2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[Non Swing Voter]

Panic time

https://twitter.com/umichvoter99/status/1323624088468901888

1) Republicans had a rush at opening but Democrats are now keeping pace.

2) This doesn't include Miami Dade, where there are a lot of outstanding Democratic votes.

[Non Swing Voter]

https://twitter.com/Wizard_Predicts/status/1323625111782596610

That analysis is really pathetic and disingenuous when you consider that the county is probably at near 100% of 2016 turnout prior to Election Day.

[Non Swing Voter]

https://twitter.com/StuPolitics/status/1323630435625218049

Well I guess we will find out once and for all which channel is fake news because we're getting two completely different versions of reality. 

[Non Swing Voter]

Holy crap, he sounds so awful

https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1323610271219437569

what does it mean??

[Non Swing Voter]

I hope he isn't alone:

https://twitter.com/MoniqueOMadan/status/1323622245437243393

Pedro restoring the soul of America.

[Non Swing Voter]

20,000 votes an hour today in Harris County, TX.

[Non Swing Voter]

Wow, it's already Wet The Bed About Florida O'clock?

The Florida panic trolls now own waterbeds. 

[Non Swing Voter]

The big unknown about Florida right now is Miami Dade.  Dems have A LOT of room for growth there.  High Election Day turnout there would seem to benefit them at this point.  Anyone know what's going on with turnout there?

[Non Swing Voter]

The frustrating thing is that it was clearly explained since EV that the key to winning Florida is to keep the electorate under R+4 by getting higher Dem turnout then 2016 which is what seems to be happening. It’s gonna be close as always but nothing so far really points away from a Biden +2 victory which is what the average is

Right.  nothing short of Dems winning battleground states by 10+ will make some people here happy.

[Non Swing Voter]

The big unknown about Florida right now is Miami Dade.  Dems have A LOT of room for growth there.  High Election Day turnout there would seem to benefit them at this point.  Anyone know what's going on with turnout there?

Nothing from Miami Dade so far today it seems..........

Given how every other county is voting today, it doesn't seem farfetched to think Miami-Dade's ED vote has been R-leaning so far.

Except Miami Dade was one of the few counties where Republicans substantially over performed in the early vote.  So there's just not nearly as many Republicans left to vote there.  

[Non Swing Voter]

Is it likely that Dems win the Election Day vote in Miami-Dade because Republicans over performed in early voting there?  And because the constituencies there might not trust mail ballots or early voting?

[Non Swing Voter]

Does James Comey think we all forgot about the stunt he pulled in 2016?  Just because Trump's an ungrateful prick who has since shunned him doesn't mean we're taking him in.

[Non Swing Voter]

I think it's clear that TURNOUT IS STRONG EVERYWHERE.  Now even Miami Dade.

[Non Swing Voter]

Do any states besides Florida report turnout numbers during the day?  Particularly Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin?

[Non Swing Voter]

i'm LOVING the complete contradictory takes on turnout, it's hilarious. People, we have no idea who's leading based on these turnout numbers! Both sides need to chill out.

My reasons for being fairly confident have been laid out. Let’s wait and see but I suspect I’m gonna be cheering this evening

What are you confident about again? 

[Non Swing Voter]

So far the numbers seem to support Biden's narrow early vote leads getting overwhelmed by election day turnout.

No?

So no elaboration? Simply denial? That doesn't seem like a confident answer as much as a self-convincing one.

Have you read the thread at all?

I'm not the most qualified person here to analyze this (for example RI is literally a professor who researches this stuff), but Republicans likely need to finish ~400,000 votes ahead to win Florida and they're not there yet. Maybe they'll get there by tonight, but they've probably had their biggest bump of the day.

If turnout is not going to save Trump, he likely now only wins if one of these widely believed and supported assumptions are wrong:
-Independents prefer Biden to Trump by a comfortable margin.
-There are more Republican votes for Biden than Democratic votes for Trump.

Where does the 400k number come from?  I agree that it's highly unlikely they end up 400k at this rate but why are you sure they need that much of a cushion??

[Non Swing Voter]

i'm LOVING the complete contradictory takes on turnout, it's hilarious. People, we have no idea who's leading based on these turnout numbers! Both sides need to chill out.

My reasons for being fairly confident have been laid out. Let’s wait and see but I suspect I’m gonna be cheering this evening

What are you confident about again? 

Biden taking Florida

Can you give a 2 sentence summary of why you think that's going to happen?  

[Non Swing Voter]

Trump just pulled together all his genius in one moment to conclude:

"Winning is easy, losing is hard."

What was that little Arlington gathering about?

[Non Swing Voter]

i'm LOVING the complete contradictory takes on turnout, it's hilarious. People, we have no idea who's leading based on these turnout numbers! Both sides need to chill out.

My reasons for being fairly confident have been laid out. Let’s wait and see but I suspect I’m gonna be cheering this evening

What are you confident about again? 

Biden taking Florida

Can you give a 2 sentence summary of why you think that's going to happen?  

My explanation is on the previous page but the two main points are that the R ballot lead is not growing anywhere near fast enough and a conservative estimate on NPAs breaking for
Biden gets him across the line.

Seems about right, I just think it's hard to estimate exactly how many votes R's need to be ahead in terms of party turnout to win. 400k seems too high.

[Non Swing Voter]

i'm LOVING the complete contradictory takes on turnout, it's hilarious. People, we have no idea who's leading based on these turnout numbers! Both sides need to chill out.

My reasons for being fairly confident have been laid out. Let’s wait and see but I suspect I’m gonna be cheering this evening

What are you confident about again? 

Biden taking Florida

Can you give a 2 sentence summary of why you think that's going to happen?  

My explanation is on the previous page but the two main points are that the R ballot lead is not growing anywhere near fast enough and a conservative estimate on NPAs breaking for
Biden gets him across the line.

Seems about right, I just think it's hard to estimate exactly how many votes R's need to be ahead in terms of party turnout to win. 400k seems too high.

I thought Nate Silver also said the 400k number
I could be wrong, I remember someone of note also saying it on twitter this morning

Interesting.  I thought he was of the "turnout numbers don't matter at all" mindset.

I mean, if it really is 400k that the GOP needs to feel safe in Florida then they're screwed.  It just seems high to me.

[Non Swing Voter]

I started this Election Day with a covid-19 rapid test, after being exposed last Thursday and experiencing what I thought was allergy symptoms this past weekend (I assumed so because it was before I knew I'd been exposed).

The test showed negative, and I'm praying it wasn't a false negative.

While reading about possible riots on the streets tonight.



This is Trump's America.

Somehow Trump convinced 40% of the country that the riots are because of private citizen Joe Biden.

[Non Swing Voter]

The 5 most populous counties in Florida all appear to already be way above their 2016 vote totals.  Particularly Orange and Broward.

[Non Swing Voter]

There's like 10 conflicting reads of the data here but it sounds less DOOMERY than an hour ago.  Must mean the numbers are looking better for Biden.

[Non Swing Voter]

Another big question mark in Florida now is the crossover votes. It’s being hyped up that Biden is getting a nice amount of crossover votes from senior Republican voters so we’ll have to wait and see on that. I also personally believe there will be less Democratic crossover votes for Trump this year because a lot of Dixiecrats have changed their registrations to Republican since 2016.

I read somewhere, but I'm not sure of the validity. That 16% in Sumter county Republicans voted for Biden compared to 10% Dems for Trump.

If that's true then Trump has no chance of winning most of the swing states.

[Non Swing Voter]

Tick tock. Not much time left for Trump to get to 400,000.

Or even 300k.

To clarify, Trump doesn't necessarily need +300k or +400k to win FL; he could win it with fewer. Failing to reach those targets makes the road much more difficult and likely makes him the underdog, however.

He's definitely not making it to either of those numbers IMO.  Unless the updates aren't close to current.