2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1326282740338057217

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

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Dumb figure.  Tens of millions of Trump voters live in the Blue counties (and many of them higher-earning than their Democratic neighbors.)

Was waiting for this argument to happen and it's complete BS.  The Trump voters in those blue counties tend to be the same kinds of unproductive members of society as the ones in red counties.  

No.  GDP is just a proxy for urbanity.  Trust me, the >1M GOP voters in Los Angeles and Cook County are much, much more productive members of society than the >1M Biden voters living in the Black Belt or on Native American reservations  

You cannot infer how much someone *contributes to society just by their vote

The exit polls are already showing Biden won the 100K+ vote.  

Biden won the <$50k household income bracket by an even larger margin.  So what does that say about your point?  Democrats are obviously the party of the poors, right?  lol

Republicans are still overwhelmingly the party of the salaried, middle to upper-middle class.  If you're middle-aged, White, college-educated, suburban, Christian, and married with kids at home - you're most likely a Republican.  It's only when a voter deviates from one of these "median" characteristics that he becomes a likely Democrat voter

Democrats have an "hourglass" coalition that attracts extremes from both sides of the spectrum.  It's why their fundraising and messaging are dominated by Ivy-educated elites in big cities but the actual *votes they need to get elected are a lot browner and poorer than the party's apparatus would suggest.

Yes, we are the party of "the poors" as you so eloquently refer to as, and we are very proud of that

[pppolitics]

https://twitter.com/stphnfwlr/status/1326270295641104386

Note the second line of the heading: "George" Secretary of State.

Someone should ask Republicans why, since the state of Georgia is under Republican's control, that voter fraud continues to happen.

[Del Tachi]

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Dumb figure.  Tens of millions of Trump voters live in the Blue counties (and many of them higher-earning than their Democratic neighbors.)

Was waiting for this argument to happen and it's complete BS.  The Trump voters in those blue counties tend to be the same kinds of unproductive members of society as the ones in red counties. 

No.  GDP is just a proxy for urbanity.  Trust me, the >1M GOP voters in Los Angeles and Cook County are much, much more productive members of society than the >1M Biden voters living in the Black Belt or on Native American reservations    

You cannot infer how much someone *contributes to society just by their vote

The exit polls are already showing Biden won the 100K+ vote. 

Biden won the <$50k household income bracket by an even larger margin.  So what does that say about your point?  Democrats are obviously the party of the poors, right?  lol

Republicans are still overwhelmingly the party of the salaried, middle to upper-middle class.  If you're middle-aged, White, college-educated, suburban, Christian, and married with kids at home - you're most likely a Republican.  It's only when a voter deviates from one of these "median" characteristics that he becomes a likely Democrat voter

Democrats have an "hourglass" coalition that attracts extremes from both sides of the spectrum.  It's why their fundraising and messaging are dominated by Ivy-educated elites in big cities but the actual *votes they need to get elected are a lot browner and poorer than the party's apparatus would suggest.

Yes, we are the party of "the poors" as you so eloquently refer to as, and we are very proud of that

The sarcasm I was using to reply to NWV's elitist post is apparently lost on you

[Smash255]

Can be ticked up slightly considering Nassau will be in Biden's column once the mail in vote is counted.

[Bootes Void]

I frankly don't join that sneering view of the white working class quite so much. That point can simply be limited to as I noted that Republican series about effect of liberal Progressive governance and supposed to struction of wealth production simply don't comport with reality. Even closely. At all.

I'm more concerned that these poor and working-class whites are supporting Trump not because they give a rat's ass about Republican Economic Policy, but because they don't believe there's any meaningful distinction between the parties on that front. That said, I am not convinced it all by the left wings argument all they need to do is run a Bernie Sanders style Democratic socialists and these working-class whites will Rush to embrace real economic change.

https://twitter.com/forevertawl/status/1294424061590867968

Imagine posting this braindead meme.

Democrats consistently offer excellent solutions for the working class and the white working class tells them go to hell.

I would say it just as condescending to prevent that only "you" can speak for the working class but no one else does. Nobody gets to 75-80 million votes just off the backs of rich people

[Gass3268]

Sad it came to this, but a good result none the less:

https://twitter.com/JesseRodriguez/status/1326292493852422144?s=20

[ProgressiveModerate]

Sad it came to this, but a good result none the less:

https://twitter.com/JesseRodriguez/status/1326292493852422144?s=20

Stop posting suppression polls!

[Beet]

Sad it came to this, but a good result none the less:

https://twitter.com/JesseRodriguez/status/1326292493852422144?s=20

Stop posting suppression polls!

I mean, I totally agree Biden won, but the fact that people are still uncritically posting polls after what happened last Tuesday is pretty remarkable.

[Gass3268]

Sad it came to this, but a good result none the less:

https://twitter.com/JesseRodriguez/status/1326292493852422144?s=20

Stop posting suppression polls!

I mean, I totally agree Biden won, but the fact that people are still uncritically posting polls after what happened last Tuesday is pretty remarkable.

Give Trump 3 points (the amount the national polls were off), how much does that change? Don't be obtuse!

[Bootes Void]

remember this?
https://twitter.com/ECaliberSeven/status/1326103002206380033

[GeorgiaModerate]

The website has updated with some new numbers from Pinal County. Arizona now has the following estimated ballots left per https://arizona.vote/ballot-progress.html:

Ballots needing signature verification by 5pm MST today: 4230
Provisional ballots: 31373
Ballots ready for tabulation: 20583

Total: 56186

Updating with these numbers and using the same (very) Trump-friendly assumptions as before:

50% of the ballots needing signature cures will be accepted.
80% of the provisionals will be accepted.
Trump will do 10% better (and Biden 10% worse) than the current margins in each county.  Trump has generally not been doing this well in recent dumps.

With these assumptions, an estimated 47796 of the remaining ballots will be accepted, and Trump will net 7287 from them.  He currently trails by 14213, so would finish behind by 6926.

Of the estimated remaining 56K ballots, 29.5K are in Maricopa and 15.7K are in Pima.  I'm guessing the final margin will be between 15K and 20K for Biden, unless there really is a very GOP-friendly batch left in Maricopa.

With the signature cure deadline coming up in half an hour, expect a flurry of updating on the website.

[DrScholl]

remember this?
https://twitter.com/ECaliberSeven/status/1326103002206380033

Never saw this article, but this logic would explain the difference variance between the midterm and the presidential. This is why Republicans are backing Trump up on his fraud claims, because they know that this Trump exclusive voters could leave the electorate after he is gone.

[GeorgiaModerate]

I love this metaphor:

https://twitter.com/gtconway3d/status/1326271021025013768

[dspNY]

Just curious as to how much is left to count in PA and GA? It can't be much in each of those states. We know that there are about 56K left to count in AZ

[brucejoel99]

remember this?

https://twitter.com/ECaliberSeven/status/1326103002206380033

She ought to be put in charge of the DCCC yesterday.

[pppolitics]

Just curious as to how much is left to count in PA and GA? It can't be much in each of those states. We know that there are about 56K left to count in AZ

...but AZ only counts like 5 votes a day

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

[Bootes Void]

Just curious as to how much is left to count in PA and GA? It can't be much in each of those states. We know that there are about 56K left to count in AZ

I heard a while back we should see 100k lead for Biden in Pa before looking at late arriving mail ballots set aside. Im not sure how much is left but most of it is not good for Trump anyway

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

I frankly don't join that sneering view of the white working class quite so much. That point can simply be limited to as I noted that Republican series about effect of liberal Progressive governance and supposed to struction of wealth production simply don't comport with reality. Even closely. At all.

I'm more concerned that these poor and working-class whites are supporting Trump not because they give a rat's ass about Republican Economic Policy, but because they don't believe there's any meaningful distinction between the parties on that front. That said, I am not convinced it all by the left wings argument all they need to do is run a Bernie Sanders style Democratic socialists and these working-class whites will Rush to embrace real economic change.

https://twitter.com/forevertawl/status/1294424061590867968

Imagine posting this braindead meme.

Democrats consistently offer excellent solutions for the working class and the white working class tells them go to hell.

TBF, I wouldn’t be shocked to find that allot of this is because we’ve decided to use education status rather than income or job conditions. A good number of these ‘working class’ Republicans are making comfortable livings off of specialized trades or small businesses and a good number of the ‘middle class professionals’ are people living paycheck to paycheck in urban areas.

[Inmate Trump]

https://twitter.com/stphnfwlr/status/1326270295641104386

Note the second line of the heading: "George" Secretary of State.

These people won’t be happy unless our Secretary of State actually alters the vote count.

Republicans are the enemy of the people.

[Hammy]

Sad it came to this, but a good result none the less:

https://twitter.com/JesseRodriguez/status/1326292493852422144?s=20

Stop posting suppression polls!

I mean, I totally agree Biden won, but the fact that people are still uncritically posting polls after what happened last Tuesday is pretty remarkable.

What's remarkable is that you're acting like the polls were off by more than 4-5 points on the average and that literally every poll that doesn't 100% confirm your existing view is now automatically wrong.

[Horus]

This is the second Rick Scott meme I've seen from you that'll give me nightmares. Please stop.

[gf20202]

https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1326312860918583296
Trump finally hits the number he used to need but actually needed more out of this drop and its basically the last of Pinal.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1326312860918583296
Trump finally hits the number he used to need but actually needed more out of this drop and its basically the last of Pinal.

Yeah, Trump is winning Pinal 58-40, so he needed to run well above that in this batch.