PA-SN 2022 megathread: Shrek vs. The Wizard of Oz

[Lambsbread]

I'm thinking the Dem field for Senate is going to be pretty big. I'm looking at Fetterman, maybe Lamb, Boyle, maybe Torsella, maybe Krasner, maybe Shapiro jumping in. Though any of those folks could just as easily run for Gov--PA's bench is going to be pretty star-studded and deep in '22.

The GOP has a few interesting plays with the likes of Mastriano, Perry, maybe even someone like Charlie Dent (who would get creamed in a primary if he got in but I digress) getting into the fray. I don't necessarily think any of the potential GOP candidates are high profile enough to topple a Dem like Fetterman or Shapiro, though if the Dems go safe and nominate Lamb then I think the GOP may have a shot. Lamb is pretty bland and nearly lost re-election this year.

Anyway, this seat is probably Lean D for now.

[Lambsbread]

Shapiro for Senate, Fetterman for Governor!

Other way around for me

[Lambsbread]

LET'S FREAKING GOOOO!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Lambsbread]

Why did he announce this today--this couldn't have waited for a slower news cycle?

He's only exploring right now tbh but also it's been heavily rumored for like 2 years lol

[Lambsbread]

Then I guess we'll have to agree to disagree here.

About what? Fascism? Fascist enablers? Are we going to "agree to disagree" about the failed coup that the President incited that killed 5 people this week?

[Lambsbread]

Then I guess we'll have to agree to disagree here.

About what? Fascism? Fascist enablers? Are we going to "agree to disagree" about the failed coup that the President incited that killed 5 people this week?

Actually, I believe the president should be impeached or removed from office via the 25th amendment. I also believe it is time for Republicans to move on from him. The party should come down hard on the likes of Mo Brooks and Marjorie Taylor Greene and let the real Republicans like Dan Crenshaw and Guy Reschenthaler take control of the party again.

And not all 73 million people who voted for Trump are fanatical devotees of the president who cheered the coup attempt.

So just to be clear--you think Trump is a threat to democracy and the people who are at the most incredibly extreme end of devotion to him are bad...but the likes of Dan Crenshaw and Guy Reschenthaler are okay? What exactly separates Dan Crenshaw from Mo Brooks in terms of devotion to Trump? In the last 4 years, where have Crenshaw, DeSantis, Reschenthaler, etc deviated from Trump on crucial issues? Because that is an INCREDIBLE distinction you just made.

[Lambsbread]

https://twitter.com/RyanCostello/status/1347618307403362307

He wouldn't even smoke his own primary opponents in the suburbs.

[Lambsbread]

Costello will form an exploratory committee soon.

Cant wait to see him get 10% in the primary and get dunked on by like...Doug Mastriano

[Lambsbread]

Yeah Doug Mastriano is a fascist who should be in prison tbh.

[Lambsbread]

Yeah Doug Mastriano is a fascist who should be in prison tbh.

If, god forbid, he runs and gets the nomination, the race will immediately shift from a Tossup to Likely D. He is as weak as Roy Moore (minus the pedophilia), but in a much less red state.

Nothing surprises me anymore but I hope you’re right. Could be shades of Scott Wagner in 2018 but with an even more extreme candidate.

[Lambsbread]

We're gonna win this thing.

[Lambsbread]

Fetterman and Shapiro are great candidates. Fetterman has run for Senate previously so I think he is kind of doing a "revenge tour" as it were by running for this seat again. Shapiro has been a brilliant AG and seems to have masterful command of PA-specific laws, which would aid him well as Governor. Not to say that Fetterman doesn't and he has absolutely built his brand around being "The Big Dude from Braddock" but he seems to have a much greater focus on a national agenda--M4A, legal weed, etc.--than Shapiro does. They're both great future candidates for POTUS as well

[Lambsbread]

Follow me on Twitter for more PA memes and John Fetterman content

https://twitter.com/moshxlyfe/status/1348997822788546561?s=20

[Lambsbread]

Wasn't Lamb's house seat closer than people expected?

He's also of the age where he could easily jump to another state wide office later on, or just retire and wait for it to come up...

Lamb should try and go for AG when Shapiro (hopefully) is elected Governor.

Too much of a downgrade for Lamb. I assume he'd only take that post as a last resort.

[Lambsbread]

Wasn't Lamb's house seat closer than people expected?

He's also of the age where he could easily jump to another state wide office later on, or just retire and wait for it to come up...

Lamb should try and go for AG when Shapiro (hopefully) is elected Governor.

Too much of a downgrade for Lamb. I assume he'd only take that post as a last resort.

Thoughts on a Cartwright Senate campaign?

I actually like Matt Cartwright a lot. He supports Medicare for All, has been consistently in favor of tax increases on the wealthy, and has generally been very progressive in Congress. I would prefer if he didn't challenge Fetterman in the primary, but it goes to show how deep PA's bench is moving forward. I would hope his district doesn't get messed up during redistricting, but I would absolutely vote for him if he were the nominee for Senate.

[Lambsbread]

Wasn't Lamb's house seat closer than people expected?

He's also of the age where he could easily jump to another state wide office later on, or just retire and wait for it to come up...

Lamb should try and go for AG when Shapiro (hopefully) is elected Governor.

Too much of a downgrade for Lamb. I assume he'd only take that post as a last resort.

Why do you consider it a downgrade for lamb?

Being a state attorney general pales in comparison to being a young, rising star in a crucial district in a swing state. He’s got pretty much a perfect resumé to be a Senator, which is why I think he may run for higher office.

[Lambsbread]

ik it’s not the sexiest thing ever, but if dems want to keep PA competitive, they have to continue to cut into york, lancaster, cumberland, dauphin, lebanon. SEPA is not enough. There a looooooot of people in those five counties combined that I listed, and they are growing, and gop has room to fall further there.

I'm gonna do my part on the ground out here 👍Lancaster especially is demographically shifting to be very favorable for Democrats so hopefully we can make some significant gains out here.

[Lambsbread]

Kenney is just desperately trying to get attention and will float his interest in any office as long as he stays in the headlines.

[Lambsbread]

It is absolutely silly to think Fetterman is “faking” populist credentials just because he went to Harvard. The guy went on to become Mayor of a small industrial city and did his damndest to help revitalize it. He has walked the walk both before and after going to Harvard. He’s not some Pete Buttigieg type who wants you to think he’s some genius with all the answers—he gets in the trenches for what he believes in, and he actually believes in what he talks about.

[Lambsbread]

Ok what prevents the republican from sticking that messaging to him, run ads about his wealthy background and about his left-wing policies, how will he respond to the ads calling him a phony ?

He didn’t have a “wealthy” background. He grew up middle class and has always been middle class. He can respond by saying it was easier for a kid like him to get into Harvard back in the 80s because he didn’t have to worry about going into extreme debt or choosing between college and supporting his family because college has become prohibitively expensive for kids without actually rich parents. He can even talk about the white privilege afforded to kids who grow up middle class who can go to good schools but not minority students because of systemic racism. There, I just knocked out 2 of his main campaign talking points in response to one (dumb) attack ad.

[Lambsbread]

Ok what prevents the republican from sticking that messaging to him, run ads about his wealthy background and about his left-wing policies, how will he respond to the ads calling him a phony ?

He didn’t have a “wealthy” background. He grew up middle class and has always been middle class. He can respond by saying it was easier for a kid like him to get into Harvard back in the 80s because he didn’t have to worry about going into extreme debt or choosing between college and supporting his family because college has become prohibitively expensive for kids without actually rich parents. He can even talk about the white privilege afforded to kids who grow up middle class who can go to good schools but not minority students because of systemic racism. There, I just knocked out 2 of his main campaign talking points in response to one (dumb) attack ad.

yeah because mentioning white privilege is going to go down so well in the WWC areas he's strong in.

Also, like the man literally did not have an income while being mayor of Braddock and was entirely supported by family money.  Imagine the ads accusing him of being a trust-fund baby, let alone attacks on him creating a welfare state in Braddock by giving away houses and a whisper campagin against his wife for being an undocumented immigrant.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gisele_Barreto_Fetterman
https://www.post-gazette.com/local/east/2015/12/18/Fetterman-s-finances-attract-attention/stories/201512180168

I don’t fault you for assuming that Republicans will be racist and misleading in their attack ads, but you seem all too eager to write the ads for them.

[Lambsbread]

https://twitter.com/Laurenjmayk/status/1358862149859311616

Just a wonderful candidate. Enthusiastically endorsed, obviously.

I love this guy so much. Signed up this morning for volunteer opportunities.

[Lambsbread]

I don't live in PA but PASS. Rooting for Conor Lamb if he gets in.

Conor Lamb is a fraud. He voted against a bill to federally decriminalize marijuana because he felt it was a waste of time. Talk about living in the past.

[Lambsbread]

https://twitter.com/Laurenjmayk/status/1358862149859311616

Just a wonderful candidate. Enthusiastically endorsed, obviously.

I love this guy so much. Signed up this morning for volunteer opportunities.

you fetterman arent you?

God, I wish. I have met him though!

[Lambsbread]

If y'all like Fetterman that's fine but you're trying wayyy to hard to make the jogger incident out to be nothing, when I know for a fact people wouldn't be if he was a republican. Private citizens shouldn't be acting like police, how many times have we seen that go wrong. You can argue that it's not disqualifying without defending the action.

This is an important point. We should be noting that the incident was indeed a bad judgement call that could've gotten an innocent man hurt or killed and while context is important, it doesn't excuse the action. That being said, it seems like he has been more than ardent in his support of BLM and criminal justice reform (including marijuana legalization, something that greatly impacts the incarceration rate for people of color) and instead of trying to make it seem like the jogger was blowing things out of proportion, we ought to understand that this can be a moment of poor judgement that is not indicative of an overall trend for his political career.

for all the Fetterman fans, explain the thought process of somebody who voted for Trump in 2016 and 2020 but is likley to support Fetterman ?. Preferably without claiming they're low information or #populists.

I think the best argument is that there are a lot of Obama-Trump voters in places like Erie, Lehigh, Northampton, Luzerne, Lackawanna, etc. that abandoned the party because of the perceived elitism and lack of interest in working class issues. You run a candidate like Joe Biden, someone from NEPA with a history of supporting unions and working class issues, you see what happened this past election--every single one of those counties shifted back towards Democrats. It's also why I think Cartwright would be a good candidate if he were to win the nomination--voters are not strictly ideological or party voters, they want someone that they trust is going to fight for them and be "their voice" as it were. Fetterman's approach from the beginning has been to go to places that Democrats typically abandon and try to talk to voters. I remember his marijuana listening tour was a big hit because he went to all 67 counties and just listened to what people had to say. I went when he came to Lancaster and opinions were divided since we're a more red county, but a lot of folks in places that vote so strongly for one party don't typically get to speak directly to their representatives in a setting like that. I could tell his presence was appreciated. I think that's the long and short of why he could be a good candidate for the GE. Frankly, I think we have a LOT of great candidates for the GE. I wouldn't be upset with any of them (though I would be a bit disappointed if we nominated Lamb) but Fetterman is my preferred candidate for ideological reasons.