (Calgary wasn't surprising, but I figured there was a chance in the more urban core ridings). At the provincial level (and yes, I'm well-aware of the differences between federal and provincial politics), Edmonton was still very much a fortress for the NDP. Vote splitting can certainly not be blamed for the Liberals losing Edmonton Centre considering the NDP vote share dropped by almost 4% from 2015. What explains the divergence between federal and provincial politics in Edmonton? I suppose more specifically, what does a federal Conservative/provincial NDP voter look like (particularly in Edmonton)? And we're talking about elections only 6 months apart, so not exactly far apart.

The Conservatives are the "party of Alberta." Also provincial conservative austerity hurts Alberta more than federal Conservative austerity would.  The right-wing polls about 10 points behind the federal Conservatives.

In general, the federal NDP does much less well in the four Western provinces than its provincial wings:

British Columbia - highest provincial vote: 45% (1979); highest federal vote: 37% (1988)
Alberta - highest provincial vote: 41% (2015); highest federal vote: 17% (1988)
Saskatchewan - highest provincial vote: 55% (1971); highest federal vote: 44% (1945)
Manitoba - highest provincial vote: 49% (2003); highest federal vote: 34% (1980)


Lots of different reasons for this, of course, but two main ones come to mind:

Firstly, and probably most importantly, the provincial parties are much more moderate than the federal (or Ontario) NDP is. Rachel Notley's recent support for pipelines is one example, as is Roy Romanow's heavy deficit-cutting in the 1990s and Gary Doer's government in the 2000s. The BC party is a bit more left-leaning than the ones on the Prairies, but still less than the federal party is.

Secondly, ever since Diefenbaker there's been a strong strain of Prairie populism in the Tories that's allowed them to do very well out West; one started to see, especially in Saskatchewan, many people who voted CCF/NDP provincially & PC federally. Since the reunification of the conservative parties in 2003, this appeal has been even stronger, allowing the Tories to have their two best (peacetime) Prairie results (62% & 64%) in recent years (2011 & 2019) - even better than under the Diefenbaker & Mulroney sweeps.


(One curious instance of provincial & federal trends briefly paralleling and then diverging is Winnipeg: in 1988, the provincial NDP government was heavily defeated and fell to third, while the Liberals took a strong second and dominated the capital. The federal election eight months later saw a similar change, as the Liberals jumped to second place in the province and did extremely well in Winnipeg. However, while at the provincial level the Liberals quickly fell back again and haven't elected more than three MLAs in a general election for the last quarter-century, at the federal level they've remained strong in Winnipeg, generally placing first or second in most ridings there.)
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King of Kensington
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« Reply #2098 on: November 02, 2019, 08:42:03 pm »

The NDP is the main center-left party in provincial politics in Western Canada.
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DistingFlyer
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« Reply #2099 on: November 02, 2019, 08:53:20 pm »
« Edited: November 02, 2019, 09:04:04 pm by DistingFlyer »

Nunavut is still the lone holdout for official counts; the recounts are still ongoing too.

While we wait, here are the best individual results (in terms of percentage majority) for the two big parties since 1896:

Liberals
1896 - Wilfrid Laurier wins Quebec East by 2191 (52.0%)
1900 - Wilfrid Laurier wins Quebec East by 2772 (62.7%)
1904 - Charles Fitzpatrick wins Quebec County by 2174 (80.0%)
1908 - Henri Severin Beland wins Beauce by 3899 (91.4%)
1911 - Joseph Demers wins St. Johns & Iberville by 1909 (56.7%)
1917 - Charles Fournier wins Bellechasse by 3692 (96.1%)
1921 - Joseph Demers wins St. Johns Iberville by 6158 (87.0%)
1925 - Paul Mercier wins St. Henri by 8990 (61.3%)
1926 - Edouard-Charles St.-Pere wins Hochelaga by 13809 (71.3%)
1930 - Sam Jacobs wins Cartier by 6303 (52.6%)
1935 - Edouard Lacroix wins Beauce by 13367 (77.9%)
1940 - Peter Bercovitch wins Cartier by 15837 (77.1%)
1945 - Jean-Francois Pouliot wins Temiscouata by 8418 (63.1%)
1949 - Ches Carter wins Burin Burgeo by 11537 (84.6%)
1953 - Alcide Cote wins Saint-Jean Iberville Napierville by 14087 (76.9%)
1957 - Jack Pickersgill wins Bonavista Twillingate by 7811 (74.4%)
1958 - Jack Pickersgill wins Bonavista Twillingate by 9347 (51.9%)
1962 - Ches Carter wins Burin Burgeo by 9370 (59.7%)
1963 - Ches Carter wins Burin Burgeo by 9728 (66.6%)
1965 - Ches Carter wins Burin Burgeo by 7990 (52.7%)
1968 - Pierre Trudeau wins Mount Royal by 35437 (86.0%)
1972 - Pierre Trudeau wins Mount Royal by 32429 (70.9%)
1974 - Don Jamieson wins Burin Burgeo by 11276 (68.3%)
1979 - Pierre Trudeau wins Mount Royal by 39542 (78.0%)
1980 - Monique Begin wins Saint-Leonard Anjou by 38487 (73.9%)
1984 - Charles Caccia wins Davenport by 7700 (31.2%)
1988 - Don Boudria wins Glengarry Prescott Russell by 25763 (51.7%)
1993 - Sheila Finestone wins Mount Royal by 36274 (76.0%)
1997 - Sergio Marchi wins York West by 18401 (63.7%)
2000 - Irwin Cotler wins Mount Royal by 30629 (75.1%)
2004 - Irwin Cotler wins Mount Royal by 25399 (67.0%)
2006 - Irwin Cotler wins Mount Royal by 17627 (47.7%)
2008 - Scott Simms wins Bonavista Gander Grand Falls Windsor by 15735 (55.0%)
2011 - Gerry Byrne wins Humber St. Barbe Baie Verte by 9560 (31.9%)
2015 - Judy Foote wins Bonavista Burin Trinity by 25170 (71.7%)
2019 - Patricia Lattanzio wins Saint-Leonard Saint-Michel by 22443 (49.4%)


Conservatives
1896 - Clarke Wallace wins York West by 4068 (60.6%)
1900 - Edward Kidd wins Carleton by 727 (29.1%)
1904 - John Barr wins Dufferin by 1286 (44.1%)
1908 - John Barr wins Dufferin by 1443 (47.5%)
1911 - William Maclean wins York South by 5293 (58.2%)
1917 - Howard Whidden wins Brandon by 10136 (79.2%)
1921 - Joseph Harris wins York East by 6538 (35.4%)
1925 - Charles Bell wins Hamilton West by 11224 (67.9%)
1926 - Joseph Harris wins Toronto Scarborough by 11382 (61.5%)
1930 - Robert White wins Mount Royal by 13449 (50.9%)
1935 - Robert White wins St. Antoine Westmount by 5683 (25.9%)
1940 - Denton Massey wins Greenwood by 7313 (28.6%)
1945 - Arthur Ross wins Souris by 3537 (33.2%)
1949 - Clair Casselman wins Grenville Dundas by 3348 (23.8%)
1953 - William Blair wins Lanark by 4713 (29.8%)
1957 - Howard Green wins Vancouver Quadra by 16296 (48.0%)
1958 - Douglas Harkness wins Calgary North by 25446 (59.2%)
1962 - John Diefenbaker wins Prince Albert by 14103 (54.6%)
1963 - John Diefenbaker wins Prince Albert by 14451 (57.9%)
1965 - Frank Fane wins Vegreville by 10012 (57.4%)
1968 - Jack Horner wins Crowfoot by 11725 (52.2%)
1972 - Jack Horner wins Crowfoot by 16076 (65.1%)
1974 - Jack Horner wins Crowfoot by 14571 (61.0%)
1979 - Don Mazankowski wins Vegreville by 22600 (67.5%)
1980 - Don Mazankowski wins Vegreville by 21309 (62.1%)
1984 - Don Mazankowski wins Vegreville by 28687 (70.8%)
1988 - Brian Mulroney wins Charlevoix by 27736 (65.8%)
1993 - Jean Charest wins Sherbrooke by 8210 (14.4%)
; Bob Mills wins Red Deer by 23870 (48.5%)
1997 - Elsie Wayne wins Saint John by 16615 (47.2%); Jack Ramsay wins Crowfoot by 23910 (55.5%)
2000 - Norm Doyle wins St. John's East by 9771 (22.0%); Monte Solberg wins Medicine Hat by 26742 (63.8%)
2004 - Kevin Sorenson wins Crowfoot by 34034 (72.5%)
2006 - Kevin Sorenson wins Crowfoot by 39335 (75.2%)
2008 - Kevin Sorenson wins Crowfoot by 35559 (74.1%)
2011 - Kevin Sorenson wins Crowfoot by 39310 (74.8%)
2015 - Kevin Sorenson wins Battle River Crowfoot by 42047 (71.5%)
2019 - Damien Kurek wins Battle River Crowfoot by 50124 (80.4%)


Quebec was the Liberal fortress from 1896, almost single-handedly putting native son Wilfrid Laurier in office and providing some huge personal majorities for Grit MPs. Once Newfoundland joined Canada a half-century later, the rural part of the province also supplied some very big wins as well. Even with Liberal weakening in rural Quebec, Montreal has remained very strong, and Toronto has gradually become so in the last few decades.

As for the Tories, Macdonald's National Policy turned Ontario from an even-to-Liberal province in the early days to a Conservative bastion for many decades, keeping the Liberals in a minority there for nearly sixty years (1878 to 1935). Only unusual circumstances (the war issue in 1917 & a populist Prairie leader in 1945) prevented the safest Tory riding from being in Ontario (or wealthy Anglo areas of Montreal - 1930 & 1935). Another Prairie populist, Diefenbaker, had a more lasting effect, as the best Conservative results since then have been in that part of the country. Only the intervention of the Reformers, starting in 1988 where they elected nobody but shaved down some Tory majorities (and handed four seats to the NDP) and ending in 2004 with the party merger, saw anything different.
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