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  Canadian Election 2019
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Author Topic: Canadian Election 2019  (Read 120299 times)
Hatman 🍁
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« Reply #2125 on: November 20, 2019, 10:04:00 am »

Kenora swung to the PCs provincially too; it's not really that surprising.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #2126 on: November 20, 2019, 01:04:02 pm »

Kenora swung to the PCs provincially too; it's not really that surprising.

True although I would have not put it as a top pick to flip.  Was it perhaps the carbon tax or do they just swing more in line with what Manitoba does as in Ontario as a whole Tories lost votes.
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Hatman 🍁
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« Reply #2127 on: November 20, 2019, 02:25:55 pm »

I think proximity to Manitoba must explain it partially. The riding is on Central Time, and I'd imagine is in the Winnipeg media market.
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adma
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« Reply #2128 on: November 20, 2019, 06:26:33 pm »

I think proximity to Manitoba must explain it partially. The riding is on Central Time, and I'd imagine is in the Winnipeg media market.

Yeah, in some ways, Kenora's become the eastern frontier of "Scheer Country".  And more subtly, while the Cons lost some ground in Ontario at large, they in fact gained ground in much of Northern Ontario--and in Kenora, they actually gained less than 5 points over 2015; it's just that it turned out to be a reprise of 2015's three-way race with the Cons on top this time.  (Surely benefiting this time from piggybacking off Greg Rickford provincially.  And maybe even, counterintuitive as it sounds, from Doug Ford's appearance in Kenora--unrelated, perhaps, except in maybe energizing local Conservative forces t/w the finish line.)
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #2129 on: November 21, 2019, 07:23:23 am »

I think proximity to Manitoba must explain it partially. The riding is on Central Time, and I'd imagine is in the Winnipeg media market.

Yeah, in some ways, Kenora's become the eastern frontier of "Scheer Country".  And more subtly, while the Cons lost some ground in Ontario at large, they in fact gained ground in much of Northern Ontario--and in Kenora, they actually gained less than 5 points over 2015; it's just that it turned out to be a reprise of 2015's three-way race with the Cons on top this time.  (Surely benefiting this time from piggybacking off Greg Rickford provincially.  And maybe even, counterintuitive as it sounds, from Doug Ford's appearance in Kenora--unrelated, perhaps, except in maybe energizing local Conservative forces t/w the finish line.)

Yes. If the Tories treaded water in Ontario but lost ground in prosperous suburbs, they needed to make up the ground somewhere. Northern Ontario is a decent fit for a more downscale right.
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #2130 on: November 21, 2019, 11:02:20 am »

Northern Ontario is very "populist" or "WWC". One of my fears about having Singh as leader was that he would not appeal at all to Northerners. And on the same note, Trudeau's brand of Liberalism doesn't play well in the North either. Nonetheless, both parties held their own in terms of keeping their seats (Kenora notwithstanding), but did tread water to the Tories in most ridings. The Tories don't have much history winning seats in the North, so probably have little ground game.  I'm sure a better campaign in the Soo could've flipped it though.
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DL
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« Reply #2131 on: November 21, 2019, 12:09:40 pm »

I think proximity to Manitoba must explain it partially. The riding is on Central Time, and I'd imagine is in the Winnipeg media market.

The other unspoken issue is race. The NDP almost won Kenora in 2015 running former Ontario leader Howard Hampton. But this time the NDP ran First Nation chief Turtle - and while he likely did very well on a lot of FN reserves - there is a large chunk of WWC voters in northern Ontario who will vote for white NDP candidate but will go Tory if the NDP nominates an "Injun" (sic.)
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #2132 on: November 21, 2019, 01:04:58 pm »

Northern Ontario is very "populist" or "WWC". One of my fears about having Singh as leader was that he would not appeal at all to Northerners. And on the same note, Trudeau's brand of Liberalism doesn't play well in the North either. Nonetheless, both parties held their own in terms of keeping their seats (Kenora notwithstanding), but did tread water to the Tories in most ridings. The Tories don't have much history winning seats in the North, so probably have little ground game.  I'm sure a better campaign in the Soo could've flipped it though.

What is it about the Soo that causes the Tories do so much better there than other Northern ON towns?
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mileslunn
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« Reply #2133 on: November 21, 2019, 02:06:54 pm »

Northern Ontario is very "populist" or "WWC". One of my fears about having Singh as leader was that he would not appeal at all to Northerners. And on the same note, Trudeau's brand of Liberalism doesn't play well in the North either. Nonetheless, both parties held their own in terms of keeping their seats (Kenora notwithstanding), but did tread water to the Tories in most ridings. The Tories don't have much history winning seats in the North, so probably have little ground game.  I'm sure a better campaign in the Soo could've flipped it though.

What is it about the Soo that causes the Tories do so much better there than other Northern ON towns?

If you look at just polls and not ridings, generally Tories do well in areas near the southern edge of Northern Ontario, but once you get deeper north they do poorly.
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Hatman 🍁
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« Reply #2134 on: November 21, 2019, 02:19:01 pm »

I think proximity to Manitoba must explain it partially. The riding is on Central Time, and I'd imagine is in the Winnipeg media market.

The other unspoken issue is race. The NDP almost won Kenora in 2015 running former Ontario leader Howard Hampton. But this time the NDP ran First Nation chief Turtle - and while he likely did very well on a lot of FN reserves - there is a large chunk of WWC voters in northern Ontario who will vote for white NDP candidate but will go Tory if the NDP nominates an "Injun" (sic.)

Well, I was alluding to that with Singh being leader, but yes - racism against Indigenous people is far worse up north than any other group.

Northern Ontario is very "populist" or "WWC". One of my fears about having Singh as leader was that he would not appeal at all to Northerners. And on the same note, Trudeau's brand of Liberalism doesn't play well in the North either. Nonetheless, both parties held their own in terms of keeping their seats (Kenora notwithstanding), but did tread water to the Tories in most ridings. The Tories don't have much history winning seats in the North, so probably have little ground game.  I'm sure a better campaign in the Soo could've flipped it though.

What is it about the Soo that causes the Tories do so much better there than other Northern ON towns?

I wonder if it has to do with with the city's right wing populist streak? There's a whole Wikipedia article dedicated to the controversy over making English the city's only official language in 1990: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sault_Ste._Marie_language_resolution (the same year, the CoR got 21% of the vote in the provincial election there)

Not many Francophones live there any more. I wonder why...
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King of Kensington
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« Reply #2135 on: November 21, 2019, 05:38:25 pm »
« Edited: November 21, 2019, 05:46:33 pm by King of Kensington »

Sault Ste. Marie seems like the kind of place that would have had a big Obama to Trump swing if it were in the US (WWC and heavily Italian).
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King of Kensington
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« Reply #2136 on: November 21, 2019, 05:42:45 pm »

The other unspoken issue is race. The NDP almost won Kenora in 2015 running former Ontario leader Howard Hampton. But this time the NDP ran First Nation chief Turtle - and while he likely did very well on a lot of FN reserves - there is a large chunk of WWC voters in northern Ontario who will vote for white NDP candidate but will go Tory if the NDP nominates an "Injun" (sic.)

Tania Cameron, who has led FN GOTV efforts in the last two elections, also did quite poorly in Kenora in 2011.
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adma
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« Reply #2137 on: November 21, 2019, 07:38:11 pm »

The other unspoken issue is race. The NDP almost won Kenora in 2015 running former Ontario leader Howard Hampton. But this time the NDP ran First Nation chief Turtle - and while he likely did very well on a lot of FN reserves - there is a large chunk of WWC voters in northern Ontario who will vote for white NDP candidate but will go Tory if the NDP nominates an "Injun" (sic.)

Tania Cameron, who has led FN GOTV efforts in the last two elections, also did quite poorly in Kenora in 2011.

Though Turtle actually didn't lose that much ground over the higher-profile Hampton, either--in fact,  Trudeau stumbling over the FN issue probably worked on Turtle's behalf.  So it was really a matter of Bob Nault leaking votes that "should have been" his (on incumbent-advantage and Hampton-absence grounds) in both directions.
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adma
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« Reply #2138 on: November 21, 2019, 07:57:42 pm »

Quote from: Hatman  link=topic=305434.msg7063040#msg7063040 date=1574352140 uid=889

What is it about the Soo that causes the Tories do so much better there than other Northern ON towns?

I wonder if it has to do with with the city's right wing populist streak? There's a whole Wikipedia article dedicated to the controversy over making English the city's only official language in 1990: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sault_Ste._Marie_language_resolution (the same year, the CoR got 21% of the vote in the provincial election there)

Not many Francophones live there any more. I wonder why...


Actually, said streak was dormant for a good generation after that controversy--in fact, the Liberals had tended to be the parking lot for "anti-NDP" votes in the Soo through much of that time; however, this was one of 2004's two NDP pickups in N Ontario (the other being Charlie Angus's seat), and by 2008 the federal Soo Libs were so depleted that the hitherto also-ran Cons took clever advantage of the "anti-NDP" void, nearly upsetting them that year and finally doing so in 2011.  So, re the Soo's present Con-friendly profile, blame that 2008-and-then-2011 one-two--and provincially, blame the 2017 byelection...
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The Ghost of Tammany Hall
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« Reply #2139 on: January 01, 2020, 09:20:02 am »

Does anyone know what the tipping point seat was this election?
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MaxQue
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« Reply #2140 on: January 01, 2020, 10:15:40 am »

Does anyone know what the tipping point seat was this election?

The seat who would put the Liberals at 170 is Beauport-Limoilou (eastern Québec City suburbs) which was actually a Bloc gain over Conservatives, with Liberals in 3rd (Bloc 30, Con 26, Lib 26), with 4.2% needed

The tipping point for the largest party (making Con 142, Lab 141) is Newmarket-Aurora (northern Toronto suburbs). Lib 43, Con 38, 5.3% neededé Ironically, it was already the tipping point for Liberals going under 170 last time.

The seat putting Conservatives at 170 is Hamilton Mountain (southern Hamilton). It's actually quite unlikely, it's an NDP stronghold where the last Conservative win was in 1979 and where Conservatives are 3rd. NDP 36, Lib 30, Con 25, 10.7% needed.
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trebor204
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« Reply #2141 on: January 31, 2020, 11:20:39 pm »

CBC Manitoba got the polling results for Manitoba

It will be a while (could be within a few weeks) before Election Canada releases them to the public.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/manitoba/poll-map-federal-election-manitoba-1.5446528

The good news is the Elections Canada has posted the Polling Shapefiles (along with advance polling boundaries)  on the GeoGratis Website.
There is also a KMZ that can be used with Google Earth.


http://ftp.geogratis.gc.ca/pub/elections_elections/Electoral-districts_Circonscription-electorale/Elections_Canada_2019/

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Krago
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« Reply #2142 on: February 03, 2020, 02:54:23 pm »

Thanks for the link.  Now I'm ready for some numbers!

One quibble: Prior to 2015, Elections Canada represented apartment/condo polls with a point instead of a polygon.  I was able to use buffering to create circles to represent each building.  For the past two elections, Elections Canada has represented these polls with a tiny polygon on the street in front of the building.  It was a pain to create all those (red) circles, but I like the result much better than those tiny (blue) boxes.

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adma
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« Reply #2143 on: February 09, 2020, 10:14:20 pm »

Because I'm too lazy/distracted at the moment, does anyone want to report on advance/special vs final tallies (i.e. where the leading party was different from the final result)?
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Poirot
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« Reply #2144 on: February 12, 2020, 10:45:51 pm »

Because I'm too lazy/distracted at the moment, does anyone want to report on advance/special vs final tallies (i.e. where the leading party was different from the final result)?

Eric Grenier did a comparison of advance voting numbers and election day numbers.
https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/grenier-advance-polls-1.5399398

Advance voting was about 27% of all ballots.
Conservative party got 36,3% (leading in 133 seats)
Liberal party 33% (leading in 149 seats)
New Democrats 13,3% (19 seats)
Bloc Québécois 8,6% (33 seats)
Green party 6,6% (3 seats)
People's party 1,5%
Jody Wilson-Raybould was ahead in Vancouver Granville.

Result of only the ballots cast on election day:
Conservative 33,6% (ahead in 118 seats)
Liberal 33,2% (ahead in 155 seats)
NDP 17% (ahead in 27 seats)
Bloc 7,4% (ahead in 34 seats)
Green 6,4% (ahead in 3 seats)
People 1,6%

The CPC took less of the vote on election day than they did in the advance polls in every region of the country except Atlantic Canada.

He lists ridings where the difference between the two results change the outcome.
Quote
There were a dozen ridings where the Conservatives' performance on election day cost them the seat — ridings where their lead in the advance poll was not wide enough to compensate for poorer results on Oct. 21.

This boosted both the Liberals and the New Democrats. Largely due to the Conservatives falling back on election day, the Liberals picked up King–Vaughan, Kitchener–Conestoga and Richmond Hill in Ontario, Winnipeg South in Manitoba, Coquitlam–Port Coquitlam in British Columbia and Yukon in the North.

The NDP's election day boost pushed them ahead of the Conservatives in Elmwood–Transcona in Manitoba and Skeena–Bulkley Valley, South Okanagan–West Kootenay and North Island–Powell River in British Columbia. The NDP also was able to beat the Liberals in Windsor West in Ontario and the Greens in Victoria, B.C. on election day.

While the Greens lost Victoria, they made up for it with a gain in Fredericton, where the Conservatives had been leading after the advance polls. The Bloc also took Beauport–Limoilou away from the Conservatives on election day.

But the Liberals bolstered their own minority with wins in Quebec on Oct. 21. The party had been trailing the Bloc in Hochelaga, Longueuil–Charles-LeMoyne and Québec after the advance poll. They pulled out a win in these three ridings on election day (though the opposite happened in Shefford, where the Bloc stole a riding where the Liberals led in the advance poll). They also came from behind in the Ontario riding of Davenport, where the NDP had been ahead after Thanksgiving's voting.

In some ridings the winner of the advance poll ballots had a big enough lead to win the election even though it came second on election day ballots.
Quote
n a few ridings, meanwhile, the advance poll made the difference. In the Quebec riding of Chicoutimi–Le Fjord, the Ontario riding of Kenora and the B.C. riding of Port Moody–Coquitlam, the Conservatives built up enough of a lead in the advance poll to stay ahead despite finishing second on election day itself.

Meanwhile, their (Liberals) advance poll results allowed them to prevail in Gaspésie–Îles-de-la-Madeleine in Quebec — despite losing election day itself to the Bloc — and Windsor–Tecumseh in Ontario, where the NDP took more of the vote on election day.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #2145 on: February 12, 2020, 11:12:13 pm »

Because I'm too lazy/distracted at the moment, does anyone want to report on advance/special vs final tallies (i.e. where the leading party was different from the final result)?

Eric Grenier did a comparison of advance voting numbers and election day numbers.
https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/grenier-advance-polls-1.5399398

Advance voting was about 27% of all ballots.
Conservative party got 36,3% (leading in 133 seats)
Liberal party 33% (leading in 149 seats)
New Democrats 13,3% (19 seats)
Bloc Québécois 8,6% (33 seats)
Green party 6,6% (3 seats)
People's party 1,5%
Jody Wilson-Raybould was ahead in Vancouver Granville.

Result of only the ballots cast on election day:
Conservative 33,6% (ahead in 118 seats)
Liberal 33,2% (ahead in 155 seats)
NDP 17% (ahead in 27 seats)
Bloc 7,4% (ahead in 34 seats)
Green 6,4% (ahead in 3 seats)
People 1,6%

The CPC took less of the vote on election day than they did in the advance polls in every region of the country except Atlantic Canada.

He lists ridings where the difference between the two results change the outcome.
Quote
There were a dozen ridings where the Conservatives' performance on election day cost them the seat — ridings where their lead in the advance poll was not wide enough to compensate for poorer results on Oct. 21.

This boosted both the Liberals and the New Democrats. Largely due to the Conservatives falling back on election day, the Liberals picked up King–Vaughan, Kitchener–Conestoga and Richmond Hill in Ontario, Winnipeg South in Manitoba, Coquitlam–Port Coquitlam in British Columbia and Yukon in the North.

The NDP's election day boost pushed them ahead of the Conservatives in Elmwood–Transcona in Manitoba and Skeena–Bulkley Valley, South Okanagan–West Kootenay and North Island–Powell River in British Columbia. The NDP also was able to beat the Liberals in Windsor West in Ontario and the Greens in Victoria, B.C. on election day.

While the Greens lost Victoria, they made up for it with a gain in Fredericton, where the Conservatives had been leading after the advance polls. The Bloc also took Beauport–Limoilou away from the Conservatives on election day.

But the Liberals bolstered their own minority with wins in Quebec on Oct. 21. The party had been trailing the Bloc in Hochelaga, Longueuil–Charles-LeMoyne and Québec after the advance poll. They pulled out a win in these three ridings on election day (though the opposite happened in Shefford, where the Bloc stole a riding where the Liberals led in the advance poll). They also came from behind in the Ontario riding of Davenport, where the NDP had been ahead after Thanksgiving's voting.

In some ridings the winner of the advance poll ballots had a big enough lead to win the election even though it came second on election day ballots.
Quote
n a few ridings, meanwhile, the advance poll made the difference. In the Quebec riding of Chicoutimi–Le Fjord, the Ontario riding of Kenora and the B.C. riding of Port Moody–Coquitlam, the Conservatives built up enough of a lead in the advance poll to stay ahead despite finishing second on election day itself.

Meanwhile, their (Liberals) advance poll results allowed them to prevail in Gaspésie–Îles-de-la-Madeleine in Quebec — despite losing election day itself to the Bloc — and Windsor–Tecumseh in Ontario, where the NDP took more of the vote on election day.

I believe every election Tories have done better in advanced polls than election day.  They have the most motivated base so they are good at getting their supporters out early.  Usually those who are certain who they will vote for are more likely to vote in advanced polls than those on the fence and Tories have the highest floor but lower ceiling than Liberals.  Likewise all parties tend to try to get supporters our for advanced voting so they have those votes locked in and can focus on undecided as well as ensure if something happens that prevents those people from voting they have those votes. 
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adma
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« Reply #2146 on: February 13, 2020, 06:29:28 am »

I believe every election Tories have done better in advanced polls than election day.  They have the most motivated base so they are good at getting their supporters out early.  Usually those who are certain who they will vote for are more likely to vote in advanced polls than those on the fence and Tories have the highest floor but lower ceiling than Liberals.  Likewise all parties tend to try to get supporters our for advanced voting so they have those votes locked in and can focus on undecided as well as ensure if something happens that prevents those people from voting they have those votes. 

Though there are differences--in a riding like Davenport, it's the *NDP* with the most motivated base.

And at times, advance-polling demographics make a difference--for example, in places like Kenora and Skeena-Bulkley Valley, FN and related groups tend to be underrepresented...
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Hatman 🍁
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« Reply #2147 on: February 13, 2020, 11:22:10 am »

Surprised about Davenport, actually. Our polling had the Liberals with a decent lead early on in the campaign, with the NDP closing the gap later on.
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Krago
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« Reply #2148 on: February 13, 2020, 12:29:03 pm »

Where are you good folks getting your 2019 poll-by-poll results?  I can't find anything on the Elections Canada website.
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Hatman 🍁
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« Reply #2149 on: February 13, 2020, 03:21:48 pm »

Where are you good folks getting your 2019 poll-by-poll results?  I can't find anything on the Elections Canada website.

http://www.election-atlas.ca/fed/ has results. He was sent them from someone (presumably a contact at Elections Canada)
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