PA-SN 2022 megathread: Shrek vs. The Wizard of Oz

[Utah Neolib]

Fetterman is a Randy Bryce 2.0, a carciture of a working class democrat that all metropolitan democrats think is exactly what they need to win back rural and working class areas due to this aesthetics despite his policy and rethoric being indistrigushable from a normal progressive. and are then suprised when he flops among those voters.

Fetterman's main issue seems to be legal weed which while broadly popular isn't really an important issue that will allow him to make gains among trump voters. He has never run in actual competitive election beyond his LG primary where he was the sole western PA canidate against 4 philly canidates and his braddock mayor primary.  Braddock is a town that gave Joe Biden 90% of their vote, so it's hardly any indication of cross-over support.

Connor Lamb on the other hand flipped a trump +20% district against a fairly normal repubclain candidate and won another Trump district by double digits in 2018 an incredibly strong perfomance. Even in 2020 his vote share was higher than Biden showing proof that he is able to win over trump and non-democratic voters, despite his margin being lower due to his republcian opponent outperforming trump.

This! People think Fetterman is some electoral juggernaut, when he’s just a progressive with a beard

[LabourJersey]

Fetterman is a Randy Bryce 2.0, a carciture of a working class democrat that all metropolitan democrats think is exactly what they need to win back rural and working class areas due to this aesthetics despite his policy and rethoric being indistrigushable from a normal progressive. and are then suprised when he flops among those voters.

Fetterman's main issue seems to be legal weed which while broadly popular isn't really an important issue that will allow him to make gains among trump voters. He has never run in actual competitive election beyond his LG primary where he was the sole western PA canidate against 4 philly canidates and his braddock mayor primary.  Braddock is a town that gave Joe Biden 90% of their vote, so it's hardly any indication of cross-over support.

Connor Lamb on the other hand flipped a trump +20% district against a fairly normal repubclain candidate and won another Trump district by double digits in 2018 an incredibly strong perfomance. Even in 2020 his vote share was higher than Biden showing proof that he is able to win over trump and non-democratic voters, despite his margin being lower due to his republcian opponent outperforming trump.

This! People think Fetterman is some electoral juggernaut, when he’s just a progressive with a beard

I don't think Fetterman is an electoral titan, but aesthetics are a pretty big part of politics these days, and not something you can completely dismiss in a crowded primary

[Pericles]

Fetterman is a Randy Bryce 2.0, a carciture of a working class democrat that all metropolitan democrats think is exactly what they need to win back rural and working class areas due to this aesthetics despite his policy and rethoric being indistrigushable from a normal progressive. and are then suprised when he flops among those voters.

Fetterman's main issue seems to be legal weed which while broadly popular isn't really an important issue that will allow him to make gains among trump voters. He has never run in actual competitive election beyond his LG primary where he was the sole western PA canidate against 4 philly canidates and his braddock mayor primary.  Braddock is a town that gave Joe Biden 90% of their vote, so it's hardly any indication of cross-over support.

Connor Lamb on the other hand flipped a trump +20% district against a fairly normal repubclain candidate and won another Trump district by double digits in 2018 an incredibly strong perfomance. Even in 2020 his vote share was higher than Biden showing proof that he is able to win over trump and non-democratic voters, despite his margin being lower due to his republcian opponent outperforming trump.

This! People think Fetterman is some electoral juggernaut, when he’s just a progressive with a beard

I don't think Fetterman is an electoral titan, but aesthetics are a pretty big part of politics these days, and not something you can completely dismiss in a crowded primary

The aesthetic might be over the top though.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Fetterman is a Randy Bryce 2.0, a carciture of a working class democrat that all metropolitan democrats think is exactly what they need to win back rural and working class areas due to this aesthetics despite his policy and rethoric being indistrigushable from a normal progressive. and are then suprised when he flops among those voters.

Fetterman's main issue seems to be legal weed which while broadly popular isn't really an important issue that will allow him to make gains among trump voters. He has never run in actual competitive election beyond his LG primary where he was the sole western PA canidate against 4 philly canidates and his braddock mayor primary.  Braddock is a town that gave Joe Biden 90% of their vote, so it's hardly any indication of cross-over support.

Connor Lamb on the other hand flipped a trump +20% district against a fairly normal repubclain candidate and won another Trump district by double digits in 2018 an incredibly strong perfomance. Even in 2020 his vote share was higher than Biden showing proof that he is able to win over trump and non-democratic voters, despite his margin being lower due to his republcian opponent outperforming trump.

This! People think Fetterman is some electoral juggernaut, when he’s just a progressive with a beard

I don't think Fetterman is an electoral titan, but aesthetics are a pretty big part of politics these days, and not something you can completely dismiss in a crowded primary

I don't disagree that he's got a good shot in the primary purely because of name recognition, I think he's beloved among Partisan democrats and will perform surprisingly well in Philly soley because he's the only democrat most voters will be able to name. I do think however his aesthetics won't win him many working class voters.

Remember Trumps aesthetics of a gaudy gold loving new yorker living in a post-mordern penthouse in manhattan didn't stop him from making huge gains among working class communites. What's important is Rhetoric and vibes, Fetterman's rethoric is indistughsable from a normal progressive besides perhaps an extra focus on legal weed while he does an inauthentic vibe.

[SnowLabrador]

Fetterman will win the primary, appear to be ahead in polling, but lose to Parnell by 3-5 points.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Fetterman will win the primary, appear to be ahead in polling, but lose to Parnell by 3-5 points.

Oh, that's a funny one.

[Calthrina950]

Fetterman will win the primary, appear to be ahead in polling, but lose to Parnell by 3-5 points.

If Fetterman lost, it would probably be a ~1-2% margin. Toomey himself never won by more than 2%, and I don't see why Parnell would.

[wbrocks67]

Fetterman will win the primary, appear to be ahead in polling, but lose to Parnell by 3-5 points.

Not sure if this a joke or not but Parnell was last in fundraising last quarter so I don't get why people keep pushing him as some unbeatable titan.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

If Rs can't beat Bib Casey Jr whom is alot like Fetterman whom won by nine, Sean Parnell won't beat Fetterman

[Lambsbread]

"Parnell will beat Fetterman in the general.

Source: trust me guys"

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

"Parnell will beat Fetterman in the general.

Source: trust me guys"

The only R that thinks that Parnell would win was French Republican and as of now we haven't heard from him

The other Rs say that, but they know that Fetterman is gonna win, French Republican said Fetterman was overrated

[wbrocks67]

I think there definitely is warranted skepticism of Fetterman, especially the 'Randy Bryce 2.0' thing. I think he's in a better position than that, but it should be noted of course, as some have already, that Fetterman is still relatively unproven.

Meanwhile, Lamb has the bonafides.

Lamb raised $1M last Q without even jumping in the race, so interested to see his figures this go around.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Fetterman will win the primary, appear to be ahead in polling, but lose to Parnell by 3-5 points.

Not sure if this a joke or not but Parnell was last in fundraising last quarter so I don't get why people keep pushing him as some unbeatable titan.

Like I said, Bartos may beat him. He has a lot of endorsements(particularly, Garrity). Which one do you think would be weaker?

[wbrocks67]

Fetterman will win the primary, appear to be ahead in polling, but lose to Parnell by 3-5 points.

Not sure if this a joke or not but Parnell was last in fundraising last quarter so I don't get why people keep pushing him as some unbeatable titan.

Like I said, Bartos may beat him. He has a lot of endorsements(particularly, Garrity). Which one do you think would be weaker?

It's honestly hard to say. Pennsylvania republicans are generally a lot less 'Trumpy' than a lot of the other comparable states, so I could see Bartos doing okay in the primary, but he's the least nutty of the bunch so I'd imagine he'd have the best general chances.

The thing though is that to get the Trumpy Republicans out in Nov 2022, the GOP nom is going to have to excite them somewhat and while Bartos might have the most potential crossover appeal, he doesn't excite the base. But likewise, Barnette and Parnell are whack jobs and excite the base but don't have much crossover appeal (Barnette had some in 2020, but that was before many realized who nutty she really was)

I would not be surprised if Barnette actually came out on top, since she seems to be doing well with fundraising too.

[Utah Neolib]

Fetterman will win the primary, appear to be ahead in polling, but lose to Parnell by 3-5 points.

How?

[brucejoel99]

I think there definitely is warranted skepticism of Fetterman, especially the 'Randy Bryce 2.0' thing. I think he's in a better position than that, but it should be noted of course, as some have already, that Fetterman is still relatively unproven.

Meanwhile, Lamb has the bonafides.

Lamb raised $1M last Q without even jumping in the race, so interested to see his figures this go around.

When operating under the dynamics presented by this particular race, at least, given that the entire reason that Fetterman is even the incumbent L.G. in the first place is because he was able to consolidate WePA against challengers who were all from SePA, whereas Lamb's confirmed presence in this race obviously complicates any potential repeat of such a tactic.

This race really seems like it's gonna manage to be both fascinating & miserable, wherein Lamb is the national establishment's candidate who gets a lot of support from national groups & outside money, whereas Fetterman's advantage - particularly over any other progressives - is that he's a strong progressive who's nevertheless learned how to play the game in Harrisburg for a while now, & has become a genuinely-liked by & team-player within the PA Democratic establishment as a result. It's interesting that other PA Democratic establishment figures like Wolf & Shapiro have - in spite of being close with Fetterman - declined to endorse thus far, which is a further interesting complication for Fetterman.

It seems like the open questions that remain in determining where this all ends up in the end are just can Lamb convert outside funding into actual on-the-ground support (which he may not currently have as much of as Fetterman), does Fetterman's jogging incident hurts him with Black voters &/or progressives (as opposed to is he Randy Bryce 2.0, because the political credibility that he's already managed to develop within the state over the course of his career frankly proves that he's not, & clearly so at that), can Kenyatta - who's not liable to get much, if any national support because most, if not all of that's going to Lamb - actually convince progressives that he's better than Fetterman without Street's presence in the race harming his chances, & will any of the state-level establishment actually come out & vocally support Fetterman?

[KaiserDave]

I don’t understand the Fetterman Bryce comparison at all. Just….what?

[Utah Neolib]

Jeff Bartos and Josh Shapiro's kids go to the same private school in PA.

[President Johnson]

I would guess Lamb's strategy to win in a general election is trying to appeal to some more conservative voters or a bunch of Trump voters. Fetterman meanwhile is probably better suited to turn out new voters, especially younger voters although he may also appeal to populists.

While both would make a decent senator, I'm rooting for Fetterman because he's a rational progressive and offering a positive contrast to certain Squad members. The progressive wing needs representation through people like him. Also, I think he sincerely cares about improving conditions in distressed areas and could really be a voice for these communities.

[Meatball Ron]

I would guess Lamb's strategy to win in a general election is trying to appeal to some more conservative voters or a bunch of Trump voters. Fetterman meanwhile is probably better suited to turn out new voters, especially younger voters although he may also appeal to populists.

While both would make a decent senator, I'm rooting for Fetterman because he's a rational progressive and offering a positive contrast to certain Squad members. The progressive wing needs representation through people like him. Also, I think he sincerely cares about improving conditions in distressed areas and could really be a voice for these communities.

I would bet Lamb's general election strategy would actually be more about absolutely running up the score in the suburbs, and keeping rural / Trump voter performance at Biden levels.

Curious what you mean by Fetterman offering a contrast to squad members / progressives needing representation through "people like him"?

[KaiserDave]

Fetterman is a Randy Bryce 2.0, a carciture of a working class democrat that all metropolitan democrats think is exactly what they need to win back rural and working class areas due to this aesthetics despite his policy and rethoric being indistrigushable from a normal progressive. and are then suprised when he flops among those voters.

Fetterman's main issue seems to be legal weed which while broadly popular isn't really an important issue that will allow him to make gains among trump voters. He has never run in actual competitive election beyond his LG primary where he was the sole western PA canidate against 4 philly canidates and his braddock mayor primary.  Braddock is a town that gave Joe Biden 90% of their vote, so it's hardly any indication of cross-over support.

Connor Lamb on the other hand flipped a trump +20% district against a fairly normal repubclain candidate and won another Trump district by double digits in 2018 an incredibly strong perfomance. Even in 2020 his vote share was higher than Biden showing proof that he is able to win over trump and non-democratic voters, despite his margin being lower due to his republcian opponent outperforming trump.

What? No. No. Silly silly comparison.

Randy Bryce was a multiple times failed candidate who came out of nowhere to challenge the House Speaker, why the Wisconsin Democrats got behind this is beyond me, but he did. His past was thoroughly exposed and he was defeated handily. The problem with Randy Bryce was that he was not a known quantity, yes he was picked up by out of state liberals who saw in him a stereotype of the WWC, thinking he could win back Trump Democrats. But the problem is that he came completely out of left field.

Fetterman is a known quantity, literally the current Lieutenant Governor of a large state, and has statewide campaign experience, and by all accounts is trusted and liked by the state party establishment. While it's true he has no proven electoral edge, the idea that his ideology is indistinguishable from an out of state liberal isn't true either, given John's tack on fracking.There is a cheap, lame attempt to turn John Fetterman into Randy Bryce, fortunately the comparison falls to pieces at the slightest scrutiny.

[If my soul was made of stone]

Connor Lamb on the other hand flipped a trump +20% district against a fairly normal repubclain candidate and won another Trump district by double digits in 2018 an incredibly strong perfomance. Even in 2020 his vote share was higher than Biden showing proof that he is able to win over trump and non-democratic voters, despite his margin being lower due to his republcian opponent outperforming trump.

Lamb's special election victory was much more a function of turnout dynamics in the immediate aftermath of the Trump shock than persuadable voters, and his 2018 performance was in, well, 2018. The district went for Biden in 2020, and he underperformed.

[wbrocks67]

Connor Lamb on the other hand flipped a trump +20% district against a fairly normal repubclain candidate and won another Trump district by double digits in 2018 an incredibly strong perfomance. Even in 2020 his vote share was higher than Biden showing proof that he is able to win over trump and non-democratic voters, despite his margin being lower due to his republcian opponent outperforming trump.

Lamb's special election victory was much more a function of turnout dynamics in the immediate aftermath of the Trump shock than persuadable voters, and his 2018 performance was in, well, 2018. The district went for Biden in 2020, and he underperformed.

Given the propensity of many house democrats to considerably underperform Biden, no, I would not say Lamb underperformed. He nearly matched Biden. 51-48 and 50-48 is essentially the same.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

https://twitter.com/politicaltrack2/status/1424871412800569351

Seriously, anyone who thinks that a candidate who ran behind Biden in an area where downballot Democrats usually run ahead of Presidential numbers, and sometimes by a lot, is somehow their most electable choice is truly dumb.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

https://twitter.com/politicaltrack2/status/1424871412800569351

Seriously, anyone who thinks that a candidate who ran behind Biden in an area where downballot Democrats usually run ahead of Presidential numbers, and sometimes by a lot, is somehow their most electable choice is truly dumb.

He ran behind Biden by, like, .2%, which is statistically insignificant. And is that your Twitter you just plugged? lol