PA-SN 2022 megathread: Shrek vs. The Wizard of Oz

[Lognog]

Do we think that Lamb possibly saw his district was getting eliminated or expanded too far into Trump territory for it to be winnable? I was playing around with DRA and I think his district lost the most or almost the most amount of people since 2010.

Honestly even with the west PA vote being split he's really got a good shot. He may be the most electable candidate

[wbrocks67]

Nobody more grateful for this news than Malcolm Kenyatta. Two white dudes from Pittsburgh splitting that vote gives him a real shot to capture not just Philly and the surrounding areas, but a lot of areas that would otherwise have voted for either Lamb or Fetterman like Erie, Lancaster, Lackawanna, etc.

I think Arkoosh might be a dark horse here though. Her fundraising was pretty surprising, she's the only female in the race, and Montco will likely strongly support her.

[brucejoel99]

Lamb will announce next Friday.

Suppose he runs and discovers that moderate-hero Democrats don't play so well in the PA Senate race, and that nobody needs a third Dem obstructionist in Congress, when is the deadline for him to fall back on his old seat where he's actually useful? March 2022?

Mar. 8th is the deadline to file nominating petitions, but he'd have to have circulated them for the House race too if he chose to jump back down into that race, so a de-facto filing deadline here is when they can start being filed on Feb. 15th.

[Blair]

2020 showed that a lot of democratic senate candidates could have benefited from a tough primary- I largely think this is a good thing!

[Epaminondas]

2020 showed that a lot of democratic senate candidates could have benefited from a tough primary- I largely think this is a good thing!

I find this claim intriguing, since every Dem who won a competitive seat in 2020 had cleared the field months beforehand (Hickenlooper, Kelly, Ossoff, Warnock) while the vigorous primaries seats were all lost (Cunningham vs Smith, Greenfield vs Franken, Hegar vs West)

Of 8 competitive seats, only 1 really makes your case (Maine) and Collins' personal brand there make it difficult to infer any course correction for the future.

[TML]

2020 showed that a lot of democratic senate candidates could have benefited from a tough primary- I largely think this is a good thing!

I find this claim intriguing, since every Dem who won a competitive seat in 2020 had cleared the field months beforehand (Hickenlooper, Kelly, Ossoff, Warnock) while the vigorous primaries seats were all lost (Cunningham vs Smith, Greenfield vs Franken, Hegar vs West)

Of 8 competitive seats, only 1 really makes your case (Maine) and Collins' personal brand there make it difficult to infer any course correction for the future.

Actually, the DSCC stacked the deck in favor of people like Gideon, Cunningham, Greenfield, Hegar, McGrath, etc., which gave them inherent advantages over their challengers. Therefore, their primaries weren't actually as competitive as they could have been without establishment intervention.

[Blair]

2020 showed that a lot of democratic senate candidates could have benefited from a tough primary- I largely think this is a good thing!

I find this claim intriguing, since every Dem who won a competitive seat in 2020 had cleared the field months beforehand (Hickenlooper, Kelly, Ossoff, Warnock) while the vigorous primaries seats were all lost (Cunningham vs Smith, Greenfield vs Franken, Hegar vs West)

Of 8 competitive seats, only 1 really makes your case (Maine) and Collins' personal brand there make it difficult to infer any course correction for the future.

Yeah as TML said not only did Greenfield & Cunningham have DSCC support but they also faced rather weak opponents in the primary.

It's a rather cliché example but Obama has frequently said that running against Clinton helped him; it showed he could respond when his campaign faltered & showed he could kill issues like Jeremiah Wright.

As much as I like Fetterman he needs to be tested so he doesn't just get to the general and then proceed to collapse.

[President Johnson]

John Fetterman is really a cool guy:

https://twitter.com/giselefetterman/status/1422710272880427014

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

I honestly think the Democrats' chances of flipping this seat are being underrated. Yeah, the midterms are probably going to lean R overall, but the GOP bench here is just... terrible.

[JMT]

https://twitter.com/conorlambpa/status/1423617173222735876?s=21

[Pheurton Skeurto]

https://twitter.com/conorlambpa/status/1423617173222735876?s=21

Obviously we knew this was coming, but it's pretty annoying seeing it in real life. No more boring white men with recycled establishment talking points in the US Senate. This is the time to rally behind someone who will actually fight for the priorities of working people.

[MT Treasurer]

That’s a lame announcement video, certainly not indicative of a candidate who’s likely to attract a ton of crossover appeal. Much like the R field for OH-SEN, I find the Democrats' bench here (especially Lamb, but also Fetterman) to be fairly unimpressive/overrated, especially given how dominant the two parties have been in their respective states (at the local level, at least). Really think the margins in both races (and most other competitive races, to be fair) will be near-identical to Biden's approval-disapproval spread.

Overall, I think Democrats are being overrated in PA and AZ, slightly underrated in WI and NC, definitely underrated in GA, and somehow both over- and underrated in NH. Don’t even get me started on NV.

[Pheurton Skeurto]

That’s a lame announcement video, certainly not indicative of a candidate who’s likely to attract a ton of crossover appeal. Much like the R field for OH-SEN, I find the Democrats' bench here (especially Lamb, but also Fetterman) to be fairly unimpressive/overrated, especially given how dominant the two parties have been in their respective states (at the local level, at least). Really think the margins in both races (and most other competitive races, to be fair) will be near-identical to Biden's approval-dispproval spread.

You should see the video of the same announcement, but in Spanish. It's major Beto O'Rourke vibes:

https://twitter.com/ConorLambPA/status/1423620140449546243?s=20

[Rookie Yinzer]

Conor Lamb will win the primary and general.

[Skye]

That was a bit underwhelming for an announcement video.

That’s a lame announcement video, certainly not indicative of a candidate who’s likely to attract a ton of crossover appeal. Much like the R field for OH-SEN, I find the Democrats' bench here (especially Lamb, but also Fetterman) to be fairly unimpressive/overrated, especially given how dominant the two parties have been in their respective states (at the local level, at least). Really think the margins in both races (and most other competitive races, to be fair) will be near-identical to Biden's approval-dispproval spread.

You should see the video of the same announcement, but in Spanish. It's major Beto O'Rourke vibes:

https://twitter.com/ConorLambPA/status/1423620140449546243?s=20

Interesting that he chose to produce an ad in Spanish. PA isn't exactly known for having an important bloc of Hispanic voters (maybe in Reading, a few neighborhoods in Philly and a few other towns I'm sure I'm missing at the moment). Hispanic voters are practically non-existent in his District, if I'm not mistaken.

As far as the quality of his Spanish, it's a bit meh. It sounds like Rick Scott's.

[wbrocks67]

Conor Lamb will win the primary and general.

Yeah, at the very least I think a lot of people here are being short-sighted and letting their biases get in the way.

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/conorlambpa/status/1423617173222735876?s=21

Obviously we knew this was coming, but it's pretty annoying seeing it in real life. No more boring white men with recycled establishment talking points in the US Senate. This is the time to rally behind someone who will actually fight for the priorities of working people.

How is Lamb not doing that? I don't see how Lamb, Fetterman, Kenyatta, or Arkoosh are not this type of person? This is just being unnecessarily divisive.

[Sir Mohamed]

Ugh, this is going to be an interesting primary. Still not sure whether it's a good idea for Lamb to open up a competitive seat in the House. Would have been better to run for reelection in my opinion. He'd be a formidable GE candidate and good senator; I'm rooting for Fetterman nevertheless.

[wbrocks67]

Ugh, this is going to be an interesting primary. Still not sure whether it's a good idea for Lamb to open up a competitive seat in the House. Would have been better to run for reelection in my opinion. He'd be a formidable GE candidate and good senator; I'm rooting for Fetterman nevertheless.

It's quite possible his district is destroyed in redistricting, too.

[Pheurton Skeurto]

https://twitter.com/conorlambpa/status/1423617173222735876?s=21

Obviously we knew this was coming, but it's pretty annoying seeing it in real life. No more boring white men with recycled establishment talking points in the US Senate. This is the time to rally behind someone who will actually fight for the priorities of working people.

How is Lamb not doing that? I don't see how Lamb, Fetterman, Kenyatta, or Arkoosh are not this type of person? This is just being unnecessarily divisive.

Lamb is going to toe the party line. Perhaps I was not specific enough in my language--we need someone who will fight beyond just the Democratic Party's agenda. It's good to start with that agenda for sure, but Kenyatta and Fetterman will also support the President's agenda. I want someone who will go further the way that Kenyatta or Fetterman will and Lamb won't. Lamb has even shown token moderate moments by not voting for Pelosi for Speaker, voting against the MORE Act, etc.--I don't buy into the narrative that he would be Sinema 2.0--he would be closer to Bob Casey--but the Senate does not need more token Democrats, especially not from such a crucial state like PA.

Electing folks like Kenyatta and Barnes is infinitely preferable to just putting in another boring cog in the machine. If we're going to move forward as a party and a country, our policies and our candidates ought to as well.

[Citizen (The) Doctor]

On one hand, I generally favor the idea of letting a lot of different voices and perspectives from across the state and party duke it out.

On the other hand, this is going to get messy as hell.

EDIT: Actually this really makes me wish PA had ranked-choice voting.

[Sir Mohamed]

Ugh, this is going to be an interesting primary. Still not sure whether it's a good idea for Lamb to open up a competitive seat in the House. Would have been better to run for reelection in my opinion. He'd be a formidable GE candidate and good senator; I'm rooting for Fetterman nevertheless.

It's quite possible his district is destroyed in redistricting, too.

Correct, though the GOP can't just draw him out with Wolf's veto pen?

[Rookie Yinzer]

Conor Lamb will win the primary and general.

Yeah, at the very least I think a lot of people here are being short-sighted and letting their biases get in the way.

It’s reminding me of when Jon Ossoff announced. He might be “bland” to hyper partisans on Atlas but regular folks will eat his schtick up. He’s inoffensive to white people and is the exact type of white candidate old Black folks love. And when he’s in office he will vote like a mainstream Democrat and will never be the deciding vote that kills any Dem legislation. I’m here for it.

[Badger]

Former Arlen Specter aide Craig Snyder will announce today.

Next year’s race to represent Pennsylvania in the U.S. Senate will help shape the direction of the Republican Party. And Craig Snyder thinks there’s still time to take a sharp turn away from former President Donald Trump.

Snyder, a 60-year-old Republican from Philadelphia and onetime top aide to the late, moderate Sen. Arlen Specter, will announce his candidacy on Wednesday in a race that will help determine control of the Senate.

He’s aiming squarely at the political middle, allying himself with prominent anti-Trump Republicans, and calling for a party reckoning. His slogan: “Not Trumpism. Not Socialism. Common Sense.”

“In the absence of the kind of movement that I’m trying to mobilize, Pennsylvanians are going to end up next November with an unacceptable choice between a MAGA extremist and a woke progressive extremist,” Snyder, a business consultant and lobbyist, said in an interview Monday ahead of his formal announcement.

I don't think positioning oneself as a member of the Romney/Cheney/Kinzinger wing of the party is the way going forward, and besides, didn't Specter get run out of the Republican Party anyways?

Sounds like a vanity run where he will get stomped. I'd be surprised if he hit double digits unless he's literally only the second candidate on the ballot.

[NYSforKennedy2024]

Lamb wins primary and general.