PA-SN 2022 megathread: Shrek vs. The Wizard of Oz

[Senator-elect Spark]

I hope Lamb jumps in

[Lognog]

https://twitter.com/PhillyInquirer/status/1406927751723036673

100% forgot she was running. I don't think she is going to go very far. I bet Kenyatta gets more of the collar counties then she does

[Never Made it to Graceland]

Sean Parnell is a joke. He is one of the dumbest politicians currently active in America today. I hope he gets the nomination because he would lose to a barely sentient loaded diaper.

[SnowLabrador]

Parnell almost beat Lamb, he's got a good chance in the general election.

[Never Made it to Graceland]

Parnell almost beat Lamb, he's got a good chance in the general election.

Uh, no. Parnell lost when he honestly should have been favored, in a Trump coattails election in a very depressed WWC area. He wouldn't have a prayer in a state race.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Parnell almost beat Lamb, he's got a good chance in the general election.

Do you look at polls, Fetterman is up 9 pts like Kelly is, it's early, but goes to show you about your Parnell

[wbrocks67]

Parnell almost beat Lamb, he's got a good chance in the general election.

Uh, no. Parnell lost when he honestly should have been favored, in a Trump coattails election in a very depressed WWC area. He wouldn't have a prayer in a state race.

Yep. The only reason Parnell even had a chance to begin with was because of Trumps coattails.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

If D's don't win Pza, they don't win the Senate anyways, just like in 2024/ Rs think they're gonna win the Prez by winning PA and Bob Casey Jr is up and he is Unbeatable

[sting in the rafters]

Parnell almost beat Lamb, he's got a good chance in the general election.

Uh, no. Parnell lost when he honestly should have been favored, in a Trump coattails election in a very depressed WWC area. He wouldn't have a prayer in a state race.

Agreed with your reasoning though not entirely with your description of PA-17. While Beaver County most certainly has its fair share of rust and issues with deindustrialization (especially towards the Ohio border) it’s also rebounded somewhat due to the tech boom and most of the towns there have decent enough public school districts. The northern parts of Allegheny in his district are actually some of the more affluent Pittsburgh suburbs such as Franklin Park or Cranberry Township where it dips into Butler. And of course Mt Lebanon itself is one of the hidden gems of Appalachia with one of the finest public health systems in the nation.


20-30 years ago you would be right on the money, nowadays though the “very depressed WWC area” you’re looking for is more limited to Fayette or Washington County (which of course, Mr. Lamb did rather well capturing ancestrally D support in addition to the strong numbers in SW Allegheny when he first outlasted Saccone for the 18th.)

[ElectionsGuy]

Parnell almost beat Lamb, he's got a good chance in the general election.

Uh, no. Parnell lost when he honestly should have been favored, in a Trump coattails election in a very depressed WWC area. He wouldn't have a prayer in a state race.

Nobody expected him to get that close. This is gaslighting. It's also a relatively well-off suburban area compared to the surrounding districts.

[wbrocks67]

Parnell almost beat Lamb, he's got a good chance in the general election.

Uh, no. Parnell lost when he honestly should have been favored, in a Trump coattails election in a very depressed WWC area. He wouldn't have a prayer in a state race.

Nobody expected him to get that close. This is gaslighting. It's also a relatively well-off suburban area compared to the surrounding districts.

And what though? This was also a district that Trump won in 2016, and Biden only won by 3. It's clear Trump brought out his folks, and those folks also helped Parnell get so close.

[Meatball Ron]

Parnell almost beat Lamb, he's got a good chance in the general election.

Uh, no. Parnell lost when he honestly should have been favored, in a Trump coattails election in a very depressed WWC area. He wouldn't have a prayer in a state race.

Nobody expected him to get that close. This is gaslighting. It's also a relatively well-off suburban area compared to the surrounding districts.

"Gaslighting is when someone disagrees with me"

[ElectionsGuy]

Parnell almost beat Lamb, he's got a good chance in the general election.

Uh, no. Parnell lost when he honestly should have been favored, in a Trump coattails election in a very depressed WWC area. He wouldn't have a prayer in a state race.

Nobody expected him to get that close. This is gaslighting. It's also a relatively well-off suburban area compared to the surrounding districts.

"Gaslighting is when someone disagrees with me"

Let's see: https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=354485.0

Am I wrong, or do you just don't like that I'm disputing this attempt to rewrite this forum's awful track record?

Parnell lost by 2 in a district that is now more left-leaning than the state as a whole. It would literally just take a shift of 1-2 points in the national environment, or a 1-2 point R trend for Pennsylvania specifically, for Parnell to win a statewide race. It is completely ridiculous to say he doesn't "have a prayer" because of... once again, this completely wishful idea that Republican voters only turnout for Trump, or that the district is easier for Parnell to win in.

[ElectionsGuy]

Parnell almost beat Lamb, he's got a good chance in the general election.

Uh, no. Parnell lost when he honestly should have been favored, in a Trump coattails election in a very depressed WWC area. He wouldn't have a prayer in a state race.

Nobody expected him to get that close. This is gaslighting. It's also a relatively well-off suburban area compared to the surrounding districts.

And what though? This was also a district that Trump won in 2016, and Biden only won by 3. It's clear Trump brought out his folks, and those folks also helped Parnell get so close.

You spent months before the 2020 election talking about how Trump was going to be defeated in a landslide, and how he wouldn't gin up enthusiasm on the Republican side, which is the exact opposite premise of what you're now relying on to make your point.

[lfromnj]

Parnell almost beat Lamb, he's got a good chance in the general election.

Uh, no. Parnell lost when he honestly should have been favored, in a Trump coattails election in a very depressed WWC area. He wouldn't have a prayer in a state race.

Nobody expected him to get that close. This is gaslighting. It's also a relatively well-off suburban area compared to the surrounding districts.

Its a mix really. This is why Trump's margins = Parnell's margin basically in the end because Parnell did worse in areas like Beaver while Trump did worse in Mt.Lebanon.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Take those Trump margins and lower it more because Trump almost won before the Insurrectionists

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/PhillyInquirer/status/1406927751723036673

100% forgot she was running. I don't think she is going to go very far. I bet Kenyatta gets more of the collar counties then she does

I think Arkoosh could do somewhat well theoretically, but yeah the issue is that even in Montgomery County (where I'm from), she's pretty unknown to the general public

[Meatball Ron]

Parnell almost beat Lamb, he's got a good chance in the general election.

Uh, no. Parnell lost when he honestly should have been favored, in a Trump coattails election in a very depressed WWC area. He wouldn't have a prayer in a state race.

Nobody expected him to get that close. This is gaslighting. It's also a relatively well-off suburban area compared to the surrounding districts.

"Gaslighting is when someone disagrees with me"

Let's see: https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=354485.0

Am I wrong, or do you just don't like that I'm disputing this attempt to rewrite this forum's awful track record?

Parnell lost by 2 in a district that is now more left-leaning than the state as a whole. It would literally just take a shift of 1-2 points in the national environment, or a 1-2 point R trend for Pennsylvania specifically, for Parnell to win a statewide race. It is completely ridiculous to say he doesn't "have a prayer" because of... once again, this completely wishful idea that Republican voters only turnout for Trump, or that the district is easier for Parnell to win in.

I literally was not talking about whether Parnell over- or under-performed (tbh I agree w/ you that he over-performed expectations and that CraneHusband's / ConcernedCitizen's characterization of the race / district is wrong, though I disagree with your extrapolation that that makes him a good statewide candidate). I was just mocking your choice of the word "gaslighting" which has to be the most over-used word in the English language right now. It has a niche definition - the attempt to psychologically manipulate someone into questioning their own sanity / self-worth - but people (mostly on the left, actually - though apparently based on your post it spans the ideological spectrum) tend to use it to mean someone says something they don't like.

[Vosem]

Parnell lost to Lamb 49-51 when Trump lost the same seat 48-51. This doesn't seem like an especially impressive result (especially given that House Rs lost by 3 points while Trump lost by 5, so Parnell out-performed Trump by less than the normal candidate), but it also doesn't seem very disastrous. I think Parnell is going to perform at about the level of Generic R, and I think even if the midterm is very forgiving to Democrats that'll still be good enough for the GOP to hold PA.

[Pericles]

Parnell lost to Lamb 49-51 when Trump lost the same seat 48-51. This doesn't seem like an especially impressive result (especially given that House Rs lost by 3 points while Trump lost by 5, so Parnell out-performed Trump by less than the normal candidate), but it also doesn't seem very disastrous. I think Parnell is going to perform at about the level of Generic R, and I think even if the midterm is very forgiving to Democrats that'll still be good enough for the GOP to hold PA.

Nitpicking here but 4.45% (or 4.46%?) really shouldn't be rounded up to 5%, it's more accurate to say he lost by 4%.

[Lambsbread]

Take with a grain of salt, but PoliticsPA ran a poll asking who Democrats should nominate for US Senate and with over 3,700 votes cast, Malcolm Kenyatta edged out Conor Lamb as the readers' choice:

https://www.politicspa.com/reader-poll-democrats-should-nominate-kenyatta-for-u-s-senate-in-2022/98478/

Kenyatta 38%
Lamb 35%
Fetterman 15%
Arkoosh 6%
Street 1%

[wbrocks67]

Take with a grain of salt, but PoliticsPA ran a poll asking who Democrats should nominate for US Senate and with over 3,700 votes cast, Malcolm Kenyatta edged out Conor Lamb as the readers' choice:

https://www.politicspa.com/reader-poll-democrats-should-nominate-kenyatta-for-u-s-senate-in-2022/98478/

Kenyatta 38%
Lamb 35%
Fetterman 15%
Arkoosh 6%
Street 1%

This would be great if it were true. I honestly think if Lamb jumps in my top 2 would be Kenyatta and Lamb, but not sure who I would choose.

I want to support Arkoosh in Montco but I just feel like she has no chance. Fetterman has fell a lot in my rankings.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Whomever is nominated is gonna win this seat and WI anyways

The question is can Ryan, Beasley, Val , Kunce, Gross and MAUBAUER win, I know the Rs don't believe we can win all these seats but our candidates are better than 2020 candidates HEGAR, Greenfield and Cunningham

The D's had Bollier, Bullock and Joe Kennedy were all wasted


Mandel and Renacci already lost to Sherrod Brown, if Ryan is behind he isn't behind by double digits it's a single digit race, Ryan never lost a race to an R before only D nomination for Prez let's not overdo it with how great Mandel is, but Renacci is a better candidate by far and can win Gov race

[MATTROSE94]

Whomever is nominated is gonna win this seat and WI anyways

The question is can Ryan, Beasley, Val , Kunce, Gross and MAUBAUER win, I know the Rs don't believe we can win all these seats but our candidates are better than 2020 candidates HEGAR, Greenfield and Cunningham

The D's had Bollier, Bullock and Joe Kennedy were all wasted


Mandel and Renacci already lost to Sherrod Brown, if Ryan is behind he isn't behind by double digits it's a single digit race, Ryan never lost a race to an R before only D nomination for Prez let's not overdo it with how great Mandel is, but Renacci is a better candidate by far and can win Gov race

Who the heck is MAUBAUER?

[Utah Neolib]

Whomever is nominated is gonna win this seat and WI anyways

The question is can Ryan, Beasley, Val , Kunce, Gross and MAUBAUER win, I know the Rs don't believe we can win all these seats but our candidates are better than 2020 candidates HEGAR, Greenfield and Cunningham

The D's had Bollier, Bullock and Joe Kennedy were all wasted


Mandel and Renacci already lost to Sherrod Brown, if Ryan is behind he isn't behind by double digits it's a single digit race, Ryan never lost a race to an R before only D nomination for Prez let's not overdo it with how great Mandel is, but Renacci is a better candidate by far and can win Gov race

Who the heck is MAUBAUER?

I’m guessing he means Finkenauer?