2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[Ferguson97]

Maybe we shift to the Discord server since the site will inevitably crash?

[Ferguson97]

Joe Biden will restore the soul of America

[Ferguson97]

Holy crap, he sounds so awful

https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1323610271219437569

[Ferguson97]

Hey CNN, stop trying to make "tossup Colorado" happen... it's not going to happen

[Ferguson97]

All these stressful takes are totally forgetting that Biden is preforming extremely well with independents in the polling

LOL this is Florida.

It shouldn’t even have been a tossup. NC I can understand but anyone who thinks Biden is touching FLA or GA really needs... a diffrent hobby

Oh my god, I hope you cry when Biden wins GA and FL

[Ferguson97]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1323663665967603713

Terrible news for Trump

[Ferguson97]

People on Predictit are going wild thinking Florida is in the bag for Trump.

Now I'm even more confident Biden will win it

[Ferguson97]

So are these Florida numbers good or no?

[Ferguson97]

https://twitter.com/joeyhbanks/status/1323695024253636609
might be slowing down

So adjusting for Sarasota, you’re under 20k/hr for the GOP now

Is Sarasota dem or gop friendly?

Sarasota COUNTY? GOP friendly.  Lots of white retirees there.  

You think this makes it easier for Biden to win?

[Ferguson97]

GOP Florida Turnout advantage at the end of early voting was around -129,000

2:41 Pm update: +133,11 (not including a few counties that manually report including Miami-Dade
In Miami, Dems entered today with 40.7% of votes cast being Democrats, 30.7% Republicans.
Today, 35% Dems, 31% republicans.

GOP outperforming 2016 turnout in wwc areas and latinx areas and Dems doing well in Suburbia, especially Seminole.

Florida is an enigma. No matter what, a candidate makes gains with one group and loses ground in another. It's astonishing. It's like the people of Florida have some unspoken agreement to make every race under 2%.

[Ferguson97]

What's Arizona looking like?

[Ferguson97]

https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/status/1323712802805067776

[Ferguson97]

I think people need to be careful about Florida. It is likely there will be a surge from 5-7 in voting.

Wouldn't this just increase the Democrats' lead since they tend to vote after work and Republicans vote before?

[Ferguson97]

Seems like GOP turnout advantage will end up being about 200k in Florida.  What does this mean?

Hard to say, but this guy seems to think Republicans would need about 400K? Unless I'm interpreting this wrong.

https://twitter.com/steveschale/status/1323368485867716620

[Ferguson97]

https://mobile.twitter.com/redistrict/status/1323730327458795529?s=21

Has... has he seen enough?

[Ferguson97]

On the topic of Georgia, for those interested:

Anecdotal

Spoke to a close friend who works in the Athens GOP.

Party is feeling fairly confident about their stance in the Special, but increasingly worried about the Perdue/Ossoff race, expecting an overperformance by Libertarian Shane Hazel. Noted that some prominent local Republicans themselves say they are a fan of him. They're generally worried about the Biden/Trump race on the state level, though Clarke went strong for Hillary in '16.

The special is going to a runoff regardless. What is there to feel optimistic about? Or is it that they expect the Republican they want to win will make the runoff?

Lol I really don't think Loeffler will beat Warnock

[Ferguson97]

Honestly, exit polls should be tossed out this year.

No they shouldn't. I want to see the Black male vote, the White male vote, I want to see the Latina vote.

I want to know if the Mexican-American women will vote Trump, because a lot of them are Trumper (Telemundo, Univision talk show hosts, etc.)

I think you misunderstand. Exit polls are not going to be reliable this year because like 1/3 of Americans voted by mail, and disproportionately for Biden.

[Ferguson97]

https://twitter.com/VaughnHillyard/status/1323721672097062912

Awful news for Trump

[Ferguson97]

So is no one else concerned about those voters Trump GAINED in Guam?

How many electoral votes does Guam have again?

[Ferguson97]

ATLAS 5 MINUTES AGO: Don't extrapolate from the initial exit polls!! They're extra crappy this year!

ATLAS NOW: Extrapolating from the early exit polls...

[Ferguson97]

Why are exit polls useless this year?

Because of the partisan divide between mail-in voters and Election Day voters? This isn't hard.

[Ferguson97]

Biden Official says FLORIDA IS A TOUGH LIFT?

Doesn't square up with the data we're seeing, so I'm guessing it's to lower expectations

[Ferguson97]

Ah....I will enjoy watching Atlas stomach the doomers being right.

Mask off, huh? I honestly think you want Trump to win.

[Ferguson97]

Get ready for Indiana doomposting when the early votes disproportionally favor Republicans because mail-in ballots aren't being counted yet

[Ferguson97]

https://twitter.com/BoKnowsNews/status/1323756354062950401