PA-SN 2022 megathread: Shrek vs. The Wizard of Oz

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Shapiro out:

https://twitter.com/ElectionCenter_/status/1362139784001376256

Yeah, because he's running for Governor

I cannot wait

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I get that some people seem to think the Democratic primary is all that matters in this race (this race seems to be the new poster child for Atlas' "Democratic candidate quality matters, all Republican candidates are clowns" shtick), but no Republican will be "toast" in a general election for federal office in PA in 2022, please get real.

the GOP primary really is under discussed here, however lack of chatter is indicative of the fact that the PA GOP doesn't really have a bench. Yes, they have two row offices now, but they're probably not the best candidates for this seat and are very green. The GOP delegation here is mostly old backbenchers with a few exceptions. It'll be quite interesting to see whom the party GOP will rally around, but there's so many unknowns as of right now.

Comparing the weak GOP bench to the field of talent that the dems have in the state: Fetterman, Kenyatta, Dean, Wild, Cartwright, Shapiro (yeah ik he's not running), Lamb, Boyle, etc

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I get that some people seem to think the Democratic primary is all that matters in this race (this race seems to be the new poster child for Atlas' "Democratic candidate quality matters, all Republican candidates are clowns" shtick), but no Republican will be "toast" in a general election for federal office in PA in 2022, please get real.

the GOP primary really is under discussed here, however lack of chatter is indicative of the fact that the PA GOP doesn't really have a bench. Yes, they have two row offices now, but they're probably not the best candidates for this seat and are very green. The GOP delegation here is mostly old backbenchers with a few exceptions. It'll be quite interesting to see whom the party GOP will rally around, but there's so many unknowns as of right now.

Comparing the weak GOP bench to the field of talent that the dems have in the state: Fetterman, Kenyatta, Dean, Wild, Cartwright, Shapiro (yeah ik he's not running), Lamb, Boyle, etc

Not only that, but whoever the GOP nominee is has to walk a very fine line between winning over swing voters in the Philly burbs/Lehigh Valley/Wyoming Valley and pumping turnout in Pennsyltucky.

I totally disagree. There are plenty messages that unify those groups: low taxes, strong border, defending the police.

Trumpists will certainly turnout and I could see some of the suburban R's not being offended by some generic R

Let me stress that this is a lean R race at best for dems

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Lamb is likely to run.

His district lost some of the most population out of any. he could easily find himself in a Trump +15 district in a GOP year.

He may have no choice but to go statewide. Honestly, he may even want to join Shapiro's ticket as LG or run for senate and if he loses, hope to be the next AG by appointment

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Honestly, I'd be fine with Lamb jumping in. I think he'd be a great statewide candidate. Not sure who I would vote for in Lamb vs. Kenyatta but I know that Fetterman is now #3 on my list.

Why Fetterman so low. Personally, I'm quite undecided in this race

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Lamb’s alleged moderate heroism seems to be entirely built around a single vote on what is, let’s be honest, a niche issue.

Yeah, I’m not super worried about it.

This.

also, him pretending to be moderate on abortion

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Why are people writing off Parnell? He did well in the district against a well known and well liken incumbent

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Why are people writing off Parnell? He did well in the district against a well known and well liken incumbent

Because he's a wing nut and conspiracy theorist who is going to run in the same lane as 10 other, equally unqualified Republicans in the primary?

PA literally voted for Trump in 2016 and he was an unqualified conspiracy theorist. He is far from unacceptable in PA politics

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Why are people writing off Parnell? He did well in the district against a well known and well liken incumbent

He really only rode off of Trumps coattails. Biden and Lamb performed similarly. Not to mention, IIRC, Parnell also raised more/had more $$$ put into the race than Lamb as well.

Also, Parnell has gone way more Fox News wing nut since the election, including pushing the big lie.

Even still to preform as well as Trump against Lamb, a strong incumbent, is nothing to scoff at. Look at Lamb's pervious performances. He's a powerhouse and the fact that Parnell kept it close is a sign he's at least a decent candidate

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Why are people writing off Parnell? He did well in the district against a well known and well liken incumbent

Because he's a wing nut and conspiracy theorist who is going to run in the same lane as 10 other, equally unqualified Republicans in the primary?

PA literally voted for Trump in 2016 and he was an unqualified conspiracy theorist. He is far from unacceptable in PA politics

Yes and nothing has happened between then and now.

I'm not saying he will win. I'm just saying its happened before and it can certainly happen again. The reality is 2022 will be a worse environment for dems than 2016.

People act like a failed house candidate running for senate is crazy. Just ask Senator Perdue

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Parnell will have a hard time explaining his lawsuit and why he expected courts to throw out all mail ballots and have them just declare him the winner in PA-17 and Trump in PA. Don't care about his past service, he is a traitor to this country.

you're grossly over estimating people's ability to remember that. Voters have grown mostly numb to scandals

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Parnell only lost to a Dem incumbent by two points in a district that voted to the left of the state in the presidential race when the national House vote was D+3.  Even in an even popular vote environment, he could easily win statewide.

Not saying you're totally wrong here, but a counterpoint is that he was likely a much better fit for that specific district, PA-17 (even if it voted left of the state overall) than he would be for much of the rest of the state, namely the Philly suburbs. Easy to see him over-performing Trump or the GOP Governor candidate in PA-17 but seriously underperforming them in PA-04, PA-05, PA-06, PA-07, and maybe even PA-10.

Counter point to that: PA-17 is a mostly suburban district. Pittsburgh and Philly burbs aren't the exact same, but he's proven to do well in the suburbs

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https://twitter.com/kirk_bado/status/1397199129915297794?s=21

good. Help keep that seat

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https://twitter.com/PhillyInquirer/status/1406927751723036673

100% forgot she was running. I don't think she is going to go very far. I bet Kenyatta gets more of the collar counties then she does

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I think Arkoosh is underrated here. She has a strong base in Montgomery County, and will probably do better if Lamb doesn’t run

yeah PA politics is hyper regional. If consolidates the collar counties and perhaps some of Lehigh Valley, she stands a shot at winning. Kenyatta will almost certainly take all of Philly proper and I bet Fetterman takes all of the west as he did in his 2018 primary. She raised a decent amount of money too. However, I still think (and hope) Fetterman wins

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Do we think that Lamb possibly saw his district was getting eliminated or expanded too far into Trump territory for it to be winnable? I was playing around with DRA and I think his district lost the most or almost the most amount of people since 2010.

Honestly even with the west PA vote being split he's really got a good shot. He may be the most electable candidate

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Does no one remember 2017, this guy easily scares every GOP operative with a pulse. He's the candidate that has the best chance of winning. Besides one doomed vote on weed, He votes with the party. Yes, he's no Sanders but that isn't what's going to win in 2022

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That’s a lame announcement video, certainly not indicative of a candidate who’s likely to attract a ton of crossover appeal. Much like the R field for OH-SEN, I find the Democrats' bench here (especially Lamb, but also Fetterman) to be fairly unimpressive/overrated, especially given how dominant the two parties have been in their respective states (at the local level, at least). Really think the margins in both races (and most other competitive races, to be fair) will be near-identical to Biden's approval-dispproval spread.

You should see the video of the same announcement, but in Spanish. It's major Beto O'Rourke vibes:

https://twitter.com/ConorLambPA/status/1423620140449546243?s=20

“Pensilvania”

That’s like calling Oaxaca “Wahacka”

that part is silly but good on him for making this

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Toomey could win a divided primary although he might walk away with only 30-35% of the vote