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  Talk Elections
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  Canadian Election 2019 (search mode)
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Author Topic: Canadian Election 2019  (Read 119673 times)
adma
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« on: November 02, 2018, 07:56:45 pm »

Memo to Old School Republican: get out of this thread, you're derailing it.

Oh, and back to the topic at hand: somehow, I *can* see Maxime Bernier winning his own seat, even if his party dumpster-fires elsewhere.  In effect, he might as well be "independent", much like his father in 1993...
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adma
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« Reply #1 on: November 14, 2018, 07:39:19 pm »

Frankly, with a NDP number that low, I'd worry that they're poised to be "Audreyed" a la 1993
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adma
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« Reply #2 on: December 02, 2018, 11:00:25 pm »

Don't all Mississauga ridings have the name Mississauga in them?  Why take one out?  Also, Greater Sudbury - Nickel Belt is confusing, but I guess you can't really name all the (formerly separate) surrounding municipalities. 

Re Mississauga: it's almost like Toronto-Danforth in reverse.

And isn't Greater Sudbury and Nickel Belt practically one and the same?  Better off calling it Nickel Belt-Sturgeon Falls, then...
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adma
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« Reply #3 on: January 05, 2019, 06:43:56 pm »

It also depends on the opposition--that is, if worst case scenarios re Jagmeet Singh's NDP leadership come to pass, we could conceivably see the most "binary" Canadian election in eons, not unlike the 2017 UK election.  In which case, even a modest share difference might not stand in the way of a majority in either direction...
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adma
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« Reply #4 on: January 06, 2019, 03:34:57 pm »

Depends how totally the NDP collapses. A lot of the Liberals' vote efficiency is because there are a number of seats where they would have enormous margins in a straight LPC-CPC fight but the LPC numbers are brought down by sizeable NDP votes. If the NDP does really poorly (<10 seats) at the next election, which doesn't seem implausible, the Liberals probably don't have a vote concentration advantage because they'll be approaching 70%+ in a lot of urban ridings.

Let's remember that the Libs were disadvantaged in 1979 because *they* had the overly-plumped-vote circumstance--Quebec was for them then what Alberta/Prairies is for CPC presently.

A lot, too, might depend on whether Bernier's PPC has any discernable ballot-box traction, whether as winner or as spoiler...
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adma
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« Reply #5 on: January 09, 2019, 07:21:49 pm »

To add to what Miles said, there's a weird southernesque racial voting pattern in northern Mantoba and Sasketchewan.

If you look at poll maps for thos ridings on

http://www.election-atlas.ca

In those areas the white areas will vote 80%+ or the Tories, and the reservations will vote NDP/Liberal by similar margins.

That even goes for southern ManSask ridings: other than major urban centres, the patches of non-blue tend to be reserves.  (Or to a limited extent and depending on the election and place, Metis.)
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adma
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« Reply #6 on: January 10, 2019, 07:52:51 pm »

Scott Brison is not running for re-election.  Since this was a Tory stronghold before he crossed the floor, this would normally make this a target for the Tories, but with how badly they were damaged in 2015, I suspect the Liberals should be able to hold this even if not quite the same blowout as in 2015.

Preface: I still think the Liberals win Kings-Hants rather comfortably.

The Tories have recovered quite a bit in Atlantic Canada, and rural Anglo ridings are the sort of place where I would expect the recovery to disproportionately occur. Also, local politics matter a lot more out east, so Brison's departure will hurt the Liberals more than a typical popular cabinet retirement. The Tories could scrape out a victory if everything goes right.

My actual prediction for a surprise Tory win is Cumberland-Colchester.

I wouldn't call it that much of a "surprise"; Bill Casey's about the only thing in the way of its becoming the likeliest Tory pickup in Nova Scotia--probably because it's the least "Celtic fringe" of NS's rural-based seats (i.e. more of a synergy w/Anglo New Brunswick)
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adma
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« Reply #7 on: January 31, 2019, 07:11:23 pm »

Interesting, Tories would have two point lead if PPC votes all went to them, but with such a small percentage I think will only matter if super close.

This might strike some as counterintuitive; but drawing from the Reform experience a quarter century ago, might PPC be stealing populist votes from the NDP as well?
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adma
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« Reply #8 on: February 08, 2019, 07:12:39 am »


Really?  Except for 1965 and 1988, single digits was the NDP norm for QC pre-2008.  The main thing standing in the way of that now is token incumbent seat bounce...
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adma
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« Reply #9 on: February 20, 2019, 07:24:38 am »

This thread's being, er, distracted by politics.  In the end, it's not about which side is *right* (or clean, or corrupt, or whatever), as much as it's about how the virtues and pitfalls communicate themselves to the voter. 

And at this point, it's still far from clear that it's all a fatal blow to Liberal chances--the election's still a ways off, and the presently-hobbled Libs can ultimately still generate a fair bit of not-the-Cons momentum.  (If this all happened midcampaign, as in the 2006 election, things would be a lot different.)
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adma
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« Reply #10 on: February 20, 2019, 05:54:14 pm »

Ipsos has a new poll

36-34-17
No detailed splits that I could fine. Similar to the Campaign Research poll, it shows a modest bump for the Tories

This thread's being, er, distracted by politics.  In the end, it's not about which side is *right* (or clean, or corrupt, or whatever), as much as it's about how the virtues and pitfalls communicate themselves to the voter. 

And at this point, it's still far from clear that it's all a fatal blow to Liberal chances--the election's still a ways off, and the presently-hobbled Libs can ultimately still generate a fair bit of not-the-Cons momentum.  (If this all happened midcampaign, as in the 2006 election, things would be a lot different.)

Agreed. A knockout blow would require big news after summer break. For now the Tories and NDP are just going to have to hope for a drip drip of bad news stories adds up to something bigger.

And whatever the scandal, either side is going to be handicapped for being "who they are" to a certain type of voter of an opposite inclination.  That's why holding-one's-nose strategic voting has *always* existed--indeed, it might be argued that the current Lib circumstance might ironically push *more* panicky voters (presumably of the ex-NDP/Green sort) into the Lib camp so as to desperately try to deny the Cons a majority...
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adma
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« Reply #11 on: February 21, 2019, 07:31:40 am »

And whatever the scandal, either side is going to be handicapped for being "who they are" to a certain type of voter of an opposite inclination.  That's why holding-one's-nose strategic voting has *always* existed--indeed, it might be argued that the current Lib circumstance might ironically push *more* panicky voters (presumably of the ex-NDP/Green sort) into the Lib camp so as to desperately try to deny the Cons a majority...

Ah, shades of 2004-2006 Tongue

Or for that matter, the 2010 Toronto mayoral election, where what was polling as a blowout for Rob Ford turned into a 47.1-35.6 Ford-Smitherman margin instead.  (And similarly in 2014, promiscuous progressives piling into the John Tory camp as an antidote to Doug Ford--and maybe provincially in 2018, where Premier Ford's winning margin was much tighter than anything that looked to be in the cards when Patrick Brown was PC leader.)
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adma
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« Reply #12 on: February 28, 2019, 07:13:36 pm »

Trudeau will probably win reelection this fall regardless of the scandals.

Yep. Not even the Sponsorship Scandal has stopped Paul Martin's PLC to win the 2004 Canadian Federal elections by 7 percentage points nationally.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sponsorship_scandal

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2004_Canadian_federal_election

Yes and no.  Harper was ahead despite the party being less than six months old for much of the campaign, but lost due to a number of bozo eruptions by candidates, much the same way the Wildrose party lose in Alberta in 2012.  Tories are more established so have better infrastructure although on the bozo eruptions part it could go either way.  Being more established they will probably due to a better job of vetting candidates at the same time with social media its not just bozo eruptions during the campaign, but even ones from 10 years ago and you can bet the war rooms from each party will scroll through people's twitter accounts carefully and publicize anyone that can help paint the party as extreme.  Also sponsorship scandal was more seen as something to do with Chretien not Paul Martin whereas Trudeau was directly implicated here.  So certainly I think that does suggest those suggesting it will mean Trudeau will be defeated are wrong, but also it could be fatal although won't necessarily.

The collateral "bozo factor", though, might be provincial gov'ts (esp. Ford in Ontario, and potentially Kenney in Alberta)--remember how a big reason for 1993's NDP collapse was the perceived catastrophe of the Rae gov't in Ontario, and to a lesser extent turmoil w/the Harcourt gov't in BC; and Mike Harris fright/fatigue arguably didn't help the federal right-of-centre forces in Ontario from the late 90s to well into Harper's term in office...
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adma
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« Reply #13 on: March 01, 2019, 07:35:43 am »

The collateral "bozo factor", though, might be provincial gov'ts (esp. Ford in Ontario, and potentially Kenney in Alberta)--remember how a big reason for 1993's NDP collapse was the perceived catastrophe of the Rae gov't in Ontario, and to a lesser extent turmoil w/the Harcourt gov't in BC; and Mike Harris fright/fatigue arguably didn't help the federal right-of-centre forces in Ontario from the late 90s to well into Harper's term in office...

Definitely true with Doug Ford, less sure about Kenney.  Agree outside of Alberta he would be quite unpopular, but pretty sure the Tories will win almost every seat in Alberta.  If anything Kenney might be more like Klein who was very popular in Alberta (I don't think Kenney will have Klein like approval ratings though), but widely mocked in the rest of Canada and often used as a whipping boy of what the Tories would be like if they ran federally.  The main problem with that is Kenney will be new on the job and although people have some familiarity of his as federal minister any unpopular harmful policies are likely to come after the election not before. 

At the same time Wynne's popularity even in October 2015 was not much different than Ford's is now and didn't stop Trudeau from winning in Ontario.  Yes her popularity fell quite a bit after and true I think she probably did more harm than good for Trudeau there, after all the Tory vote held up better in Ontario that it did in BC, Manitoba, or Atlantic Canada where they saw much bigger drops thus suggesting if Wynne weren't premier Tories probably would have done even worse.

 That being said with relatively few Liberal premiers that does help Trudeau and with mostly small c conservative ones that may be somewhat problematic for Scheer.

I'm not thinking of Kenney in terms of Alberta, so much as nationwide impressions--much as was the case with Bob Rae in 1993.

And with Wynne in 2015, she and her government still had a soft-focus "good stewards of power" net-plus reputation--by and large, I'd claim she was still more of a Justin-deal-sealing "Premier Mom" net plus than minus at that time.  And as for the Con vote holding up: it's not just a matter of Ontario vs other provinces, it's also about *where* (and among whom) in Ontario and said other provinces.  Like in Manitoba, it was really more of a "Winnipeg" matter--outside of Winnipeg, the patterns were consistent w/the rest of the rural Prairies--and in the Maritimes and BC, it was a matter of vestigial Red Tories and "promiscuous populists", if you will.  And likewise, where the Cons "held up" best in Ontario were more foretellings of patterns that became clear under Ford (eg the more-marginal-than-expected losses in York Region ethnoburbia)
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adma
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« Reply #14 on: March 01, 2019, 06:46:49 pm »

In regards to the Greens I guess the question is if this is finally that "Green Surge" or not, I'd guess it depends on how May and Singh perform.

Also, would it be wrong to see this GE as essentially 2 elections?  Tories vs Liberals and NDP vs Greens?

Remember that when it comes to "scientific" election projection sites, they go by polls; and the Greens have a habit of overpolling btw/elections.  So at this point, I *might* take any done-deal Green prediction for Victoria with a grain of salt.

And at this point, too, I might view the other end of the country instead as goes Green-surge potential.
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adma
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« Reply #15 on: March 01, 2019, 06:48:47 pm »

If you look in 2004 at advanced polls vs. e-day the difference was noticeable as Tories especially in Ontario won many and in fact in 10 ridings they won in 2004, it was due to advanced polls and actually lost e-day ones.  Now to be fair Tories always seem to do better in advanced polls than e-day ones.

The "now to be fair" is the important point here.  For that reason, I'd be guarded about using the polls in advance as a barometer.
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adma
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« Reply #16 on: March 03, 2019, 10:28:06 am »


Some one term Liberal MPs have announced they are not running again in the last days:
TJ Harvey, Tobique-Mactaquac
John Oliver, Oakville
Celina Caesar-Chavannes, Whitby

All three, low hanging Conservative fruit.
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adma
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« Reply #17 on: March 04, 2019, 06:34:21 pm »

Here is the numbers so far from what I've seen:

13 NDP MPs (30% of caucus) not running again, 15 (15% of caucus) Conservatives so far, and 17 (9% of caucus) Liberals and counting, seven of them first-termers. (that's a shock there)


I wonder how mny of those first-termers even expected to win in the first place, given how the Libs looked to be potentially a third-party force going into the 2015 election...
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adma
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« Reply #18 on: March 04, 2019, 06:57:16 pm »

Jane Phippott just resigned from cabinet so looks like the bottom of this hasn't come yet.  Her riding no doubt was one of the top Tory targets of Liberal cabinet ministers.  Went PC provincially by almost 20 points and she only narrowly won so only Amarjeet Sohi (Edmonton-Mill Woods) I would say was in greater danger, maybe Karina Gould (Burlington), and Maryam Monsef (Peterborough-Kawartha) not too far behind although in case of Burlington that is more your traditional fiscally conservative but socially liberal area, otherwise similar to Conservative-Remain areas in UK and Romney-Clinton in the US so with a uniform swing more vulnerable, but looking at demographics and provincial results perhaps not.  Either way this is a huge blow to the Liberals and while not fatal by any means, Trudeau needs to find a way to turn this around quickly if he wants to stop it from spiraling out of control.

By York Region standards, Philpott's win wasn't *that* narrow--in fact, it was the Libs' second best in York after McCallum's seat.  And likewise, provincially, it was the Tories' second lowest share in York (after Newmarket-Aurora) and second lowest margin (after Vaughan-Woodbridge).

And I would say it's because it's the most "Burlingtonian" seat in York Region, i.e. it's got more affluent non-ethnoburban gentility than the rest, the kind that finds CPC/Ford populism a bit on the coarse side.  (Food for thought: in the Ballantrae Golf Club gated community, which one'd "normally" expect to be a Conservative stronghold, the provincial PCs only prevailed over the Liberals by 4 points last year.)

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adma
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« Reply #19 on: March 05, 2019, 06:46:03 pm »

Jane Phippott just resigned from cabinet so looks like the bottom of this hasn't come yet.  Her riding no doubt was one of the top Tory targets of Liberal cabinet ministers.  Went PC provincially by almost 20 points and she only narrowly won so only Amarjeet Sohi (Edmonton-Mill Woods) I would say was in greater danger, maybe Karina Gould (Burlington), and Maryam Monsef (Peterborough-Kawartha) not too far behind although in case of Burlington that is more your traditional fiscally conservative but socially liberal area, otherwise similar to Conservative-Remain areas in UK and Romney-Clinton in the US so with a uniform swing more vulnerable, but looking at demographics and provincial results perhaps not.  Either way this is a huge blow to the Liberals and while not fatal by any means, Trudeau needs to find a way to turn this around quickly if he wants to stop it from spiraling out of control.

By York Region standards, Philpott's win wasn't *that* narrow--in fact, it was the Libs' second best in York after McCallum's seat.  And likewise, provincially, it was the Tories' second lowest share in York (after Newmarket-Aurora) and second lowest margin (after Vaughan-Woodbridge).

And I would say it's because it's the most "Burlingtonian" seat in York Region, i.e. it's got more affluent non-ethnoburban gentility than the rest, the kind that finds CPC/Ford populism a bit on the coarse side.  (Food for thought: in the Ballantrae Golf Club gated community, which one'd "normally" expect to be a Conservative stronghold, the provincial PCs only prevailed over the Liberals by 4 points last year.)



True enough although Whitchurch-Stouffville still has a rural feel to it.  Also Calandra got 42% federally so that is a pretty solid base to work from.  In both cases it would be for Ontario Cons +7 as Conservative support is around 7 points above whatever Conservative support is overall in Ontario.  So if Conservatives fall below 35%, then only if NDP does much better than expected can they pick this up.  If in upper 30s will depend on if NDP stays in single digits or rises to double, while if Tories get over 40% in Ontario, they will almost certainly flip this one.  So I think overall Ontario numbers will be a good guess so if under 35% for Tories stays Liberal 35-40% for Tories could go either way and if over 40% Tories then they flip it.

Actually, I'm not denying the likelihood of the Cons winning it (or *any* seat in Ontario where they still managed a 40%+ share in loss).  I'm merely stating that it's not *as* Conservative as it seems--which is a reason why, despite Whitchurch-Stouffville and Calandra's incumbency, it flipped in 2015 while Markham-Unionville went the other way; up to that point, conventional wisdom would have had it the other way around.  And even rural Whitchurch-Stouffville isn't the dominant rightward-pushing factor it once might have been, what with Stouffville proper rapidly suburbanizing (and the aforementioned Ballantrae GC being in the rural part).

That is, even before her cabinet-resignation-on-principle, Philpott would, in the event of Justinian electoral disaster, probably still have kept (with the help of riding demos) some electoral dignity intact--a federal version of what happened provincially last year to Steven Del Duca or (even more to the point) Charles Sousa or Kevin Flynn.
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adma
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« Reply #20 on: March 12, 2019, 08:54:25 pm »

In terms of raw support, the NDP seem to have been the main beneficiary of this scandal.

Well, a double-barrelled beneficiary--of the scandal, and of finally having their leader in Parliament.
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adma
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« Reply #21 on: March 13, 2019, 05:46:11 pm »


b) Scheer doesn't trigger progressives like a Ford or Harper figure.


Actually, anyone party to "left" social media will tell you that he *does*--if more by way of extension from Ford/Harper (and beyond that, Trump, Yellow Vests, Pizzagate nutters, etc).  And it's not like he's given signals of moderation the way that Patrick Brown did as Ontario PC leader--probably because he also seeks to ward off rightward leakage to Bernier...
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adma
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« Reply #22 on: March 14, 2019, 06:55:13 pm »

Though as we see above, they're doing 7% in one poll and 16% in another--are they sinking away, or are they stabilizing or even modestly recovering, one wonders..
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adma
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« Reply #23 on: March 15, 2019, 05:26:22 pm »

Though as we see above, they're doing 7% in one poll and 16% in another--are they sinking away, or are they stabilizing or even modestly recovering, one wonders..

16% is national while 7% is Quebec only.  In BC they have a strong base, while Ontario they are usually in the 15-20% range and some polls show a slight uptick there.  Also have a somewhat weakening base in Sask/Manitoba too.  Prior to 2011, NDP support in Quebec was always well below what they had nationally so could be just a reversion to normal.

The 16% was the Quebec region polling numbers from Campaign research. I think what we see is volatility and people parking votes.

Yeah.  How the NDP and the Bloc could be tied at 16% *nationally* would be beyond me...
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adma
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« Reply #24 on: March 21, 2019, 05:41:13 pm »


That url needs to be compacted.
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