2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[BudgieForce]

So in the NH early town results Trump lost no voters from 2016 but Biden picked up two people who wrote in last time. 

We can't really extrapolate who Biden won over in Dixville Notch since we don't know which resident left since 2016.

And I'll note, you can also look at the midnight results as a 9% improvement for Joe over Hillary's 2016 margins.

[BudgieForce]

https://twitter.com/StuPolitics/status/1323630435625218049

She must follow that Election Wizard from the last page.

[BudgieForce]

All these stressful takes are totally forgetting that Biden is preforming extremely well with independents in the polling

Nobody is forgetting that and even if someone did, there are like 10 of you guys to remind them.

Broward looks better now for Dems but Pinellas and Palm Beach are still very bad. Also, reps doing well in Duval

Pinellas still shows a Dem lead overall... not really changing that much.

Pinellas would also be home to alot of moderate independents and republicans voting for Biden. We saw that in 2016 and 2018.

[BudgieForce]

Wow, it's already Wet The Bed About Florida O'clock?

It's always Wet The Bed O'clock here in Florida. Why do you think we lead the country in plastic mattress cover sales?

[BudgieForce]

Some "results" from Guam (21% of precincts partially reporting):

Biden 54.86%
Trump 42.91%

https://gec.guam.gov/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/2020ge-results-unofficial.pdf

Guam had over 30,000 voters in 2016, so I'm not going  read too much into 3500 votes.

[BudgieForce]

Is it likely that Dems win the Election Day vote in Miami-Dade because Republicans over performed in early voting there?  And because the constituencies there might not trust mail ballots or early voting?

Possibly. We saw stronger dem turnout on the last days of the early vote. We also saw at the Miami Trump rally that a majority of the audience indicated they had already voted.

[BudgieForce]

https://twitter.com/umichvoter99/status/1323694620224720897

I'm not going to pretend to know what I'm talking about but it does seems like election day turnout has slowed abit. It could easily pick up the pace later the day, which is why i'm not going to read into anything.

[BudgieForce]

View of Florida at start of day:

Dem  3,548,112 or 66.6% turnout   +115,416
Rep   3,432,696 or 66.4% turrout    

At 11am (without Sarasota, Miami-Dade, Seminole)

Dem 3,705,868  or 69.9%       -57,563
Rep   3,763,431  or 72.8%

Strong Rep push this morn

Here is the noon report:  (without Sarasota, Miami-Dade, Seminole)

Dem 3,750,868 or 70.7%       -100,880
Rep  3,851,748 or 74.5%%

Florida Report for 1:30


Dem 3,793,231 or 71.5%       -137,145
Rep  3,930,376 or 76.0%

These are the numbers I was asking how this is good for Biden, with Dems having a 140k vote deficit?

Democrats are going to have a vote deficit. They always do. Democrat's goal is to keep that deficit below a certain number. Some here were speculating that number to be -400,000 votes. But no one knows for sure.

[BudgieForce]

Guam update (61% partially reporting, 14k total votes): margin stays pretty consistent since last update at Biden 55.7, Trump 41.5.

Guam update (73% partially reporting, 19k total votes): marginal improvement for Biden to 55.8, Trump at 41.4.

Appears Guam has a similar pro-incumbent bias that Hawaii also has.

[BudgieForce]

There's like 10 conflicting reads of the data here but it sounds less DOOMERY than an hour ago.  Must mean the numbers are looking better for Biden.

For me I just need some idea of what this or that statistic that's being dropped means as this is the first time I've watched the election day vote and it gets aggravating when I'm told to just read 25 pages as if I have the time to do that rather than a quick explanation

Florida R turnout is slowing down relative to D’s as the day progresses.

I mean, isn't this somewhat expected?  Turnout isn't steady across the day, and the GOP was always going to make up the most in the "after work" 4-6pm voters.

I was under the impression that Democrats usually constituted a greater portion of the after-work voters, but I can't say if that's (a) even a thing and/or (b) even a thing in Florida.  

I've also always been under the impression "after work" voting favored democrats.

[BudgieForce]

I think people need to be careful about Florida. It is likely there will be a surge from 5-7 in voting.

Do we have any information on who will vote in those times?

I feel like conventional wisdom is that democrats vote late.

[BudgieForce]

Im going with fiddle. "Going to want to hear" being the give away.

[BudgieForce]

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1323738217384796160

Is this bad?

Nobody knows. Washoe is another county with alot of moderate Republicans.

[BudgieForce]

Those are some weird exit polls.

[BudgieForce]

That's good news for Trump if you think 34% is enough to win.

And assume all 34% think Trump is better at handling the economy.

[BudgieForce]

The FL exit poll also has Trump approval at 54/45, so... it seems this wave may seriously be skewing R

They really shouldnt have released these.

[BudgieForce]

It's pretty apparent the exit polls have too much election day votes and not enough early vote. Or judging from these numbers, no early vote.

[BudgieForce]

Fox releasing their exit polls now.

[BudgieForce]

Yeah, CNN seriously over sampled election day voters. 61% of those sampled voted on election day.

[BudgieForce]

The CNN exit polls look too favorable for Trump. But the Fox exit polls look too favorable for Biden. Might be why Trump's getting hit on betting markets though.

[BudgieForce]

https://results.decisiondeskhq.com/

Decision desk, as fantastic as they are, routinely make mistakes when they report.

[BudgieForce]

Decision Desk back down to 0 votes in Indiana.

[BudgieForce]

did anyone else see Decision desk revoke reporting in jasper and daviess counties indiana?

I think it was a test.

[BudgieForce]

These CNN exit polls are giving me 2016 NY primary exit poll vibes.

[BudgieForce]

Hey gang, what's your thoughts on the classic film Kiki's Delivery Service?

It's my favorite Studio Ghibli movie.