2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[Dr. Arch]

Will exit polling account for all the early votes?

[Dr. Arch]

Will exit polling account for all the early votes?

I believe so. They've been exit polling during the early vote this year instead of calling people to ask how they early voted.

Makes sense. Thanks.

[Dr. Arch]

https://twitter.com/Wizard_Predicts/status/1323625111782596610

Comparing ED votes only is useless this time around for obvious reasons. Either way, it's way too early.

[Dr. Arch]

In WI, almost 100% of Madison absentee ballots have been returned, with more trickling in.

https://mobile.twitter.com/MadisonWIClerk/status/1323606947493457921

[Dr. Arch]

View of Florida at start of day:

Dem  3,548,112 or 66.6% turnout   +115,416
Rep   3,432,696 or 66.4% turrout    

At 11am (without Sarasota, Miami-Dade, Seminole)

Dem 3,705,868  or 69.9%       -57,563
Rep   3,763,431  or 72.8%

Strong Rep push this morn

Here is the noon report:  (without Sarasota, Miami-Dade, Seminole)

Dem 3,750,868 or 70.7%       -100,880
Rep  3,851,748 or 74.5%%

When do Sarasota, Miami-Dade, and Seminole start to provide regular updates, or do they just don't?

[Dr. Arch]

View of Florida at start of day:

Dem  3,548,112 or 66.6% turnout   +115,416
Rep   3,432,696 or 66.4% turrout    

At 11am (without Sarasota, Miami-Dade, Seminole)

Dem 3,705,868  or 69.9%       -57,563
Rep   3,763,431  or 72.8%

Strong Rep push this morn

Here is the noon report:  (without Sarasota, Miami-Dade, Seminole)

Dem 3,750,868 or 70.7%       -100,880
Rep  3,851,748 or 74.5%%

Florida Report for 1:30


Dem 3,793,231 or 71.5%       -137,145
Rep  3,930,376 or 76.0%

These are the numbers I was asking how this is good for Biden, with Dems having a 140k vote deficit?

I don't know how many times it has to be said that we can't extrapolate from party registration alone, especially when like 20% of the electorate does not register with either party. This goes for any state with party registration, except, maybe, Nevada.

[Dr. Arch]

View of Florida at start of day:

Dem  3,548,112 or 66.6% turnout   +115,416
Rep   3,432,696 or 66.4% turrout    

At 11am (without Sarasota, Miami-Dade, Seminole)

Dem 3,705,868  or 69.9%       -57,563
Rep   3,763,431  or 72.8%

Strong Rep push this morn

Here is the noon report:  (without Sarasota, Miami-Dade, Seminole)

Dem 3,750,868 or 70.7%       -100,880
Rep  3,851,748 or 74.5%%

Florida Report for 1:30


Dem 3,793,231 or 71.5%       -137,145
Rep  3,930,376 or 76.0%

These are the numbers I was asking how this is good for Biden, with Dems having a 140k vote deficit?

That conclusion is based on two assumptions:

- That there are more registered Republicans willing to vote for Biden than registered Democrats willing to vote for Trump

- That the NPA/Other vote is made up of independents who will break for Biden

If you accept both of these assumptions*, and you interpolate from 2016 what the threshold for victory will be in terms of raw votes, then you can draw a conclusion about whether this is good or bad for Biden.

*There is evidence (polling data) that corroborates these assumptions.

Thank you, this gives an actual explanation (as I don't know a lot about election day returns pre-count) rather than simply complaining that the question's being asked.

The question has been asked and addressed to similar detail at least half a dozen times since VBM and Early In-Person Voting started.

[Dr. Arch]

https://mobile.twitter.com/redistrict/status/1323730327458795529?s=21

Just tell us. F***k you.

lmao

[Dr. Arch]

https://mobile.twitter.com/paulheintz/status/1323732725250088960
FF Phil Scott

ICON LIVING

FF!!

[Dr. Arch]

Kenton, KY is blue so far!

[Dr. Arch]

This is ED vote in Miami-Dade according to John King.

[Dr. Arch]

People are getting hazed by the EDay and Early Vote disparity in different states. MI is very clearly ED votes right now (and very little of it).

[Dr. Arch]

I warned you all.

Even if you're right, I'm done with you, MModerate, etc. Enjoy the ignore list forever.

[Dr. Arch]

Biden getting destroyed in Macomb

2% of the vote in is early vote...

[Dr. Arch]

Practically all of the rural vote in GA is already in. The remaining 20+% of the vote is extremely D friendly.

[Dr. Arch]

Practically all of the rural vote in GA is already in. The remaining 20+% of the vote is extremely D friendly.

I want to believe.

Interesting point if it transfers to PA and MI.

WI, MI, and PA have barely touched their absentee ballots. We're talking >million votes in each state.

[Dr. Arch]

https://twitter.com/PeterSweden7/status/1323868120453423105?s=20

Citation needed, obviously. Sigh.

Literally false

[Dr. Arch]

When is the big Milwaukee absentee drop happening? This would go a long way to calming my nerves.

Around 5:00 AM, maybe a bit earlier.

[Dr. Arch]

Trump is going to win. He's leading in every uncalled state other than NV, AZ, and Maine.

Over a million votes left in D friendly areas in PA. Similar dynamics ongoing in MI and WI.

[Dr. Arch]

Milwaukee has gotta have more than 100,000 ballots left. We're at 250,000 which is down over 150,000 ballots from 2016. And i doubt turnout is down in Miwaukee. Hoping there is close to 200,000 absentee ballots left.

There's a fair bit of absentee left in other D counties in WI.

[Dr. Arch]

Biden about to net 9k before the Milwaukee vote dump.

Cassidy Williams
@CassidyWtv
BREAKING: after all three machines tabulated

19,700- Biden
10,103-Trump

The absentee ballots in Kenosha are not enough to take over the county for Biden. Final results should be on the county website soon

That makes the lift a lot easier for the vote dump. These are partially promising signs. If what's remaining in Brown is Green Bay city proper, then WI is likely gone for Trump at that point.

[Dr. Arch]

When is the Milwaukee vote dump?

A couple minutes now

[Dr. Arch]

It’s like a reverse 2016 except Biden wins.

It would be at least some poetic justice for all that's happened.

[Dr. Arch]

MKE still has over 20% of votes left! I think that this is it. Biden flips WI.

[Dr. Arch]

MKE still has over 20% of votes left! I think that this is it. Biden flips WI.

I had the impression all MKE was getting uploaded at once, but it says like you say on CNN? Can you confirm this?

EDIT: Maybe in person MKE, which would still favor Biden quite comfortably.

Correct. This is an Evers-style victory, most likely.