2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[Progressive Pessimist]

https://twitter.com/ZekeJMiller/status/1326318648391311361

Can Pat Toomey be swayed to either switch parties (even though he is very conservative and has an atrocious voting record overall) or take a role in the Biden administration given that he is retiring?

Yuck! No thanks!

Taking an cabinet post would allow Pennsylvania Governor Tom Wolfe to appoint a Democrat to Pat Toomey’s Senate seat. I could live with him in a Biden cabinet if that could happen.

I get it, but it's still not something that would ever happen. Toomey is still too conservative for that.

It's really sad that someone as awful as Toomey expressing support for a peaceful transition suddenly makes him a supposed sane Republican.

[BudgieForce]

https://twitter.com/srl/status/1326322097262632962
After all that debate and court cases, there were only 10k ballots in that late arriving narrow window in PA that the Supreme Court had separated but still counted for now. To me, it'd be outrageous if the tossed them since those people clearly made a good faith effort to vote, only to be screwed by a dysfunctional postal service. And I would say that if these were Trump votes.

Are they counted? I was under the impression that PA had counted these ballots but they aren't included in the totals as of now.

[Horus]

Trump rejecting Nancy Pelosi stimulus is looking like a dumber decision day by day

If a stimulus had passed Trump would've won Wisconsin, Georgia, arizona and probably even Nevada.

[Splash]

https://twitter.com/srl/status/1326322097262632962
After all that debate and court cases, there were only 10k ballots in that late arriving narrow window in PA that the Supreme Court had separated but still counted for now. To me, it'd be outrageous if the tossed them since those people clearly made a good faith effort to vote, only to be screwed by a dysfunctional postal service. And I would say that if these were Trump votes.

Are they counted? I was under the impression that PA had counted these ballots but they aren't included in the totals as of now.

That is unclear to me as well. Some reports have indicated that these votes are included in the current tabulations while others have said that they're not...

Regardless, Alito indicated that SCOTUS was more likely to take up the case of whether these ballots should be counted if the number of ballots in question was greater than the margin of victory. It's clear now that's not the case so I think this makes it more likely than not that SCOTUS won't hear the GOP's case in the end.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/srl/status/1326322097262632962
After all that debate and court cases, there were only 10k ballots in that late arriving narrow window in PA that the Supreme Court had separated but still counted for now. To me, it'd be outrageous if the tossed them since those people clearly made a good faith effort to vote, only to be screwed by a dysfunctional postal service. And I would say that if these were Trump votes.

Are they counted? I was under the impression that PA had counted these ballots but they aren't included in the totals as of now.

That is unclear to me as well. Some reports have indicated that these votes are included in the current tabulations while others have said that they're not...

Regardless, Alito indicated that SCOTUS was more likely to take up the case of whether these ballots should be counted if the number of ballots in question was greater than the margin of victory. It's clear now that's not the case so I think this makes it more likely than not that SCOTUS won't hear the GOP's case in the end.

It's my understanding that the segregated PA ballots have not been tabulated (so they're not included in the vote totals reported).

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

So if I'm reading this right, even if the GOP's frivolous law suit in PA was to succeed, it wouldn't alter the outcome one bit?

[Progressive Pessimist]

So if I'm reading this right, even if the GOP's frivolous law suit in PA was to succeed, it wouldn't alter the outcome one bit?

If anything it's more confirmation that they lost fair and square.

[Nyvin]

So if I'm reading this right, even if the GOP's frivolous law suit in PA was to succeed, it wouldn't alter the outcome one bit?

That's what I'm reading, they've never been included in the totals so far.

[GeorgiaModerate]

So if I'm reading this right, even if the GOP's frivolous law suit in PA was to succeed, it wouldn't alter the outcome one bit?

The lawsuit challenging the late-arriving ballots would not change the outcome.  I believe there is another lawsuit in which they are challenging the constitutionality of *all* mail-in ballots and want to throw them out.  That one will get laughed out of court, if for no other reason that it wasn't timely; the GOP had plenty of time to mount such a challenge well before the election.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1325890297390374913


https://twitter.com/SeanTrende/status/1325821178238410752

[Nyvin]

So if I'm reading this right, even if the GOP's frivolous law suit in PA was to succeed, it wouldn't alter the outcome one bit?

The lawsuit challenging the late-arriving ballots would not change the outcome.  I believe there is another lawsuit in which they are challenging the constitutionality of *all* mail-in ballots and want to throw them out.  That one will get laughed out of court, if for no other reason that it wasn't timely; the GOP had plenty of time to mount such a challenge well before the election.

And a court changing the rules of an election "After" ballots are already cast is pretty much unheard of.

[Bootes Void]

mail ballots is legal by state law done back in 2019, there is no legal basis

[GP270watch]

Trump rejecting Nancy Pelosi stimulus is looking like a dumber decision day by day

If a stimulus had passed Trump would've won Wisconsin, Georgia, arizona and probably even Nevada.

Yeah low information and non political junkie voters gave most of the stimulus credit to Trump. Really dumb to not do a second round.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1326328460806025216

That's probably close to the end for Yavapai.  Trump leads it 64-35, so again this drop is a little bit above his vote share but not nearly enough.

[Mike88]

Mohave county also posted some new votes:

Trump 316
Biden 62

Also, Biden surpassed the 5 million mark lead in the national popular vote.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Mohave county also posted some new votes:

Trump 316
Biden 62

84-16.  But that's Trump's best county (he leads 75-24) so even that lopsided result isn't where he needs to be.  And there can't be more than a few hundred left in Mohave now.

[Bootes Void]

Arizona gonna come down to 3-5k Biden lead I think, wow Fox/AP wont make the same mistake again

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

So if I'm reading this right, even if the GOP's frivolous law suit in PA was to succeed, it wouldn't alter the outcome one bit?

The only races it could conceivably matter for are probably some state legislative races that are within a few hundred votes, and even that seems unlikely.

[Mike88]

Mohave county also posted some new votes:

Trump 316
Biden 62

84-16.  But that's Trump's best county (he leads 75-24) so even that lopsided result isn't where he needs to be.  And there can't be more than a few hundred left in Mohave now.

400 or so left in Mohave, it seems.

Scrap that. Mohave has nothing left now.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Arizona gonna come down to 3-5k Biden lead I think, wow Fox/AP wont make the same mistake again

I'll be shocked if it's under 10K in the end.

[Lord Halifax]

Arizona gonna come down to 3-5k Biden lead I think, wow Fox/AP wont make the same mistake again

Only if Maricopa is very favorable for Trump and Pima doesn't give Biden a net gain. Seems unlikely.

[GeorgiaModerate]

The website has updated with the new numbers from Mohave and Yavapai Counties. It looks like Mohave is done and Yavapai estimates 340 left (310 provisionals and 30 to tabulate).

Arizona now has the following estimated ballots left per https://arizona.vote/ballot-progress.html:

Ballots needing signature verification (deadline was 5pm MST today except in 3 counties where it's Nov 12): 4027
Provisional ballots: 30748
Ballots ready for tabulation: 19243

Total: 54018

Updating with these numbers and using the same (very) Trump-friendly assumptions as before:

50% of the ballots needing signature cures will be accepted.
80% of the provisionals will be accepted.
Trump will do 10% better (and Biden 10% worse) than the current margins in each county.  Trump has generally not been doing this well in recent dumps.

With these assumptions, an estimated 45855 of the remaining ballots will be accepted, and Trump will net 6204 from them.  He currently trails by 13510, so would finish behind by 7306.

Of the estimated remaining 54K ballots, 29.5K are in Maricopa and 15.7K are in Pima.  I'm guessing the final margin will be between 15K and 20K for Biden, unless there really is a very GOP-friendly batch left in Maricopa.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Arizona gonna come down to 3-5k Biden lead I think, wow Fox/AP wont make the same mistake again

Remember when Georgia was one of the first states to be called on Election Night '92 and it ended up being the closest state that year?

Or New Mexico being called on Election Night '00 even though it ended up having a closer vote margin than Florida?

These things happen and, luckily, it's not gonna be the difference between 270 for Biden or Trump

[GeorgiaModerate]

Gila County (a Trump county) has revised its estimated votes left to zero.  Doesn't really change much (there weren't that many to begin with).

[Non Swing Voter]

https://twitter.com/srl/status/1326322097262632962

After all that debate and court cases, there were only 10k ballots in that late arriving narrow window in PA that the Supreme Court had separated but still counted for now. To me, it'd be outrageous if the tossed them since those people clearly made a good faith effort to vote, only to be screwed by a dysfunctional postal service. And I would say that if these were Trump votes.

It's fairly outrageous that the GOP gleefully trying to disenfranchise 10,000 people is lost in the overall Pennsylvania story because of all the other atrocities they are committing.