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  Talk Elections
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  2020 CDU Leadership Contest
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Author Topic: 2020 CDU Leadership Contest  (Read 4050 times)
Old Europe
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« Reply #50 on: February 25, 2020, 09:00:35 am »

My prediction on the outcome of the leadership contest:

We're essentially going to see a rerun of 2018 with Laschet as the new AKK, Merz as Merz, and Röttgen in the role of Spahn (although Röttgen is one of the moderates and not from the conservative wing). In 2018, AKK won 45% on the first ballot, Merz 39%, and Spahn 16%. The second ballot ended with 52% for AKK and 48% for Merz.

Since this morning, Laschet is running as the candidate of a liberal-conservative "unity" ticket. The Spahn endorsement is designed to show that both men are willing and able to cooperate "for the good of the party", while Merz and Röttgen can easily be painted as being on an ego trip now (earlier today I read a report that Merz was offered a cabinet position yesterday in an effort to integrate him in a "team solution" along with Spahn, but that he turned them down.)

Laschet/Spahn are also representing the preferred solution of the party establishment and the CDU is not the really the kind of political party where you're rebelling against the establishment, particularly your own establishment. Leading figures like CDU/CSU Bundestag caucus leader Ralph Brinkhaus and CSU chairman Markus Söder had already indicated that they're not really a big fan of Merz due to his perceived egocentrism.

Granted, the CDU is in a very unusual and critical situation right now, but I don't believe that this is enough to push them over the brink and go haywire. On the contrary, perhaps many will think that it is time to stick together more than ever, and Laschet/Spahn is the "sticking together" solution.
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President Johnson
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« Reply #51 on: February 25, 2020, 02:49:32 pm »

I think Laschet has the edge in this race because he de facto controls the NRW delegation and has the broadest support among high ranking CDU officials, especially in the West (like Daniel Günther). If this was a referendum among CDU members, Merz would probably win, though.

Personally I prefer Laschet because he's a moderate pragmatist, but Merz might be better for the political landscape since it draw a clearer distinction between SPD/Greens and the Union.
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Old Europe
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« Reply #52 on: February 25, 2020, 06:14:49 pm »

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Old Europe
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« Reply #53 on: March 07, 2020, 05:20:41 am »
« Edited: March 07, 2020, 05:26:10 am by Trump/Blagojevich 2020 »

Nothing happening here anymore at the moment, mostly for "other reasons".

Jens Spahn is the federal minister of health, Armin Laschet is the minister-president of North Rhine-Westphalia. Yesterday, Spahn urged the population to abstain from "unnecessary travels" to North Rhine-Westphalia. Nobody really cares what Friedrich Merz does at the moment, because he doesn't hold a political office.

Somewhat surprisingly, nobody has so far brought up the possibility of cancelling the CDU convention in late April. Maybe because these things are generally decided pretty short-notice, one or at best two weeks in advance. I guess the possibility does exist when Spahn urges people not to travel to NRW anymore and a lot of CDU politicians from NRW would travel to Berlin for the party convention....
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brucejoel99
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« Reply #54 on: March 07, 2020, 05:31:51 am »

Nothing happening here anymore at the moment, mostly for "other reasons".

Jens Spahn is the federal minister of health, Armin Laschet is the minister-president of North Rhine-Westphalia. Yesterday, Spahn urged the population to abstain from "unnecessary travels" to North Rhine-Westphalia. Nobody really cares what Friedrich Merz does at the moment, because he doesn't hold a political office.

Somewhat surprisingly, nobody has so far brought up the possibility of cancelling the CDU convention in late April. Maybe because these things are generally decided pretty short-notice, one or at best two weeks in advance. I guess the possibility does exist when Spahn urges people not to travel to NRW anymore and a lot of CDU politicians from NRW would travel to Berlin for the party convention....

If delegates can't get to Berlin, are spooked into not attending, &/or are being advised to avoid going entirely, then is remote voting allowed for delegates?
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Old Europe
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« Reply #55 on: March 07, 2020, 05:39:48 am »

Nothing happening here anymore at the moment, mostly for "other reasons".

Jens Spahn is the federal minister of health, Armin Laschet is the minister-president of North Rhine-Westphalia. Yesterday, Spahn urged the population to abstain from "unnecessary travels" to North Rhine-Westphalia. Nobody really cares what Friedrich Merz does at the moment, because he doesn't hold a political office.

Somewhat surprisingly, nobody has so far brought up the possibility of cancelling the CDU convention in late April. Maybe because these things are generally decided pretty short-notice, one or at best two weeks in advance. I guess the possibility does exist when Spahn urges people not to travel to NRW anymore and a lot of CDU politicians from NRW would travel to Berlin for the party convention....

If delegates can't get to Berlin, are spooked into not attending, &/or are being advised to avoid going entirely, then is remote voting allowed for delegates?

This has never been done before. Does the party statutes allow it? At least they don't explicitly forbid it, I guess. However, they'd need to come up with and then organize a procedure for that. Something that may be hard to do if it's decided one or two weeks beforehand. Postponement is more likely IMO.
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Old Europe
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« Reply #56 on: March 10, 2020, 10:08:51 am »
« Edited: March 10, 2020, 10:18:39 am by Trump/Blagojevich 2020 »

Today, at least four German states have banned all public events events with more than 1,000 attendees, and more states will probably follow suit.

Armin Laschet has said that there ought to be no special dispensation for the CDU party convention on April 25, and a decision on cancellation/postponement will be made sometime next month.
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Old Europe
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« Reply #57 on: March 10, 2020, 12:42:07 pm »

AKK has said the CDU is going to make a decision on whether to cancel the convention at the end of this month.
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Old Europe
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« Reply #58 on: March 12, 2020, 06:20:18 am »

Breaking:

It's official and much earlier than originally anticipated... the CDU is postponing its party convention, originally scheduled for April 25, to elect a new chairperson. A new date has yet to be determined.
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Old Europe
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« Reply #59 on: March 17, 2020, 08:49:10 am »

Friedrich Merz has been infected with the coronavirus.
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President Johnson
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« Reply #60 on: March 17, 2020, 02:06:00 pm »

Friedrich Merz has been infected with the coronavirus.

That's sad news. According to recent reports, he's experiencing mild symptoms so far and is in self-quarantine. I wish him a speed and full recovery.
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President Johnson
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« Reply #61 on: March 19, 2020, 03:09:55 pm »

Friedrich Merz has been infected with the coronavirus.

Cem Özedmir, one of the most prominent Greens, is also infected. He announced this today.
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