Canadian Election 2019 (user search)
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Author Topic: Canadian Election 2019  (Read 189183 times)
King of Kensington
Junior Chimp
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Posts: 5,068


« on: April 12, 2019, 03:08:34 PM »

Canadian Green supports kinda resembles that of the Lib Dems in the UK.
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King of Kensington
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,068


« Reply #1 on: April 12, 2019, 03:20:06 PM »

In Toronto, I only have a sense what's going on for the NDP in four ridings.

Toronto-Danforth:  Documentary filmmaker Min Sook Lee looks like she has it as her strongest opponent has dropped out.

Davenport:  Former MP Andrew Cash was acclaimed in December.  He is pretty much the perfect fit for the riding.

Parkdale-High Park:  Mayoral candidate and human rights lawyer Saron Gebresellassi and Foodshare executive director Paul Taylor are both seeking the nomination.

York South-Weston:  Yafet Tewelde seems to be the only one running and he has the backing of former MP Mike Sullivan.

The first three are very low hanging fruit, YSW is a "next tier" riding held by Immigration Minister Ahmed Hussen.  No challengers yet for Bill Morneau (Toronto Centre) and Chrystia Freeland (University-Rosedale), also in the next tier.
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King of Kensington
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,068


« Reply #2 on: April 16, 2019, 12:47:15 PM »

In the Toronto riding of Humber River-Black Creek, I am hearing that veteran city councillor Maria Augimeri and former TDSB trustee and 2018 council candidate Tiffany Ford are interested in the NDP nomination. 
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King of Kensington
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,068


« Reply #3 on: April 30, 2019, 08:45:58 PM »

I am hearing a third candidate plans to enter the Parkdale-High Park NDP nomination race:  pundit Tom Parkin.
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King of Kensington
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,068


« Reply #4 on: May 01, 2019, 08:38:15 AM »

Because 1) Parkin lives in High Park and 2) wants the easiest ride to Parliament.  This is the most coveted nomination in the city.

I wouldn't say he's a bigger name than Saron Gebresellassi.  I'm guessing far fewer Torontonians have heard of him.  But he's a big deal to a several hundred existing members in PHP, presumably.
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King of Kensington
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,068


« Reply #5 on: May 01, 2019, 08:39:22 AM »

Tommy, are you confusing Tom Parkin with Steve Paikin of TVO?
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King of Kensington
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,068


« Reply #6 on: May 01, 2019, 12:24:03 PM »

Agree with the assessment of Morneau.  I think of the MPs in the three downtown ridings he has the least of a personal brand.
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King of Kensington
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,068


« Reply #7 on: May 02, 2019, 09:33:51 AM »

While obviously benefiting from the Liberal collapse and NDP rise, Suze Morrison is pretty impressive.  She was the least known of the candidates going into the TC NDP nomination but signed up a lot of people, beating out a candidate who got all these big endorsements (Olivia Chow, Mike Layton, Peter Tabuns etc.) and ran the "inevitable frontrunner" strategy but just didn't get the votes of people in the riding.
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King of Kensington
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,068


« Reply #8 on: May 02, 2019, 01:31:45 PM »

Demographically Toronto Centre should be the best NDP seat of the three downtown ridings. It doesn’t have Rosedale anymore. It doesn’t have all that many high end condos like Spadina Fort York. It has a lot of downscale inner city housing and it votes very left municipally. Now that it has an NDP MPP provincially maybe at some point the dam will break federally

For all the talk of Toronto being the most socioeconomically "inverted" city in North America (ie rich core), there's a lot more "downscale inner city housing" so close to the CBD compared to say Manhattan or Chicago.  TC actually has the highest poverty rate of any riding in Toronto, though there are of course ridings that are more thoroughly low income working class that have lower average incomes (i.e. York South-Weston, Humber, Scarborough-Guildwood and so on).

University-Rosedale and Spadina-Fort York are for the most part affluent with a few pockets of poverty.
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King of Kensington
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,068


« Reply #9 on: May 02, 2019, 07:18:37 PM »

And oftentime, it's not about income so much as lifestyle-sorting; that is, areas like Trinity-Bellwoods may be trending upward, but those who are opting into such neighbourhoods also tend to opt into the leftish politics thereof, however "promiscuous" their leftism may be.

Same reason why New York, London, Paris have trended leftward even as they've gentrified out of "affordability".

That "lifestyle sorting" was quite evident in the last provincial election.  Not only did all 8 inner Toronto ridings go NDP, but the Conservative vote share in the least "progressive" inner TO riding (St. Paul's) was lower than every single outer TO riding.
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King of Kensington
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,068


« Reply #10 on: May 03, 2019, 02:18:28 PM »

TC was the weakest of the three downtown ridings for the federal Conservatives in 2015 as well.

In addition to the large low income population and social housing component, there's also a large LGBT community that is very anti-Conservative for obvious reasons.
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King of Kensington
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,068


« Reply #11 on: May 05, 2019, 07:42:42 PM »

Actually I think that while it’s a long shot the NDP may have more of a chance in Humber Valley Black Creek than in some of the downtown ridings. It’s very poor, went NDP provincially, no name Liberal incumbent and a potential strong NDP candidate

Maria Augimeri?  Tiffany Ford?
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King of Kensington
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,068


« Reply #12 on: May 05, 2019, 10:42:06 PM »

NDP vote share in 2015 federal and 2018 provincial:

Beaches-East York  30.82% 48.21%
Davenport  41.36%  60.27%
Parkdale-High Park  40.24%  59.41%
Scarborough Southwest  23.73%  45.66%
Spadina-Fort York  27.28%  49.62%
Toronto Centre  26.61%  53.66%
Toronto-Danforth  40.17%  64.25%
University-Rosedale  28.59%  49.66%
York South-Weston  30.4%  36.07%
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King of Kensington
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,068


« Reply #13 on: May 06, 2019, 10:24:56 AM »

In the inner city ridings, looks like Liberal/NDP switchers represent about 20% of the electorate. 
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King of Kensington
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,068


« Reply #14 on: May 24, 2019, 05:59:01 PM »

Is Morneau really two tiers "safer" than Hussen?
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King of Kensington
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,068


« Reply #15 on: May 27, 2019, 12:38:20 PM »

JWR can win as an independent with disaffected Liberals, no Green candidate and a lot of NDP voters.

Stouffville is almost certainly going Tory though.  The Conservatives have a base of 40%, the NDP and Greens are nonfactors and any split in the Liberal vote means the Cons win.
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King of Kensington
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,068


« Reply #16 on: May 27, 2019, 12:43:05 PM »

Interestingly two York Region MPs elected under the Liberal banner in 2015 are now running against the party - one as an independent (Jane Philpott) and Leona Alleslev (who crossed the floor to the Conservatives). 
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King of Kensington
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,068


« Reply #17 on: May 27, 2019, 12:50:29 PM »

Relative to the GTA, York Region is trending Conservative.  That was clear in the most recent federal and provinical elections.
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King of Kensington
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,068


« Reply #18 on: May 31, 2019, 02:56:29 PM »

NDP comes out for a "Green New Deal" type policy:

https://www.thestar.com/politics/federal/2019/05/31/ndp-set-to-unveil-15-billion-climate-plan-that-would-slash-greenhouse-gas-emissions.html?fbclid=IwAR27XbCuk-CvvsXOerxWQmciNWu5AwQlfM6Pz5MW6_94XHGm5hQjA9e43j8


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King of Kensington
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,068


« Reply #19 on: June 02, 2019, 09:24:55 AM »

Good numbers for the NDP in Ontario, LOL at the Green numbers for MB/SK.

https://abacusdata.ca/liberals-and-conservatives-neck-and-neck-as-greens-rise-to-12
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King of Kensington
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,068


« Reply #20 on: June 02, 2019, 01:44:43 PM »

I wonder how much the age flattening of the Green vote and younger pull of the NDP is due to the Greens being a very "white" party (millennials are much more diverse than Boomers+).
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King of Kensington
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,068


« Reply #21 on: June 10, 2019, 03:57:32 PM »

What we are seeing in Canada is that minorities as a whole (non-white european, non-indigenous/first nations) are swing voters. This is visible in areas like the Vancouver suburbs and Toronto's 905. They gave Harper is majority eventually in 2011, and Trudeau his in 2015.
I don't believe "minorities" are a solid voting block either really, I would say Urban minorities and suburban minorities vote somewhat differently too.
someone who is more knowledgeable on this could comment but I believe in BC the East Asian community (Chinese, Japanese, etc) were far more BC Liberal (right-wing) while the South Asian community (sikh's, Indian's, etc) were more NDP leaning.

There's definitely been a big shift to the Conservatives among Chinese Canadians.  South Asians are less likely to vote Conservative than the general population.
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King of Kensington
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,068


« Reply #22 on: June 17, 2019, 03:24:40 PM »

I know it's not exactly "on topic" but still posting

https://toronto.citynews.ca/video/2019/06/17/premier-doug-ford-booed-by-crowd-at-raptors-victory-parade/
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King of Kensington
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,068


« Reply #23 on: September 02, 2019, 06:18:34 PM »

On the NDP's "save the furniture" campaign:

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/article-low-budget-high-stakes-ndp-hopes-singhs-campaign-shift-isnt-too/
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King of Kensington
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,068


« Reply #24 on: September 02, 2019, 11:30:14 PM »

NDP could be facing a 1993-type catastrophe.  I guess Elizabeth May is the more successful Mel Hurtig in this scenario.
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