PA-SN 2022 megathread: Shrek vs. The Wizard of Oz

[wbrocks67]

Smh @ Dean/Houlahan. Don't they realize we can't save both of them in redistricting?

why not? Houlahan is mostly Chester and Dean is mostly Montco. Given the fact that both won by double digits in 2020 (Dean nearly 20%), I don't see a problem for either of them.

[Meatball Ron]

Smh @ Dean/Houlahan. Don't they realize we can't save both of them in redistricting?

why not? Houlahan is mostly Chester and Dean is mostly Montco. Given the fact that both won by double digits in 2020 (Dean nearly 20%), I don't see a problem for either of them.

Yeah, it’s Wild and/or Cartwright who’ll be in trouble (as well as potentially Lamb)

[JM1295]

With all the news of Dean, Houlahan, and Wild not jumping into the primary, do we know if Cartwright has ruled out a Senate run as well? He's needed in the house, but idk how much longer Cartwright can hold on for (especially if his district gets redder in redistricting).

[Grumpier Than Thou]

With all the news of Dean, Houlahan, and Wild not jumping into the primary, do we know if Cartwright has ruled out a Senate run as well? He's needed in the house, but idk how much longer Cartwright can hold on for (especially if his district gets redder in redistricting).

He would be in already if he wanted to be in. I can't recall if he has specifically ruled it out, but it's not exactly new news that his district is going to be impacted by redistricting. If he saw a future in statewide politics, he would've gotten in already. I suppose it's still possible, but it doesn't strike me as incredibly likely.

[President Johnson]

Fetterman is Bob Casey Jr a Blue Dog just like Jelly, Jackson and Ryan whom all can win

Fetterman is no Blue Dog, he's a progressive. And one of the best representatives of that wing of the party.

Bob Casey Jr. is no Blue Dog either, and neither is Tim Ryan. Can I ask you a question, Pres. Johnson? Haven't you seen enough posts by Olowakandi to know that his posts are often inaccurate or nonsensical?

Of course I have, but sometimes it's funny to respond anyway. OC is gonna be OC

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Fetterman is Bob Casey Jr a Blue Dog just like Jelly, Jackson and Ryan whom all can win

Fetterman is no Blue Dog, he's a progressive. And one of the best representatives of that wing of the party.

Bob Casey Jr. is no Blue Dog either, and neither is Tim Ryan. Can I ask you a question, Pres. Johnson? Haven't you seen enough posts by Olowakandi to know that his posts are often inaccurate or nonsensical?

Of course I have, but sometimes it's funny to respond anyway. OC is gonna be OC

Tim Ryan, MANCHIN, TESTER, King, Jackson, Kelly, Sinema, Bennett, Hickenlooper all signed the petition that they weren't gonna Crt pack based on LGBT issue, in my world it's a blue 🐶 DOG or in your World it's a moderate

Edwards, Landrieu, and Lincoln are moderates, Pryor, Breaux and Miller were Blue Dog

YOU CAN CALL THEM PRAGMATIC, MODERATES OR BLUE DOGS BUT WHEN 10 MODERATES SIGN A PETITION NOT TO CRT PACK THEY ARE BLUE DOGS

SHAHEEN IS A MODERATE, NOT A BLUE DOG

If we get 53 seats we can Crt pack but PR won't be a State it would be DC and 11 judge panel making Roberts the moderate

[Ferguson97]

I prefer Kenyatta but I think Fetterman probably wins the primary.

[wbrocks67]

I prefer Kenyatta but I think Fetterman probably wins the primary.

Kenyatta will need some major endorsements and a ton of $$$ to even have a chance, agreed.

[Meatball Ron]

I prefer Kenyatta but I think Fetterman probably wins the primary.

Kenyatta will need some major endorsements and a ton of $$$ to even have a chance, agreed.

His fundraising is going really poorly - I think he sort of screwed himself with the "no PAC money" thing - think that only works for folks in uncompetitive races (e.g., E. Warren) or when opponents have also agreed to it.

[SnowLabrador]

I prefer Kenyatta but I think Fetterman probably wins the primary.

Kenyatta will need some major endorsements and a ton of $$$ to even have a chance, agreed.

His fundraising is going really poorly - I think he sort of screwed himself with the "no PAC money" thing - think that only works for folks in uncompetitive races (e.g., E. Warren) or when opponents have also agreed to it.

Eh, if 2020 taught me anything, it's that fundraising means next to nothing.

[Meatball Ron]

I prefer Kenyatta but I think Fetterman probably wins the primary.

Kenyatta will need some major endorsements and a ton of $$$ to even have a chance, agreed.

His fundraising is going really poorly - I think he sort of screwed himself with the "no PAC money" thing - think that only works for folks in uncompetitive races (e.g., E. Warren) or when opponents have also agreed to it.

Eh, if 2020 taught me anything, it's that fundraising means next to nothing.

Raising tons (a la McGrath, Harrison) doesn't mean you'll win or even over-perform, but raising next to nothing in a competitive primary against folks with much higher name recognition is a pretty good indicator for losing / under-performing. There's some nuance to this; it's not as simple as fundraising "does" or "doesn't" matter.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Shapiro is waiting on what Lamb is gonna do, either of them are gonna be the next Gov of PA, Lamb is just as strong as Shapiro against Bartlettle

[MATTROSE94]

Shapiro is waiting on what Lamb is gonna do, either of them are gonna be the next Gov of PA, Lamb is just as strong as Shapiro against Bartlettle

I agree that either Josh Shapiro or Connor Lamb would be a great Governor of Pennsylvania and would likely win against Doug Mastriano, Lou Barletta, or Joe Gale.

[wbrocks67]

I honestly don't think Lamb has any interest in GOV, at least not right now

[Grumpier Than Thou]

I honestly don't think Lamb has any interest in GOV, at least not right now

Yeah absolutely not. He has been explicitly linked to the Senate race. He's either running for that or he's running for re-election. The Gov nomination is Shapiro's and no other serious candidate has been linked to that race in a while. Jim Kenney was the last major name who was considering a run but that's gone completely silent.

[Sir Mohamed]

I honestly don't think Lamb has any interest in GOV, at least not right now

Yeah absolutely not. He has been explicitly linked to the Senate race. He's either running for that or he's running for re-election. The Gov nomination is Shapiro's and no other serious candidate has been linked to that race in a while. Jim Kenney was the last major name who was considering a run but that's gone completely silent.

I suppose Lamb running for senate would be bad news for Fetterman? Both he an Kenyatte are progressives and I would think Fetterman more appeals to moderate Dems.

[Grumpier Than Thou]

I honestly don't think Lamb has any interest in GOV, at least not right now

Yeah absolutely not. He has been explicitly linked to the Senate race. He's either running for that or he's running for re-election. The Gov nomination is Shapiro's and no other serious candidate has been linked to that race in a while. Jim Kenney was the last major name who was considering a run but that's gone completely silent.

I suppose Lamb running for senate would be bad news for Fetterman? Both he an Kenyatte are progressives and I would think Fetterman more appeals to moderate Dems.

Pennsylvania tends to vote based on geography in the primary. The Philadelphia area will vote for candidates from Philly, Pittsburgh voters will vote for candidates from Pittsburgh, etc. So Lamb getting in hurts Fetterman from that standpoint. Kenyatta is hurt most by Val Arkoosh, but they're both hardly picking up much vote share this early into the primary. I think Lamb and Fetterman are both high profile enough to make it a really interesting result come election day and maybe Kenyatta or Arkoosh could theoretically squeeze through if one of them is able to capture enough of the vote in Philly and its suburbs. I think NEPA, Erie, and Centre counties are pretty much going to decide this primary, so I wouldn't be surprised to see candidates campaigning heavily in those areas.

[Spectator]

I honestly don't think Lamb has any interest in GOV, at least not right now

Yeah absolutely not. He has been explicitly linked to the Senate race. He's either running for that or he's running for re-election. The Gov nomination is Shapiro's and no other serious candidate has been linked to that race in a while. Jim Kenney was the last major name who was considering a run but that's gone completely silent.

I suppose Lamb running for senate would be bad news for Fetterman? Both he an Kenyatte are progressives and I would think Fetterman more appeals to moderate Dems.

I think you mean to say that Fetterman is the progressive one and Lamb is the “moderate” one. Otherwise that is a very inaccurate read on the field.

[Meatball Ron]

I think NEPA, Erie, and Centre counties are pretty much going to decide this primary, so I wouldn't be surprised to see candidates campaigning heavily in those areas.

Is the logic that Fetterman/Lamb splitting the SW PA vote is neutralized in a way by Kenyatta/Arkoosh splitting the SE PA vote (with SE PA providing a larger base of votes, but the SE PA candidates being weaker overall), leaving NE PA, Erie, and Centre as the areas that a) have a meaningful # of Dem voters b) do not have a Democratic candidate with a home field advantage?

If so - that'll be fascinating - essentially removing geographic advantages from the equation altogether. Seems good for Fetterman as the candidate with the highest name rec / only one to hold statewide office, but we'll see.

[MarkD]

Fetterman is Bob Casey Jr a Blue Dog just like Jelly, Jackson and Ryan whom all can win

Fetterman is no Blue Dog, he's a progressive. And one of the best representatives of that wing of the party.

Bob Casey Jr. is no Blue Dog either, and neither is Tim Ryan. Can I ask you a question, Pres. Johnson? Haven't you seen enough posts by Olowakandi to know that his posts are often inaccurate or nonsensical?

Of course I have, but sometimes it's funny to respond anyway. OC is gonna be OC

Tim Ryan, MANCHIN, TESTER, King, Jackson, Kelly, Sinema, Bennett, Hickenlooper all signed the petition that they weren't gonna Crt pack based on LGBT issue, in my world it's a blue 🐶 DOG or in your World it's a moderate

Edwards, Landrieu, and Lincoln are moderates, Pryor, Breaux and Miller were Blue Dog

YOU CAN CALL THEM PRAGMATIC, MODERATES OR BLUE DOGS BUT WHEN 10 MODERATES SIGN A PETITION NOT TO CRT PACK THEY ARE BLUE DOGS

SHAHEEN IS A MODERATE, NOT A BLUE DOG

If we get 53 seats we can Crt pack but PR won't be a State it would be DC and 11 judge panel making Roberts the moderate

Yes, in your world, that may be the case. But the actual Blue Dogs have a membership roster of their own, and if you don't see a congressman's name in this list, then they are not a Blue Dog.

[Utah Neolib]

Lamb is the most electable. In polls, most Pennsylvania democratic voters consider themselves “moderate”. While that might not mean much, it has implications. More people are going to vote for Lamb in the primary than many might think. Fetterman, while I still think he’s a good candidate and would still probably win, I don’t think moderate/independent turn-out would go to Fetterman as much as it would Lamb.

[SnowLabrador]

I hope Lamb doesn't run. We have to hold down his seat.

[Grumpier Than Thou]

Lamb is the most electable. In polls, most Pennsylvania democratic voters consider themselves “moderate”. While that might not mean much, it has implications. More people are going to vote for Lamb in the primary than many might think. Fetterman, while I still think he’s a good candidate and would still probably win, I don’t think moderate/independent turn-out would go to Fetterman as much as it would Lamb.

This is based on nothing more than a guess.

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

Lamb is the most electable. In polls, most Pennsylvania democratic voters consider themselves “moderate”. While that might not mean much, it has implications. More people are going to vote for Lamb in the primary than many might think. Fetterman, while I still think he’s a good candidate and would still probably win, I don’t think moderate/independent turn-out would go to Fetterman as much as it would Lamb.

Questions like that mean almost nothing. Plenty of those ‘moderates’ are just down the line liberals that call themselves moderates because they like to think of themselves as independent thinkers or expect they are really into guns or don’t like abortion or are saying ‘I’m a Democrat but not into this critical race theory stuff I keep hearing about’, not because they are knee-jerk radical centrists that really don’t exist in appreciable numbers out of Washington itself.

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/PhillyInquirer/status/1406927751723036673