COVID-19 Megathread 6: Return of the Omicron

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https://twitter.com/GovMikeDeWine/status/1291412472436592650

Holy crap

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‘Horrifying’ data glitch skews key Iowa coronavirus metrics

The glitch means the Iowa Department of Public Health has inadvertently been reporting fewer new infections and a smaller percentage of daily positive tests than is truly the case, according to Dana Jones, an Iowa City nurse practitioner who uncovered the problem. It’s particularly significant because school districts are relying on state data to determine whether they will offer in-person instruction when school resumes in the coming days and weeks.

The glitch means the Iowa Department of Public Health has inadvertently been reporting fewer new infections and a smaller percentage of daily positive tests than is truly the case, according to Dana Jones, an Iowa City nurse practitioner who uncovered the problem. It’s particularly significant because school districts are relying on state data to determine whether they will offer in-person instruction when school resumes in the coming days and weeks.

But the state has yet to publicly announce the error. Amy McCoy, a spokeswoman for the public health department, told the Associated Press that she hoped to have more information about the issue soon.

There is something about that state and technology mishaps.

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Any thoughts on the announcement regarding convalescent plasma?

Hasn't it been in use for quite some time?

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https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/fauci-predicts-safe-effective-coronavirus-vaccine-end-year-n1239055

Music to my freaking ears.

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Chris Christie has left the hospital, according to Twitter, presumably on his own two feet.

Good to hear. At one point, there were (false) Twitter rumors that he'd been put on a ventilator.

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It's fairly clear that the virus is going completely out of control. Something has to be done soon.

But what? Everything we've done thus far has failed.

Well, honestly, I don't know at this point. It's above my pay grade, but an unchecked pandemic will lead to massive deaths.

At least shut down indoor dining and bars. Every bit of evidence I have seen suggests that is the most dangerous public activity going on.

Indoor dining has been going on for months here in DC, and aside from the Rose Garden event, there's never been a massive spike in cases.

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Despite the recent horrific trends, it appears that the end is in sight: https://www.cnn.com/2020/11/09/health/pfizer-covid-19-vaccine-effective/index.html

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https://www.politico.com/news/2020/11/11/moderna-to-reveal-covid-vaccine-data-436113

Moderna will be releasing vaccine trial data in the next couple days, and Fauci thinks it might be just as effective as Pfizer. The US has already bought 100 million doses.

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I wonder whether vaccine will still be free to everybody under a Biden Administration or whether Republicans in congress will all of a sudden rediscover their fiscal discipline and tell President Biden, it would be too expensive after Trump blew the deficit big time?

 The vaccine has to be free or the general public will not take it. There is a policy doctor who actually wants to pay people to take it so we have widespread adoption. Right now I read that the rich and "VIPs" in entertainment and finance have been actively contacting Pfizer and Moderna to be first in line for  the vaccine doses available. But in the general population there is a lot of skepticism about the vaccine especially since the vaccine is so new for a disease that has been so politicized.

Honestly wouldn't be surprised if Bill Gates and/or Mike Bloomberg pay for its distribution.

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Boom: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/11/health/pfizer-vaccine-authorized.html?action=click&module=Top%20Stories&pgtype=Homepage

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So now the Pfizer vaccine has been approved and will be distributed starting this week, with Moderna likely to follow suit on the 17th. How soon before we see a real effect?

[Roll Roons]

So now the Pfizer vaccine has been approved and will be distributed starting this week, with Moderna likely to follow suit on the 17th. How soon before we see a real effect?

This is good to hear. But I suspect it will be at least 5-6 months before we start to see an impact from the vaccine's dissemination. Obviously, medical workers, high-risk and elderly patients, and essential workers will receive the vaccine first before the remainder of the population.

5-6 months??? Maybe 5-6 weeks.  It really depends how we end up prioritizing the elderly.  But just vaccinating the most vulnerable 20% of the population should reduce deaths by at least 90%.

Pretty sure they're the top priority, along with healthcare workers.

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I do wonder if smaller doses would be effective in younger people but of course that would need to be studied more. I get my second dose tomorrow, first dose went ok outside of some chills and of course the sore arm. I don't agree with the one dose idea though, especially with the older population whose immune system is not as robust as a younger people. Two full doses are critical for that population.

It is amazing to see what has happened with Covid up here, we were in a meltdown just prior to Thanksgiving and now there are hardly more than 10 active covid patients in a hospital that had over 200 at our peak that I work at.

Some restrictions will be loosening here, mask mandate still in place though.

Glad it's gotten so much better. Wonder what happened, since it seems like there was improvement even before the vaccine got distributed.

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https://twitter.com/vmsalama/status/1351306939091836929

But he won't be president on January 26...

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Will the peak of the entire pandemic be on Jan 11th? (according to worldometers, 7-day average)

Let’s sincerely hope so. Though with vaccines being distributed and Johnson & Johnson likely to come soon, there's a good chance it was.

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I hate to say it but they should be aiming at 4 to 5 million vaccinations a day, at least. Negotiating between 1 million and 1.5 million a day is too slow. The more time you give this virus to be out there, the faster new variants will develop. That's why you need "Shock and Awe" to beat it back as fast as possible.

I'm still confused about whether Biden's goal is 100 million people vaccinated in 100 days or 100 doses (i.e. 50 million people) in 100 days.  

If it's the latter, that is way too slow, and we are already exceeding that number.  The former number should probably be our realistic goal, at least until more vaccines are approved in the US.

I believe we have contracts with Pfizer and Moderna for 200 million doses each to be fulfilled by July in regular increments.  This works out to about 200 million people in 200 days, which should be a large enough portion of the adult population to achieve herd immunity.  

I'm not sure it is possible for Moderna or Pfizer to produce more than they are already doing, and even they could do this, I'm not sure it would make sense to prioritize selling additional doses to the US compared to other parts of the world anyway.

I would think it's the former goal. Also Johnson & Johnson could be a game changer.

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https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/28/nyregion/nursing-home-deaths-cuomo.html?referringSource=articleShare

Lock him up!

Really though, this is terrible

How did this dude get an emmy for his handling of COVID? Cuomo should resign as gov.

It's a disgrace. An absolute disgrace. And writing a book when the pandemic wasn't close to over?
An egomaniac of the highest degree. If he had any self awareness he'd resign.

Wow. I think this is the kind of thing that could give the right Republican an opening.

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The updated numbers for COVID-19 in the U.S. are in for 1/30 per: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

I'm keeping track of these updates daily and updating at the end of the day, whenever all states finish reporting for that day.

ΔW Change: Comparisons of Weekly Day-to-day Growth or Decline of COVID-19 Spread/Deaths.

• IE: Comparing the numbers to the same day of last week, are we flattening the curve enough?

Σ Increase: A day's contribution to overall percentage growth of COVID-19 cases/deaths.

• IE: What's the overall change in the total?

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1/24: <Sunday>

• Cases: 25,702,125 (+135,336 | ΔW Change: ↓23.11% | Σ Increase: ↑0.53%)
• Deaths: 429,490 (+1,855 | ΔW Change: ↓4.43% | Σ Increase: ↑0.43%)

1/25: <M>

• Cases: 25,861,597 (+159,472 | ΔW Change: ↑10.49% | Σ Increase: ↑0.62%)
• Deaths: 431,392 (+1,902 | ΔW Change: ↑34.13% | Σ Increase: ↑0.44%)

1/26: <T>

• Cases: 26,011,222 (+149,625 | ΔW Change: ↓17.15% | Σ Increase: ↑0.58%)
• Deaths: 435,452 (+4,060 | ΔW Change: ↑41.66% | Σ Increase: ↑0.94%)

1/27: <W>

• Cases: 26,166,201 (+154,979 | ΔW Change: ↓19.29% | Σ Increase: ↑0.60%)
• Deaths: 439,517 (+4,065 | ΔW Change: ↓7.78% | Σ Increase: ↑0.93%)

1/28: <Þ>

• Cases: 26,338,607 (+172,406 | ΔW Change: ↓12.53% | Σ Increase: ↑0.66%)
• Deaths: 443,769 (+4,252 | ΔW Change: ↓3.17% | Σ Increase: ↑0.97%)

1/29: <F>

• Cases: 26,512,193 (+173,586 | ΔW Change: ↓10.50% | Σ Increase: ↑0.66%)
• Deaths: 447,459 (+3,690 | ΔW Change: ↓5.19% | Σ Increase: ↑0.83%)

1/30 (Yesterday): <S>

• Cases: 26,665,740 (+153,547 | ΔW Change: ↓13.13% | Σ Increase: ↑0.58%)
• Deaths: 450,381 (+2,922 | ΔW Change: ↓15.50% | Σ Increase: ↑0.65%)

1/31 (Today): <Sunday>

• Cases: 26,767,229 (+101,489 | ΔW Change: ↓25.01% | Σ Increase: ↑0.38%)
• Deaths: 452,279 (+1,898 | ΔW Change: ↑2.32% | Σ Increase: ↑0.42%)

101,489 is probably the lowest number of cases since October. I fear it is the calm before the storm however, and feel that case might jump to 100 times that in a few weeks once the new variants and reinfections increase.

I certainly believe that there may be another spike, but thinking that it might reach anything like 10 million cases a day (100 times 100,000) is way beyond absurd.  You may wish to look into meditation or other calming techniques.

He's a troll. If there is another spike, it will certainly not be nearly as bad as the recent one. Considering the vaccine rollout, I'm doubtful there'll be one at all.

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I'm seeing a lot of people on twitter showing place in Florida that are completely open, no one wearing a mask, etc and then justifying it by showing places with universal mask mandates and huge restrictions (IL/NY) that have the same exact death rate per capita.

It really is insane how the letter next to your governors name determines what type of life you live these days.

More your Governor's personality than anything else.

Life in Colorado or Virginia is far closer to life in Florida than it is to life in NY/CA.

Ehhh...Virginia isn’t super opened up is it?
My cousins in VA were still online and it seems more people take it seriously there from the few anecdotes I have heard.
(they live in suburban Richmond)
Maybe I’m wrong.

They seem to be keeping a close eye on the metrics and still have some restrictions, but most things are open at full capacity. Mask mandates are still in place, but they look a lot closer to a true "new normal" than the Forever Lockdowns.

Are they? I thought schools were still closed there. And frankly, I won't see things as completely normal until big events (full capacity sporting events, festivals) are back on.

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I think we're pretty deep in herd immunity territory already. Big Horn County is one of few places in Montana that's had a lot of cases. It had a very high number until very recently. But now on the New York Times map, it's had no recent cases - at all. None.

In certain places, probably. It seems like the Dakotas have gotten close to it. Their case numbers peaked in mid-November (well before the first vaccine was approved) and have been declining ever since.

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I think Texas and Mississippi were probably too quick to remove restrictions, but when is the right time to lift them? It seems like the virus won't be truly eradicated and we'll have to live with it like the flu.

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Connecticut taking big steps in reopening:
https://twitter.com/Bogs4NY/status/1367584576944689154

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CDC: Vaccinated people can meet up indoors without masks

https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/542101-cdc-vaccinated-people-can-safely-gather-indoors-without-masks?fbclid=IwAR0EQTQhLHe8oFcN2DhmVG3SmVDHVAg5CzzMobHeMq5UACr3Hp8f0iCPBGc

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2022 is going to feel so weird, because it will be the year everything is finally returned to "normal". Although the handshake is probably dead and masks might just become a regular fashion thing.

Thank you, President Biden.

Way earlier than that. Probably this summer.

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And the world's smallest violin plays.