PA-SN 2022 megathread: Shrek vs. The Wizard of Oz

[wbrocks67]

Shapiro for Senate, Fetterman for Governor!

Funny enough I think the opposite.. I'd expect Shapiro for Gov and Fetterman for Senate. I feel like the Senate race will be more partisan and Fetterman could appeal more to a possibly more R electorate. But then again, Shapiro will likely be up 5% by the end of it this year when Biden only won by ~1

[wbrocks67]

Lean R. Biden only won here by about 1%; I think Fitzpatrick would be the GOP's strongest candidate, and they needn't worry about sacrificing a House seat.

Well, if we're going off of this year, then Shapiro should be the SEN candidate then, since he outperformed Biden by nearly 4% with record GOP turnout.

But yes, realistically, Fitz is probably the best person the GOP has statewide. Their bench is pretty awful.

[wbrocks67]

Lean R. Biden only won here by about 1%; I think Fitzpatrick would be the GOP's strongest candidate, and they needn't worry about sacrificing a House seat.

Well, if we're going off of this year, then Shapiro should be the SEN candidate then, since he outperformed Biden by nearly 4% with record GOP turnout.

But yes, realistically, Fitz is probably the best person the GOP has statewide. Their bench is pretty awful.

They did pick up two statewide offices this year, so one of them could run.

The Treasury isn't confirmed yet.

Torsella Conceded

The Torsella loss is really sad, too. He won by 5% in 2016 while Clinton lost - even out performing Shapiro. Not sure what happened this year. Straight ticket voting was gone, but he was also the incumbent too. He should not have underperformed Biden.

[wbrocks67]

I don't know a damn thing about PA politics, so would Fitzpatrick be a good nominee for the GOP there?

PA's GOP bench is pretty horrific so Fitz would be their best bet most likely.

They would risk losing PA-01 bc he's really the only thing holding Dems back from getting that seat, but I'm sure they're okay with that trade

[wbrocks67]

Fetterman and Shapiro are going to be an amazing duo on the trail in 2022. They both have strengths that help the other out and I think both will benefit from being on the same ticket.

[wbrocks67]

Wow, all 50 states too. That's really impressive. 63/67 of PA counties too.

[wbrocks67]

Anyone else think Shapiro would be better for senate and Fetterman for governor or is that just me?

Perfectly understandable and arguable, tbh.

Hm, I think Shapiro is good either way, bc he could survive a more partisan race (Senate) given his performance this year. But Shapiro just feels to make sense for Governor, and I think a less partisan race could help him run it up even more. Meanwhile, while Shaprio clearly does have a lot of appeal given his performance this year, Fetterman just seems like the better candidate in the Senate race.

I'm not sure I can explain it well, but personally it just feels right with Shapiro as gov and Fetterman as Senate

[wbrocks67]

Fetterman and Shapiro are great candidates. Fetterman has run for Senate previously so I think he is kind of doing a "revenge tour" as it were by running for this seat again. Shapiro has been a brilliant AG and seems to have masterful command of PA-specific laws, which would aid him well as Governor. Not to say that Fetterman doesn't and he has absolutely built his brand around being "The Big Dude from Braddock" but he seems to have a much greater focus on a national agenda--M4A, legal weed, etc.--than Shapiro does. They're both great future candidates for POTUS as well

This is a good point as well. Shapiro just screams less partisanship and hasn't really been *as* involved with the national agenda as Fetterman has, so that makes both of their paths make even more sense to me.

[wbrocks67]

Fetterman and Wolf get a long very well, apparently. Wolf is definitely behind Fetterman (and likely Shapiro too)

I don't think Houlahan or Lamb will run though. Houlahan would certainly give Fetterman a run for his money, but Fetterman has more statewide name rec

[wbrocks67]

ik it’s not the sexiest thing ever, but if dems want to keep PA competitive, they have to continue to cut into york, lancaster, cumberland, dauphin, lebanon. SEPA is not enough. There a looooooot of people in those five counties combined that I listed, and they are growing, and gop has room to fall further there.

Yep, Lancaster and Cumberland in particular, which are both showing strong trends favorable to Dems. As well as Dauphin/Harrisburg suburbs

[wbrocks67]

Costello would be a sh**tshow

Costello is such a squirmy and milquetoast person; I just don't see who his constituency is. He's not even believable anymore for the moderate college+ whites

[wbrocks67]

If Costello is the nominee, I'd move the race from tilt R to pure tossup, choosing Fetterman at gunpoint. Costello's schtick might not work directly on voters but his "moderate FF" bonafides (and the return to a previous form of Republicanism) might still be intact in the eyes of cable news programs which could subsequently talk him up in a race against E X T R E M E John Fetterman.

It's a lot easier to be given the benefit of the doubt and pull his sort of nonsense off when his party is in the minority and in a Democratic trifecta's midterm to boot.

I think they're all at a disadvantage though; it's hard to label Fetterman a "radical". He's been very public the past few years, he's very well known, and I just don't see the "radical socialist" schtick working on him

[wbrocks67]

People in Philly don't even particularly like Kenney so i'm not sure who his constituency is here either

https://twitter.com/MadelainePisani/status/1354072151293362183

[wbrocks67]

See they've already begun messaging against Fetterman to paint him as an out of touch elitest.

https://twitter.com/RyanCostello/status/1361434448525463555?s=19

This ad is just so weird. Like it’s just the two pictures and it looks like the captions got swapped. Like seriously even the word play works better in reverse. Common Man Fetterman vs Coastal Elite Costello.

The entire point of this ad is to align Costello with Wawa (staple of southeastern PA/most of NJ) and align Fetterman with Sheetz (staple of western PA) to damage Fetterman in the Philadelphia suburbs. The fonts/branding used are the fonts/branding of the respective stores. It's a pretty toothless and overall dumb idea.

Pollster is correct on all levels.

As someone who is from SEPA/Philly burbs/Philly, this ad is just embarrassing and so cringe. But it's Costello, who used to be my rep back home before redistricting, and he's always been that way. He's the worst (+ Pat Toomey)

[wbrocks67]

Wawa is superior to Sheetz. They have better sandwiches and coffee selections. But Fetterman is the better man.

and if anything, people here know how to spot a cringe moment when they see one. And I'm pretty sure most people see right thru Costello

[wbrocks67]

Not sure why Lamb is being derided as some fake Democrat, he has come thru every single time he was needed.

[wbrocks67]

While I love that Kenyatta is in, this is going to be an ugly primary. Not looking forward to it.

However, I too have been unsettled with how Fetterman has handled the jogger incident. It just doesn't sit right with me. I think I'm on train Kenyatta for now (I'm also from SEPA so maybe I'm biased as well)

I'm not sure Lamb will jump in. But I'm even less sure of Houlahan/Dean/Wild. Dean is my congresswoman - I wouldn't be surprised if she used her new found fame (via the impeachment trial) to do it, but she's also in a very safe seat, so I'm not sure it's worth it for her right now.

[wbrocks67]

Considering Pennsylvania hasn't had a black statewide politican of prominence in a long time (if ever? besides like Auditor General or something), this would be huge For Kenyatta. That could work in his favor.

Don't get the hype about Cartwright. Yeah, he did great in his district, but that's more reason for him to STAY there, b/c we'd lose that seat then if he'd lose. And I don't see Cartwright performing any different than someone like Lamb statewide. People may hate Lamb here for some reason, but PA is still very much a tossup, so I think he'd be an Ossoff-type statewide candidate (and I mean that in a good way)

I'm still not convinced Lamb will jump in though. Would make sense for him to wait for Attorney General, no?

[wbrocks67]

It’s not like Sinema has ever “sabotaged” the Democratic agenda either.

yeah this is just such a ridiculous and exagerated point. Sinema has been a loyal vote on everything important to date. This whole "all or nothing" from progressives is getting really ridiculous.

[wbrocks67]

Cartwright is great imo, but he really is one of the most overrated politicians on this board. But I also feel like Lamb is way too hated on as well.

Also if progressives have a problem with Kenyatta, then they really don't know him or what he stands for. But I mean I've seen progressives complain about worse, so, I wouldn't put it past them

[wbrocks67]

Cartwright is great imo, but he really is one of the most overrated politicians on this board. But I also feel like Lamb is way too hated on as well.

Also if progressives have a problem with Kenyatta, then they really don't know him or what he stands for. But I mean I've seen progressives complain about worse, so, I wouldn't put it past them

"Problem with" =/= preferring another candidate. This reminds me of the whole Bernie/Warren thing in 2020, it's fine to think one candidate is good (or at least second-best) and still prefer another candidate. From what I've seen of Kenyatta, he seems fine; he seems pretty progressive, he would obviously be a historic senator for a litany of reasons, and I'm confident he'd be an excellent senator. However, there might still be legitimate reasons to raise eyebrows. I'm not wild about using Medicare for All as a litmus test, but it is worth noting that his website skirts around mentioning the policy by name, and obviously he endorsed Biden very early on in the primary. These are relevant issues when you're voting for a senator from PA, and I don't think it's unreasonable for progressives to stick with a more progressive track record until/unless these issues are brought up.

But that's the thing - IMO a "Biden progressive" is the exact type of person who could win Pennsylvania. Especially in a Biden midterm. SOmeone who is too progressive is not going to win PA. It sucks, but that's just the reality. To me, Kenyatta seems very much like a Raphael Warnock. Progressive, but still seen as a "moderate" progressive. And it would work for a state like PA.

[wbrocks67]

I would love Dean to run (she's my currrent congresswoman) but I still find it unlikely to happen

[wbrocks67]

I would love Dean to run (she's my currrent congresswoman) but I still find it unlikely to happen

Dean is a clown. she did worse than hillary in 2020 lmao

Not sure how that's a hit on her when Hillary's performance was still great in the district?

[wbrocks67]

Jeff Bartos (R) is in. Yawn

https://twitter.com/MadelainePisani/status/1368925319349100548

[wbrocks67]

lol Costello

https://www.inquirer.com/politics/clout/ryan-costello-twitter-tuesdays-with-toomey-20210319.html