COVID-19 Megathread 6: Return of the Omicron

[It’s so Joever]

If herd immunity isn't real, how do we explain the decline in cases in places that were already hit the hardest?

It isn't a strategy. It's just something that's already happened. We can't reverse it now that it's happened already.

And by the way, don’t you have heart issues?
How are you not concerned about these early findings?

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

If herd immunity isn't real, how do we explain the decline in cases in places that were already hit the hardest?

It isn't a strategy. It's just something that's already happened. We can't reverse it now that it's happened already.

Cyclical cause and effect.  Places that get hit hard go in for more social distancing (whether mandated or not).  Then when cases understandably go down as a result, social distancing relaxes and cases go back up again.  

Herd immunity has not been reached to any significant degree anywhere in the U.S. except possibly the New York City area.

I’m not sure how you explain the trends in Arizona other than herd immunity.  They had the highest per capita case rate for quite a while, and then cases suddenly dropped almost 90% over the last eight weeks.  Did they really do anything drastically different than any other state?

[It’s so Joever]

If herd immunity isn't real, how do we explain the decline in cases in places that were already hit the hardest?

It isn't a strategy. It's just something that's already happened. We can't reverse it now that it's happened already.

Cyclical cause and effect.  Places that get hit hard go in for more social distancing (whether mandated or not).  Then when cases understandably go down as a result, social distancing relaxes and cases go back up again.  

Herd immunity has not been reached to any significant degree anywhere in the U.S. except possibly the New York City area.

I’m not sure how you explain the trends in Arizona other than herd immunity.  They had the highest per capita case rate for quite a while, and then cases suddenly dropped almost 90% over the last eight weeks.  Did they really do anything drastically different than any other state?

It’s a combination of temporary immunity, mask usage, and some (but not a lot) of decrease in activity.

[Dr. Arch]

The updated numbers for COVID-19 in the U.S. are in for 9/1 per: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

I'm keeping track of these updates daily and updating at the end of the day, whenever all states finish reporting for that day.

New - Substituting the Δ Change metric as of 7/13 on dates starting from 7/5:
ΔW Change: Comparisons of Weekly Day-to-day Growth or Decline of COVID-19 Spread/Deaths.

• IE: Comparing the numbers to the same day of last week, are we flattening the curve enough?

Σ Increase: A day's contribution to overall percentage growth of COVID-19 cases/deaths.

• IE: What's the overall change in the total?

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8/23: <Sunday>

• Cases: 5,874,146 (+32,718| ΔW Change: ↓11.20% | Σ Increase: ↑0.56%)
• Deaths: 180,604 (+430 | ΔW Change: ↓17.62% | Σ Increase: ↑0.24%)

8/24: <M>

• Cases: 5,915,630 (+41,484| ΔW Change: ↓8.62% | Σ Increase: ↑0.71%)
• Deaths: 181,114 (+510 | ΔW Change: ↓13.27% | Σ Increase: ↑0.28%)

8/25: <T>

• Cases: 5,955,728 (+40,098| ΔW Change: ↓8.76% | Σ Increase: ↑0.68%)
• Deaths: 182,404 (+1,290 | ΔW Change: ↓5.01% | Σ Increase: ↑0.71%)

8/26: <W>

• Cases: 6,000,365 (+44,637| ΔW Change: ↓0.71% | Σ Increase: ↑0.75%)
• Deaths: 183,653 (+1,249 | ΔW Change: ↓1.11% | Σ Increase: ↑0.68%)

8/27: <Þ>

• Cases: 6,046,634 (+46,269| ΔW Change: ↑2.05% | Σ Increase: ↑0.77%)
• Deaths: 184,796 (+1,143 | ΔW Change: ↑5.15% | Σ Increase: ↑0.62%)

8/28: <F>

• Cases: 6,096,235 (+49,601| ΔW Change: ↓1.69% | Σ Increase: ↑0.82%)
• Deaths: 185,901 (+1,105 | ΔW Change: ↓37.78% | Σ Increase: ↑0.60%)

8/29: <S>

• Cases: 6,139,078 (+42,843| ΔW Change: ↓4.16% | Σ Increase: ↑0.70%)
• Deaths: 186,855 (+954 | ΔW Change: ↓2.05% | Σ Increase: ↑0.51%)

8/30: <Sunday>

• Cases: 6,173,236 (+34,158| ΔW Change: ↑4.40% | Σ Increase: ↑0.56%)
• Deaths: 187,224 (+369 | ΔW Change: ↓14.19% | Σ Increase: ↑0.20%)

8/31 (Yesterday): <M>

• Cases: 6,211,682 (+38,446| ΔW Change: ↓7.32% | Σ Increase: ↑0.62%)
• Deaths: 187,736 (+512 | ΔW Change: ↑0.39% | Σ Increase: ↑0.27%)

9/1 (Today): <T>

• Cases: 6,257,571 (+45,889| ΔW Change: ↑14.44% | Σ Increase: ↑0.74%)
• Deaths: 188,900 (+1,164 | ΔW Change: ↓9.77% | Σ Increase: ↑0.62%)

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

If herd immunity isn't real, how do we explain the decline in cases in places that were already hit the hardest?

It isn't a strategy. It's just something that's already happened. We can't reverse it now that it's happened already.

Cyclical cause and effect.  Places that get hit hard go in for more social distancing (whether mandated or not).  Then when cases understandably go down as a result, social distancing relaxes and cases go back up again.  

Herd immunity has not been reached to any significant degree anywhere in the U.S. except possibly the New York City area.

I’m not sure how you explain the trends in Arizona other than herd immunity.  They had the highest per capita case rate for quite a while, and then cases suddenly dropped almost 90% over the last eight weeks.  Did they really do anything drastically different than any other state?

It’s a combination of temporary immunity, mask usage, and some (but not a lot) of decrease in activity.

But nowhere else has seen a 90% drop in cases in the last two months.  Has Arizona really enforced masks and decreased activity that much better than everywhere else?

[Del Tachi]

https://twitter.com/DecoherenceWave/status/1300939069610885121

This is not good.

The SA article opens with a quote from noted COVID-19 expert Alyssa Milano, lol

33% of the study cohort had severe enough cases to have recovered in the hospital, and the study group had significantly higher rates of obesity, hypertension, diabetes and COPD than a risk-matched control group (doesn't really seem like it's that risk-matched to me, hmm....)

The risks to the healthy remain relatively minor.

[TJ in Oregon]

If herd immunity isn't real, how do we explain the decline in cases in places that were already hit the hardest?

It isn't a strategy. It's just something that's already happened. We can't reverse it now that it's happened already.

Cyclical cause and effect.  Places that get hit hard go in for more social distancing (whether mandated or not).  Then when cases understandably go down as a result, social distancing relaxes and cases go back up again.  

Herd immunity has not been reached to any significant degree anywhere in the U.S. except possibly the New York City area.

I’m not sure how you explain the trends in Arizona other than herd immunity.  They had the highest per capita case rate for quite a while, and then cases suddenly dropped almost 90% over the last eight weeks.  Did they really do anything drastically different than any other state?

It’s a combination of temporary immunity, mask usage, and some (but not a lot) of decrease in activity.

But nowhere else has seen a 90% drop in cases in the last two months.  Has Arizona really enforced masks and decreased activity that much better than everywhere else?

When considering herd immunity there's more complexity to it than just taking 1 - (1/R0). The simple notion assumes that each person has the same probability of spreading and receiving the virus. However, people aren't so interchangeable as that. If there is a subpopulation that is vastly more likely to get the virus and spread it (e.g. college students who go bar hopping), then once they reach herd immunity within that subgroup the transmission of the virus will fall dramatically, even if the number of high spreaders is relatively small. The assumption that each person has the same spread rate is the worst case scenario.

[It’s so Joever]

If herd immunity isn't real, how do we explain the decline in cases in places that were already hit the hardest?

It isn't a strategy. It's just something that's already happened. We can't reverse it now that it's happened already.

Cyclical cause and effect.  Places that get hit hard go in for more social distancing (whether mandated or not).  Then when cases understandably go down as a result, social distancing relaxes and cases go back up again.  

Herd immunity has not been reached to any significant degree anywhere in the U.S. except possibly the New York City area.

I’m not sure how you explain the trends in Arizona other than herd immunity.  They had the highest per capita case rate for quite a while, and then cases suddenly dropped almost 90% over the last eight weeks.  Did they really do anything drastically different than any other state?

It’s a combination of temporary immunity, mask usage, and some (but not a lot) of decrease in activity.

But nowhere else has seen a 90% drop in cases in the last two months.  Has Arizona really enforced masks and decreased activity that much better than everywhere else?

Reread my post.
And yes, when things got really bad in AZ, movement did drop while it was increasing rapidly pretty much everywhere else.
As for masks, they were not enforced by Ducey (although I think Maricopa had a mandate, don't hold me on that one) but as s**t hit the fan, people changed habits. Finally, TEMPORARY herd immunity definitely helped. We still don't know how long such immunity lasts (or partial immunity etc)
Basing a strategy on an assumption that doesn't allign with similar viruses is not logical.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

I don't think anyone is assuming that immunity will be permanent, or that it needs to be permanent to effectively fight the virus.  For the present purpose, it just needs to last until a vaccine is widely available.

[emailking]

The SA article opens with a quote from noted COVID-19 expert Alyssa Milano, lol

Is this supposed to be bad? It's not presented as anything more than an anecdotal comment about her experience.

Do you even read Scientific American? This is not at all uncommon in their articles. It's an excellent magazine.

[jamestroll]

Before you make an ignorant comment about my personal life, you might consider that you know nothing about it.

As it stands your characterization of my experience over the past six months is as inaccurate as your description of my views on the pandemic.

Your words are evil and thoughtless.

Antibody tests suggest that I had a virus. Which made sense. Because in March I felt a little bit sick and suddenly got a bunch of my co workers and others infected with Covid19 but I had no idea at the time. I have had two antibody tests which strongly suggest I had the virus. I felt overall fine at the time but had some cough and had little sense of taste or small. Red flags in hindsight!

I somehow kept my job during the covid19 lay offs and saw so many of my co workers lose their jobs permanently.  And while I strongly support the covid stimulus's I am still a budget hawk and very concerned about the future of our country with our bloated national debt.

I originally wanted an extension of lockdowns because I was under the impression that the lockdowns were for the government to buy time to make a plan for reopening. But that did not end up happening. Which resulted in a huge spike in cases and resulted in mask and social distancing mandates. Which really p*ssed me off because we could have done that in the beginning of the pandemic without large amounts of people losing their jobs and trillions added to the national debt.

Now I just see people fighting over masks, some unemployed people feeling entitled to government checks for life essentially, people who can work from home flaunting their privilege and telling people we should be locked down until every organism has a vaccine and even telling people who can't work from home to work from home. This has just brought out the worst in people.

And several people have used the , "BUT MY 105 year old great great grandmother" card towards me.  Which makes no sense because as a leader I would be far more cautious than most governors would have been in reopening.

[jamestroll]

I also even opposed Virginia moving into Phase 3 because I feared a huge spike in cases.. and what do you know..it happened lol.

But right now I would keep VA in phase 3. The damage has been done and we can not reverse.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

I also even opposed Virginia moving into Phase 3 because I feared a huge spike in cases.. and what do you know..it happened lol.

But right now I would keep VA in phase 3. The damage has been done and we can not reverse.

Virginia never had a huge spike in cases.  We’ve been well below the national average for cases per capita since early June. 

But it’s actually been a bit of a problem, in that Virginia has also not seen any decline in cases since then.  We’ve been stuck around 1,000 new cases per day for almost two months.  This is still below the per capita rate of about thirty other states, but it seems to have left the state paralyzed as to which direction we should be moving.

[Roll Roons]

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/fauci-predicts-safe-effective-coronavirus-vaccine-end-year-n1239055

Music to my freaking ears.

[Del Tachi]

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/fauci-predicts-safe-effective-coronavirus-vaccine-end-year-n1239055

Music to my freaking ears.

Moderna or Pfizer announcing a vaccine (to much fanfare) is going to be 2020's
"October Surprise"

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/WHO13news/status/1301194395606228992?s=20

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/fauci-predicts-safe-effective-coronavirus-vaccine-end-year-n1239055

Music to my freaking ears.

Moderna or Pfizer announcing a vaccine (to much fanfare) is going to be 2020's
"October Surprise"

What exactly does it mean to "announce a vaccine"?

You mean general FDA approval?  I think that's pretty unlikely by October.
They may be able to release some preliminary Phase III trial results by then, but these will be pretty inscrutable to the general public.

[Del Tachi]

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/fauci-predicts-safe-effective-coronavirus-vaccine-end-year-n1239055

Music to my freaking ears.

Moderna or Pfizer announcing a vaccine (to much fanfare) is going to be 2020's
"October Surprise"

What exactly does it mean to "announce a vaccine"?

You mean general FDA approval?  I think that's pretty unlikely by October.
They may be able to release some preliminary Phase III trial results by then, but these will be pretty inscrutable to the general public.

If big pharma wants Trump to win, they'll find a way to really juice the PR machine re: vaccine progress around the end of October

[It’s so Joever]

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/fauci-predicts-safe-effective-coronavirus-vaccine-end-year-n1239055

Music to my freaking ears.

Moderna or Pfizer announcing a vaccine (to much fanfare) is going to be 2020's
"October Surprise"

What exactly does it mean to "announce a vaccine"?

You mean general FDA approval?  I think that's pretty unlikely by October.
They may be able to release some preliminary Phase III trial results by then, but these will be pretty inscrutable to the general public.

Eh, it’s certainly possible one of the vaccines gets emergency approval in October.
It wouldn’t mean you could get the shot and go back to normal by then, but it may be used in a few healthcare workers.

[Pericles]

I also even opposed Virginia moving into Phase 3 because I feared a huge spike in cases.. and what do you know..it happened lol.

But right now I would keep VA in phase 3. The damage has been done and we can not reverse.

Virginia never had a huge spike in cases.  We’ve been well below the national average for cases per capita since early June. 

But it’s actually been a bit of a problem, in that Virginia has also not seen any decline in cases since then.  We’ve been stuck around 1,000 new cases per day for almost two months.  This is still below the per capita rate of about thirty other states, but it seems to have left the state paralyzed as to which direction we should be moving.

Virginia's numbers are actually pretty bad, but the bar is set so low by the response in other US states, so it wasn't Florida-levels of awful numbers.

[Meclazine for Israel]

Because you have multiple strains, keep in mind you are looking at multiple vaccines.

So in order to travel in 2021, you will most likely need to have two to three vaccination certificates in your passport.

[emailking]

CDC documents say states should prepare to distribute Covid-19 vaccines as soon as late October

The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has told public health officials around the United States to prepare to distribute a potential coronavirus vaccine as soon as late October. It also provided planning scenarios to help states prepare.

The documents were posted by The New York Times and the CDC confirmed to CNN it has sent them to city and state public health officials.

The scenarios offer details about distribution for two Covid-19 vaccines when supplies "may be constrained." The documents prioritize particular populations for the vaccines, including health care professionals, essential workers, long-term care facility residents and staff and national security populations.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/09/02/health/cdc-covid-19-vaccine-distribution/index.html

[It’s so Joever]

Because you have multiple strains, keep in mind you are looking at multiple vaccines.

So in order to travel in 2021, you will most likely need to have two to three vaccination certificates in your passport.

How genetically different would the strains have to be to necessitate multiple vaccines?

[Dr. Arch]

The updated numbers for COVID-19 in the U.S. are in for 9/2 per: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

I'm keeping track of these updates daily and updating at the end of the day, whenever all states finish reporting for that day.

New - Substituting the Δ Change metric as of 7/13 on dates starting from 7/5:
ΔW Change: Comparisons of Weekly Day-to-day Growth or Decline of COVID-19 Spread/Deaths.

• IE: Comparing the numbers to the same day of last week, are we flattening the curve enough?

Σ Increase: A day's contribution to overall percentage growth of COVID-19 cases/deaths.

• IE: What's the overall change in the total?

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<Last Numbers from 8/16-8/22 in this Post>

8/23: <Sunday>

• Cases: 5,874,146 (+32,718| ΔW Change: ↓11.20% | Σ Increase: ↑0.56%)
• Deaths: 180,604 (+430 | ΔW Change: ↓17.62% | Σ Increase: ↑0.24%)

8/24: <M>

• Cases: 5,915,630 (+41,484| ΔW Change: ↓8.62% | Σ Increase: ↑0.71%)
• Deaths: 181,114 (+510 | ΔW Change: ↓13.27% | Σ Increase: ↑0.28%)

8/25: <T>

• Cases: 5,955,728 (+40,098| ΔW Change: ↓8.76% | Σ Increase: ↑0.68%)
• Deaths: 182,404 (+1,290 | ΔW Change: ↓5.01% | Σ Increase: ↑0.71%)

8/26: <W>

• Cases: 6,000,365 (+44,637| ΔW Change: ↓0.71% | Σ Increase: ↑0.75%)
• Deaths: 183,653 (+1,249 | ΔW Change: ↓1.11% | Σ Increase: ↑0.68%)

8/27: <Þ>

• Cases: 6,046,634 (+46,269| ΔW Change: ↑2.05% | Σ Increase: ↑0.77%)
• Deaths: 184,796 (+1,143 | ΔW Change: ↑5.15% | Σ Increase: ↑0.62%)

8/28: <F>

• Cases: 6,096,235 (+49,601| ΔW Change: ↓1.69% | Σ Increase: ↑0.82%)
• Deaths: 185,901 (+1,105 | ΔW Change: ↓37.78% | Σ Increase: ↑0.60%)

8/29: <S>

• Cases: 6,139,078 (+42,843| ΔW Change: ↓4.16% | Σ Increase: ↑0.70%)
• Deaths: 186,855 (+954 | ΔW Change: ↓2.05% | Σ Increase: ↑0.51%)

8/30: <Sunday>

• Cases: 6,173,236 (+34,158| ΔW Change: ↑4.40% | Σ Increase: ↑0.56%)
• Deaths: 187,224 (+369 | ΔW Change: ↓14.19% | Σ Increase: ↑0.20%)

8/31: <M>

• Cases: 6,211,682 (+38,446| ΔW Change: ↓7.32% | Σ Increase: ↑0.62%)
• Deaths: 187,736 (+512 | ΔW Change: ↑0.39% | Σ Increase: ↑0.27%)

9/1 (Yesterday): <T>

• Cases: 6,257,571 (+45,889| ΔW Change: ↑14.44% | Σ Increase: ↑0.74%)
• Deaths: 188,900 (+1,164 | ΔW Change: ↓9.77% | Σ Increase: ↑0.62%)

9/2 (Today): <W>

• Cases: 6,290,737 (+33,166| ΔW Change: ↓25.70% | Σ Increase: ↑0.53%)
• Deaths: 189,964 (+1,064 | ΔW Change: ↓14.81% | Σ Increase: ↑0.56%)

[woodley park]

The updated numbers for COVID-19 in the U.S. are in for 9/2 per: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

I'm keeping track of these updates daily and updating at the end of the day, whenever all states finish reporting for that day.

New - Substituting the Δ Change metric as of 7/13 on dates starting from 7/5:
ΔW Change: Comparisons of Weekly Day-to-day Growth or Decline of COVID-19 Spread/Deaths.

• IE: Comparing the numbers to the same day of last week, are we flattening the curve enough?

Σ Increase: A day's contribution to overall percentage growth of COVID-19 cases/deaths.

• IE: What's the overall change in the total?

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<Last Numbers for 3/26-3/28 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 3/29-4/4 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 4/5-4/11 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 4/12-4/18 in this Post>
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<Last Numbers from 8/2-8/8 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 8/9-8/15 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 8/16-8/22 in this Post>

8/23: <Sunday>

• Cases: 5,874,146 (+32,718| ΔW Change: ↓11.20% | Σ Increase: ↑0.56%)
• Deaths: 180,604 (+430 | ΔW Change: ↓17.62% | Σ Increase: ↑0.24%)

8/24: <M>

• Cases: 5,915,630 (+41,484| ΔW Change: ↓8.62% | Σ Increase: ↑0.71%)
• Deaths: 181,114 (+510 | ΔW Change: ↓13.27% | Σ Increase: ↑0.28%)

8/25: <T>

• Cases: 5,955,728 (+40,098| ΔW Change: ↓8.76% | Σ Increase: ↑0.68%)
• Deaths: 182,404 (+1,290 | ΔW Change: ↓5.01% | Σ Increase: ↑0.71%)

8/26: <W>

• Cases: 6,000,365 (+44,637| ΔW Change: ↓0.71% | Σ Increase: ↑0.75%)
• Deaths: 183,653 (+1,249 | ΔW Change: ↓1.11% | Σ Increase: ↑0.68%)

8/27: <Þ>

• Cases: 6,046,634 (+46,269| ΔW Change: ↑2.05% | Σ Increase: ↑0.77%)
• Deaths: 184,796 (+1,143 | ΔW Change: ↑5.15% | Σ Increase: ↑0.62%)

8/28: <F>

• Cases: 6,096,235 (+49,601| ΔW Change: ↓1.69% | Σ Increase: ↑0.82%)
• Deaths: 185,901 (+1,105 | ΔW Change: ↓37.78% | Σ Increase: ↑0.60%)

8/29: <S>

• Cases: 6,139,078 (+42,843| ΔW Change: ↓4.16% | Σ Increase: ↑0.70%)
• Deaths: 186,855 (+954 | ΔW Change: ↓2.05% | Σ Increase: ↑0.51%)

8/30: <Sunday>

• Cases: 6,173,236 (+34,158| ΔW Change: ↑4.40% | Σ Increase: ↑0.56%)
• Deaths: 187,224 (+369 | ΔW Change: ↓14.19% | Σ Increase: ↑0.20%)

8/31: <M>

• Cases: 6,211,682 (+38,446| ΔW Change: ↓7.32% | Σ Increase: ↑0.62%)
• Deaths: 187,736 (+512 | ΔW Change: ↑0.39% | Σ Increase: ↑0.27%)

9/1 (Yesterday): <T>

• Cases: 6,257,571 (+45,889| ΔW Change: ↑14.44% | Σ Increase: ↑0.74%)
• Deaths: 188,900 (+1,164 | ΔW Change: ↓9.77% | Σ Increase: ↑0.62%)

9/2 (Today): <W>

• Cases: 6,290,737 (+33,166| ΔW Change: ↓25.70% | Σ Increase: ↑0.53%)
• Deaths: 189,964 (+1,064 | ΔW Change: ↓14.81% | Σ Increase: ↑0.56%)

So can we characterize deaths as trending down now, or are we likely just on a plateau?