PA-SN 2022 megathread: Shrek vs. The Wizard of Oz

[The Mikado]

I don't really think there's a serious "electability" issue here between Lamb and Fetterman. Both of them could win (or lose) in this basically 50 50 state. I don't really think the candidate matters all that much from that perspective.

I think no matter who's nominated PA-SEN just defaults to "coin flip" and probably remains so until election day. Remember that Toomey won by less than 2 both times, in a very Republican environment in 2010 and a pretty even environment in 2016.

I will say, if the GOP ends up nominating Parnell, a Lamb vs Parnell rematch grudge match would be interesting.

[Calthrina950]

Seeing Blue MAGA rush from Kenyatta to Lamb says all their priorities.

They'd rather stop the left than fight for the Democratic agenda - let alone a progressive one.

Do you believe that Lamb would "stab Democrats in the back" like Sinema has? Or at least, how many have perceived her to have done?

I do. My position is that he says things, but with the way he campaigns, the reasons he's used to justify his votes, and the state's trend, I don't trust him.

Lamb seems to be trying to reposition himself as an "anti-Trump" liberal, judging from his announcement video. He seems to have shifted to the left compared to his earlier days as a Representative, but I suspect that's because he's trying to appeal to the Democratic primary base rather than Trump voters, as he did when he ran against Saccone.

This is essentially my position. Once he has to appeal to Trump voters again everything goes out the window.

But how many Trump voters can Lamb realistically pickup? He decked himself out as a Blue Dog Democrat in his congressional race and barely defeated Saccone. He was reliant upon the left-trending Pittsburgh suburbs for that victory, as Saccone held up in the more Trumpian rural and exurban areas. In a Senatorial race against Parnell, I imagine that Lamb's gains, relative to McGinty, would be concentrated in the collar counties of Philadelphia, Dauphin County, Cumberland County, Lancaster County, and Allegheny County, and that he would lose ground in outstate Pennsylvania. Decking himself out as a Blue Dog again wouldn't help Lamb escape broader trends.

[Pericles]

Lamb beat Saccone in a Trump +20% district and then won by double digits in a Trump 2016 district. His 2020 performance was not as strong, but it was still good and overall he has a good electoral record.

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

I'd bet good money on Conor Lamb voting well to the left of Kyrsten Sinema. I took a good peak at his website and at least it's not full of bipartisanship-for-the-sake-of-bipartisanship BS, and he actually wants to reform the filibuster. He supports a $15 minimum wage, also.

Personally, I think I will be sticking with Fetterman, even though I don't like his position on fracking (and you can't exactly blame Western PA Dems like him for supporting fracking, even though he's with the Bernie wing on mostly everything else). But having Conor Lamb as another vote to reform or eliminate the filibuster would not be a bad thing.

[KaiserDave]

Sticking with Fetterman, but Lamb isn't the end of the world.

[NYSforKennedy2024]

I'd bet good money on Conor Lamb voting well to the left of Kyrsten Sinema. I took a good peak at his website and at least it's not full of bipartisanship-for-the-sake-of-bipartisanship BS, and he actually he wants to reform the filibuster. He supports a $15 minimum wage, also.

I'm getting big "We're gonna paint him as the next Manchin" vibes from the Fetterman crowd, despite the same exact people being huge Conor Lamb fans in the past. Atlas loved him during the Blue Wave.

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

I'd bet good money on Conor Lamb voting well to the left of Kyrsten Sinema. I took a good peak at his website and at least it's not full of bipartisanship-for-the-sake-of-bipartisanship BS, and he actually he wants to reform the filibuster. He supports a $15 minimum wage, also.

I'm getting big "We're gonna paint him as the next Manchin" vibes from the Fetterman crowd, despite the same exact people being huge Conor Lamb fans in the past. Atlas loved him during the Blue Wave.

What a lot of people aren't considering is that Lamb ran and maybe occasionally voted like a Blue Dog to appease his district. For progressives, it's arguably easier to vote more in line with the party as a senator for the entire state rather than as a congressman from the Pittsburgh suburbs.

Lamb specifically thanked unions in his speech after beating Saccone, and acknowledged their role in building the state. You can't say the same about Mark Warner or Tim Kaine, both of whom support/supported RTW in Virginia.

I can even see Lamb being another Sherrod Brown, given the fact that he literally represents people who've lost their jobs to Big Tech, and automation, and bad trade policies. And given Sherrod's long-shot chances in 2024, I really, really hope that's what we end up regardless of who's nominated.

Maybe this is all wishful thinking on my part, but it wouldn't be the craziest thing in the world. After all, Bob Casey, Jr. is now pro-choice.

[NYSforKennedy2024]

I'd bet good money on Conor Lamb voting well to the left of Kyrsten Sinema. I took a good peak at his website and at least it's not full of bipartisanship-for-the-sake-of-bipartisanship BS, and he actually he wants to reform the filibuster. He supports a $15 minimum wage, also.

I'm getting big "We're gonna paint him as the next Manchin" vibes from the Fetterman crowd, despite the same exact people being huge Conor Lamb fans in the past. Atlas loved him during the Blue Wave.

What a lot of people aren't considering is that Lamb ran and maybe occasionally voted like a Blue Dog to appease his district. For progressives, it's arguably easier to vote more in line with the party as a senator for the entire state rather than as a congressman from the Pittsburgh suburbs.

Lamb specifically thanked unions in his speech after beating Saccone, and acknowledged their role in building the state. You can't say the same about Mark Warner or Tim Kaine, both of whom support/supported RTW in Virginia.

I can even see Lamb being another Sherrod Brown, given the fact that he literally represents people who've lost their jobs to Big Tech, and automation, and bad trade policies. And given Sherrod's long-shot chances in 2024, I really, really hope that's what we end up regardless of who's nominated.

Maybe this is all wishful thinking on my part, but it wouldn't be the craziest thing in the world. After all, Bob Casey, Jr. is now pro-choice.

I'll take one Blue Dog Technocratic Populists maintain the House majority timeline, please. 🙏

[TML]

I'd bet good money on Conor Lamb voting well to the left of Kyrsten Sinema. I took a good peak at his website and at least it's not full of bipartisanship-for-the-sake-of-bipartisanship BS, and he actually he wants to reform the filibuster. He supports a $15 minimum wage, also.

I'm getting big "We're gonna paint him as the next Manchin" vibes from the Fetterman crowd, despite the same exact people being huge Conor Lamb fans in the past. Atlas loved him during the Blue Wave.

What a lot of people aren't considering is that Lamb ran and maybe occasionally voted like a Blue Dog to appease his district. For progressives, it's arguably easier to vote more in line with the party as a senator for the entire state rather than as a congressman from the Pittsburgh suburbs.

Lamb specifically thanked unions in his speech after beating Saccone, and acknowledged their role in building the state. You can't say the same about Mark Warner or Tim Kaine, both of whom support/supported RTW in Virginia.

I can even see Lamb being another Sherrod Brown, given the fact that he literally represents people who've lost their jobs to Big Tech, and automation, and bad trade policies. And given Sherrod's long-shot chances in 2024, I really, really hope that's what we end up regardless of who's nominated.

Maybe this is all wishful thinking on my part, but it wouldn't be the craziest thing in the world. After all, Bob Casey, Jr. is now pro-choice.

I’m not sure that’s actually so. He did vote for some Trump-era anti-abortion legislation, and AFAIK he hasn’t publicly walked back his support for overturning Roe v. Wade. His pro-choice voting record stems from his support of Planned Parenthood - he feels that it provides other useful services besides abortion and thus doesn’t want those services to go under.

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

Maybe this is all wishful thinking on my part, but it wouldn't be the craziest thing in the world. After all, Bob Casey, Jr. is now pro-choice.

I’m not sure that’s actually so. He did vote for some Trump-era anti-abortion legislation, and AFAIK he hasn’t publicly walked back his support for overturning Roe v. Wade. His pro-choice voting record stems from his support of Planned Parenthood - he feels that it provides other useful services besides abortion and thus doesn’t want those services to go under.

Didn't he vote against a 20-week ban a year or two ago?

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

“Pensilvania”

That’s like calling Oaxaca “Wahacka”

Um, you do know places can have different spelling in different languages, right?

I mean they can but generally speaking if you’re a resident of a place you call it by the name on the sign. Even when speaking people tend to blend in the English with the Spanish. It just doesn’t make much of sense to say “Pensilvania” as it is literally the same pronunciation as “Pensilvania”. If it was “Nueva York” or “Carolina del Sur” then it’s make sense cause they’re actually language difference.

Also the reverse side of things most American maps of Mexico don’t label states and “Southern South California” or “Saint Louis of Petosi”, most places nowadays are globally called what they’re called by locals*

*(expect for when the non-local term is so embedded it’s basically impossible to remove (German, Greek, Lisbon etc.)

[Lambsbread]

As I’ve said, Lamb is not anywhere near as bad as Sinema or Manchin. He has advocated largely for baseline Democratic positions (except, famously, on marijuana, which his position is ironically probably still to the left of Joe Biden’s) and would not actively sabotage the Democratic agenda. I would be ok voting for him in general. My problem with him, however, is that he is far too bland and by the book for this moment. PA is arguably the most important Senate race and swing state in the country. We deserve better than someone who will just toe the line. This is a competitive primary and primaries are supposed to be (at least in theory) about policy, not electability. I know this is not how the average voter thinks, but someone ought to take up the mantle of picking candidates based on what they will do rather than if they can win. If Lamb wins the primary, he will absolutely be better than any of the wingnuts that the GOP could nominate and it would be imperative for him to win the general. However, that doesn’t mean that I (or anyone, frankly) should vote for him based on some hypothetical electability argument. The perception that he is the only candidate who can win the general is based on no hard data and pure guesses. He’s fine, but he’s not as good as some of the other candidates running and I hope if he does win the primary, he at least embraces some of the positions that Fetterman and Kenyatta are taking and moves a little more left.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Sinema said this on the View https://www.yahoo.com/news/sen-kyrsten-sinema-defends-her-141603223.html

She just wants to exert power in the Reconciliation and Infrastructure as soon as D's get 52 Senators she will unblock everything after 2022 as long as we hold onto H, and Rs aren't gonna win the H if Crist beats DeSANTIS

Everyone thinks Golden and Pappas are going down, Collins isn't on the ballot in 2020,, that's why Trump overperformed ME

She is blocking VR reform that's gonna doom Polquin, LePage chances in 2022, anyways

[Meatball Ron]

Lamb's campaign is already looking like a Major Yikes.

Ideally Fetterman and The Progressives hold his feet to the fire for this lack of support for Pelosi, since that's what seems to work best.

Is the fact that John Fetterman held an unarmed black jogger at gunpoint, and continually tries to justify / refuses to apologize for it, really not disqualifying for you?

I support Kenyatta, FWIW, and also prefer Arkoosh to either of the frontrunners, and would have preferred Dean or Houlahan over either of the frontrunners, but if it comes down to just the two frontrunners, which I suspect it will, I do feel that it has to be Lamb over Fetterman because of the jogger incident (and more importantly, Fetterman's present-day response). Fetterman cannot be trusted to protect black lives. If he gave a serious, mea culpa speech, and decided to center his campaign on issues of racial justice, I'd certainly reconsider.

Also, I feel that Fetterman is a caricature of what blue state Dems think Trump voters look like / want their politicians to look like. The guy has been the face of the opposition to the idea that PA's election was stolen; I can assure you he isn't converting any Trump voters. Not saying he would necessarily lose, but I hate these phony arguments in favor of his supposed electoral prowess.

[windjammer]

I absolutely love Conor Lamb. I will enthusiastically support him.

However I have no problems with Fetterman.

[free my dawg]

Lamb's campaign is already looking like a Major Yikes.

Ideally Fetterman and The Progressives hold his feet to the fire for this lack of support for Pelosi, since that's what seems to work best.

Is the fact that John Fetterman held an unarmed black jogger at gunpoint, and continually tries to justify / refuses to apologize for it, really not disqualifying for you?

I support Kenyatta, FWIW, and also prefer Arkoosh to either of the frontrunners, and would have preferred Dean or Houlahan over either of the frontrunners, but if it comes down to just the two frontrunners, which I suspect it will, I do feel that it has to be Lamb over Fetterman because of the jogger incident (and more importantly, Fetterman's present-day response). Fetterman cannot be trusted to protect black lives. If he gave a serious, mea culpa speech, and decided to center his campaign on issues of racial justice, I'd certainly reconsider.

Also, I feel that Fetterman is a caricature of what blue state Dems think Trump voters look like / want their politicians to look like. The guy has been the face of the opposition to the idea that PA's election was stolen; I can assure you he isn't converting any Trump voters. Not saying he would necessarily lose, but I hate these phony arguments in favor of his supposed electoral prowess.

I've already condemned that specific incident where he held a jogger at gunpoint.

I also don't think that incident should define him and that he has atoned through his actions of support for the black community. Nevertheless, if you think it's disqualifying I'm not going to complain or hold it against you (especially if you're black).

I hope Kenyatta or Lamb hold his feet to the fire for it.

[Orser67]

As of now I'm rooting for Lamb; he seems like he'd be basically an average member of the Senate Democratic Caucus and he has by far the strongest electoral track record, although I won't completely discount Fetterman's win in the 2018 Democratic LG primary. Lamb/Shapiro (assuming he wins the gubernatorial nomination) would also have pretty good regional balance, although admittedly there could be a downside of having two white guys lead the ticket (and to be clear, you could write the exact same sentence about Fetterman/Shapiro).

I might also consider voting for Arkoosh since it would be kinda cool to have a Senator from the PA suburbs (where I live), but county commissioner isn't exactly a great launching point for a Senate campaign and I'd prefer someone younger. I probably won't vote for Fetterman, but he does have an interesting backstory and I'll keep an open mind. I really don't want Kenyatta to win the primary, since I see him as by far the weakest general election candidate of the four most high-profile Dems in the race.

[The Mikado]

Re: the jogger incident, why has the fact that the jogger supports Fetterman for Senate not been brought up here? It seems relevant.

https://twitter.com/laurenhtexas/status/1423710061944352771

I don't have a strong preference myself between Fetterman or Lamb, and I'll leave that to the Pennsylvanians, but I can't see getting hung up over this jogging story if the actual guy in question doesn't get hung up over it.

[Not Me, Us]

I'll echo others' opinions that Lamb really wouldn't be that bad. I don't buy that he would vote like Manchin or Sinema. I would rate Lamb as the favorite for the time being, but Fetterman is obviously still very competitive, and Arkoosh stands to benefit the most from a WEPA vote split. Unfortunately, I think Kenyatta stands pretty much no chance right now. His fundraising has been pretty bad so far and I don't think he'll be able to effectively compete with the money Fetterman, Arkoosh, and Lamb will have. If I were Kenyatta, I'd seriously consider dropping out and running for LG instead. That race is wide open and would have the added benefit of letting vote for both Fetterman and Kenyatta.

[Progressive Pessimist]

I will take either Fetterman or Lamb. Both have different, and seemingly equal, pros that they would offer to help us take this seat back.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

I really want to win this race, and it is in my opinion that the man who was able to flip a Trump +20 district is the most capable.

Unfortunately, with Fetterman also running and Western PA's shrinking influence in D primaries, we'll probably get a nominee like Kenyatta or Arkoosh who will end up losing to Parnell.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

I think Bartos might end up winning the GOP primary tbh

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Fetterman is a Randy Bryce 2.0, a carciture of a working class democrat that all metropolitan democrats think is exactly what they need to win back rural and working class areas due to this aesthetics despite his policy and rethoric being indistrigushable from a normal progressive. and are then suprised when he flops among those voters.

Fetterman's main issue seems to be legal weed which while broadly popular isn't really an important issue that will allow him to make gains among trump voters. He has never run in actual competitive election beyond his LG primary where he was the sole western PA canidate against 4 philly canidates and his braddock mayor primary.  Braddock is a town that gave Joe Biden 90% of their vote, so it's hardly any indication of cross-over support.

Connor Lamb on the other hand flipped a trump +20% district against a fairly normal repubclain candidate and won another Trump district by double digits in 2018 an incredibly strong perfomance. Even in 2020 his vote share was higher than Biden showing proof that he is able to win over trump and non-democratic voters, despite his margin being lower due to his republcian opponent outperforming trump.

[Meatball Ron]

If I were Kenyatta, I'd seriously consider dropping out and running for LG instead.

Kenyatta wouldn't run against Sims - they are the first and second openly gay people elected to the PA House, and more importantly, they're friends. I'd say more likely Kenyatta runs for PA-03 at some point in the future, or Sharif Street's State Senate district.

[ctherainbow]

If I were Kenyatta, I'd seriously consider dropping out and running for LG instead. That race is wide open and would have the added benefit of letting vote for both Fetterman and Kenyatta.

Uhhhh, as another poster has already mentioned, there’s very little chance that Malcolm will drop out and run against Brian for LG.  Brian’s been running since the spring, has had the airwaves entirely to himself, as there are no other major candidates, and they’re friends who represent portions of the same city.  While Malcolm is building a statewide profile at the moment, Brian’s had a national profile for years now, and I don’t see Malcolm winning that matchup.  If he got in, it would more likely just hand the nomination to whatever non-queer Western PA candidate decided to jump in, like Michael Lamb.

I don’t mean to drag the hell out of you, as it’s an interesting thought, but I don’t see it being a plausible path for Malcolm at the moment.