PA-SN 2022 megathread: Shrek vs. The Wizard of Oz

[Rookie Yinzer]

It's funny how many people think Vigilante Shrek has this is in the bag. LOL.

[SnowLabrador]

It's funny how many people think Vigilante Shrek has this is in the bag. LOL.

If "Vigilante Shrek" is Fetterman, I'm not one of them. Pennsylvania being 3 points to the right of the nation + a slightly R-leaning national environment = Parnell winning by up to 5 points.

[Pericles]

It's funny how many people think Vigilante Shrek has this is in the bag. LOL.

If "Vigilante Shrek" is Fetterman, I'm not one of them. Pennsylvania being 3 points to the right of the nation + a slightly R-leaning national environment = Parnell winning by up to 5 points.

I presume he meant in the primary.

[wbrocks67]

It's funny how many people think Vigilante Shrek has this is in the bag. LOL.

If "Vigilante Shrek" is Fetterman, I'm not one of them. Pennsylvania being 3 points to the right of the nation + a slightly R-leaning national environment = Parnell winning by up to 5 points.

omg how many times are you gonna say this

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's funny how many people think Vigilante Shrek has this is in the bag. LOL.

If "Vigilante Shrek" is Fetterman, I'm not one of them. Pennsylvania being 3 points to the right of the nation + a slightly R-leaning national environment = Parnell winning by up to 5 points.

No it's not Biden is at the same Approvals as he was on Election night his Approvals went down from 64% to 50/45% as soon as 1400 stimulus checks ran out

His support went dry in RED SOUTH DUE TO THE COVID VACCINES, RED SOUTH DOESN'T WANT COVID, NOT PA, WI, We are more likely to lose GA than lose WI, due to Runoff

[Pollster]

I think it's entirely possible that we see a repeat here of the KY-SEN 2020 primary in which the national party clearly favored one candidate (Lamb) while the local statewide party clearly favored another.

Fetterman is close with Wolf, the Pittsburgh Dem leadership, and labor groups. Arkoosh is close with Shapiro and the MontCo leadership, Street and Kenyatta both have strong relationships with the Philly machine (much moreso Street, who seems to have the lions' share of state house/local Philly leader support). Lamb on the other hand was an assistant prosecutor before being recruited into the special election by the national party and never had to win a primary as a non-incumbent, so its really unclear how much local relationship building he has done and how much in-state support he can garner.

Arkoosh having the support of big-spending orgs like Emily's List and 314 could complicate this dynamic, but it does seem like it could be easy to paint Lamb as the candidate forced on the state by Washington.

There are then, of course, different powerful factors like region, race, and gender (Arkoosh being the only viable woman in this race is probably a very underrated advantage for her in a party increasingly dominated by female voters).

Noting that nothing here is intended to express my personal opinion and I don't currently have a favorite in this race.

[wbrocks67]

I'm very interested to see where Arkoosh goes. Like I've said, I would love to support her since she's from my home county and it'd be great to have a senator from Montco.

[Meatball Ron]

Fetterman is a Randy Bryce 2.0, a carciture of a working class democrat that all metropolitan democrats think is exactly what they need to win back rural and working class areas due to this aesthetics despite his policy and rethoric being indistrigushable from a normal progressive. and are then suprised when he flops among those voters.

Fetterman's main issue seems to be legal weed which while broadly popular isn't really an important issue that will allow him to make gains among trump voters. He has never run in actual competitive election beyond his LG primary where he was the sole western PA canidate against 4 philly canidates and his braddock mayor primary.  Braddock is a town that gave Joe Biden 90% of their vote, so it's hardly any indication of cross-over support.

Connor Lamb on the other hand flipped a trump +20% district against a fairly normal repubclain candidate and won another Trump district by double digits in 2018 an incredibly strong perfomance. Even in 2020 his vote share was higher than Biden showing proof that he is able to win over trump and non-democratic voters, despite his margin being lower due to his republcian opponent outperforming trump.

What? No. No. Silly silly comparison.

Randy Bryce was a multiple times failed candidate who came out of nowhere to challenge the House Speaker, why the Wisconsin Democrats got behind this is beyond me, but he did. His past was thoroughly exposed and he was defeated handily. The problem with Randy Bryce was that he was not a known quantity, yes he was picked up by out of state liberals who saw in him a stereotype of the WWC, thinking he could win back Trump Democrats. But the problem is that he came completely out of left field.

Fetterman is a known quantity, literally the current Lieutenant Governor of a large state, and has statewide campaign experience, and by all accounts is trusted and liked by the state party establishment. While it's true he has no proven electoral edge, the idea that his ideology is indistinguishable from an out of state liberal isn't true either, given John's tack on fracking.There is a cheap, lame attempt to turn John Fetterman into Randy Bryce, fortunately the comparison falls to pieces at the slightest scrutiny.

I think the more important point here is that Fetterman, like Bryce, is a caricature of what Dems in blue states think Trump voters look like, and what they want their politicians to look like. "Wow this guy is big, tatooed, and dresses like an auto mechanic - he can definitely swing Trump voters!" Meanwhile their real strength is actually on Twitter, with the meme crowd. Yes, they obviously have different electoral records, but I think Liberal Hack's point still very much stands.

[KaiserDave]

Fetterman is a Randy Bryce 2.0, a carciture of a working class democrat that all metropolitan democrats think is exactly what they need to win back rural and working class areas due to this aesthetics despite his policy and rethoric being indistrigushable from a normal progressive. and are then suprised when he flops among those voters.

Fetterman's main issue seems to be legal weed which while broadly popular isn't really an important issue that will allow him to make gains among trump voters. He has never run in actual competitive election beyond his LG primary where he was the sole western PA canidate against 4 philly canidates and his braddock mayor primary.  Braddock is a town that gave Joe Biden 90% of their vote, so it's hardly any indication of cross-over support.

Connor Lamb on the other hand flipped a trump +20% district against a fairly normal repubclain candidate and won another Trump district by double digits in 2018 an incredibly strong perfomance. Even in 2020 his vote share was higher than Biden showing proof that he is able to win over trump and non-democratic voters, despite his margin being lower due to his republcian opponent outperforming trump.

What? No. No. Silly silly comparison.

Randy Bryce was a multiple times failed candidate who came out of nowhere to challenge the House Speaker, why the Wisconsin Democrats got behind this is beyond me, but he did. His past was thoroughly exposed and he was defeated handily. The problem with Randy Bryce was that he was not a known quantity, yes he was picked up by out of state liberals who saw in him a stereotype of the WWC, thinking he could win back Trump Democrats. But the problem is that he came completely out of left field.

Fetterman is a known quantity, literally the current Lieutenant Governor of a large state, and has statewide campaign experience, and by all accounts is trusted and liked by the state party establishment. While it's true he has no proven electoral edge, the idea that his ideology is indistinguishable from an out of state liberal isn't true either, given John's tack on fracking.There is a cheap, lame attempt to turn John Fetterman into Randy Bryce, fortunately the comparison falls to pieces at the slightest scrutiny.

I think the more important point here is that Fetterman, like Bryce, is a caricature of what Dems in blue states think Trump voters look like, and what they want their politicians to look like. "Wow this guy is big, tatooed, and dresses like an auto mechanic - he can definitely swing Trump voters!" Meanwhile their real strength is actually on Twitter, with the meme crowd. Yes, they obviously have different electoral records, but I think Liberal Hack's point still very much stands.

I have no idea how "Fetterman's strength is in Twitter" given that he has very real, very important relationships with Allegheny Democrats, labor, and Governor Wolf.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Fetterman is a Randy Bryce 2.0, a carciture of a working class democrat that all metropolitan democrats think is exactly what they need to win back rural and working class areas due to this aesthetics despite his policy and rethoric being indistrigushable from a normal progressive. and are then suprised when he flops among those voters.

Fetterman's main issue seems to be legal weed which while broadly popular isn't really an important issue that will allow him to make gains among trump voters. He has never run in actual competitive election beyond his LG primary where he was the sole western PA canidate against 4 philly canidates and his braddock mayor primary.  Braddock is a town that gave Joe Biden 90% of their vote, so it's hardly any indication of cross-over support.

Connor Lamb on the other hand flipped a trump +20% district against a fairly normal repubclain candidate and won another Trump district by double digits in 2018 an incredibly strong perfomance. Even in 2020 his vote share was higher than Biden showing proof that he is able to win over trump and non-democratic voters, despite his margin being lower due to his republcian opponent outperforming trump.

What? No. No. Silly silly comparison.

Randy Bryce was a multiple times failed candidate who came out of nowhere to challenge the House Speaker, why the Wisconsin Democrats got behind this is beyond me, but he did. His past was thoroughly exposed and he was defeated handily. The problem with Randy Bryce was that he was not a known quantity, yes he was picked up by out of state liberals who saw in him a stereotype of the WWC, thinking he could win back Trump Democrats. But the problem is that he came completely out of left field.

Fetterman is a known quantity, literally the current Lieutenant Governor of a large state, and has statewide campaign experience, and by all accounts is trusted and liked by the state party establishment. While it's true he has no proven electoral edge, the idea that his ideology is indistinguishable from an out of state liberal isn't true either, given John's tack on fracking.There is a cheap, lame attempt to turn John Fetterman into Randy Bryce, fortunately the comparison falls to pieces at the slightest scrutiny.

I think the more important point here is that Fetterman, like Bryce, is a caricature of what Dems in blue states think Trump voters look like, and what they want their politicians to look like. "Wow this guy is big, tatooed, and dresses like an auto mechanic - he can definitely swing Trump voters!" Meanwhile their real strength is actually on Twitter, with the meme crowd. Yes, they obviously have different electoral records, but I think Liberal Hack's point still very much stands.

I have no idea how "Fetterman's strength is in Twitter" given that he has very real, very important relationships with Allegheny Democrats, labor, and Governor Wolf.

Wolf isn’t even making an endorsement and there’s been plenty of talk about Fetterman’s lazy campaign (which had cost him endorsements before Lamb even got in).  As for Allegheny, we’ll see who the Pittsburgh Democratic machine ends up backing at the end of the day.  My money’s on Lamb.  Fetterman obviously isn’t a human dumpster fire like Bryce, but it’s certainly not an unfair or off-base comparison by any stretch of the imagination.  

The odds of Fetterman significantly underperforming in the GE are definitely better than the odds of him over-performing generic D.  And again, fundraising aside, he’s run a pretty crappy campaign so far.  While I wouldn’t put money on it, it’s not even hard to imagine a scenario where Arkoosh or even Kenyatta becomes the strongest anti-Lamb candidate and Fetterman kinda just fizzles out.

[Orser67]

There are then, of course, different powerful factors like region, race, and gender (Arkoosh being the only viable woman in this race is probably a very underrated advantage for her in a party increasingly dominated by female voters).

Agreed, Arkoosh probably gets less national attention than other candidates in the race, but she has some potentially strong demographic and geographical advantages, especially if the other SEPA candidates either fall flat or fail to gain much traction outside of Philadelphia. Given demographics, the shift of the Philadelphia suburbs towards Dems, and the shift of western PA towards Republicans, it may be hard for any Pittsburgh-based candidate to win going forward unless they benefit from a divided field while at the same time consolidating their own base of support (as Fetterman did in 2018).

[President Johnson]

I would guess Lamb's strategy to win in a general election is trying to appeal to some more conservative voters or a bunch of Trump voters. Fetterman meanwhile is probably better suited to turn out new voters, especially younger voters although he may also appeal to populists.

While both would make a decent senator, I'm rooting for Fetterman because he's a rational progressive and offering a positive contrast to certain Squad members. The progressive wing needs representation through people like him. Also, I think he sincerely cares about improving conditions in distressed areas and could really be a voice for these communities.

I would bet Lamb's general election strategy would actually be more about absolutely running up the score in the suburbs, and keeping rural / Trump voter performance at Biden levels.

Curious what you mean by Fetterman offering a contrast to squad members / progressives needing representation through "people like him"?

Fetterman strikes me as someone who stays away from toxic culture war debates like "defund the police" and mainly focuses on economic inequality and good community work. These are issues voters can relate with a proper messager. His own experience and record in Braddock makes him appear sincere and a credible voice on the latter in particular. Fetterman also has refused to attack moderate Democrats in the past and instead emphasized what unites Democrats. I think he's an integrating figure, what would allow him to actually work on problems once elected senator and not just hang around for publicity stunts. That's why I hope he wins the primary and the general election.

[Meatball Ron]

I would guess Lamb's strategy to win in a general election is trying to appeal to some more conservative voters or a bunch of Trump voters. Fetterman meanwhile is probably better suited to turn out new voters, especially younger voters although he may also appeal to populists.

While both would make a decent senator, I'm rooting for Fetterman because he's a rational progressive and offering a positive contrast to certain Squad members. The progressive wing needs representation through people like him. Also, I think he sincerely cares about improving conditions in distressed areas and could really be a voice for these communities.

I would bet Lamb's general election strategy would actually be more about absolutely running up the score in the suburbs, and keeping rural / Trump voter performance at Biden levels.

Curious what you mean by Fetterman offering a contrast to squad members / progressives needing representation through "people like him"?

Fetterman strikes me as someone who stays away from toxic culture war debates like "defund the police" and mainly focuses on economic inequality and good community work. These are issues voters can relate with a proper messager. His own experience and record in Braddock makes him appear sincere and a credible voice on the latter in particular. Fetterman also has refused to attack moderate Democrats in the past and instead emphasized what unites Democrats. I think he's an integrating figure, what would allow him to actually work on problems once elected senator and not just hang around for publicity stunts. That's why I hope he wins the primary and the general election.

Holding an unarmed black jogger at gunpoint and repeatedly refusing to apologize for it doesn't feel especially "integrating" to me, but your points about his difference from squad members are well-taken.

[_.]

Hopefully a Western Pennsylvania Democrat wins

I don't foresee the two Eastern Pennsylvania Democrats (Kenyatta, Arkoosh) performing well in a general eleciton.

[Horus]

I would guess Lamb's strategy to win in a general election is trying to appeal to some more conservative voters or a bunch of Trump voters. Fetterman meanwhile is probably better suited to turn out new voters, especially younger voters although he may also appeal to populists.

While both would make a decent senator, I'm rooting for Fetterman because he's a rational progressive and offering a positive contrast to certain Squad members. The progressive wing needs representation through people like him. Also, I think he sincerely cares about improving conditions in distressed areas and could really be a voice for these communities.

I would bet Lamb's general election strategy would actually be more about absolutely running up the score in the suburbs, and keeping rural / Trump voter performance at Biden levels.

Curious what you mean by Fetterman offering a contrast to squad members / progressives needing representation through "people like him"?

Fetterman strikes me as someone who stays away from toxic culture war debates like "defund the police" and mainly focuses on economic inequality and good community work. These are issues voters can relate with a proper messager. His own experience and record in Braddock makes him appear sincere and a credible voice on the latter in particular. Fetterman also has refused to attack moderate Democrats in the past and instead emphasized what unites Democrats. I think he's an integrating figure, what would allow him to actually work on problems once elected senator and not just hang around for publicity stunts. That's why I hope he wins the primary and the general election.

Holding an unarmed black jogger at gunpoint and repeatedly refusing to apologize for it doesn't feel especially "integrating" to me, but your points about his difference from squad members are well-taken.

Didn't the jogger endorse him?

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

I hope the dscc stays out of this race but Im not sure. It would be good for Lamb to prove his worth by beating Fetterman in a contested primary.

[Senator-elect Spark]

I Conor Lamb.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I Conor Lamb.

Fetterman and hopefully Ryan whom is running against Josh Mandel and Barnes win, I rather have Keyanetta do t underestimate Keyanetta either

[Meatball Ron]

I would guess Lamb's strategy to win in a general election is trying to appeal to some more conservative voters or a bunch of Trump voters. Fetterman meanwhile is probably better suited to turn out new voters, especially younger voters although he may also appeal to populists.

While both would make a decent senator, I'm rooting for Fetterman because he's a rational progressive and offering a positive contrast to certain Squad members. The progressive wing needs representation through people like him. Also, I think he sincerely cares about improving conditions in distressed areas and could really be a voice for these communities.

I would bet Lamb's general election strategy would actually be more about absolutely running up the score in the suburbs, and keeping rural / Trump voter performance at Biden levels.

Curious what you mean by Fetterman offering a contrast to squad members / progressives needing representation through "people like him"?

Fetterman strikes me as someone who stays away from toxic culture war debates like "defund the police" and mainly focuses on economic inequality and good community work. These are issues voters can relate with a proper messager. His own experience and record in Braddock makes him appear sincere and a credible voice on the latter in particular. Fetterman also has refused to attack moderate Democrats in the past and instead emphasized what unites Democrats. I think he's an integrating figure, what would allow him to actually work on problems once elected senator and not just hang around for publicity stunts. That's why I hope he wins the primary and the general election.

Holding an unarmed black jogger at gunpoint and repeatedly refusing to apologize for it doesn't feel especially "integrating" to me, but your points about his difference from squad members are well-taken.

Didn't the jogger endorse him?

Yes, but just because one person has the capacity for forgiveness doesn't make what he did any less unacceptable. The jogger does not speak for the black community, or anyone but himself. Note that the jogger did not revise his account of the event; he still maintains that Fetterman is lying, but just that he has forgiven him. Would be different if the jogger were revising his story.

[Horus]

I would guess Lamb's strategy to win in a general election is trying to appeal to some more conservative voters or a bunch of Trump voters. Fetterman meanwhile is probably better suited to turn out new voters, especially younger voters although he may also appeal to populists.

While both would make a decent senator, I'm rooting for Fetterman because he's a rational progressive and offering a positive contrast to certain Squad members. The progressive wing needs representation through people like him. Also, I think he sincerely cares about improving conditions in distressed areas and could really be a voice for these communities.

I would bet Lamb's general election strategy would actually be more about absolutely running up the score in the suburbs, and keeping rural / Trump voter performance at Biden levels.

Curious what you mean by Fetterman offering a contrast to squad members / progressives needing representation through "people like him"?

Fetterman strikes me as someone who stays away from toxic culture war debates like "defund the police" and mainly focuses on economic inequality and good community work. These are issues voters can relate with a proper messager. His own experience and record in Braddock makes him appear sincere and a credible voice on the latter in particular. Fetterman also has refused to attack moderate Democrats in the past and instead emphasized what unites Democrats. I think he's an integrating figure, what would allow him to actually work on problems once elected senator and not just hang around for publicity stunts. That's why I hope he wins the primary and the general election.

Holding an unarmed black jogger at gunpoint and repeatedly refusing to apologize for it doesn't feel especially "integrating" to me, but your points about his difference from squad members are well-taken.

Didn't the jogger endorse him?

Yes, but just because one person has the capacity for forgiveness doesn't make what he did any less unacceptable. The jogger does not speak for the black community, or anyone but himself. Note that the jogger did not revise his account of the event; he still maintains that Fetterman is lying, but just that he has forgiven him. Would be different if the jogger were revising his story.

Well, no one person speaks for the Black community. Or the Asian community, or Jewish community, or any other community. So not sure what you mean by that. I just think if the person who was victimized was able to forgive and endorse we should probably move on from the issue. And I say this as someone who has soured on Fetterman.

[Xing]

I think it’s silly to speculate about who would do better in the general, since there’s really no way we’ll ever know. I do think the number of Lamb>Republican>Other Democrats and Fetterman>Republican>Other Democrats voters is greatly exaggerated on this forum. I don’t see it making that much of a difference, barring a huge scandal for one of the candidates. I’d rather it not be Lamb, though.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I want Keyanetta

[Lambsbread]

I want Keyanetta

Me too!

[Meatball Ron]

I would guess Lamb's strategy to win in a general election is trying to appeal to some more conservative voters or a bunch of Trump voters. Fetterman meanwhile is probably better suited to turn out new voters, especially younger voters although he may also appeal to populists.

While both would make a decent senator, I'm rooting for Fetterman because he's a rational progressive and offering a positive contrast to certain Squad members. The progressive wing needs representation through people like him. Also, I think he sincerely cares about improving conditions in distressed areas and could really be a voice for these communities.

I would bet Lamb's general election strategy would actually be more about absolutely running up the score in the suburbs, and keeping rural / Trump voter performance at Biden levels.

Curious what you mean by Fetterman offering a contrast to squad members / progressives needing representation through "people like him"?

Fetterman strikes me as someone who stays away from toxic culture war debates like "defund the police" and mainly focuses on economic inequality and good community work. These are issues voters can relate with a proper messager. His own experience and record in Braddock makes him appear sincere and a credible voice on the latter in particular. Fetterman also has refused to attack moderate Democrats in the past and instead emphasized what unites Democrats. I think he's an integrating figure, what would allow him to actually work on problems once elected senator and not just hang around for publicity stunts. That's why I hope he wins the primary and the general election.

Holding an unarmed black jogger at gunpoint and repeatedly refusing to apologize for it doesn't feel especially "integrating" to me, but your points about his difference from squad members are well-taken.

Didn't the jogger endorse him?

Yes, but just because one person has the capacity for forgiveness doesn't make what he did any less unacceptable. The jogger does not speak for the black community, or anyone but himself. Note that the jogger did not revise his account of the event; he still maintains that Fetterman is lying, but just that he has forgiven him. Would be different if the jogger were revising his story.

Well, no one person speaks for the Black community. Or the Asian community, or Jewish community, or any other community. So not sure what you mean by that. I just think if the person who was victimized was able to forgive and endorse we should probably move on from the issue. And I say this as someone who has soured on Fetterman.

I agree that no one person speaks for any community - which is why I, or any other voter, can still think Fetterman's actions are disqualifying, even if a person involved was not. My bigger problem is that he refuses to apologize which speaks to his character. It's much bigger than any one person's capacity to forgive.

[free my dawg]

I want Keyanetta

I would be fine with Kenyatta as well.

Also very funny to see the #KHive jumping ship from Kenyatta because he praised Cori Bush.