COVID-19 Megathread 6: Return of the Omicron

[Inmate Trump]

The extent to which this country has collectively just completely given up on actually suppressing the virus is infuriating. Plateauing at 40-45K new cases per day most days is disastrous and inexcusable.

Trump wants to go with a herd immunity approach.

Which is extremely dangerous and extremely deadly (assuming the current rate of infection, that would mean close to 7 million Americans dead before we reach immunity).

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

The extent to which this country has collectively just completely given up on actually suppressing the virus is infuriating. Plateauing at 40-45K new cases per day most days is disastrous and inexcusable.

Why do you say we’ve given up? 

I see almost eveyone wearing masks virtually everywhere I go now, even outdoors.  We still have no concerts or conventions or big sporting events, and the few restaurants or bars that are open for indoor dining have tables spaced really far apart.  Schools and universities are operating at a fraction of capacity if not completely online. 

Several of these are major disruptions that we’ve been living with for 6 months, and they do seem to have slowed the spread in the vast majority of states.

[Progressive Pessimist]

The extent to which this country has collectively just completely given up on actually suppressing the virus is infuriating. Plateauing at 40-45K new cases per day most days is disastrous and inexcusable.

Trump wants to go with a herd immunity approach.

Which is extremely dangerous and extremely deadly (assuming the current rate of infection, that would mean close to 7 million Americans dead before we reach immunity).

He doesn't have an approach. He is literally just hoping for it to go away as he's wrongly predicted every month since February.

[Dr. Arch]

The updated numbers for COVID-19 in the U.S. are in for 8/31 per: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

I'm keeping track of these updates daily and updating at the end of the day, whenever all states finish reporting for that day.

New - Substituting the Δ Change metric as of 7/13 on dates starting from 7/5:
ΔW Change: Comparisons of Weekly Day-to-day Growth or Decline of COVID-19 Spread/Deaths.

• IE: Comparing the numbers to the same day of last week, are we flattening the curve enough?

Σ Increase: A day's contribution to overall percentage growth of COVID-19 cases/deaths.

• IE: What's the overall change in the total?

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8/23: <Sunday>

• Cases: 5,874,146 (+32,718| ΔW Change: ↓11.20% | Σ Increase: ↑0.56%)
• Deaths: 180,604 (+430 | ΔW Change: ↓17.62% | Σ Increase: ↑0.24%)

8/24: <M>

• Cases: 5,915,630 (+41,484| ΔW Change: ↓8.62% | Σ Increase: ↑0.71%)
• Deaths: 181,114 (+510 | ΔW Change: ↓13.27% | Σ Increase: ↑0.28%)

8/25: <T>

• Cases: 5,955,728 (+40,098| ΔW Change: ↓8.76% | Σ Increase: ↑0.68%)
• Deaths: 182,404 (+1,290 | ΔW Change: ↓5.01% | Σ Increase: ↑0.71%)

8/26: <W>

• Cases: 6,000,365 (+44,637| ΔW Change: ↓0.71% | Σ Increase: ↑0.75%)
• Deaths: 183,653 (+1,249 | ΔW Change: ↓1.11% | Σ Increase: ↑0.68%)

8/27: <Þ>

• Cases: 6,046,634 (+46,269| ΔW Change: ↑2.05% | Σ Increase: ↑0.77%)
• Deaths: 184,796 (+1,143 | ΔW Change: ↑5.15% | Σ Increase: ↑0.62%)

8/28: <F>

• Cases: 6,096,235 (+49,601| ΔW Change: ↓1.69% | Σ Increase: ↑0.82%)
• Deaths: 185,901 (+1,105 | ΔW Change: ↓37.78% | Σ Increase: ↑0.60%)

8/29: <S>

• Cases: 6,139,078 (+42,843| ΔW Change: ↓4.16% | Σ Increase: ↑0.70%)
• Deaths: 186,855 (+954 | ΔW Change: ↓2.05% | Σ Increase: ↑0.51%)

8/30 (Yesterday): <Sunday>

• Cases: 6,173,236 (+34,158| ΔW Change: ↑4.40% | Σ Increase: ↑0.56%)
• Deaths: 187,224 (+369 | ΔW Change: ↓14.19% | Σ Increase: ↑0.20%)

8/31 (Today): <M>

• Cases: 6,211,682 (+38,446| ΔW Change: ↓7.32% | Σ Increase: ↑0.62%)
• Deaths: 187,736 (+512 | ΔW Change: ↑0.39% | Σ Increase: ↑0.27%)

[Calthrina950]

The extent to which this country has collectively just completely given up on actually suppressing the virus is infuriating. Plateauing at 40-45K new cases per day most days is disastrous and inexcusable.

Why do you say we’ve given up?  

I see almost eveyone wearing masks virtually everywhere I go now, even outdoors.  We still have no concerts or conventions or big sporting events, and the few restaurants or bars that are open for indoor dining have tables spaced really far apart.  Schools and universities are operating at a fraction of capacity if not completely online.  

Several of these are major disruptions that we’ve been living with for 6 months, and they do seem to have slowed the spread in the vast majority of states.

Not so much outdoors, but the vast majority-over 90%-of people where I live (Colorado) are wearing masks in public, and that has been true for over a month since Polis issued his mask mandate. Just today, in fact, I had a customer comment to me on how most people seem to be obeying the mask mandate, and I agreed with their conclusion. And I had another customer before that who apologized for not wearing one, stating that they forgot it. So most people have willingly sacrificed in the name of fighting this virus, and this has been going on for half of the year at this point. It's clear that we aren't going to achieve victory on this until the magical vaccine appears, and that could still be months or even years away. It'll be something if January 2021 comes around and masks are still the broad norm.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

The extent to which this country has collectively just completely given up on actually suppressing the virus is infuriating. Plateauing at 40-45K new cases per day most days is disastrous and inexcusable.

Trump wants to go with a herd immunity approach.

Which is extremely dangerous and extremely deadly (assuming the current rate of infection, that would mean close to 7 million Americans dead before we reach immunity).

Is that really it, or is his goal now to just sow as much death and chaos as he can, either to try to wreck the election or just to leave a mess for Biden and taken revenge on a country that is rejecting him?

[Calthrina950]

I had an interesting experience at my job today. I had a customer, who was wearing an anti-Trump shirt, come up to my lane, and complain about maskless customers in the store (of which there were several). She asked if there was any way to report such customers, mentioning Polis' statewide mask mandate. I explained to her my store's policy-that we couldn't deny service to or turn away maskless customers, and told her how the local law enforcement in El Paso County would only respond to tresspassing, not mask violation calls. Fortunately, she was understanding, but said it was a shame that we couldn't, and openly said that the maskless people were "Trump supporters." I just politely nodded and finished her transaction.

The irony of course, is that she's correct. However, many of the Trump supporters are wearing masks or facial coverings, as I've noted previously-I've seen a few wearing "Trump 2020" masks in the store. Another irony is that the very next customer after her, that I dealt with, was maskless (I had two others during the course of the day, and one who had their mask pulled down). Last Friday, Polis extended his mask mandate by another month, so it now expires on September 14. Nevertheless, 90% of people are continuing to obey the order.


 

Adding to this, I saw another customer yesterday who was wearing a Trump hat and was maskless. However, I also saw a customer who was wearing a Trump hat and was masked. So this gives credence to both of the observations which I made here.

[Big Abraham]

I had an interesting experience at my job today. I had a customer, who was wearing an anti-Trump shirt, come up to my lane, and complain about maskless customers in the store (of which there were several). She asked if there was any way to report such customers, mentioning Polis' statewide mask mandate. I explained to her my store's policy-that we couldn't deny service to or turn away maskless customers, and told her how the local law enforcement in El Paso County would only respond to tresspassing, not mask violation calls. Fortunately, she was understanding, but said it was a shame that we couldn't, and openly said that the maskless people were "Trump supporters." I just politely nodded and finished her transaction.

The irony of course, is that she's correct. However, many of the Trump supporters are wearing masks or facial coverings, as I've noted previously-I've seen a few wearing "Trump 2020" masks in the store. Another irony is that the very next customer after her, that I dealt with, was maskless (I had two others during the course of the day, and one who had their mask pulled down). Last Friday, Polis extended his mask mandate by another month, so it now expires on September 14. Nevertheless, 90% of people are continuing to obey the order.


 

Adding to this, I saw another customer yesterday who was wearing a Trump hat and was maskless. However, I also saw another customer who was wearing a Trump heat and was masked. So this gives credence to both of the observations which I made here.

Adding to this, in Wasco, Oregon recently I saw a Trump supporter with a MAGA hat and a "China lied" mask. I also saw a gentleman come in with no mask (or any obvious political attire), and when confronted about it, said that he didn't have to wear one because he had "an exemption", although he showed no difficulty breathing or communicating whatsoever.

[Calthrina950]

I had an interesting experience at my job today. I had a customer, who was wearing an anti-Trump shirt, come up to my lane, and complain about maskless customers in the store (of which there were several). She asked if there was any way to report such customers, mentioning Polis' statewide mask mandate. I explained to her my store's policy-that we couldn't deny service to or turn away maskless customers, and told her how the local law enforcement in El Paso County would only respond to tresspassing, not mask violation calls. Fortunately, she was understanding, but said it was a shame that we couldn't, and openly said that the maskless people were "Trump supporters." I just politely nodded and finished her transaction.

The irony of course, is that she's correct. However, many of the Trump supporters are wearing masks or facial coverings, as I've noted previously-I've seen a few wearing "Trump 2020" masks in the store. Another irony is that the very next customer after her, that I dealt with, was maskless (I had two others during the course of the day, and one who had their mask pulled down). Last Friday, Polis extended his mask mandate by another month, so it now expires on September 14. Nevertheless, 90% of people are continuing to obey the order.


 

Adding to this, I saw another customer yesterday who was wearing a Trump hat and was maskless. However, I also saw another customer who was wearing a Trump heat and was masked. So this gives credence to both of the observations which I made here.

Adding to this, in Wasco, Oregon recently I saw a Trump supporter with a MAGA hat and a "China lied" mask. I also saw a gentleman come in with no mask (or any obvious political attire), and when confronted about it, said that he didn't have to wear one because he had "an exemption", although he showed no difficulty breathing or communicating whatsoever.

Interesting observations. As I noted above, at my workplace we aren't allowed to confront or turn away maskless customers, so I have not seen a scene like this. Apparently though, one of my co-workers asked a customer they were assisting why they weren't wearing a mask, and gave them the spiel (which almost everyone has heard) that "I wear my mask to protect you." The customer responded very negatively and flipped them off for it. But nevertheless, the vast majority of people everywhere it seems are wearing masks or facial coverings at this point; the last poll I saw indicated that something like 86% of Americans (including 95% of Democrats and 75% of Republicans) are doing so now. So it's been clear for months that the anti-maskers lost on the issue.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

It’s such a shame. Virus truthers like Greenline, Averroes and Del Tachi have been barely affected while genuinely good people like PQG, Fuzzy, and Badger have/are suffering. This is why I tell my mother she is crazy for believing in karma.

On a more positive note, vaccine progress is accelerating rapidly. I do fully expect a vaccine to be distributed to at risk groups this year. (And that would be a remarkable scientific milestone)

You should feel really bad about this post. This single issue is not an end-all of all morality. Those three posters are all outstanding people.

[emailking]

Since May I've yet to see someone in the grocery store without a mask, and I'm in a conservative area. Granted I'm never in one for very long. But I wonder why compliance is only 80%+ in your store Calthrina.

[Calthrina950]

Since May I've yet to see someone in the grocery store without a mask, and I'm in a conservative area. Granted I'm never in one for very long. But I wonder why compliance is only 80%+ in your store Calthrina.

It's actually around 90%, as I've noted previously. As you're very well aware, I too live in a solidly Republican and solidly conservative area-I've noted many times the number of customers I've seen wearing Trump gear, which has far outweighed the few customers who've worn anti-Trump or pro-BLM gear. But compliance now is significantly higher than it was before Polis' mask mandate, when the rate of mask-wearing was at around 55% or so.

[Calthrina950]

It’s such a shame. Virus truthers like Greenline, Averroes and Del Tachi have been barely affected while genuinely good people like PQG, Fuzzy, and Badger have/are suffering. This is why I tell my mother she is crazy for believing in karma.

On a more positive note, vaccine progress is accelerating rapidly. I do fully expect a vaccine to be distributed to at risk groups this year. (And that would be a remarkable scientific milestone)

And while it is true that many Americans don’t want to get a vaccine (which I’m actually fine with for now, more supply for me) We aren’t the worst.

This isn’t anything new. Vaccine-phobias tens to be more common in Eastern European countries such as Russia and Poland.

I'd have to disagree with what you say here, in part. Del Tachi revealed on another thread that both of his parents and his sister contracted the virus, and his parents apparently became sick from it. Moreover, he himself got the virus several months ago, but was asymptomatic, and didn't know that he had it until testing positive for antibodies.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Since May I've yet to see someone in the grocery store without a mask, and I'm in a conservative area. Granted I'm never in one for very long. But I wonder why compliance is only 80%+ in your store Calthrina.

I've actually been to convenience stores lately with 0% compliance (including the clerk). This is in a state with a mask order, and at a store chain with a mask order.

But Kroger has more compliance, maybe 60%.

[Person Man]

I don't want to sound like an idiot but if you got the vaccine, would you still be able to carry the virus to others?

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

I don't want to sound like an idiot but if you got the vaccine, would you still be able to carry the virus to others?

Depends on the virus and depends on how many people have been vaccinated. 

Yes, you can be carrier of a virus even after being vaccinated, but the aim is that enough people will be vaccinated in turn so that there are fewer avenues for the virus to spread.

And Forum Lurker, you know I love you, but keep me out of this, please. 

[It’s so Joever]

School update: We are at 20 cases districtwide since reopening two weeks ago(from what I’ve been able to find, it’s probably higher because data is spotty)
2 in my school (although in the separate cohort)
No closures or cohorts going online, although we did get an email from the superintendent asking parents to not send siblings of quarantined kids to school.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/DecoherenceWave/status/1300939069610885121

This is not good.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

https://twitter.com/DecoherenceWave/status/1300939069610885121

This is not good.

But I was told by Kristi Noem we needed to put on our positive pants!

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

https://twitter.com/DecoherenceWave/status/1300939069610885121

This is not good.

The "herd immunity" nonsense is looking even more insane now.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

If herd immunity isn't real, how do we explain the decline in cases in places that were already hit the hardest?

It isn't a strategy. It's just something that's already happened. We can't reverse it now that it's happened already.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/DecoherenceWave/status/1300939069610885121
This is not good.

But I was told by Kristi Noem we needed to put on our positive pants!

Unfortunately, the positive pants are counteracted by the negative knickers.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

If herd immunity isn't real, how do we explain the decline in cases in places that were already hit the hardest?

It isn't a strategy. It's just something that's already happened. We can't reverse it now that it's happened already.

I'm not saying it isn't real, I'm saying don't pretend there aren't *massive* negative consequences when it happens.

[GeorgiaModerate]

If herd immunity isn't real, how do we explain the decline in cases in places that were already hit the hardest?

It isn't a strategy. It's just something that's already happened. We can't reverse it now that it's happened already.

Cyclical cause and effect.  Places that get hit hard go in for more social distancing (whether mandated or not).  Then when cases understandably go down as a result, social distancing relaxes and cases go back up again.  

Herd immunity has not been reached to any significant degree anywhere in the U.S. except possibly the New York City area.

[It’s so Joever]

If herd immunity isn't real, how do we explain the decline in cases in places that were already hit the hardest?

It isn't a strategy. It's just something that's already happened. We can't reverse it now that it's happened already.

Fine I will bite.
So first of all we have not established a lack of herd immunity nor have we established long term herd immunity. That second part is key when people warn herd immunity may not even be a viable strategy. Other coronaviruses only offer temporary resistance. Even SARS showed declining antibody levels. That is the worry.
Now that being said, immunity isn’t a binary thing. Even if antibodies wane (they likely will) T-Cell immunity may still exist which would help prevent severe infection. None of this is really known, but considering people can be infected numerous times with similar viruses, herd immunity as a strategy offers a huge risk for possibly zero reward.
So yes, short term immunity is a thing, and when coupled with a change in behavior, a hard hit place can recover. The question is for how long the immunity will last, and whether a degree of more long term immunity exists.
Now I’m not a doctor nor an immunologist, and if anyone on here is, please correct me if I’m wrong.