PA-SN 2022 megathread: Shrek vs. The Wizard of Oz

[brucejoel99]

Looks like it's time for the "(maybe)" to be removed from the thread title, because Fetterman's IN:

https://twitter.com/PittsburghPG/status/1357675986817531909

[brucejoel99]

I saw a thumbnail image of Fetterman on YouTube earlier today, and his appearance fits the stereotype of a tough, no nonsense, blue-collar, WWC miner, construction worker, contractor, or factory worker. I don't know that much about his background. Is this why many seem to have such confidence in his capabilities as a candidate for federal or statewide office?

He's got a master of public policy from Harvard and comes from a rich family.

I see, and this doesn't surprise me at all. Many politicians who portray themselves as "WWC populists" actually are not, with Trump himself being the most notorious example of this.

To be fair to the guy, his parents were in poverty (&, not to mention, both literal teenagers) when he was born but his dad opened up a small-business that managed to be successful enough to allow him to grow up in a stable middle-class environment. So, perhaps more privileged than your average member of the WWC, but not exactly screaming 'rich guy faking his understanding of working-class problems in an attempt to endear himself to the working-class for his own political gain' either.

[brucejoel99]

I went to college in Boston and socialized quite a bit with folks at Harvard, and I’m genuinely confused by this “Harvard makes you out of touch with working people” idea. Granted it was quite some time ago, but I found virtually all of them to be genuinely good and well-meaning people, many from modest backgrounds who viewed their place at Harvard as being a big deal for their families and a major reason why they believed their futures would be brighter than their pasts.

I’m sure there were plenty of trust-fund children, legacy admissions, and students outright bribed in, and I’m sure that the cost of education/student loan nonsense of today has changed some things, but it’s broadly generalistic and out of touch in its own right to suggest that a Harvard education makes one unable to understand the issues of working families.

Politics is about perception not reality, Fetterman can be framed as an elitest using things like his Harvard education and reliance on family funds. His politics is also pretty left-wing and leaves him vulnerable to whisper campaigns.

I don't know why people are assuming he's a strong candidate in rural Pennsylvania other than his appearance. He won the LT governor primary when the vote was split between 3 eastern PA canidates.He has no other statewide success and mayor of Braddock was more a social experimenting/philantrophy experiment than something that shows his electoral strenght.

If that's true, then Fetterman is clearly the one to benefit.

Yeah, if the supposed reality is that Fetterman's actually some rich elitist who got a Harvard education & was able to live without an income thanks to money from his rich family, then he's done a great f**king job thus far of ingraining this perception into all of our minds that he's just your run-of-the-mill tough, no-nonsense, blue-collar member of the WWC.

[brucejoel99]

I went to college in Boston and socialized quite a bit with folks at Harvard, and I’m genuinely confused by this “Harvard makes you out of touch with working people” idea. Granted it was quite some time ago, but I found virtually all of them to be genuinely good and well-meaning people, many from modest backgrounds who viewed their place at Harvard as being a big deal for their families and a major reason why they believed their futures would be brighter than their pasts.

I’m sure there were plenty of trust-fund children, legacy admissions, and students outright bribed in, and I’m sure that the cost of education/student loan nonsense of today has changed some things, but it’s broadly generalistic and out of touch in its own right to suggest that a Harvard education makes one unable to understand the issues of working families.

Politics is about perception not reality, Fetterman can be framed as an elitest using things like his Harvard education and reliance on family funds. His politics is also pretty left-wing and leaves him vulnerable to whisper campaigns.

I don't know why people are assuming he's a strong candidate in rural Pennsylvania other than his appearance. He won the LT governor primary when the vote was split between 3 eastern PA canidates.He has no other statewide success and mayor of Braddock was more a social experimenting/philantrophy experiment than something that shows his electoral strenght.

If that's true, then Fetterman is clearly the one to benefit.

Yeah, if the supposed reality is that Fetterman's actually some rich elitist who got a Harvard education & was able to live without an income thanks to money from his rich family, then he's done a great f**king job thus far of ingraining this perception into all of our minds that he's just your run-of-the-mill tough, no-nonsense, blue-collar member of the WWC.

Are you an actual swing voter or somebody from rural PA who voted for Trump ? being loved among partisan democrats doesn't translte into direct appele to trump receptive rural areas of the pensyvania.

Are you? Better yet, are there any actual swing voters you can point to who think Fetterman's a phoney? Are there any actual rural Pennsylvanians you can point to who voted for Trump & who think Fetterman's a phoney? I mean, you can obviously perceive their existence. Otherwise, you wouldn't be arguing that they must exist. So why not show them to us?

Until you or anybody else can do so, you can excuse my lack of worry about a hypothetical attack that's never even been thrown at the guy 'til you had the bright idea to come up with it in this very thread. I mean, after all, if Fetterman's supposedly been open to this line of attack this whole time, then how come nobody ever thought to attack him for it?

[brucejoel99]

You all realise this man chassed down a black man in 2013 with a shotgun because he was jogging right?  Like why are you cheering him on?

Never heard about this, so I googled it: he thought he heard gunshots & saw a masked man in commando-gear running away from the vicinity of where he thought he heard said gunshots coming from, so he immediately called the police & then proceeded to pursue the man - whom, remember, was armed for all Fetterman knew - while armed himself & waiting for the police to arrive, though the whole thing turned out to be a misunderstanding, with the man just happening to have been an unarmed Black jogger.

Certainly not a proud moment or anything, but that's just nowhere near the same thing as deliberately "chas[ing] down a Black man with a shotgun because he was jogging" so much as literally just amounting to basic reasonable suspicion, with his actions given the circumstances of the situation he found himself in being entirely understandable. That is, the guy's race was irrelevant to the circumstances: he could've been white, or Black, or Asian, etc., but what Fetterman saw was a masked guy in commando-gear running away from the scene of what he thought were gunshots, so being suspicious in that situation isn't unreasonable. (Not to mention, he had his 4-year-old son with him too, & given that this was in the immediate aftermath of Sandy Hook, being on-edge about that wouldn't exactly be unforgivable either.)

Based on the totality of the guy's actual political record, which consists of nothing but allyship with POC, the incarcerated, the LGBTQ+ community, women, etc., I'd personally be inclined to agree with those who've analyzed this situation & seemingly been willing to give him the benefit of the doubt, go out on a limb here, & just occam's razor this: "are those gunshots? And is that a masked man in commando-gear running away from where I just heard those gunshots coming from?," not "is that an innocent, unarmed Black man out for a jog? Quick, lemme grab my shotgun so I can chase & intimidate him!!"

[brucejoel99]

You all realise this man chassed down a black man in 2013 with a shotgun because he was jogging right?  Like why are you cheering him on?

You say this without acknowledging that a) he heard gun shots in the area, b) he saw a man running in the opposite direction wearing a face mask and goggles, and c) he never drew the shotgun or pointed it at the man. Without these details, it sounds like he hunts black people for sport, which is the opposite of the truth here.

You know there is also a video right?  which no gunshot can be heard.  And truthfully if that is your first reaction to grab a shotgun and chase someone down I just don't think I can trust you.

This is just not true. The man in question also says that he heard what sounded like gunshots but asserted they were bottle rockets. Also, I couldn't find a video of the incident, closest I could find was a story on local TV (which is where the victim said he heard bottle rockets).

Something something facts, something something feelings.

[brucejoel99]

for all the Fetterman fans, explain the thought process of somebody who voted for Trump in 2016 and 2020 but is likley to support Fetterman ?. Preferably without claiming they're low information or #populists.

I think the best argument is that there are a lot of Obama-Trump voters in places like Erie, Lehigh, Northampton, Luzerne, Lackawanna, etc. that abandoned the party because of the perceived elitism and lack of interest in working class issues. You run a candidate like Joe Biden, someone from NEPA with a history of supporting unions and working class issues, you see what happened this past election--every single one of those counties shifted back towards Democrats. It's also why I think Cartwright would be a good candidate if he were to win the nomination--voters are not strictly ideological or party voters, they want someone that they trust is going to fight for them and be "their voice" as it were. Fetterman's approach from the beginning has been to go to places that Democrats typically abandon and try to talk to voters. I remember his marijuana listening tour was a big hit because he went to all 67 counties and just listened to what people had to say. I went when he came to Lancaster and opinions were divided since we're a more red county, but a lot of folks in places that vote so strongly for one party don't typically get to speak directly to their representatives in a setting like that. I could tell his presence was appreciated. I think that's the long and short of why he could be a good candidate for the GE. Frankly, I think we have a LOT of great candidates for the GE. I wouldn't be upset with any of them (though I would be a bit disappointed if we nominated Lamb) but Fetterman is my preferred candidate for ideological reasons.

Aaaaand now I'm just sitting here with my popcorn, waiting for a Liberal Hack response to this high-quality post.

[brucejoel99]

See they've already begun messaging against Fetterman to paint him as an out of touch elitest.

https://twitter.com/RyanCostello/status/1361434448525463555?s=19

3+ hours & only 63 likes? I'm already shaking in my boots because of just how effective this messaging is proving to be.

(/s if it wasn't painfully obvious)

[brucejoel99]

See they've already begun messaging against Fetterman to paint him as an out of touch elitest.

https://twitter.com/RyanCostello/status/1361434448525463555?s=19

3+ hours & only 63 likes? I'm already shaking in my boots because of just how effective this messaging is proving to be.

(/s if it wasn't painfully obvious)

Remember he's still undefined, they'll be running ads in WWC communities slamming him for being pro-open borders, woke and from a rich family allowing with accusing him of dishoney in his image

Everybody on Atlas: "Fetterman has cultivated an image of somebody in touch with the concerns of WWC communities."

IBNU: "bUt He'S uNdEfInEd"

[brucejoel99]

Not sure why Lamb is being derided as some fake Democrat, he has come thru every single time he was needed.

Obviously wouldn't go that far, I personally just don't like the idea of having to elect yet another Democratic Senator (after the likes of Manchin & Sinema) who even have to "come through" in the 1st place when it's quite possible that we could just as easily win this seat with somebody who's just willing to go with the party-line flow whenever necessary like Gen. Eric Democrat.

[brucejoel99]

Shapiro out:

https://twitter.com/ElectionCenter_/status/1362139784001376256

Yeah, because he's running for Governor

As an old joke goes, A.G. actually stands for Almost Governor.

[brucejoel99]

2 candidates who'd both be considered good (if not great) picks - in addition to NC already having 2 candidates who are both better options than our 2020 nominee even pre-scandal - make for an abundance of riches. IIRC, somebody once said that the quality of recruits is an early barometer as to what the environment might turn out to be in the next election. If so, then collectively speaking, the good recruits with smart people & money behind them would imply that 2022's gonna turn out to be a good cycle for us.

Also not gonna lie, wouldn't be surprised to see a seemingly lower-tier figure like Kenyatta (a State Rep. compared to other candidates & potential candidates like the Lt. Gov & multiple congressmen) somehow sneak up through the middle a-la Braun & Feingold before him in the event that the top 2-3 frontrunners end up being individuals like Fetterman, Lamb, Cartwright, etc. who all inevitably focus their attention on each other rather than everyone across the whole field.

[brucejoel99]

Endorsements are flooding in for Malcolm. The PA Working Families Party has already endorsed him. I’m very excited to see him running, truth be told. If we had RCV, he’d be my second preference easily. I think we are in really good hands here in PA.

How do you peg the odds of Lamb, Houlahan, Wild, Dean getting in (each one individually)?

Lamb is very likely to get in. If he has been talking to Schumer already and has publicly admitted he’s thinking about it, then it would truly surprise me if he decided not to. He fills the moderate lane and knows he has the profile to win statewide if the progressive vote splits.

Wait, I thought he said (when he was publicly admitting his thinking about it, no less) he hadn't talked to Schumer yet?

[brucejoel99]

It’s not like Sinema has ever “sabotaged” the Democratic agenda either.

I'm gonna hard disagree here. Her weird obsession for maintaining the filibuster has absolutely hindered Democratic policy goals. Plus, she has killed using reconciliation for increasing the minimum wage. Manchin has done these as well, but he's the best we'll ever get out of WV. Sinema doesn't need to be as conservative as she is to win, Mark Kelly has shown that.

I'd wait 'til she casts legitimate votes on the Senate floor to maintain the filibuster &/or keep the minimum wage out of the reconciliation package before asserting these statements as if they're pure fact. 'Til she's done so, there's frankly no reason to believe that what she's doing hasn't just been a bunch of Manchin-esque kabuki theater.

[brucejoel99]

If you thought Markey vs. Kennedy was ugly, Kenyatta vs. Fetterman is just getting started (have fun with that, PA Dems):

https://twitter.com/malcolmkenyatta/status/1364290274852294656

[brucejoel99]

If you thought Markey vs. Kennedy was ugly, Kenyatta vs. Fetterman is just getting started (have fun with that, PA Dems):

https://twitter.com/malcolmkenyatta/status/1364290274852294656

Oh boy this is gonna be gross.

And best-case scenario, all it does is result in Sen. Conor Lamb (Sinema Democrat-PA).

[brucejoel99]

If you thought Markey vs. Kennedy was ugly, Kenyatta vs. Fetterman is just getting started (have fun with that, PA Dems):

https://twitter.com/malcolmkenyatta/status/1364290274852294656

Apparently the context is that it's been a year since Ahmaud Arbery's murder, but Kenyetta isn't stupid.

On any other day it would clearly be an attack on Fetterman, but today it can be read two ways. Shrewd move by Kenyatta.

Glad I’m not the only person who picked up on this. It’s obvious that this is about Ahmaud Arbery but could be read as a double entendre.

Yeah, the fact that he still led with "jog" & left the explicit Arbery reference for a separate tweet makes it not at all hard to see what he's nodding at here, which I frankly don't fault him for in any event: that's the name of the game, after all. But still, it's very obvious.

[brucejoel99]

This would potentially make 3 SEPA candidates vs Fetterman.

Would this actually be good for Fetterman in the end? As in, is a modern-day Democratic primary really likely to end up dividing geographically/regionally rather than ideologically?

[brucejoel99]

I see Kenyatta is going with the "Fetterman is racist" strategy 🙄

He was talking about Ahmaud Arbery. Y'all are so pressed to find a reason to disqualify Kenyatta. LOL. All the excuses in the world for Fetterman but won't give Kenyatta the benefit of the doubt.

I'll just go ahead & bump this, as if it wasn't already posted in this very thread for everybody to see:

If you thought Markey vs. Kennedy was ugly, Kenyatta vs. Fetterman is just getting started (have fun with that, PA Dems):

https://twitter.com/malcolmkenyatta/status/1364290274852294656

Apparently the context is that it's been a year since Ahmaud Arbery's murder, but Kenyetta isn't stupid.

On any other day it would clearly be an attack on Fetterman, but today it can be read two ways. Shrewd move by Kenyatta.

Glad I’m not the only person who picked up on this. It’s obvious that this is about Ahmaud Arbery but could be read as a double entendre.

Yeah, the fact that he still led with "jog" & left the explicit Arbery reference for a separate tweet makes it not at all hard to see what he's nodding at here, which I frankly don't fault him for in any event: that's the name of the game, after all. But still, it's very obvious.

Moreover, who here (with the seeming exception of Comrade Funk, whose point that you were replying to was - crucially - not agreed with by anybody else on this thread) is trying to "disqualify" Kenyatta for this, whatever that even means? In what world does people pointing out what we're evidently gonna be in for over the course of this campaign & - if anything - even commending the shrewdness of his political capabilities (& the potential effectiveness thereof, too, if it works out for him) equate to trying "to find a reason to disqualify" him? Don't get me wrong here, I love you as a poster & agree with your analyses & what you have to say the vast majority of the time, but unlike the rest of us aforementionedly reading what Kenyatta was clearly getting at with his statement, you're simply reading something into what people on here are saying in response to him that's not at all present.

[brucejoel99]

No clue as to how much pull Rendell still has (particularly in Philly, if anywhere), but if anybody does actually care about his endorsement, Fetterman has it (& this is notably after Rendell was obviously unhappy about Fetterman running back when Rendell was literally the chair of McGinty's 2016 campaign).

[brucejoel99]

As a resident of PA, this race looms large for the control of the Senate next year. I'm currently undecided on Fetterman, but I'd fully support Conor Lamb. He might be too left on environmental issues, and as a Progressive, I fear that he could potentially struggle in the suburbs.

Are you saying that Lamb is a "progressive" who's "too left on environmental issues"? Because if so, that ain't it, chief.

[brucejoel99]

Val Arkoosh is expected to jump in the next few weeks. Not sure she really has a path unless no other women jump in. I wouldn't even say she's that particularly known in Montco.

Sounds like Houlahan, Lamb, Dean, are still mulling. No word on Wild though, so it appears she's not interested.

https://www.inquirer.com/news/pa-senate-race-2022-val-arkoosh-fetterman-kenyatta-20210329.html

Actually expected Fetterman's nomination as shoe-in. That said, I still expect him the win the Dem primary with strong support from Gov. Wolf. GE is a pure tossup.

Is Wolf even endorsing?

[brucejoel99]

Pretty nice troll job from Kenyatta here:

https://twitter.com/malcolmkenyatta/status/1377214316269682691?s=20

Oof, that's gotta sting.

[brucejoel99]

https://twitter.com/ByChrisBrennan/status/1377602739778289664
Fetterman Get's an Endorsment.

Wow, that's...bizarre.

Certainly an unexpected twist in this saga, that's for sure.

[brucejoel99]

Fetterman raised almost $4 million.

At this rate, he's primed to utterly destroy next year.