PA-SN 2022 megathread: Shrek vs. The Wizard of Oz

[Meatball Ron]

I want Keyanetta

I would be fine with Kenyatta as well.

Also very funny to see the #KHive jumping ship from Kenyatta because he praised Cori Bush.

Worth noting that this is only a portion of the "K-Hive"; it seems to be a source of internal division (to the extent that an un-organized / loosely defined group can have "internal division" haha, I am wary of discussing as if they're an official, organized group). But I've seen several of the larger K-Hive accounts reiterating their support for Kenyatta and critiquing the Lamb defectors for overreacting to one photo.

For what it's worth, I am what you'd probably call K-Hive (strong supporter of any political ambitions the VP has and very sensitive to attacks on her that I feel are rooted in racial / gender biases - but I don't actually post on Twitter, just lurk), and I am still fully supporting Kenyatta (though I do think Lamb > Fetterman, due to the jogger incident).

[free my dawg]

I want Keyanetta

I would be fine with Kenyatta as well.

Also very funny to see the #KHive jumping ship from Kenyatta because he praised Cori Bush.

Worth noting that this is only a portion of the "K-Hive"; it seems to be a source of internal division (to the extent that an un-organized / loosely defined group can have "internal division" haha, I am wary of discussing as if they're an official, organized group). But I've seen several of the larger K-Hive accounts reiterating their support for Kenyatta and critiquing the Lamb defectors for overreacting to one photo.

For what it's worth, I am what you'd probably call K-Hive (strong supporter of any political ambitions the VP has and very sensitive to attacks on her that I feel are rooted in racial / gender biases - but I don't actually post on Twitter, just lurk), and I am still fully supporting Kenyatta (though I do think Lamb > Fetterman, due to the jogger incident).

Fair. The MAGA wing of the KHive would be a better term for it.

[Biden his time]

I want Keyanetta

Rearrange the letters in red and you get "Kayne", also known as "Kanye".

Coincidence?



Image Link

[Meatball Ron]

I want Keyanetta

I would be fine with Kenyatta as well.

Also very funny to see the #KHive jumping ship from Kenyatta because he praised Cori Bush.

Worth noting that this is only a portion of the "K-Hive"; it seems to be a source of internal division (to the extent that an un-organized / loosely defined group can have "internal division" haha, I am wary of discussing as if they're an official, organized group). But I've seen several of the larger K-Hive accounts reiterating their support for Kenyatta and critiquing the Lamb defectors for overreacting to one photo.

For what it's worth, I am what you'd probably call K-Hive (strong supporter of any political ambitions the VP has and very sensitive to attacks on her that I feel are rooted in racial / gender biases - but I don't actually post on Twitter, just lurk), and I am still fully supporting Kenyatta (though I do think Lamb > Fetterman, due to the jogger incident).

Fair. The MAGA wing of the KHive would be a better term for it.

That feels like a low blow but I’ll ask in good faith what you mean by MAGA wing? When I think of MAGA on the left, the closest parallel would be a) ppl who won’t support the Dem nominee because they aren’t left enough b) people who buy into the same sort of conspiracy theories (“DNC rigged the primary against bernie,” “Nina only lost because of dirty Jew money,” etc.) For all of some K-Hiver’s faults, you can’t dispute that they are unfailingly loyal Dem votes

I’m genuinely curious what you mean by MAGA wing, not trying to start some proxy argument with you considering we probably see eye to eye on 98% of political topics and I’m a huge fan of all your NH insights

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

He ran behind Biden by, like, .2%, which is statistically insignificant.

Given the political profile of PA-17 being such that downballot Democrats typically run ahead of Presidential totals, and sometimes by a lot; even a small overperformance by a Democrat there would be a big red flag as to their electability in a statewide race, let alone an underperformance.

[free my dawg]

Fair. The MAGA wing of the KHive would be a better term for it.

That feels like a low blow but I’ll ask in good faith what you mean by MAGA wing? When I think of MAGA on the left, the closest parallel would be a) ppl who won’t support the Dem nominee because they aren’t left enough b) people who buy into the same sort of conspiracy theories (“DNC rigged the primary against bernie,” “Nina only lost because of dirty Jew money,” etc.) For all of some K-Hiver’s faults, you can’t dispute that they are unfailingly loyal Dem votes

I’m genuinely curious what you mean by MAGA wing, not trying to start some proxy argument with you considering we probably see eye to eye on 98% of political topics and I’m a huge fan of all your NH insights

There is a smaller (but very vocal) part of the KHive that, in my opinion, views the Democratic left as a larger threat than the GOP and would have gladly thrown the election to Trump if Bernie won the nomination. Basically, this group of fans is more concerned with their idea of the Democratic Party than the party's well-being itself.

When I talk about the MAGA wing, I'm talking about the people who promised not to support the Democratic nominee if they were too far left and boosted far-right smears against Bernie and AOC. I'm talking about the people who sent death threats to Bernie, defended the murder at Charlottesville as an "accident", and the people who turn on any politician for praising The Squad. I'm talking about the people who called for a journalist's head because she asked Lisa Murkowski about Neera Tanden's mean tweets.

This wing (which does have nonzero influence) does have some sway and it is a bit troubling. But in the grand scheme of things, it's all just a bunch of Twitter drama that doesn't matter. I think we all know that you're not a part of the MAGA wing.

[JM1295]

Fair. The MAGA wing of the KHive would be a better term for it.

That feels like a low blow but I’ll ask in good faith what you mean by MAGA wing? When I think of MAGA on the left, the closest parallel would be a) ppl who won’t support the Dem nominee because they aren’t left enough b) people who buy into the same sort of conspiracy theories (“DNC rigged the primary against bernie,” “Nina only lost because of dirty Jew money,” etc.) For all of some K-Hiver’s faults, you can’t dispute that they are unfailingly loyal Dem votes

I’m genuinely curious what you mean by MAGA wing, not trying to start some proxy argument with you considering we probably see eye to eye on 98% of political topics and I’m a huge fan of all your NH insights

There is a smaller (but very vocal) part of the KHive that, in my opinion, views the Democratic left as a larger threat than the GOP and would have gladly thrown the election to Trump if Bernie won the nomination. Basically, this group of fans is more concerned with their idea of the Democratic Party than the party's well-being itself.

When I talk about the MAGA wing, I'm talking about the people who promised not to support the Democratic nominee if they were too far left and boosted far-right smears against Bernie and AOC. I'm talking about the people who sent death threats to Bernie, defended the murder at Charlottesville as an "accident", and the people who turn on any politician for praising The Squad. I'm talking about the people who called for a journalist's head because she asked Lisa Murkowski about Neera Tanden's mean tweets.

This wing (which does have nonzero influence) does have some sway and it is a bit troubling. But in the grand scheme of things, it's all just a bunch of Twitter drama that doesn't matter. I think we all know that you're not a part of the MAGA wing.

I wouldn't call them MAGA wing necessarily, but yeah there is this super portion of the K-Hive who exist solely to be anti-progressives and punch the left. This includes only bringing up and referencing Lauren Underwood to tear down AOC, pitting minority women against each other. This also includes minimizing and mocking AOC's trauma about 1/6. It's comical to see them suddenly become huge Carolyn Maloney or Dan Lipinski fans, simply because progressives and left-wing groups opposed them. I won't say that there aren't some left-wing groups and individuals who are toxic and come off as just being entirely anti-establishment just because, without ideological consistencies. It is perfectly fine to be critical of progressives and their policies, but this faction of the K-Hive engages in toxicity that seeks to just attack progressives for no consistent reason.

[Skye]

He ran behind Biden by, like, .2%, which is statistically insignificant.

Given the political profile of PA-17 being such that downballot Democrats typically run ahead of Presidential totals, and sometimes by a lot; even a small overperformance by a Democrat there would be a big red flag as to their electability in a statewide race, let alone an underperformance.

Really, though? Maybe the Beaver County part of the District is like that (and Lamb did run ahead of Biden there by a bit) but the Allegheny County part (and you can correct me if I'm wrong because maybe I'm generalizing) is home to many D-trending suburbs that have well-above average income levels and are relatively well educated (e.g. McCandless); which is the kind of demographic profile where Biden overperformed compared to Cong. Dem. candidates.

[coloradocowboi]

Fair. The MAGA wing of the KHive would be a better term for it.

That feels like a low blow but I’ll ask in good faith what you mean by MAGA wing? When I think of MAGA on the left, the closest parallel would be a) ppl who won’t support the Dem nominee because they aren’t left enough b) people who buy into the same sort of conspiracy theories (“DNC rigged the primary against bernie,” “Nina only lost because of dirty Jew money,” etc.) For all of some K-Hiver’s faults, you can’t dispute that they are unfailingly loyal Dem votes

I’m genuinely curious what you mean by MAGA wing, not trying to start some proxy argument with you considering we probably see eye to eye on 98% of political topics and I’m a huge fan of all your NH insights

There is a smaller (but very vocal) part of the KHive that, in my opinion, views the Democratic left as a larger threat than the GOP and would have gladly thrown the election to Trump if Bernie won the nomination. Basically, this group of fans is more concerned with their idea of the Democratic Party than the party's well-being itself.

When I talk about the MAGA wing, I'm talking about the people who promised not to support the Democratic nominee if they were too far left and boosted far-right smears against Bernie and AOC. I'm talking about the people who sent death threats to Bernie, defended the murder at Charlottesville as an "accident", and the people who turn on any politician for praising The Squad. I'm talking about the people who called for a journalist's head because she asked Lisa Murkowski about Neera Tanden's mean tweets.

This wing (which does have nonzero influence) does have some sway and it is a bit troubling. But in the grand scheme of things, it's all just a bunch of Twitter drama that doesn't matter. I think we all know that you're not a part of the MAGA wing.

I wouldn't call them MAGA wing necessarily, but yeah there is this super portion of the K-Hive who exist solely to be anti-progressives and punch the left. This includes only bringing up and referencing Lauren Underwood to tear down AOC, pitting minority women against each other. This also includes minimizing and mocking AOC's trauma about 1/6. It's comical to see them suddenly become huge Carolyn Maloney or Dan Lipinski fans, simply because progressives and left-wing groups opposed them. I won't say that there aren't some left-wing groups and individuals who are toxic and come off as just being entirely anti-establishment just because, without ideological consistencies. It is perfectly fine to be critical of progressives and their policies, but this faction of the K-Hive engages in toxicity that seeks to just attack progressives for no consistent reason.

Not no consistent reason, they do it because they have a misguided belief in meritocracy being good cuz deep down they want to be like Kamala... a girlboss or whatever. They are neoliberals driven purely by self-interest and most would be Republicans if they weren't Black, women, LGBTQ, etc...

The funniest part is though that they do it all in the name of the candidate who sits in the middle off the Venn diagram for why both progressives and establishment Dems are unelectable, our current VP who was laughed out of the primaries and who will guarantee president DeSantis if she ever follows her own inflated ego to a White House bid.

But in more relevant words, is this primary going to guarantee a Senator Parnell? It is already developing in a really nasty fashion. I honestly think only Fetterman is electable. Kenyatta is a terrible fit for statewide office, Lamb is totally uninspiring to base voters, and Arkoosh is too unknown. But they are all sniping hard at Fetterman and it's hard to see how he wouldn't come out of this without serious reputational damage, especially now that Lamb is in and obviously willing to let any corporation spend whatever amount of money they want getting him elected.

[Meatball Ron]

Fair. The MAGA wing of the KHive would be a better term for it.

That feels like a low blow but I’ll ask in good faith what you mean by MAGA wing? When I think of MAGA on the left, the closest parallel would be a) ppl who won’t support the Dem nominee because they aren’t left enough b) people who buy into the same sort of conspiracy theories (“DNC rigged the primary against bernie,” “Nina only lost because of dirty Jew money,” etc.) For all of some K-Hiver’s faults, you can’t dispute that they are unfailingly loyal Dem votes

I’m genuinely curious what you mean by MAGA wing, not trying to start some proxy argument with you considering we probably see eye to eye on 98% of political topics and I’m a huge fan of all your NH insights

There is a smaller (but very vocal) part of the KHive that, in my opinion, views the Democratic left as a larger threat than the GOP and would have gladly thrown the election to Trump if Bernie won the nomination. Basically, this group of fans is more concerned with their idea of the Democratic Party than the party's well-being itself.

When I talk about the MAGA wing, I'm talking about the people who promised not to support the Democratic nominee if they were too far left and boosted far-right smears against Bernie and AOC. I'm talking about the people who sent death threats to Bernie, defended the murder at Charlottesville as an "accident", and the people who turn on any politician for praising The Squad. I'm talking about the people who called for a journalist's head because she asked Lisa Murkowski about Neera Tanden's mean tweets.

This wing (which does have nonzero influence) does have some sway and it is a bit troubling. But in the grand scheme of things, it's all just a bunch of Twitter drama that doesn't matter. I think we all know that you're not a part of the MAGA wing.

I wouldn't call them MAGA wing necessarily, but yeah there is this super portion of the K-Hive who exist solely to be anti-progressives and punch the left. This includes only bringing up and referencing Lauren Underwood to tear down AOC, pitting minority women against each other. This also includes minimizing and mocking AOC's trauma about 1/6. It's comical to see them suddenly become huge Carolyn Maloney or Dan Lipinski fans, simply because progressives and left-wing groups opposed them. I won't say that there aren't some left-wing groups and individuals who are toxic and come off as just being entirely anti-establishment just because, without ideological consistencies. It is perfectly fine to be critical of progressives and their policies, but this faction of the K-Hive engages in toxicity that seeks to just attack progressives for no consistent reason.

Not no consistent reason, they do it because they have a misguided belief in meritocracy being good cuz deep down they want to be like Kamala...a girlboss or whatever. They are neoliberals driven purely by self-interest and most would be Republicans if they weren't Black, women, LGBTQ, etc...

The funniest part is though that they do it all in the name of the candidate who sits in the middle off the Venn diagram for why both progressives and establishment Dems are unelectable, our current VP who was laughed out of the primaries and who will guarantee president DeSantis if she ever follows her own inflated ego to a White House bid.

But in more relevant words, is this primary going to guarantee a Senator Parnell? It is already developing in a really nasty fashion. I honestly think only Fetterman is electable. Kenyatta is a terrible fit for statewide office, Lamb is totally uninspiring to base voters, and Arkoosh is too unknown. But they are all sniping hard at Fetterman and it's hard to see how he wouldn't come out of this without serious reputational damage, especially now that Lamb is in and obviously willing to let any corporation spend whatever amount of money they want getting him elected.

Bolded the statements in your atrocious post that are patently false, deeply mischaracterizing, or downright offensive. I'm sure I missed some.

[KaiserDave]

Fetterman is a Randy Bryce 2.0, a carciture of a working class democrat that all metropolitan democrats think is exactly what they need to win back rural and working class areas due to this aesthetics despite his policy and rethoric being indistrigushable from a normal progressive. and are then suprised when he flops among those voters.

Fetterman's main issue seems to be legal weed which while broadly popular isn't really an important issue that will allow him to make gains among trump voters. He has never run in actual competitive election beyond his LG primary where he was the sole western PA canidate against 4 philly canidates and his braddock mayor primary.  Braddock is a town that gave Joe Biden 90% of their vote, so it's hardly any indication of cross-over support.

Connor Lamb on the other hand flipped a trump +20% district against a fairly normal repubclain candidate and won another Trump district by double digits in 2018 an incredibly strong perfomance. Even in 2020 his vote share was higher than Biden showing proof that he is able to win over trump and non-democratic voters, despite his margin being lower due to his republcian opponent outperforming trump.

What? No. No. Silly silly comparison.

Randy Bryce was a multiple times failed candidate who came out of nowhere to challenge the House Speaker, why the Wisconsin Democrats got behind this is beyond me, but he did. His past was thoroughly exposed and he was defeated handily. The problem with Randy Bryce was that he was not a known quantity, yes he was picked up by out of state liberals who saw in him a stereotype of the WWC, thinking he could win back Trump Democrats. But the problem is that he came completely out of left field.

Fetterman is a known quantity, literally the current Lieutenant Governor of a large state, and has statewide campaign experience, and by all accounts is trusted and liked by the state party establishment. While it's true he has no proven electoral edge, the idea that his ideology is indistinguishable from an out of state liberal isn't true either, given John's tack on fracking.There is a cheap, lame attempt to turn John Fetterman into Randy Bryce, fortunately the comparison falls to pieces at the slightest scrutiny.

I think the more important point here is that Fetterman, like Bryce, is a caricature of what Dems in blue states think Trump voters look like, and what they want their politicians to look like. "Wow this guy is big, tatooed, and dresses like an auto mechanic - he can definitely swing Trump voters!" Meanwhile their real strength is actually on Twitter, with the meme crowd. Yes, they obviously have different electoral records, but I think Liberal Hack's point still very much stands.

I have no idea how "Fetterman's strength is in Twitter" given that he has very real, very important relationships with Allegheny Democrats, labor, and Governor Wolf.

Wolf isn’t even making an endorsement and there’s been plenty of talk about Fetterman’s lazy campaign (which had cost him endorsements before Lamb even got in).  As for Allegheny, we’ll see who the Pittsburgh Democratic machine ends up backing at the end of the day.  My money’s on Lamb.  Fetterman obviously isn’t a human dumpster fire like Bryce, but it’s certainly not an unfair or off-base comparison by any stretch of the imagination.  

The odds of Fetterman significantly underperforming in the GE are definitely better than the odds of him over-performing generic D.  And again, fundraising aside, he’s run a pretty crappy campaign so far.  While I wouldn’t put money on it, it’s not even hard to imagine a scenario where Arkoosh or even Kenyatta becomes the strongest anti-Lamb candidate and Fetterman kinda just fizzles out.

I'd say Lamb has an edge, and certainly in the Pittsburgh area, but the comparison is still not worth taking seriously. Maybe his campaign is lazy, and maybe he didn't get key endorsements, but that doesn't make a comparison to Randy Bryce remotely sensible. I'm still waiting to hear why the comparison even exists beyond the shallow analysis that they "look white working class."

[Skye]

Did a quick map on Biden vs. Lamb in PA-17. Blue is Biden overperformance, Red is Lamb overperformance. Since their performances were fairly similar (Biden +2.7%, Lamb +2.3%) I used increases of 2% for each shade of color.



As you can see, Biden ran ahead of Lamb in a set of wealthier, well educated suburbs. Examples include Sewickley Heights, Fox Chapel, Franklin Park, among others.

[Utah Neolib]

I support Lamb here, but Arkoosh or Street would be fine too

[MargieCat]

The fact that no notable republicans (ones that actually won their races) are running for this seat and both a sitting democratic representative (Conor Lamb) and the sitting LG (John Fetterman), it makes me think that the GOP doesn't have energy on their side in PA.

There are plenty of republicans in the PA house delegation that can run and make this race competitive.

Parnell, Barnette, Bartos, Gale, and Stern, are all losers (electorally speaking).

[President Johnson]

The fact that no notable republicans (ones that actually won their races)  running for this seat and both a sitting democratic representative (Conor Lamb) and the sitting LG (John Fetterman), it makes me think that the GOP doesn't have energy on their side in PA.

There are plenty of republicans in the PA house delegation that can run and make this race competitive.

Parnell, Barnette, Bartos, Gale, and Stern, are all losers (electorally speaking).

That's a good take. Looks like Toomey really did Democrats a huge favor by retiring.

Still, the Democrats needs to run like they're ten points behind. If partisan winds are too stark, candidate quality alone may not flip the seat in the end.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Biden isn't at 60% Approvals, I would remind D's that D's were leading on GENERIC BALLOT in 2014 until the last weekend in Oct and LOST, Biden is chicken in Afghanistan

CCM is very vulnerable too and so is Warnock he is leading but he needs 50% to win Runoff, and this isn't 2020 where Trump was on ballot


Some models have CCM now losing to Laxalt

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Biden isn't at 60% Approvals, I would remind D's that D's were leading on GENERIC BALLOT in 2014 until the last weekend in Oct and LOST, Biden is chicken in Afghanistan

CCM is very vulnerable too and so is Warnock he is leading but he needs 50% to win Runoff, and this isn't 2020 where Trump was on ballot

Progressive Moderate was right CCM was our weak link not Hassan and we still don't have a poll

Some models have CCM now losing to Laxalt

[Girlytree]

https://mobile.twitter.com/CATargetBot/status/1424796538694356992

David Xu in as a Republican

[wbrocks67]

I've been seeing a lot of Conor's "tour around PA" stuff and I think I'm definitely all in for him at this point.

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/PhillyInquirer/status/1428344079503532035

[walleye26]

Would Lamb eliminate the filibuster?

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Would Lamb eliminate the filibuster?

Yes, he’s been pretty vocal about that

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

If one subscribes to the belief that Conor Lamb is a strong candidate, I struggle to see how one can also argue that Sean Parnell isn't at least average.

Lamb's saving grace for underperforming Biden is that he did it by less than most House Democrats, but even then, he benefited from lagging trends.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

https://mobile.twitter.com/CATargetBot/status/1424796538694356992

David Xu in as a Republican

Who?

[free my dawg]

I am happy to inform you all that my friend is a Keyanetta-wanter.