PA-SN 2022 megathread: Shrek vs. The Wizard of Oz
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 28, 2024, 07:54:45 PM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Congressional Elections (Moderators: Brittain33, GeorgiaModerate, Gass3268, Virginiá, Gracile)
  PA-SN 2022 megathread: Shrek vs. The Wizard of Oz
« previous next »
Pages: [1] 2 3 4 5 6 ... 244
Author Topic: PA-SN 2022 megathread: Shrek vs. The Wizard of Oz  (Read 280226 times)
Virginiá
Virginia
Administratrix
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 18,856
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -6.97, S: -5.91

WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: November 12, 2020, 08:19:19 AM »
« edited: July 21, 2022, 08:00:37 AM by GeorgiaModerate »

2022 Pennsylvania Senate election megathread discussion goes here
Logged
They put it to a vote and they just kept lying
20RP12
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 38,236
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.29, S: -7.13

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: November 12, 2020, 09:00:35 AM »

I'm thinking the Dem field for Senate is going to be pretty big. I'm looking at Fetterman, maybe Lamb, Boyle, maybe Torsella, maybe Krasner, maybe Shapiro jumping in. Though any of those folks could just as easily run for Gov--PA's bench is going to be pretty star-studded and deep in '22.

The GOP has a few interesting plays with the likes of Mastriano, Perry, maybe even someone like Charlie Dent (who would get creamed in a primary if he got in but I digress) getting into the fray. I don't necessarily think any of the potential GOP candidates are high profile enough to topple a Dem like Fetterman or Shapiro, though if the Dems go safe and nominate Lamb then I think the GOP may have a shot. Lamb is pretty bland and nearly lost re-election this year.

Anyway, this seat is probably Lean D for now.
Logged
KaiserDave
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,588
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.81, S: -5.39

P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: November 12, 2020, 09:04:33 AM »

Shapiro for Senate, Fetterman for Governor! Cheesy

Logged
Mr.Phips
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,543


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: November 12, 2020, 09:06:00 AM »

Shapiro for Senate, Fetterman for Governor! Cheesy



How about Wolf for Senate and Fetterman for gov.?
Logged
KaiserDave
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,588
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.81, S: -5.39

P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: November 12, 2020, 09:06:29 AM »

Shapiro for Senate, Fetterman for Governor! Cheesy



How about Wolf for Senate and Fetterman for gov.?

Wolf isn't really interested in higher office. He will be over 70.
Logged
wbrocks67
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 21,758


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: November 12, 2020, 09:07:57 AM »

Shapiro for Senate, Fetterman for Governor! Cheesy



Funny enough I think the opposite.. I'd expect Shapiro for Gov and Fetterman for Senate. I feel like the Senate race will be more partisan and Fetterman could appeal more to a possibly more R electorate. But then again, Shapiro will likely be up 5% by the end of it this year when Biden only won by ~1
Logged
KaiserDave
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,588
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.81, S: -5.39

P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: November 12, 2020, 09:08:58 AM »

Shapiro for Senate, Fetterman for Governor! Cheesy



Funny enough I think the opposite.. I'd expect Shapiro for Gov and Fetterman for Senate. I feel like the Senate race will be more partisan and Fetterman could appeal more to a possibly more R electorate. But then again, Shapiro will likely be up 5% by the end of it this year when Biden only won by ~1

I think Shapiro has a better track record winning over R voters. In any case I expect the race to be within 2%.
Logged
SnowLabrador
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,577
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: November 12, 2020, 09:45:54 AM »

Lean R. Biden only won here by about 1%; I think Fitzpatrick would be the GOP's strongest candidate, and they needn't worry about sacrificing a House seat.
Logged
They put it to a vote and they just kept lying
20RP12
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 38,236
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.29, S: -7.13

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: November 12, 2020, 10:08:32 AM »

Shapiro for Senate, Fetterman for Governor! Cheesy

Other way around for me
Logged
I need an explanation
Rookie
**
Posts: 238
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: November 12, 2020, 10:10:12 AM »


I agree that Fetterman should run for senate rather than governor.
Logged
KaiserDave
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,588
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.81, S: -5.39

P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: November 12, 2020, 10:17:18 AM »


I feel like Shapiro is a stronger candidate, and therefore should run for Senate. Fetterman is also Lt. Governor, feels logical he would go for the Gov position.
Logged
wbrocks67
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 21,758


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: November 12, 2020, 10:26:14 AM »

Lean R. Biden only won here by about 1%; I think Fitzpatrick would be the GOP's strongest candidate, and they needn't worry about sacrificing a House seat.

Well, if we're going off of this year, then Shapiro should be the SEN candidate then, since he outperformed Biden by nearly 4% with record GOP turnout.

But yes, realistically, Fitz is probably the best person the GOP has statewide. Their bench is pretty awful.
Logged
Not Me, Us
KhanOfKhans
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,253
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: November 12, 2020, 10:46:14 AM »

Lean R. Biden only won here by about 1%; I think Fitzpatrick would be the GOP's strongest candidate, and they needn't worry about sacrificing a House seat.

Well, if we're going off of this year, then Shapiro should be the SEN candidate then, since he outperformed Biden by nearly 4% with record GOP turnout.

But yes, realistically, Fitz is probably the best person the GOP has statewide. Their bench is pretty awful.

They did pick up two statewide offices this year, so one of them could run.
Logged
TiltsAreUnderrated
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,771


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #13 on: November 12, 2020, 11:06:38 AM »

Lean R. Biden only won here by about 1%; I think Fitzpatrick would be the GOP's strongest candidate, and they needn't worry about sacrificing a House seat.

Well, if we're going off of this year, then Shapiro should be the SEN candidate then, since he outperformed Biden by nearly 4% with record GOP turnout.

But yes, realistically, Fitz is probably the best person the GOP has statewide. Their bench is pretty awful.

They did pick up two statewide offices this year, so one of them could run.

The Treasury isn't confirmed yet.
Logged
KaiserDave
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,588
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.81, S: -5.39

P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #14 on: November 12, 2020, 11:12:53 AM »

Lean R. Biden only won here by about 1%; I think Fitzpatrick would be the GOP's strongest candidate, and they needn't worry about sacrificing a House seat.

Well, if we're going off of this year, then Shapiro should be the SEN candidate then, since he outperformed Biden by nearly 4% with record GOP turnout.

But yes, realistically, Fitz is probably the best person the GOP has statewide. Their bench is pretty awful.

They did pick up two statewide offices this year, so one of them could run.

The Treasury isn't confirmed yet.

Torsella Conceded Sad
Logged
wbrocks67
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 21,758


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #15 on: November 12, 2020, 11:34:48 AM »

Lean R. Biden only won here by about 1%; I think Fitzpatrick would be the GOP's strongest candidate, and they needn't worry about sacrificing a House seat.

Well, if we're going off of this year, then Shapiro should be the SEN candidate then, since he outperformed Biden by nearly 4% with record GOP turnout.

But yes, realistically, Fitz is probably the best person the GOP has statewide. Their bench is pretty awful.

They did pick up two statewide offices this year, so one of them could run.

The Treasury isn't confirmed yet.

Torsella Conceded Sad

The Torsella loss is really sad, too. He won by 5% in 2016 while Clinton lost - even out performing Shapiro. Not sure what happened this year. Straight ticket voting was gone, but he was also the incumbent too. He should not have underperformed Biden.
Logged
2016
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,303


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #16 on: November 12, 2020, 11:51:05 AM »

The Race starts as TOSS UP since it's an Open Seat.

Yes, Mr. Fitzpatrick, it's your turn now!
Logged
ChiefFireWaterMike
LordRichard
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,351


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #17 on: November 12, 2020, 11:57:14 AM »

I don't know a damn thing about PA politics, so would Fitzpatrick be a good nominee for the GOP there?
Logged
wbrocks67
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 21,758


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #18 on: November 12, 2020, 11:59:17 AM »

I don't know a damn thing about PA politics, so would Fitzpatrick be a good nominee for the GOP there?

PA's GOP bench is pretty horrific so Fitz would be their best bet most likely.

They would risk losing PA-01 bc he's really the only thing holding Dems back from getting that seat, but I'm sure they're okay with that trade
Logged
KaiserDave
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,588
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.81, S: -5.39

P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #19 on: November 12, 2020, 12:02:15 PM »

Lean R. Biden only won here by about 1%; I think Fitzpatrick would be the GOP's strongest candidate, and they needn't worry about sacrificing a House seat.

Well, if we're going off of this year, then Shapiro should be the SEN candidate then, since he outperformed Biden by nearly 4% with record GOP turnout.

But yes, realistically, Fitz is probably the best person the GOP has statewide. Their bench is pretty awful.

They did pick up two statewide offices this year, so one of them could run.

The Treasury isn't confirmed yet.

Torsella Conceded Sad

The Torsella loss is really sad, too. He won by 5% in 2016 while Clinton lost - even out performing Shapiro. Not sure what happened this year. Straight ticket voting was gone, but he was also the incumbent too. He should not have underperformed Biden.

I think he got serious flak for obviously seeking higher office and not focusing on his job
Logged
KaiserDave
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,588
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.81, S: -5.39

P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #20 on: November 12, 2020, 12:02:33 PM »

Fitzpatrick has an F from the NRA. It's not going to be him.
Logged
Xing
xingkerui
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 30,303
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.52, S: -3.91

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #21 on: November 12, 2020, 12:03:34 PM »

Lean D seems a bit optimistic to me. While I don't think it's a given that Fitzpatrick will be a good statewide candidate, and Democrats have several options, the environment is still almost certainly going to help Republicans here. I'd still say Tilt R for now, but I hope the PA Democratic posters end up being right.
Logged
Tekken_Guy
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,752
United States


P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #22 on: November 12, 2020, 12:03:50 PM »

I don't know a damn thing about PA politics, so would Fitzpatrick be a good nominee for the GOP there?

Yes, but he’s probably too liberal to win a primary.
Logged
ChiefFireWaterMike
LordRichard
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,351


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #23 on: November 12, 2020, 12:10:16 PM »

I don't know a damn thing about PA politics, so would Fitzpatrick be a good nominee for the GOP there?

Yes, but he’s probably too liberal to win a primary.
Damn it, Toomey, damn you! Costing us a seat.
Logged
2016
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,303


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #24 on: November 12, 2020, 12:12:12 PM »

Fitzpatrick has an F from the NRA. It's not going to be him.
Depends on what year we're going to have IMO. If we have an Anti-Establishment Year in the GOP during 2022 then yes I agree with you it's probably not going to be him.

However if the GOP returns to the Establishment like they did in 2014 when they captured the Senate Majority he will be the Nominee I think. Remember in 2014: McConnell beat Bevin in the Primary, the Establishment pushed out far-right extremists like Ken Buck in CO so that Gardner could win, they threw everything behind Tillis in the NC Primary. That paid dividends in the General Election.
Logged
Pages: [1] 2 3 4 5 6 ... 244  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.054 seconds with 11 queries.