|           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
April 07, 2020, 07:52:38 am
News:
If you are having trouble logging in due to invalid user name / pass:

Consider resetting your account password, as you may have forgotten it over time if using a password manager.

  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  International Elections (Moderators: Gustaf, Hash, Babette d'Interlaken)
  Canadian Election 2019
« previous next »
Pages: 1 ... 80 81 82 83 84 [85] 86 87 Print
Author Topic: Canadian Election 2019  (Read 119954 times)
politicallefty
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,643
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.52, S: -9.57


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2100 on: November 02, 2019, 08:59:24 pm »

I don't think it's entirely fair to compare federal and provincial results. The Western provinces are basically a 2-party system now, very different from the federal multi-party system. I wasn't just comparing the provincial NDP to federal NDP results. I was looking at the collapse of the Liberals as well. Like I said before, I would've figured the Liberals could've at least held Edmonton Centre.

I suppose it makes some sense that if college-educated women are the primary swing voters that someone like Rachel Notley would be a very strong leader for the NDP (not just for the fact of becoming the first left-of-centre government in Alberta in generations) and as evidenced by keeping her on as leader even in defeat. But to be fair though, isn't almost everyone in Alberta pro-oil and pro-pipeline? I read that the new NDP MP for Edmonton Strathcona is willing to work with the Liberals (although apparently not willing to join the Cabinet) and she's not really in line with the federal NDP on those specific issues.

Also, just curious, but is there any precedent in Canada for a government to have an opposition MP in Cabinet?
Logged
DistingFlyer
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 394
Canada


Political Matrix
E: 0.25, S: -1.74

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2101 on: November 02, 2019, 09:05:41 pm »

I don't think it's entirely fair to compare federal and provincial results. The Western provinces are basically a 2-party system now, very different from the federal multi-party system. I wasn't just comparing the provincial NDP to federal NDP results. I was looking at the collapse of the Liberals as well. Like I said before, I would've figured the Liberals could've at least held Edmonton Centre.

I suppose it makes some sense that if college-educated women are the primary swing voters that someone like Rachel Notley would be a very strong leader for the NDP (not just for the fact of becoming the first left-of-centre government in Alberta in generations) and as evidenced by keeping her on as leader even in defeat. But to be fair though, isn't almost everyone in Alberta pro-oil and pro-pipeline? I read that the new NDP MP for Edmonton Strathcona is willing to work with the Liberals (although apparently not willing to join the Cabinet) and she's not really in line with the federal NDP on those specific issues.

Also, just curious, but is there any precedent in Canada for a government to have an opposition MP in Cabinet?

There's Borden's Unionist Government, where he brought a few pro-conscription Liberals alongside (and saw them subsequently run under the Unionist rather than Liberal banner in 1917), but otherwise no.
Logged
King of Kensington
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,621


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2102 on: November 02, 2019, 09:57:51 pm »

Also, just curious, but is there any precedent in Canada for a government to have an opposition MP in Cabinet?

Pierre Trudeau approached Ed Broadbent of the NDP after the 1980 election about bringing in the NDP into a coalition in order to have more Western representation in the government.
Logged
politicallefty
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,643
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.52, S: -9.57


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2103 on: November 02, 2019, 10:18:32 pm »

I don't know if it's just me, but Justin Trudeau does seem to be echoing his father in a lot ways. However, it does seem like this Liberal minority is more stable than it might appear. I've heard the NDP is beyond broke and can't realistically contest another election anytime soon. I imagine the Liberals and NDP can probably broker some sort of unofficial accord. I also have to wonder if the fact that the last time the NDP brought down a Liberal minority, it resulted in almost 10 years of Conservative rule under Harper. Obviously any political party wants to increase its seat count, but as far as getting its policies closer to enactment, a Liberal minority is probably one of the most preferable results for the NDP (especially considering they can provide a fairly comfortable majority).
Logged
adma
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,563
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2104 on: November 03, 2019, 06:47:14 am »


(One curious instance of provincial & federal trends briefly paralleling and then diverging is Winnipeg: in 1988, the provincial NDP government was heavily defeated and fell to third, while the Liberals took a strong second and dominated the capital. The federal election eight months later saw a similar change, as the Liberals jumped to second place in the province and did extremely well in Winnipeg. However, while at the provincial level the Liberals quickly fell back again and haven't elected more than three MLAs in a general election for the last quarter-century, at the federal level they've remained strong in Winnipeg, generally placing first or second in most ridings there.)

Countering that, the federal NDP's 1980 best result in Manitoba happened when there was an unpopular provincial PC government--ditto with Sask and (using the Socred proxy) BC in 1988...
Logged
DistingFlyer
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 394
Canada


Political Matrix
E: 0.25, S: -1.74

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2105 on: November 03, 2019, 07:29:35 am »
« Edited: November 03, 2019, 11:06:28 am by DistingFlyer »


(One curious instance of provincial & federal trends briefly paralleling and then diverging is Winnipeg: in 1988, the provincial NDP government was heavily defeated and fell to third, while the Liberals took a strong second and dominated the capital. The federal election eight months later saw a similar change, as the Liberals jumped to second place in the province and did extremely well in Winnipeg. However, while at the provincial level the Liberals quickly fell back again and haven't elected more than three MLAs in a general election for the last quarter-century, at the federal level they've remained strong in Winnipeg, generally placing first or second in most ridings there.)

Countering that, the federal NDP's 1980 best result in Manitoba happened when there was an unpopular provincial PC government--ditto with Sask and (using the Socred proxy) BC in 1988...

Yes, that's true; provincial governments' popularity getting reflected in federal results is especially strong in BC, where the NDP does well (at the federal level) only when they're not in power provincially. In addition to Saskatchewan in 1988, you can see it in 1984 as well: in spite of a big nationwide victory for Brian Mulroney, in Saskatchewan the Tories only made small gains (and actually did less well than in 1979, which was pre-Devine).

In the 1990s, one saw this happen across a couple provinces: the NDP governments of BC & Ontario were extremely unpopular (though the BC party managed to squeak in a second term anyway), and the federal party was nearly destroyed in those two provinces. The Romanow government in Saskatchewan, however, while it did some controversial things, remained popular enough to win another decade in power and keep a respectable total of MPs during that time.

Popularity of a recently-elected government can also be a boost federally: their best-ever showing in Saskatchewan was in 1945 (just edging out 1988), which I'm sure had to do with Douglas' provincial victory a year earlier. The NDP's modest gains in BC in 1972 were also probably a reflection of Dave Barrett's win two months before. Obviously Alberta in 2015 is an exception to this, as the federal party did very poorly at year's end, as in Manitoba throughout the Doer years (particularly 2000).
Logged
adma
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,563
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2106 on: November 03, 2019, 10:32:49 am »

Popularity of a recently-elected government can also be a boost federally: their best-ever showing in Saskatchewan was in 1945 (just edging out 1988), which I'm sure had to do with Douglas' provincial victory a year earlier. The NDP's modest gains in BC in 1972 were also probably a reflection of Dave Barrett's win two months before. Obviously Alberta in 2015 is an exception to this, as the federal party did very poorly at year's end, as is Manitoba throughout the Doer years (particularly 2000).

Re Manitoba, any "particularly" in 2000 probably had more to do with federal than provincial patterns (it being a sloppy-seconds election for Alexa and all); but they held all of their seats, and a lot of the shifts (much as in Saskatchewan) had more to do with the broader federal ReformAllianceConservative shifts that have brought us to this monolithic-blue-bloc day.  In fact, I'd argue that Doer's steady hand at the official-opposition tiller actually made, in a reverse from 1988, the NDP *overperform* in Manitoba relative to the federal pattern in 1993 (even if said pattern was so dismal, it was only good enough to save Bill Blaikie's seat), and turned that into four seats in 1997, which was double the 1988 tally...
Logged
DistingFlyer
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 394
Canada


Political Matrix
E: 0.25, S: -1.74

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2107 on: November 03, 2019, 10:49:07 am »
« Edited: November 03, 2019, 10:56:38 am by DistingFlyer »

Looking at long winning streaks in particular provinces/regions, here is how things compare:

Conservatives in Ontario beat the Liberals in fourteen consecutive federal elections (1878 to 1930).

The Liberal streak in Quebec comes with an asterisk or two, as in 1891 & 1911 the Tories outpolled them while electing fewer members. If you go by MPs only, then the Liberal run lasted from 1891 to 1957 - seventeen consecutive elections. If you remove 1891 & 1911 from this period, then it lasts from 1917 to 1957 - a still-impressive eleven-election streak, and one with generally bigger margins than the Tories enjoyed in Ontario (one reason why Liberal governments became the norm after 1896).

As for the West (or the Prairies), it gets a bit more complicated: multi-party races became normal much earlier than elsewhere, sometimes with informal pacts (like the Liberals & Progressives in the 1920s) making vote shares tricky. Other times, like 1957, you have a party coming fourth in votes (the CCF, at 22%) electing the largest number of MPs (22). The Tory split in the 1990s also complicates things.

If the criteria are getting both the largest number of votes and electing the largest number of MPs, the Conservative (or conservative) streak on the Prairies begins in 1958 rather than 1957, and lasts to the present day if you include the Reform & Alliance victories during the Chretien years. That's a run of twenty consecutive elections (so far). If you don't include the Reformers, then the run lasts from 1958 to 1988, a still-high tally of eleven elections.

If one includes BC and looks at the entire Western region, the conservative run begins in 1972 and lasts until the present - fifteen elections with probably more to come. If one doesn't include the Reformers and just goes by capital-C Conservatives, then the run is only six elections (1972 to 1988 and 2004 to 2019).

Finally, my own region of Atlantic Canada. Although it has generally tended Liberal since Confederation (and especially since Newfoundland's admittance), it's also been quite willing to go Tory, sometimes even against the grain of a Liberal government (as in 1896, 1925, 1926, 1968, 1972 & 1997, and to a degree 1965 & 1974). For that reason, the longest streak of victories for any party is five (Conservatives from 1878 to 1896 and Liberals from 1935 to 1953).
Logged
DistingFlyer
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 394
Canada


Political Matrix
E: 0.25, S: -1.74

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2108 on: November 03, 2019, 10:54:29 am »
« Edited: November 03, 2019, 01:41:36 pm by DistingFlyer »

Popularity of a recently-elected government can also be a boost federally: their best-ever showing in Saskatchewan was in 1945 (just edging out 1988), which I'm sure had to do with Douglas' provincial victory a year earlier. The NDP's modest gains in BC in 1972 were also probably a reflection of Dave Barrett's win two months before. Obviously Alberta in 2015 is an exception to this, as the federal party did very poorly at year's end, as is Manitoba throughout the Doer years (particularly 2000).

Re Manitoba, any "particularly" in 2000 probably had more to do with federal than provincial patterns (it being a sloppy-seconds election for Alexa and all); but they held all of their seats, and a lot of the shifts (much as in Saskatchewan) had more to do with the broader federal ReformAllianceConservative shifts that have brought us to this monolithic-blue-bloc day.  In fact, I'd argue that Doer's steady hand at the official-opposition tiller actually made, in a reverse from 1988, the NDP *overperform* in Manitoba relative to the federal pattern in 1993 (even if said pattern was so dismal, it was only good enough to save Bill Blaikie's seat), and turned that into four seats in 1997, which was double the 1988 tally...

Agreed - I was just illustrating some instances where a popular NDP provincial government (or unpopular non-NDP one) didn't translate into much of an improvement at the federal level, while in other instances it did. Certainly the NDP's weak state during this time made such a thing very hard to do, especially with the Reformers taking up the Prairie populist banner so effectively; this also helps to explain the party's poor Alberta showing in 2015. It also ties back to a point made earlier about those provincial parties being far more moderate than the federal one: many voters there who support leaders like Rachel Notley, Roy Romanow or Gary Doer may be more inclined to vote Liberal (or even Tory) at the national level than NDP.
Logged
King of Kensington
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,621


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2109 on: November 03, 2019, 02:26:29 pm »

I wonder how many British Columbians mocked GW Bush and voted for Stockwell Day's Canadian Alliance that same year?
Logged
King of Kensington
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,621


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2110 on: November 04, 2019, 12:40:56 pm »

Western alienation has narrowed geographically to Alberta and Saskatchewan.  Manitoba was never as "alienated" and BC increasingly looks like Manitoba.

https://globalnews.ca/news/6084080/analysis-western-alienation-alberta-saskatchewan/
Logged
MaxQue
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,162
Canada


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2111 on: November 04, 2019, 01:00:03 pm »

Elizabeth May resigns as Green leader, but will stay as parliamentary leader for the moment.

New leader elected on October 4, 2020. Interim leader is Jo-Ann Roberts, former journalist and defeated candidate in Halifax.
Logged
DistingFlyer
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 394
Canada


Political Matrix
E: 0.25, S: -1.74

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2112 on: November 08, 2019, 11:24:17 am »
« Edited: November 08, 2019, 11:43:35 am by DistingFlyer »

Nunavut's official count has finally come in, and it looks like all three recounts have been dropped.

Have updated an earlier chart illustrating safe vs. moderate vs. marginal constituencies over the years (Reply #2020, https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=305434.msg7026207#msg7026207); changed a couple figures for 2019, added acclamations columns & extended the data back to 1896.

Have also updated the 2019 maps posted earlier (Reply #2000, https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=305434.msg7025705#msg7025705) - generally just some subtle shading changes, as well as fixing two stupid mistakes I made.

Finally, have updated the set of federal & provincial electoral data files (https://drive.google.com/drive/folders/1Pa-73KSfj_nmezJ0WKTKrjlDW6RFUJJR) - have added Newfoundland, BC & New Brunswick, and of course have put 2019's data into the federal file. Have not put pre-1949 data into the federal file yet, as some of the figures are still a little less certain (particularly pre-1917) than I'd like them to be, but may put those in later.
Logged
Trends are real, and I f**king hate it
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 51,566
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2113 on: November 08, 2019, 03:47:17 pm »

Are the official result being posted somewhere? I couldn't find them with a google search.
Logged
DistingFlyer
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 394
Canada


Political Matrix
E: 0.25, S: -1.74

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2114 on: November 08, 2019, 04:07:57 pm »

Are the official result being posted somewhere? I couldn't find them with a google search.

Use this link: http://enr.elections.ca/DownloadResults.aspx  
Logged
Trends are real, and I f**king hate it
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 51,566
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2115 on: November 08, 2019, 07:46:18 pm »


Thanks!
Logged
DistingFlyer
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 394
Canada


Political Matrix
E: 0.25, S: -1.74

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2116 on: November 09, 2019, 01:29:02 pm »

Here's a map showing the swings in each constituency:



[One note of explanation: in instances where the top two parties didn't remain the same from 2015 to 2019, I based it off of the top two parties in 2019 (for instance, a riding that went from Tory vs. Liberal to Tory vs. NDP has the Tory-NDP swing shown; one reason why some Prairie swings are a little smaller than you might expect). The only exception was if a party went from first to third - then it became a swing between 2015's winner & 2019's winner (one reason why some Bloc swings are so large, as they're NDP-to-Bloc swings in many previously-NDP ridings where the NDP plunged to third or fourth place this time).]
Logged
DistingFlyer
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 394
Canada


Political Matrix
E: 0.25, S: -1.74

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2117 on: November 09, 2019, 11:21:12 pm »
« Edited: November 09, 2019, 11:50:52 pm by DistingFlyer »

I'd spoken some time ago about the high re-election rate of Ministers this time around - the highest for a government that lost seats overall since 1953 - so here is a table illustrating how well Ministries did at each election since 1867.

There have been five instances where a sitting Prime Minister was personally defeated: 1921 (Arthur Meighen in Portage la Prairie), 1925 (Mackenzie King in York North), 1926 (Arthur Meighen in Portage la Prairie), 1945 (Mackenzie King in Prince Albert) and 1993 (Kim Campbell in Vancouver Centre).



(You'll see in the notes column that some people contested more than one constituency in an election; they only get counted once in the won/lost columns. If a person won one and lost one, then they're counted in the 'won' column.)
Logged
toaster
Rookie
**
Posts: 203
Canada


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2118 on: November 13, 2019, 03:52:47 pm »

Anyone else find it interesting that the urban ridings in Ontario that tend to be further left of centre (progressive left) stayed Liberal (Parkdale-High Park, Ottawa Centre, Toronto Danforth) but the more rural/labour left regions (AMG, Timmins-James Bay, Hamilton) stayed NDP.  I would have predicted the opposite given Singh.  It's kind of bizarre to think Andrea Horwath was more popular in Toronto Centre, Beaches - East York, than Singh.
Logged
International Brotherhood of Bernard
interstate73
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 652


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2119 on: November 13, 2019, 04:26:41 pm »

Anyone else find it interesting that the urban ridings in Ontario that tend to be further left of centre (progressive left) stayed Liberal (Parkdale-High Park, Ottawa Centre, Toronto Danforth) but the more rural/labour left regions (AMG, Timmins-James Bay, Hamilton) stayed NDP.  I would have predicted the opposite given Singh.  It's kind of bizarre to think Andrea Horwath was more popular in Toronto Centre, Beaches - East York, than Singh.

I mean I'd have to guess that's mostly a result of the NDP being a serious contender for the premiership (and ultimately becoming the Official Opposition) in the last provincial election vs. being a clear 3rd fiddle and potential spoiler federally...
Logged
adma
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,563
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2120 on: November 13, 2019, 07:03:20 pm »

And in each of those cases, incumbency matters.  (Remember: the NDP netted no Ontario gains.)
Logged
Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 24,894
Canada


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2121 on: November 14, 2019, 11:44:28 am »

And in each of those cases, incumbency matters.  (Remember: the NDP netted no Ontario gains.)

Correct. Incumbency is the #1 reason.

Also, the NDP was short on cash, so didn't put up much of a fight in Toronto.
Logged
adma
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,563
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2122 on: November 14, 2019, 07:27:36 pm »


Also, the NDP was short on cash, so didn't put up much of a fight in Toronto.

It should never be forgotten that at the beginning of the campaign, there looked to be a realistic possibility that the NDP was headed for a 1993-type decimation debacle--thus a lot of their "poor" and  "disappointing" results were actually improvements on what looked to be on the horizon a month or so earlier.

One case in point that comes to mind: Niagara Centre, where former MP Malcolm Allen finished 3rd with 27% of the vote--but that was 10 points higher than an earlier Mainstreet poll projected...
Logged
mileslunn
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,765
Canada


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2123 on: November 20, 2019, 02:40:06 am »

Anyone else find it interesting that the urban ridings in Ontario that tend to be further left of centre (progressive left) stayed Liberal (Parkdale-High Park, Ottawa Centre, Toronto Danforth) but the more rural/labour left regions (AMG, Timmins-James Bay, Hamilton) stayed NDP.  I would have predicted the opposite given Singh.  It's kind of bizarre to think Andrea Horwath was more popular in Toronto Centre, Beaches - East York, than Singh.

Downtown Toronto unlike Northern Ontario is mostly promiscous progressives who are more driven by desire to keep the Tories out of office than vote for any given party, so they tend to swing massively behind whichever progressive party is most likely to achieve that.
Logged
mileslunn
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,765
Canada


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2124 on: November 20, 2019, 02:42:16 am »

Maybe it was asked elsewhere, but how come Kenora was one of the few to flip to the Tories in Ontario.  If people told me they would only pick up a few seats, this would have not been on my list of top 10 most likely pick ups for them.  The two losses Milton and Kitchener-Conestoga I would have guessed as in those cases I think demographic changes as a decade ago both were fairly rural but now more suburban today is what cost the Tories there.  They didn't so much lose votes, but failed to win over those who moved into the riding which mostly broke in favour of the Liberals. 

Also for up north, Yukon was surprisingly close while surprised NDP won Nunavut, but know North is more candidate centric than Southern Canada so perhaps someone with more knowledge of that region or local candidates might be able to explain.
Logged
Pages: 1 ... 80 81 82 83 84 [85] 86 87 Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length
Logout

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines